90L / Plant Something

By: Skyepony , 1:03 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
In November the planting frenzy continues for all the state of Florida, heaviest for South FL planting some summer & most winter varieties still. Harvest should be picking up too with a mix of some early winter & late summer. The cooler summer has snow peas coming up early. It's a good month for local diverse veggie eating. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, kale, Kohlrabi, Mustard, onions, radish. Last month to plant~ spinach, strawberry & collards.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish. Last month to plant spinach, strawberry & turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, potatoes, radish, spinach, tomato, turnips. Last month to plant strawberry.

November 2013
28th-29th Favorable Days For Planting Root Crops. Fine For Sowing Grains, Hay, And Forage Crops. Plant Flowers.
30th Plant Carrots, Beets, Onions, Turnips, Irish Potatoes, And Other Root Crops In The South. Lettuce, Cabbage, Collards And Other Leafy Vegetables Will Do Well. Start Seedbeds. Good Day For Transplanting.
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Happy Thanksgiving (Skyepony)
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Not sure if Puff the Royal Palm Turkey knows how lucky he is. Henna (his hen) ran out of the picture a moment before this was snapped, as a hawk flew over. She has been pardoned for T-day too.
Happy Thanksgiving

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275. Skyepony
10:37 PM GMT on December 03, 2013
T-4 min
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
274. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:40 AM GMT on December 01, 2013
Skyepony has created a new entry.
273. Skyepony
5:11 AM GMT on December 01, 2013
Here's where MLB NWS posted on Facebook about that chaff last night. They did it again around the cape again tonight, near the same time, maybe a little later.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
272. Skyepony
5:06 AM GMT on December 01, 2013
Bug~ That is pretty much how I do it. Not always the stems, depending on plant maturity. Almost always corn bread with ham hock or something. Sometimes frybread (with beef). Kids like it if I add pasta.. I should try the scented candle:)


crab~ I've been growing Malabar Spinach for nearly 10 years. It's naturalized out in the south garden where it comes back every summer along a trellis. The way it seeds, it can get out of hand. Especially in warmer climates.

Do you have Yellow Passionfruit growing there?


Plap~ I feel for you homeless snowbirds. I already help out one that flocks from Alaska every winter.


Hades~ Interesting storm. See some new invests.


Finn~ Good to see you two having a nice Thanksgiving.

That was my best cooked turkey ever. That TeePee behind puff in the pic was wrapped with a tarp to make the smoker.

Been nice weather for playing with the ponies..


ylee~ I heard they took it back to a building.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
271. Ylee
4:08 PM GMT on November 30, 2013
"We called manual abort. Better to be paranoid and wrong. Bringing rocket down to borescope engines" ...
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 28, 2013


Sounds like a long delay.... :(
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 98 Comments: 16622
270. LakeWorthFinn
7:06 AM GMT on November 30, 2013
Beautiful Puff!
Did your smoked turkey taste as good as it smelled?
Hubby was going to cook, but was discouraged by my lack of enthusiasm to eat turkey, so we ended up getting a takeaway from Cracker Barrel... he got his traditional turkey dinner and I got a steak - how peaceful it was to be at home just the two of us and the pups :)

Fabulous temps!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
269. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:14 AM GMT on November 30, 2013
Quoting 265. Skyepony:
Lehar is gone. Nice that turned out to be much less than expected. Saw a graphic..looked like it tapped & got took out by a mass of smog.


the fake eye near the landfall was interesting to look at on the satellite.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
268. plapman
1:59 AM GMT on November 30, 2013
Good evening Skeypony.
Still more snow on the Northern Edge of the prairie.
It's just about time to make my offer to the southern WU bloggers. All the snow I can pack in a suitcase for their Christmas for just a return trip ticket to their residence.
Enjoy the evening.
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 2493 Comments: 7380
267. hurricanecrab
1:06 AM GMT on November 30, 2013
Heya Skye,

Our new favorite thing to grow and eat -- Malabar spinach.

As it turns out, it's not really a 'spinach' at all, despite looking and tasting somewhat like it. Sauted in some olive or coconut oil with garlic and onions -- wonderful. Great in salads -- real earthy flavor, peppery even.

It's high in vitamin A, C, calcium and iron. Lots of fiber. Said to contain phenolic phytochemicals and antioxidents.

Slow starter, but once it gets its vines going, WHOA! Vines like crazy and brachiates from those vines. Pick the leaves and more will grow. Loves to run on the ground or on a support. Loves the heat, tolerates being ignored for days at a time without complaint except for some unintelligible muttering.

