Tropics & What Not

By: Skyepony , 6:25 PM GMT on January 01, 2013

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
99S

98P


13S FELLENG




A site to check out storms.
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

24th-26th Favorable Planting Days: First Two Days Are Best For Planting Aboveground Crops. Especially Good For Peas, Beans, Cucumber, And Squash. Last Day Is A Most Fruitful Time To Plant Beets, Carrots, Onions, And Other Hardy Root Crops. Also Good For Transplanting.
27th-30th A Barren Time. Best For Killing Weeds, Briars, Poison Ivy, And Other Plant Pests. Clear Woodlots And Fencerows.
31st Favorable Day For Planting Root Crops. Fine For Sowing Grains, Hay, And Forage Crops. Plant Flowers.
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Sudden heavy rains caused flooding in low lying areas in the Sylva, NC area.
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It would skew the readings on the weather stations but would be totally worth it..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
We still have some room on the roof...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
Locals~ Watch the rips, shark & the fire danger..


Aqua~ Shark tracker is neat, added it to the recommended links on the right.

That ball was so big it wouldn't fit in your front yard. I was startled by how big it is. Way bigger than looks.


RTLSNK~ Thanks so much.. I can't take full credit for this. I'd like to thank Matt Damon for taking on the frackers. Darth Vader for being for being such a sith lord, all the protesters risking their freedom for a cleaner environment & Jeff Masters for pouring a little more flammables on the climate debate yesterday...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Shark Name: Mary Lee

Species: Carcharodon carcharias

Gender: Female

Stage of Life: Mature

Length: 16 ft.

Weight: 3456 lbs.

Tag Date: 17 September 2012

Tag Location: Cape Cod


ok, so I was a little off on the weight.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
happy orchids to blu, and snuggles to wab

we had two GPS-tagged great whites in our area. They are headed south, slowly. Fla East Coasters consider keeping outta the water for now....

OCEARCH Global Tracking Central

That's a link for tracking MaryLee, who last year, weighed over 1500 lbs. Right now she's hanging around near here. All of our surfers are staying outta the water.

If they need a place to keep the radar ball, they can put it in my front yard.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
Snake tiptoes in at 0344 AM, leaves "Seal of Approval"
award with Skyepony's name on it for funniest post of
the year for her post # 179 on the Doc's Blog, then
Snake tiptoes back out and goes back to the horizontal.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OR~ I did take it. They had a busy day there today.

Wab~ It may have been 2 1/2 weeks. They were working amazing fast considering the task. They had a worthy looking crane.


The GA loop eddy it's extra weird cause it's a loop eddy with lower hieght, the loop wrapped around a bit of cold water.

The normal pretty ribbon of a gulf stream is a mess too.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Did you take that radar ball photo Skye? At first glance I thought it was something from Area 51!

Also we might get some rain tonight after midnite and then much more Wed and Thur too. A visiting storm from Mexico travelling 600 miles just to see us! There was also more I don't see south of the Rio Grande creeping toward the Gulf of Mexico, according to the NWS Hazardous Outlook and FFW . If you want to laff-a-bit check my forecast in my blog in the Orange Roses Forecast section.
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44. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
It's gonna be another 2 weeks or so.


That is really pretty fast .. how long will they test it before certifying it again ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
It's gonna be another 2 weeks or so.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
42. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's the Melbourne, FL NWS Duel-pol radar ball sitting in the parking lot. It is so huge. Way bigger looking then sitting on it's tower. That is the building on the left. Tower getting rebuilt & higher on the right. They already redid the foundation for higher winds. They were reassembling the old tower then adding a section to get it higher than the new hanger being built right next to it at the airport. I think the ball will only be down til Thursday. They got it down this morning. Click on the pic to see the series.



When will they have the radar back up and running ??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31392
Here's the Melbourne, FL NWS Duel-pol radar ball sitting in the parking lot. It is so huge. Way bigger looking then sitting on it's tower. That is the building on the left. Tower getting rebuilt & higher on the right. They already redid the foundation for higher winds. They were reassembling the old tower then adding a section to get it higher than the new hanger being built right next to it at the airport. I think the ball will only be down til Thursday. They got it down this morning. Click on the pic to see the series.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
3:08 AM CST January 9 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (984 hPa) was located near 12.5S 117.0E or 830 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 116.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.3S 116.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.9S 115.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.4S 113.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1406 UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A central dense overcast has formed with a convective burst over the LLCC. Peripheral banding in southwest sector, good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded center pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good ASCAT pass.

