Kajiki, Dylan & Rain

By: Skyepony , 6:22 PM GMT on December 31, 2013

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Atlantic

East Pacific

West Pacific
02W KAJIKI


Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea

Southern Hemisphere
11P DYLAN


91S



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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

January 2013
24th-25th Plant Carrots, Turnips, Onions, Beets, Irish Potatoes, And Other Root Crops In The South. Lettuce, Cabbage, Collards And Other Leafy Vegetables Will Do Well. Start Seedbeds. Good Days For Transplanting.
30th-31st These Are Good Days To Do Any Plowing. Poor Days For Planting.
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Local Weather~
Cooler.


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Watching for rain & minimum temps..
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407. OrangeRoses
1:28 AM GMT on April 04, 2014
Princeton TX Tornado spotted 730pm


Good Night!
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 262 Comments: 628
406. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:27 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Skyepony has created a new entry.
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:10 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG
11:00 AM PhST February 1 2014
===================================

"BASYANG" has weakened into a tropical depression while approaching northern Palawan

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Basyang [KAJIKI] (1000 hPa) located at 11.3N 121.4E or 152 km southeast of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warnings #1

Luzon region
-------------
1. Romblon
2. Palawan
3. Calamian Group of Islands
4. southern part of Oriental Mindoro
5. southern part of Occidental Mindoro

Visayas region
---------------
1. Negros Occidental
2. Guimaras
3. Aklan
4. Capiz
5. Antique
6. Iloilo

Additional Information
========================
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-10 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "BASYANG" is expected to cross northern Palawan and will exit to the West Philippine Sea.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, eastern seaboard and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
404. Skyepony
2:50 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
CharlesImages out Snow Chasing.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
403. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:18 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
11:42 AM EST February 1 2014
================================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Edna, Category One (995 hPa) located at 20.2S 152.9E or 400 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 20.3S 153.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.9S 152.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 15.1S 153.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 16.4S 159.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MT and PT give 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on DT and Dvorak constraints. However, the Dvorak constraints have been ignored in this case considering the system has produced gale force winds at Marion Reef for around 3 hours earlier this morning and the AMSU-B 89GHz microwave image depicts a clear wrap of convection around the centre.

Tropical Cyclone Edna has rapidly developed this morning along the active monsoon trough in a low shear environment with warm surface temperatures of around 26-27 degrees. Edna is a midget system and is continuing to develop against the diurnal trend, so there is room for the system to further develop into a category 2 system. However, there is only a small window of opportunity for this continued development to occur as the system will begin to be impacted by increased wind shear tonight due to an upper trough over the Tasman Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Edna should continue to move in a southeast direction today under the influence of an upper low situated over Queensland, though should begin to be steered northwards on Sunday by the low level flow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
402. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:53 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KAJIKI (T1402)
9:00 AM JST February 1 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kajiki (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 122.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 13.0N 117.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS 14.0N 114.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS 14.6N 112.0E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
401. Skyepony
1:04 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Quoting 397. LakeWorthFinn:
{{{Skye}}} and friends!

The Chinese Year of the Horse begins tomorrow. Wear red and eat noodles but don't cut them before eating... gives good luck and long life.
Though with THIS COMING OUR WAY IN 2014, we don't even need luck - LOL!

And for tomorrow also: 3 x white wabbits :)


Thank you so much for all the good luck & the link!

Happy Prosperous
Green Wood Horse Year to You ALL
Galloping Ahead!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
400. Skyepony
12:59 AM GMT on February 01, 2014
Fresh ASCAT of the monster headed at the UK.. ~945mb.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
399. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:35 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM BASYANG
5:00 AM PhST February 1 2014
===================================

"BASYANG" has maintained its strength after crossing the Provinces of Negros and Guimaras and is now approaching the Southern part of Panay

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Basyang [KAJIKI] (997 hPa) located at 10.6N 122.4E or 20 km southwest of Iloilo City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
-------------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Group of Islands

Visayas region
-----------------
1. Aklan
2. Antique
3. Capiz
4. Iloilo
5. Guimaras
6. Negros Oriental
7. Negros Occidental
8. Cebu

Signal Warnings #1

Luzon region
-------------
1. Rest of Palawan
2. Occidental Mindoro
3. Oriental Mindoro
4. Romblon
5. Masbate

Visayas region
---------------
1. Bohol
2. Leyte
3. Camotes Island
4. Biliran Province
5. Siquijor

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Misamis Occidental
2. Zamboanga del Norte

Additional Information
========================
Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical storm "Basyang" is expected to cross Southern Panay, Northern Palawan and will exit to the West Philippine Sea.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, eastern seaboard and southern seaboards of southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 A.M. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
398. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:12 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 397. LakeWorthFinn:
{{{Skye}}} and friends!