Best of all -- the soldier crabs and wild chickens don't eat it! weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Congrats to you and Puff N' Stuff! That's a fine looking turkey. The way he's kind of quarter posed looks like he might think he's the Right Said Fred of poultry. I'm too sexy for my snood, too sexy for my snood, so glad I'm not food...


Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9242
266. palmettobug53
9:12 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Hey, Skye. I've been told I make a mean pot of collards. Hubby won't eat them, though, so I don't get a chance to cook them often. Mainly when there's a covered dish dinner going on somewhere.

I think the trick is using smoked neckbones vs plain ham. You can use either pork or turkey - depending on how healthy you want to be! I cook them with some onion in just enough water to cover, for about an hour. Then I add the collards and increase the liquid with chicken broth. Don't forget a dash or two of red pepper flakes and just a pinch or so of sugar. Salt, as desired. I let the collards, themselves, cook for at least 45 minutes, stirring and turning occasionally.

I also include most of the stems, cut into inch long pieces, whereas a lot of folks discard them. Put stem pieces in first, while you chop the leaves, so they'll cook well.

Be sure to have some cornbread and either hot sauce or pepper vinegar to sprinkle on the collards. They're just not the same without a little kick.

Then, light a scented candle to get rid of the smell. You can always tell when someone has been cooking collards or cabbage! It was the first thing that hit me when we got home yesterday. Collard stink. lol
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 239 Comments: 25426
265. Skyepony
3:39 PM GMT on November 29, 2013
Lehar is gone. Nice that turned out to be much less than expected. Saw a graphic..looked like it tapped & got took out by a mass of smog.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
264. Skyepony
1:04 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Fresh Cloudsat of 90L. It doesn't have much height.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
263. Skyepony
12:14 AM GMT on November 29, 2013
Launch scrubbed in the last minute. I was out there with my camera.

90L is new & out in the Central Atlantic.

Nice Aqua pass of 90L earlier.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
262. whitewabit (Mod)
11:46 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
Quoting 260. Skyepony:
Happy Spacegiving Everyone! Puff N Stuff won an AC:) (yeah they got names) I'll hang his pic..


Here is the link to the SpaceX launch.


Aborted with 48seconds left in the count ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32537
261. GardenGrrl
11:07 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
Happy Thanks Giving!

Btw, that was a very handsome turkey. :)
Member Since: March 25, 2007 Posts: 260 Comments: 10020
260. Skyepony
11:01 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
Happy Spacegiving Everyone! Puff N Stuff won an AC:) (yeah they got names) I'll hang his pic..


Here is the link to the SpaceX launch.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
259. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:29 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving, Skye
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
258. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:19 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
DEPRESSION, FORMER TC LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
14:30 PM IST November 28 2013
=====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, the deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward, weakened into a depression and crossed Andhra Pradesh coast near 15.9N 81.1E (close to south of Machillipatnam) at around 8:30 AM UTC (14:00 PM IST). The system now lays center over Andhra Pradesh coast near 15.9N 81.0E.

It would move west northwestwards and weaken further into a well marked low pressure area during next 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
257. palmettobug53
1:05 PM GMT on November 28, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving, Skye. I hope you have an enjoyable day.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 239 Comments: 25426
256. Skyepony
9:27 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Philippines blob..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
255. Skyepony
9:15 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Finn~ Down to 40.3 now.. Heat on here. Smokin a turkey. If it tastes 1/2 as good as I smell..:)

That is from a WUnderwebcam. Their PWS info is embeded into it. Pretty neat.

Lehar
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
254. LakeWorthFinn
7:12 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
The icon in your comment 242.
49F outside, heating on... going under cover ;)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
253. Skyepony
1:32 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Quoting 251. whitewabit:


hot right out of the oven .. those are my downfall ..

Yeah, no willpower against that.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
252. Skyepony
1:31 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Thought Lehar had a chance to maintain in the night..it did not. Luckily some dry air is taking the punch out of the rain as well.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
251. whitewabit (Mod)
1:24 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Quoting 250. Skyepony:

Haha~ You better stay away from that!

We'll see if there is any cookies left after tomorrow.. Can't believe I just ate four.


hot right out of the oven .. those are my downfall ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32537
250. Skyepony
1:23 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Quoting 249. whitewabit:


that sounds good .. I'll take a couple of dozen .. you got my address ..

Beautiful Chocolate Pie sitting on the counter I have been told to say away from ..