The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
9:08 PM CST January 8 2012
=========================================

At 8:00 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (987 hPa) was located near 12.3S 117.4E or 820 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24H RS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 116.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.5S 116.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.9S 115.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.5S 113.7E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1032UTC infrared satellite image. Curvature of convective bands has improved, giving a 0.8 wrap. Dvorak analysis DT=3.5. MET=3.0. FT based on PAT=3.5. The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear.

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate for 72 hours, reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia, before weakening in the longer term as the system moves over cooler waters.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
08S ~ I should capture that image..looks like an embryo of a storm monster.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY ONE (05U)
2:06 PM CST January 8 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (995 hPa) was located near 11.9S 118.4E or 790 km north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.1S 117.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.7S 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.0S 115.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5S 114.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 0432 UTC infrared and visible satellite image animation. Curvature of convective bands has improved, giving a 0.75 wrap. Exposed low level cloud lines evident on eastern flank of CDO indicate system is still affected by weak shear. Dvorak analysis DT=3.0 based on curved band, MET=PAT=3.0. FT based on DT. Northeast vertical wind shear is reducing as the system becomes more organized.

The environment is favourable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate for 72 hours, reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia, before weakening in the longer term as the system moves over cooler waters.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F
9:00 AM FST January 8 2013
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbane 07F (1003 hPa) located near 14.9S 156.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor and convection has not increased much near the center of the system. The system lies downstream of an upper cut-off low with strong divergence aloft in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southward with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Lots of chaff over SFL tonight. All the wispy green & yellow.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Updated the entry. I see 05U for 98S. NAVY hadn't called it just looked & they have now.. 08S.

Our sprinkles are less & less. Decent rain yesterday. PWS has 0" & 0.01 from the day before. A spider may have moved in.

Warm week ahead. Lower 80s. The winter rye looked nice after the rain. Heat will stunt what's not in shade.

Picked up some 9 packs of lettuce, Kale, leeks, asparagus, red chicory. North garden has been doing nicely. The broccoli was done. Much of the south garden is still in shambles from the summer or over run with passionfruit.

Which I'm now only getting about a 1/2 gallon a day off. I've been trading gallons away of it. For about a month I was getting ~3 gallons a day of them. Even three weeks ago it was closer to 1 gallon a day. If we don't get a freeze & no one takes a machete to it (almost think the latter has a better chance to happen) it could get really out of hand.


OSHNBLU~ So good to see you & with happy orchids:)

It's been a winter to remember. Excellent riding weather.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 05U
3:00 AM CST January 8 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) was located near 11.8S 120.0E or 730 km north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.3S 118.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.4S 117.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.8S 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 16.3S 115.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1204 PM UTC microwave and infrared satellite image animation. Improved curvature in convective bands in western semicircle. Dvorak analysis yields 0.5 curved band, DT=2.5, MET and PAT agree. Northeast vertical wind shear may be reducing as the system becomes more organized.

The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected at the standard rate as the system moves closer to the upper ridge axis. Tropical cyclone formation is expected during Tuesday, then ongoing intensification later in the week as the tropical cyclone moves further southwest.

The tropical cyclone is forecast to move closer to the Western Australia coast later in the week under the influence of an approaching upper trough, but its longer term movement is uncertain.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 05U
2:43 PM CST January 7 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) was located near 11.4S 120.9E, that is 740 km north of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.0S 119.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.4S 118.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.2S 116.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.1S 115.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Fair position based on microwave and surface data, south of Sumba Island. Slightly improved curvature of deep convection near center yielding 0.3 curved band, DT=1.5-2.0. FT based on PAT = 2.0. Moderate northeast wind shear has limited the development rate to T0.5/day. The circulation appears slightly tilted west with height with significant curved bands in the southwest sector.

The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, upper divergence and vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is expected to return to the standard rate as the system becomes more organized and moves closer to the upper ridge axis. Tropical cyclone formation is expected late Tuesday or early Wednesday, then a steady intensification later in the week as the tropical cyclone moves further southwest.