The Chinese Year of the Horse begins tomorrow. Wear red and eat noodles but don't cut them before eating... gives good luck and long life.
Though with THIS COMING OUR WAY IN 2014, we don't even need luck - LOL!

And for tomorrow also: 3 x white wabbits :)


green wooden horse. or so I heard =)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
397. LakeWorthFinn
7:41 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
{{{Skye}}} and friends!

The Chinese Year of the Horse begins tomorrow. Wear red and eat noodles but don't cut them before eating... gives good luck and long life.
Though with THIS COMING OUR WAY IN 2014, we don't even need luck - LOL!

And for tomorrow also: 3 x white wabbits :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7198
396. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:20 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
PAGASA warning had Kajiki winds up to 45 knots just before the landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
395. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:18 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KAJIKI (T1402)
3:00 AM JST February 1 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Kajiki (1002 hPa) located at 10.8N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 12.0N 118.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS 13.9N 114.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS 14.2N 112.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
394. palmettobug53
6:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 391. Skyepony:
Kajiki on MIMIC..they are getting drowned again..Wow the colors..


Sure is. Look at that red/maroon.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 229 Comments: 24576
393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:29 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM BASYANG
11:00 PM PhST January 31 2014
===================================

"BASYANG" has slightly weakened and is now approaching Cebu

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Basyang [KAJIKI] (991 hPa) located at 10.0N 124.5E or vicinity of Ubay, Bohol has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Luzon region
-------------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2

Visayas region
-----------------
1. Aklan
2. Antique
3. Capiz
4. Iloilo
5. Guimaras
6. Negros Oriental
7. Negros Occidental
8. Siquijor
9. Cebu
10. Camotes Island
11. Bohol
12. Leyte
13. Southern Leyte
14. Biliran Province
15. Samar
16. Eastern Samar

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Dinagat Province
3. Surigao del Norte
4. Siargao Is.
5. Northern Part of Surigao del Sur
6. Northern Part of Agusan del Norte

Signal Warnings #1

Luzon region
-------------
1. Rest of Palawan
2. Occidental Mindoro
3. Oriental Mindoro
4. Romblon
5. Masbate
6. Ticao Island

Visayas region
---------------
1. Northern Samar

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Misamis Occidental
3. rest of Agusan del Norte
4. rest of Surigao del Sur
5. Agusan del Sur
6. Northern part of Bukidnon
7. Lanao del Norte
8. Zamboanga del Norte

Additional Information
========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical storm "Basyang" is expected to cross Cebu City, Negros Provinces, Guimaras, Southern Panay, Northern Palawan and will exit to the West Philippine Sea.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon and the eastern and southern seaboards of southern Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 A.M. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
392. Skyepony
3:47 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
GEOS-5 really blows that storm that is currently in the NW Pacific up across the South & parts of the Midwest in about 5 days & then up the NE..

The low in the Pacific to watch..


GEOS-5 dooming with it 5 days from now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
391. Skyepony
3:17 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Kajiki on MIMIC..they are getting drowned again..Wow the colors..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
390. Skyepony
1:51 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Been about 2.31" so far. Coming down heavier today.

I've had to dig out some of my winter/wet barn wear.

Should have planted more winter rye.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
389. StormTrackerScott
1:44 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 388. Skyepony:
Snow totals after the weekend according to WRF..Click pic for animation.



How much rain have you received the last couple of days? I said 3" to 5" of rain from this event and it appears to be panning out.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 933
388. Skyepony
1:36 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Snow depth after the weekend according to WRF..Click pic for animation.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
387. Skyepony
1:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Random recon picture..the eye of Typhoon Forrest (1983).

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
386. Skyepony
1:25 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
KAJIKI Aqua pass..