Haha~ You better stay away from that!

We'll see if there is any cookies left after tomorrow.. Can't believe I just ate four.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
249. whitewabit (Mod)
1:21 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Quoting 248. Skyepony:
Hey Everyone..Happy Thanksgiving! Wish you all could taste some of these pumpkin cookies. In a cooking frenzy..

Expected to see that blob near the Philippines as an invest. GEOS-5 almost makes it a depression.

Interesting, the front tail in the Caribbean. Models don't do much with the latter but dump rain on Central America.


Finn~ Which weather icon that updates? There is too many to count on this page:)


that sounds good .. I'll take a couple of dozen .. you got my address ..

Beautiful Chocolate Pie sitting on the counter I have been told to say away from ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32537
248. Skyepony
1:14 AM GMT on November 28, 2013
Hey Everyone..Happy Thanksgiving! Wish you all could taste some of these pumpkin cookies. In a cooking frenzy..

Expected to see that blob near the Philippines as an invest. GEOS-5 almost makes it a depression.

Interesting, the front tail in the Caribbean. Models don't do much with the latter but dump rain on Central America.


Finn~ Which weather icon that updates? There is too many to count on this page:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
247. Proserpina
11:56 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Mimi photo 016mimiThanksgiving_zpsb92eacd3.jpg
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 178 Comments: 18460
246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:21 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
India got really lucky with this system. 90-100 knots forecast landfall down to 35-40 knots now.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
2:30 AM IST November 28 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Message)

At 21:00 PM UTC, the cyclonic storm LEHAR over west central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 15.0N 83.5E, about 280 km east southeast of Machillipatnam and 250 km south southeast of Kakinada.

It would move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam as a cyclonic
storm around the afternoon hours, today.

According to satellite imagery, the current Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 17.5N and west of 84.0E. Convection has further decreased during past three hours with respect to its organization and intensity. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -60C. The latest scatterometry observations and buoys also indicate weakening in the wind field.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 16.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has further decreased during past six hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (15-20 knots). The cyclone has entered into a relatively colder sea area, also there is entrainment of dry and cold air from India into the periphery of the cyclone field. Under these circumstances, the system shows degeneration in intensity. As the system is expected to move over the colder area further nearer to the coast and there is possibility of increase in vertical wind shear and entraining dry and cold air, the system would weaken gradually. Due to strengthening of the upper level ridge to the north of the system, the northerly component of the movement is expected to increase during next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 16.1N 81.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 17.2N 79.6E - 25 knots (Depression)

Storm Surge Guidance
=========================
Storm surge of height about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, and Krishna districts of Andhra.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
245. BriarCraft
10:40 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Member Since: June 21, 2004 Posts: 88 Comments: 4444
244. Ylee
8:39 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving, Skye! Surprised to see the snow that far south, even the mountains. Mt. Leconte only got 2" of snow(and 3.45" of rain!) yesterday. I'll have to go see if Bogon got any snow!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 98 Comments: 16622
243. LakeWorthFinn
8:17 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Temps falling... we need blankies tonight, niiice...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO EVERYONE! I don't know about others, but I sure have a LOT to thank for :)

Where did you get that neat weather icon that updates by itself?
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
242. Skyepony
3:13 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Quoting 228. whitewabit:


ice can cause a lot of tree damage if they are still leafed out ..

Ice Storms .. Mother natures way to trim trees !!

& it did.. I can see The Gash from the Forge Mt cam again.. Dusting of snow up there this morning.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
241. Skyepony
2:32 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Looks like Lehar didn't directly hit that warm pool. It's a little off to the north of forecast. I like those more northern models tracks. Does look much weaker. Good for India.. I'll lower that to 45-55kts at landfall. Surge from the ocean & flooding rains could both be factors. Those seas don't weaken as fast as the storm.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
240. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:19 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Lehar looks horrible (weakened) on satellite now.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
14:30 PM IST November 27 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Message)

At 9:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over west central and adjoining southern Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 14.0N 85.5E, about 520 km east southeast of Machillipatnam and 470 km southeast of Kakinada.