The tropical cyclone is forecast to move closer to the WA coast later in the week under the influence of an approaching upper trough, but its longer term movement is uncertain.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

A developing tropical low, 1001hPa, is located near 11.4S 121.7E and is moving west southwest at about 10 knots, away from the Northern Region. The low is expected to develop as it moves further into the Indian Ocean.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

The tropical low mentioned above is likely to reach cyclone intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Western Australian mainland. On Thursday the system may take a more south southwest track and approach the west Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High
Thursday: High
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Quoting aquak9:
As much as no one wants to hear it- esp those who pay electric bills- we NEED a freeze.
Even in Jan, seeing the sicknesses that should not be so prevalent, illnesses that could be curbed by a hard everyone-stay-at-home-for-three-days freeze.
But no...it's just the semi-humid atmosphere of a dying refrigerator, where everything grows to make you SICK.

Helpful hint to all- eat of the brassicas that are coming into season, as well as the citrus. Add garlic, lotsa garlic. Stay exceptionally hydrated so that your body has the ability to flush out copiously, any nasty pathogen that's looking at a short-term lease.

(wipes off soapbox, returns it to garage)

Ya'll stay healthy.



Hydration is key. The warm wet winter we have had so far makes us like a petre dish of germs.
On the Plus side, my orchids are all pushing up flower shoots.
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This a TRMM of SONAMU yesterday. The width of that hot tower at the center of the storm was a little startling or something. Click pic for really large quicktime.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Week ahead holds upper 70s & lower 80s during what is usually the coldest week in East Central FL.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Officials say red tide is responsible for thousands of dead fish that have washed up along the beaches in Sarasota and Charlotte counties. The dead fish started washing ashore on Monday. Crews spent Thursday afternoon cleaning the beaches along Blind Pass, Manasota and Englewood Beach. Sarasota park and recreation director George Tatge calls the red tide outbreak "significant." He says most of the dead fish are large mullet. Tatge suspects a large school of mullet likely got caught up in a red tide bloom and washed ashore thanks to strong wind from the west. Officials say the beaches are safe. But people with asthma or chronic respiratory issued should be wary of the red tide conditions. Red tide can also be dangerous to dogs.

OrangeRoses~ Thanks, that will be nice to watch the front pass on.


Aqua~ Bring your soap box anytime.

My whole Saturday was cancelled due to so many being sick. My Mom lost a friend to it last week. It's really hitting the adults hard.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
The is a simple surface analysis from UCAR. If you zoom it shows more. I know you have a lot of maps that you use, Skye.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As much as no one wants to hear it- esp those who pay electric bills- we NEED a freeze.
Even in Jan, seeing the sicknesses that should not be so prevalent, illnesses that could be curbed by a hard everyone-stay-at-home-for-three-days freeze.
But no...it's just the semi-humid atmosphere of a dying refrigerator, where everything grows to make you SICK.

Helpful hint to all- eat of the brassicas that are coming into season, as well as the citrus. Add garlic, lotsa garlic. Stay exceptionally hydrated so that your body has the ability to flush out copiously, any nasty pathogen that's looking at a short-term lease.

(wipes off soapbox, returns it to garage)

Ya'll stay healthy.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 6 2013
=================================

Area of disturbed weather east of the basin: Last available Meteosat7 animations show an elongated and ill-defined clockwise circulation partially exposed east of the main convective activity (very fluctuating). It is possible to localize a center approximately near 13.0S 82.0E slowly drifting southwards at 3-4 knots. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa (surface low pressure clearly increasing on buoy number 53006 since yesterday). Maximum winds are at about 15-20 knots around the center, very locally reaching 25 knots (refer to ASCAT and OSCAT swath of this morning).

Convective Activity remains fluctuating for several days and extends up to 350 NM westward.

east southeasterly vertical wind shear keeps on being the limiting factor for significant deepening. It is expected to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours but equatorward low level inflow is expected to be indirect in the same time. This moderately favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue over this area within the next 3 days.

This low is expected to begin to track westward Wednesday late or Thursday early and should then take benefit on weakening vertical wind shear below the upper level ridge and on a better low level convergence (more direct monsoon flow and powerful subtropical highs southward). Intensification should then begin thanks to this favorable environmental conditions.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression east of the basin remains poor
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
21:00 PM JST January 6 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (994 hPa) located at 7.5N 109.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 6.8N 107.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 5.3N 106.1E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 PM EST SAT JAN 5 2013

...2012 WAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

.END OF YEAR STATISTICS...

TEMPERATURES...