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
385. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:33 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
A tropical low, 1000 hPa, was located near the west coast of the Top End, about 60 km north of Wadeye at 9:30 am CST on Friday 31 January. The low is expected to remain near the west coast during today before moving east across the Top End and into the Gulf of Carpentaria during the following few days. This low unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone. An active monsoon trough will persist over the Top End and Gulf of Carpentaria into next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low

Another tropical low is expected to form in the Western Region off the west Kimberley coast later today. This low will most likely move east towards the northwest Kimberley and, if the low takes a more northerly track than expected, it could enter the Northern Region late on Sunday or during Monday, with a moderate risk of a tropical cyclone affecting the north Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
384. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:06 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KAJIKI (T1402)
9:00 AM JST January 31 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kajiki (1000 hPa) located at 10.1N 130.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 11.1N 124.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
48 HRS 12.4N 119.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS 13.7N 116.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
383. Skyepony
7:08 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
92W has fired up & looks to be headed for an area of the Philippines that don't need this.. Looks like alot more rain on the wind. Here's the expected winds from gfs..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
382. Skyepony
6:40 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
GFS Loop of expected precipitation types for a week out or so..

CA may have a chance of rain through the weekend, then it dries as the North half of the country has scattered snow & the southern half rain. Toward the end of next week there is a chance of another southern winter event. Basically if your winter supplies are running low & you catch a break in the weather, stock up.. more is coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
381. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:44 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
2:00 AM EST January 31 2014
================================================

At 1:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 19.4S 148.5E or 75 km north northeast of Bowen and 185 km east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is now moving on a southerly track and is expected to cross the coast in the Bowen region this morning between 4 and 7am.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Townsville and St Lawrence this morning extending to adjacent inland areas later this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 140 km/h are possible for a brief period in coastal areas south of the centre as the cyclone makes landfall.

Winds are expected to ease rapidly by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide this morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living i n areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected in remaining parts of the coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide this morning which may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Townsville to St Lawrence, extending to adjacent inland areas including Collinsville
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
380. Skyepony
2:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Here is a much better pic of that TDRS-L launch last week..



The stars aligned to present United Launch Alliance with perfect weather conditions to launch NASA’s next Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS-L) last Thursday, Jan. 23—the 12th in the space agency’s fleet of TDRS spacecraft. After a minor delay due to a telemetry issue associated with its primary payload, ULA’s Atlas-V rocket lit up Florida’s Space Coast for miles around, thundering out of Space Launch Complex-41 and putting on a fantastic fireworks show under a crystal clear, star-filled sky. More great pics of it here..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
379. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
11:08 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 11:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 18.9S 148.2E or 125 km north of Bowen and 155 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots towards the coast.

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
220 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are possible in coastal areas near the center.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 20.4S 147.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 21.7S 145.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 23.1S 141.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has developed during the day - the max wind estimate of 55 knots based on Flinders Reef observations between 0700-1000 UTC north the of center. There is evidence of some easterly shear with convection largely constrained to the western flank limiting the extent of curvature. Dvorak estimates remain lower at -3.0 based on curved band of 0.6 wrap.

Landfall is expected within 12 hours and the system should weaken quickly thereafter although a convergent band to the south of the center may cause severe gusts and heavy rainfall that could extend well inland during the day. A separate severe weather warning has been issued to that effect.

Astronomical tides are close to the highest yearly tides, thus increasing the vulnerability to any storm surge. Based on the current track the cyclone should cross a few hours before the expected high tide but nevertheless inundation remains an ongoing concern as the southeasterly flow is already causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
378. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG
5:00 PM PhST January 30 2014
===================================

The Tropical Depression east of Mindanao is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is named "BASYANG"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Basyang (1004 hPa) located at 8.6N 136.4E or 1,108 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warnings #1

Visayas region
---------------
1. Southern Leyte

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces late Friday evening or early Saturday morning.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas due to Tropical Depression "Basyang" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:48 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
4:57 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category One (980 hPa) located at 18.1S 148.3E or 205 km northeast of Townsville and 260 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots towards the coast.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and further intensify before crossing the Queensland coast between Townsville and Bowen in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence during the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning with DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 19.6S 147.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 20.8S 145.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 22.0S 141.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.1S 136.4E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
The system is continuing to transition from a monsoon depression into a more classical tropical cyclone structure, with convecting banding continuing to develop and tighten on the western and southern flanks. Surface observations and scatterometry show strong gales wrapping considerably around the system. Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the center during the past three hours with curvature increasing at -0.7 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis of 3.0

Vertical wind shear remains weak with strong outflow to the south associated with a jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. the environment appears conjucive to further intensification up until landfall.

the main steering influence should remain the sub-tropical ridge to the system, and this should maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters on top of the predicted tides along parts of the Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
376. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:23 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
The Low Pressure Area east of Mindanao outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility has developed into a tropical depression.