It would move west northwestwards, weaken gradually and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam as a cyclonic storm around Thursday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the current Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 17.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E. Convection has decreased rapidly during past three hours with respect to its organization and intensity. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -65C. The latest scaterrometry observations also indicate weakening in the wind field.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has significantly decreased during past six hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has also increased marginally becoming moderate (15-20 knots). The cyclone has entered into a relatively colder sea area, also there is entrainment of dry and cold air from India into the periphery of the cyclone field. Under these circumstances, the very severe cyclone shows degeneration in intensity. As the system is expected to move over the colder area further nearer to the coast and there is possibility of increase in vertical wind shear and entraining dry and cold air, the system would weaken gradually. Due to strengthening of the upper level ridge to the north of the system, the northerly component of the movement is expected to increase during next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 15.0N 83.8E - 50-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.1N 81.6E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 18.7N 77.6E - Low Pressure Area

Storm Surge Guidance
=========================
Storm surge of height about 1.0-2.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Guntur and Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
239. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:19 PM GMT on November 27, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALESSIA, CATEGORY ONE (01U)
10:59 PM CST November 27 2013
==========================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alessia. Category One (991 hPa) located at 16.2S 137.5E or 130 km east of Borroloola and 190 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as south southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

GALES with gusts to 50 knots are currently being experienced along the Northern Territory coast between Port Roper and the Queensland Border. Gales may extend east to Mornington Island in Queensland, and possibly further to Burketown on Friday if Tropical Cyclone Alessia take a more easterly track.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Port McArthur and Mornington Island.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low lying areas in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal areas in Queensland Gulf Country west of Mornington Island.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Port Roper to the Northern Territory/Queensland border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. Public shelters are not open at this time.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.6S 137.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.2S 136.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 17.0S 137.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.4S 135.9E - 20 knots(Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Alessia is currently located on the coast over southern Gulf of Carpentaria. Central position estimate and speed of movement are based on previous location on radar and the increase in westerly component of surface winds at Borroloola, Center Island and McArthur River Mine. Gales were observed at Center Island between 5:30 and 10:30 am this morning with maximum gusts reaching 57 knots [105 km/h]. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that the area of gales was confined to the southeast sector of the tropical low. However, all passes today have missed the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

At 1200 UTC Dvorak analysis yielded DT=3.0 based on MET. Cloud features exhibit no curvature and is starting to show signs of shear from the west. Based on Mornington Island Radar the surface center appears to have crossed the coast near Wollogorang while the middle level circulation appears to continue towards the southeast on satellite. This is consistent with the system experiencing shear from the west. No significant dry air is evident on the Water Vapor imagery in the vicinity of the system.

Models vary in the strength of the shear with the GFS models the only ones keen on maintaining a southeast trend, all other models indicated southwest movement from 0000Z. Despite this, there is general consensus of slow movement over the next 24 hours or so.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Port Roper to Mornington Island

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Mornington Island to Burketown

The Cyclone WATCH from Burketown to Karumba has been cancelled
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:20 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALESSIA, CATEGORY ONE (01U)
5:00 PM CST November 27 2013
==========================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alessia. Category One (993 hPa) located at 15.9S 137.6E or 140 km east of Borroloola and 185 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as east southeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

GALES with gusts to 60 knots are currently being experienced along the Northern Territory coast between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border. Gales are expected to extend east to Mornington Island in Queensland tonight and possibly further to Kurumba early on Thursday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Port McArthur and Karumba tonight and tomorrow.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause localized flooding in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal areas in Queensland Gulf Country west of Mornington Island during today and Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.3S 138.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.4S 138.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.6S 138.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.8S 138.4E - 30 knots(Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Alessia has reformed near the coast over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. Recent central position estimates and speed of movement are good based on tightly curved spiral bands evident on Mornington Island radar data.

Gales were observed at Centre Island between 5:30 and 10:30 am this morning with maximum gusts reaching 57 knots [105 km/h]. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that the area of gales was confined to the southeast sector of the tropical low. However, all passes today have missed the southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

At 0600 UTC Dvorak analysis vielded DT=3.0/3.0 based on an 0.6 wrap curved band on visible imagery. FT based on MET and DT.