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR 2012 AT THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED
IF IN THE TOP 10):

-DAYTONA BEACH HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR OF 71.9
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 1.0 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIED
1975 AS THE 9TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE.

-ORLANDO HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR OF 73.5 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 0.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIED 1989 AS
THE 10TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE.

-MELBOURNE HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR OF 73.3 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIED 2009 AS
THE 9TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE.

-VERO BEACH HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR OF 73.6 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 0.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RAINFALL...

2012 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN THE TOP 10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 42.29 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 2012, WHICH WAS
7.33 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 41.09 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 2012, WHICH WAS 9.64
INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 39.71 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 2012, WHICH WAS
12.29 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RANKED AS THE 10TH DRIEST YEAR ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.

-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 49.90 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 2012, WHICH WAS
1.97 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

$$

WEITLICH
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting Skyepony:
98S is gamely with all it's white on rainbow. Had to comment on 97S only because I hadn't updated or over looked the global scene in two days. So much had changed, that & the named storms was all that was left..well Dumile has been pronounced deceased by NAVY. Looks like the seeds have been sewn in the hot summer ocean.

That is Antarctica that a few of the models have Dumile going to?


Yup. Dumile is going southeastward quickly in its extratropical status.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
98S is gamely with all it's white on rainbow. Had to comment on 97S only because I hadn't updated or over looked the global scene in two days. So much had changed, that & the named storms was all that was left..well Dumile has been pronounced deceased by NAVY. Looks like the seeds have been sewn in the hot summer ocean.

That is Antarctica that a few of the models have Dumile going to?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Quoting Skyepony:
January info is up. Lots of invests. 97S is still alive..


98S is the invest to watch closely this week.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
January info is up. Lots of invests. 97S is still alive..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Might get snow at The Gash tonight.

This is that link with the GRACE file folders I've been in on Masters.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Extratropical Depression Former DUMILE:
Position at 1100Z : near 32.7S 60.7E
Movement : Southeast 26 knots
Mean sea level pressure : 979hPa (refer to Buoy 14554 at 0800Z).
Maximum winds : 55 knots

Area of disturbed weather east of the basin: Last available Meteosat7 animations shows an elongated and ill-defined clockwise circulation partially exposed east of the main convective activity and approximately centered near 11.4S 80.8E slowly drifting southwards at 3 knots. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1000 hPa thanks to buoy number 53006 (1000.4 hPa at 0900Z). Maximum winds are at about 20 knots near the center locally reaching 25 knots in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures and also locally equatorward in the monsoon flow (refer to 0416Z ASCAT swath). Convective activity remains fluctuating since several days and extends up to 240 NM from the center in the western semi-circle. East southeasterly vertical Wind shear keeps on being the limiting factor for significant deepening. It is expected to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours but equatorward low level inflow is expected to be indirect in the same time. This moderately favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue over this area up to Wednesday.

This low is expected to begin to track westwards Wednesday late or Thursday early and should then take benefit on weakening vertical wind shear below the upper level ridge and on a better low level convergence (more direct monsoon flow and powerful subtropical highs southward).

Intensification should then begin thanks to this favorable environmental conditions.

For the next 72 hours, potential for the development of another tropical depression east of the basin remains poor
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sonamu (990 hPa) located at 7.0N 109.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 6.5N 107.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 5.6N 105.9E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Fabulously foggy here..

Hades~ I see we have our 1st WPAC storm of the year. I'll have to update later.

Quoting Louisclocks:
I see Shell is up to no good again.


& over a tax break..JoeAlaska has been ammassing stuff on his blog. He's took some pics of that rig last month when it was through his harbor.


OR~ I will see what I can do. Hopefully someone here can help. Good to know there is still another working VCR out there:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING
11:00 AM PhST January 3 2013
==============================

The Low Pressure Area over northern Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "AURING"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Auring [1000 hPa] located at 8.5N 122.9E or 50 km west of Dipolog City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Palawan

Visayas Region
==============
1. Southern part of Negros provinces
2. Siquijor Island

Mindanao Region
==============
1. Lanao Del Norte
2. Lanao Del Sur
3. Misamis Occidental
4. Zamboanga del Norte
5. Zamboanga del Sur
6. Zamboanga Sibugay

Additional Information
======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 250 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of the country and over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon due to the Northeast Monsoon and over the western seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao due to the tropical depression.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
I see Shell is up to no good again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 2 2013
==================================

Area of disturbed weather at the extreme east of the basin: Undergoing an easterly vertical wind shear constraint, the center is totally exposed near 8.9S 83.3E, east of the deep convective activity that extends mainly in the western semi-circle up to 330 NM from the center. Maximum winds are estimated at 20/25 kt with mean sea level pressure at 1002 hPa. Most of the available numerical weather prediction models maintain a low moving westward for the next 3 days. Upper level wind shear seems to be the main unfavorable factor for the development of this low until Saturday. Beyond this low is expected to deepen significantly.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of another tropical depression east of the basin is poor to fair.