At 10:00 a.m. today, the center of tropical depression was estimated at 1,140 km east of Mindanao (8.2°N, 137.8°E). This weather system will not yet affect any part of the country. However, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or evening.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
375. Skyepony
5:11 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
GMO crops are causing Monarch butterfly numbers to drop, migration may disappear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
374. Skyepony
4:41 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
That swirl looks pretty impressive.. yay shear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
ya it's a good thing it's having trouble.

2014JAN30 033200 1.5 1003.0 +0.0 25.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.91 16.88 SHEAR
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
372. Skyepony
4:35 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Reposting a more current 92W. Looks like the original low ran off as a new one formed. Now it's waltzed out from under the clouds too. Click pic for loop.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:35 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
12:00 PM JST January 30 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.5N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.6N 131.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
370. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:32 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
named Dylan by BOM

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
1:49 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category One (987 hPa) located at 17.8S 148.4E or 235 km northeast of Townsville and 290 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and gradually intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
369. Skyepony
4:30 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Busterpony has been hating this front. He acted like a ice storm was going to tear down the barn. Dried the ponies off as the sun went down & locked them in the barn. Buster would stand out in this. But recently clipped he's not allowed. Just took them out water & more hay. Happy & calm now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
368. Skyepony
3:48 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 361. RobDaHood:
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I know what you mean.

And yes, the sky kinda reminds me of Pennsylvania now that you mention it.

Been training on me here! 0.96" so far.

Quoting 367. palmettobug53:
Kinda neat, watching all those cyclones and hurricanes zipping around. She also posted it in Dr. M's blog tonight. You'd have to dig back thru the comments. One is 8 minutes long; the other, 1 minute or so.

Saw those. I was neat. Shows how things pulse up & down..

Hades~ glad to see 92W taking some shear..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
367. palmettobug53
2:04 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Kinda neat, watching all those cyclones and hurricanes zipping around. She also posted it in Dr. M's blog tonight. You'd have to dig back thru the comments. One is 8 minutes long; the other, 1 minute or so.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 229 Comments: 24576
366. palmettobug53
2:03 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
There's an interesting time-lapsed video on Barbamz blog, in her comments. It shows a world view of satellite images for 2013.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 229 Comments: 24576
365. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:00 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
shear problem

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
9:00 AM JST January 30 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.4N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.5N 132.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
364. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:59 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Almost named Dylan..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL LOW 07U
11:03 AM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 10:00 AM EST, a Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 17.5S 148.5E or 265 km northeast of Townsville and 325 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwest direction and develop before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine on Friday morning.

The low and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence, and particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during today with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 18.7S 148.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.2S 146.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 21.5S 142.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 22.9S 138.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is continuing to transition into a more classical tropical cyclone structure, with convecting banding continuing to develop on the western and southern flanks. Surface observations and scatterometry show gales in the northwest monsoonal flow to the north and in the SE flow to the south. Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the center during the past three hours with curvature increasing at -0.55 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis of 2.5.

Vertical wind shear is low with strong outflow to the south associated with a jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. With gales evident in different sectors, forecasting cyclone intensity is somewhat problematic as models generally persist with a broad system through to landfall. Being such a broad system means that rapid intensification is not likely even though models are generally consistent in developing a more symmetric and vertically stacked system prior to landfall.

Enhanced low to mid-level northerly flow to the east of the system associated with the monsoon and a ridge building in the southern Coral sea should allow the system to maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters on top of the predicted tides along parts of the Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
363. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:58 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST January 30 2014
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1000 hPa) located at 23.3S 178.9E is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization is poor. Deep convection detached from low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with some intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
362. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:09 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL LOW 07U
7:47 AM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 7:00 AM EST, a Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 17.5S 148.7E or 280 km northeast of Townsville and 325 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwest direction and develop before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine on Friday morning.

The low and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence, and particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during today with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and Mackay, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda and also between Mackay and St Lawrence, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
361. RobDaHood
9:33 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I know what you mean.

And yes, the sky kinda reminds me of Pennsylvania now that you mention it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30627
360. Skyepony
9:11 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Enjoying the rain.. It's a sleepy rain though.

Looks like it's sleeting/snowing aloft, the way the clouds look.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
359. RobDaHood
8:59 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Drip, drip, drip...

Soggy afternoon. We needed it though.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30627
358. Skyepony
7:54 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
357. Skyepony
5:03 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 39 ft
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Humidity: 70%
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Elevation: 2540 ft
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Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
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Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
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