The environment is currently favorable with low vertical wind shear, deep moisture and good outflow in the eastern semicircle. The Tropical Cyclone is located in a break in the 500 hPa ridge and is moving ESE with the peripheral ridge to the NE the dominant mechanism for the short term. It is expected to remain on this track, moving parallel to the coast for the next one to two days before slowing and then moving west, moving inland over the Gulf Country on Friday as the ridge to the NE weakens and a ridge building over central Australia becomes the main steering influence. Intensity is currently held at category 1 due to the restraining influence of nearby land and a gradual increase in vertical wind shear during the forecast period.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Port Roper in the Northern Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Mornington Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
237. Skyepony
6:34 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
236. Skyepony
6:27 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:31 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALESSIA, CATEGORY ONE (01U)
2:28 PM CST November 27 2013
==========================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alessia, Category One (996 hPa) located at 15.7S 137.3E or 115 km east northeast of Borroloola and 230 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The low is reported as slowly southeast at 5 knots parallel to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Alessia has re-developed into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 60 knots are currently being experienced along the Northern Territory coast between Port McArthur and the Queensland Border. Gales are expected to extend east to Mornington Island in Queensland tonight and possibly further to Kurumba early on Thursday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Port McArthur and Karumba tonight and tomorrow.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause localised flooding in the Roper-McArthur District and coastal areas in Queensland Gulf Country west of Mornington Island during today and Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Port Roper in the Northern Territory to Karumba, including Mornington Island in Queensland.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
234. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
reduced forecast intensity as expected for increasing shear and colder sea surface temperatures

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
5:30 AM IST November 27 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Message)

At 0:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 13.5N 87.0E, about 650 km west northwest of Port Blair, 700 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 640 km east southeast of Kakinada and 620 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further and move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam around Thursday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 11.0N to 16.5N and82.5E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -88C. Convection has increased over south of the system.The central dense overcast pattern persists.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the center. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 982 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.2N 84.8E - 80-85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.2N 82.6E - 80-85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 17.6N 78.8E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Storm Surge Guidance
========================
Storm surge of height about 2.0-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Guntur and Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry and about 1 metre near Visakhapatnam district at the time of landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
233. Skyepony
1:47 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Yeah I was looking at the dorvak (which is still a flat lined there) & where the models had last initiated when I said 65kts. It still has got that big blob of heavy rain look more than a raging spinning storm. It has a pool of warmer water just in front of it. It might clear out an eye soon.

Originally I had 90-95kts, something like that. Just seemed slower to spin up. Hampered by shear a bit.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
232. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:28 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
75 knots from IMD.. forecast to be about 95 knots in a 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:27 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
2:30 AM IST November 27 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Message)

At 21:00 PM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and now lays center near 13.2N 87.5E, about 590 km west northwest of Port Blair, 760 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 700 km east southeast of Kakinada and 670 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further and move west-northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 16.0N and 84.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -93C. Convection has increased over south of the system.The central dense overcast pattern persists.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR is 982 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past six hrs and are favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased to 5-10 knot (low) during past six hours which is favorable for further intensification. The Madden Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 4 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden Jullian oscillation would continue in phase 4 during next 5 days with amplitude less than 1. These are supportive for intensification.

Under the influence of upper level anticyclonic circulation the cyclone has tracked more west northwestward. The system would move west northwestwards for next 12 hours and after that the northerly component may increase and the direction of movement would gradually shift from west northwest to slight northwest

As the system would come nearer to November 28th close to Andhra Pradesh, it would experience colder sea surface temperatures and also there is a possibility of increased wind shear. All these may lead to slight weakening of the system before landfall and rapid weakening after the landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 14.0N 86.0E - 80-85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 15.0N 83.9E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 17.1N 80.1E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 19.5N 78.2E - Low Pressure Area

Storm Surge Guidance
=====================
Storm surge of height about 2.0-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Vishakhapatnam and Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47115
230. Skyepony
1:17 AM GMT on November 27, 2013
Just had a little mesocyclone through here & Palm Bay. Many times the places that get the break out storms along the coast in front of a front get slammed harder than the rest. It made it to 85.8ºF today. Glad this has the limiting factor of coming through after dark and the upper winds aren't feeding it too much. Hear a little thunder.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
229. Skyepony
8:26 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
Lehar.. I'll got 80kts for a peak at best (outside chance it stays ~65kts, it's struggled to get past this stage in development) & 65kts at landfall..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
228. whitewabit (Mod)
6:37 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
Quoting 227. Skyepony:
WNC had 1/4inch of ice in several areas already. Little Switzerland winning so far with .3in. Ice was being reported as far south as Greenville, SC this morning. Trees iced, some down, some car accidents.


ice can cause a lot of tree damage if they are still leafed out ..

Ice Storms .. Mother natures way to trim trees !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32537
227. Skyepony
6:24 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
WNC had 1/4inch of ice in several areas already. Little Switzerland winning so far with .3in. Ice was being reported as far south as Greenville, SC this morning. Trees iced, some down, some car accidents.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
226. Skyepony
6:13 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469
225. Skyepony
5:59 PM GMT on November 26, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39469

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