(97S)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST January 2 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 9.0N 121.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DUMILE (05-20122013)
16:00 PM RET January 2 2013
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dumile (982 hPa) located at 16.5S 55.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
65 NM in the northern and the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 190 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 245 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.8S 54.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.2S 54.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 26.2S 54.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 32.6S 61.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
TRMM 0647z 37 GHZ imagery keeps on showing that low level organization has not clearly improved despite more favorable environmental conditions near the upper level ridge axis. N19 AMSU-B 1000z and meteosat7 visible channel allow to locate the center more accurately than previously. System has accelerated south southwestwards over the last 6 hours undergoing the steering influence of the mid levels ridge existing in the east.

On this expected track, Dumile is expected to pass west of Mascareignes archipelago on Thursday. Beyond system should curve southeastward before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday.

The system should take benefit of the ongoing favorable environmental conditions and therefore is expected to intensify slowly within the next 24 to 36 hours. Rapid intensification scenario is not expected in relationship with the system inner core structure (large weak winds area near the center and strongest winds in a ring rather far from the center, refer to 0521z ASCAT swath). Current forecast is therefore limited to minimal tropical cyclone stage as the system will cross at the closest point from reunion island. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Friday and Saturday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Mascareignes (Réunion and Mauritius) should monitor the progress of this system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
Skye??

I have a QR scan code for smartphones at the very bottom of my blog now. If you/or any of your commenting community have one of those style phones I would appreciate someone scanning it with their phone to test it. The code is the url link to my OrangeRoses blog, as it says on my blog. And.. I would like confirmation from whoever does it to please comment on my blog so I will know quickly. I don't have a smart phone. I'm not smart, and I don't even have any wireless devices, except for remotes for my stereo, TV, VCR(still) and DVD Recorder.

Now I know someone will break in and grab my toyz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DUMILE (05-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 2 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dumile (983 hPa) located at 15.0S 55.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM in the northern and the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.9S 54.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.3S 54.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 23.8S 54.5E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 27.3S 58.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
SSMIS F16 0119z shows a convective activity closer from the center but general organization has not clearly improve during last night. Stronger winds are probably still far from the system core, and the wind structure remains asymmetric.

The center keeps on being difficult to locate accurately on meteosat7 imagery. As forecast , system is on a south southwestwards track under the steering influence of the mid/high levels ridge existing in the east.

On this expected track, Dumile is expected to pass west of Mascareignes archipelago on Thursday. Beyond system should curve southeastward before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday.

The vertical wind shear is expected to weaken as the system approaches from the upper troposphere ridge axis. Consequently, Dumile should intensify during the next 36 hours. On and after, it should undergo cooler sea surface temperatures during the night from Thursday to Friday.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Friday and Saturday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Mascareignes (Réunion and Mauritius) should monitor the progress of this system. Note that Dumile should close east of Tromelin Island (less than 200 km) today.

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45301
BRIARCRAFT WINS FIRST & FIRST OF THE YEAR!!! ~ sure hope it is a really great one for you too.

I should have served my lucky dinner sooner in the day but we all pulled through..


{{{Finn}}}~ Happy New years & a smothering of White Wabits back at you.

Isn't this weather delightful? Could stand some rain but sure has been good riding weather.


MITCHELL is gone. DUMILE was named. Models up on that one, keeps it off the east coast of MAdagascar. FREDA's models have done a 180, completely changing direction.

DUMILE wins best looking storm today.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
Happy New Year {{{Skye}}} and friends!
Gazillion White Wabits ;-)
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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 73.4 °F
Dew Point: 73.0 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 12:41 AM EDT on August 30, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 71.2 °F
Dew Point: 66.5 °F
Humidity: 85%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:41 AM EDT on August 30, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 77.0 °F
Dew Point: 75.0 °F
Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:42 PM EDT on August 22, 2014

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