Tropics & What Not

By: Skyepony , 6:25 PM GMT on January 01, 2013

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
99S

98P


13S FELLENG




A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

24th-26th Favorable Planting Days: First Two Days Are Best For Planting Aboveground Crops. Especially Good For Peas, Beans, Cucumber, And Squash. Last Day Is A Most Fruitful Time To Plant Beets, Carrots, Onions, And Other Hardy Root Crops. Also Good For Transplanting.
27th-30th A Barren Time. Best For Killing Weeds, Briars, Poison Ivy, And Other Plant Pests. Clear Woodlots And Fencerows.
31st Favorable Day For Planting Root Crops. Fine For Sowing Grains, Hay, And Forage Crops. Plant Flowers.
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Local Weather~
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152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

Over southern Africa, an inland low has evolved since a few days over Botswana (at least since
Wednesday) generating heavy rainfalls over widespread areas: Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa (160 mm reported at 0600z over the last 24 hours at Thohoyandou, South Africa), southwestern Mozambique and Lesotho. Surface obs show that a center exists near 21.6S 28.0E (1003 hPa central pressure according to nearby QNH seen on METAR) and moves eastwards at 10-15 knots.

The disturbed weather area associated with the low should reach waters of the Mozambique channel on Tuesday where conditions could be conducive for development into a tropical cyclone. Latest output from the ECMWF ensemble system support that scenario and show some significant genesis probability on Wednesday and beyond. Within the next 24 hours, the disturbed weather associated with the low will spread over southern Mozambique.

For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. The potential becomes poor to fair Tuesday and Wednesday over the southern Mozambique channel.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
151. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:58 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 07U
7:51 AM EST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 6:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 15.7S 139.0E or 140 km north northeast of Mornington Island and 210 km west southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 15 knots.

A tropical low, with gusts up to 45 knots, is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours and will most likely cross the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama tonight or early Tuesday morning. Gales may develop between Karumba and Cape York, including Mornington Island, this afternoon and evening.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Torres Strait, including Mornington Island, today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Abnormally high tides are otherwise expected to occur about all remaining parts along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are also likely along the beachfront in coastal areas between Weipa and Torres Strait.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York, including Mornington Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
150. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
6:00 AM FST January 21 2013
======================================

Gale Watch For American Samoa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located near 12.8S 175.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 13 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Convection has decreased significantly influenced by diurnal variation and increasing environmental shear. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap in LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.5, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it eastward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.6S 173.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.8S 172.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.4S 170.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
149. OrangeRoses
9:15 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
Way before my time too. Will mail the rest.

Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 728
148. Skyepony
4:30 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
After The New York Times is done dismantling it's environment desk, there will only be about a Dozen Environment Reporters Left at Top 5 U.S. Papers.


OrangeRoses~ I should have left that in play a little longer. Got to thank Bob for that. Way before my time but Neil has alot of fans. I thought maybe the reference to Tulsa as well.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
147. Skyepony
4:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
Interesting article out this week. Check out this cluster of lights..this is what is being referred to as "Kuwait on The Prairie." An oil & gas field. Much of the light pollution is more than that, it's the less desirable gas being burnt off from the fracking & oil fields in North Dakota at the Bakken formation. Every day drillers in North Dakota burn off enough gas to heat half a million homes. The land's mineral rights were separated from the land long ago. The farmers are complaining of poisonous growing situation but have no say.





Video from the ISS.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
146. OrangeRoses
3:24 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
OrqangeRoses~ Last trip to Tulsa..

I've been toying with the idea of writing blogs again instead of just commenting on this reference blog. Not sure if I have the time.


Central Atlantic


Skyepony wins just before 153 am EDT!

The contest is over. If you want to remove my comment so that others who don't know you guessed it, Skye, it won't be an endless list of the unaware.

Also, you may had thought "why that song?" and you may have noticed palm tree in the lyrics, that may be growing near you. Not the same one in the song, or course. lol

Also, it is such a thought inspiring song being Neil's first album, released in 1968--- long b4 I was created!
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 728
145. Skyepony
2:53 PM GMT on January 20, 2013
91P is now 10P.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
144. Skyepony
6:53 AM GMT on January 20, 2013
OrqangeRoses~ Last trip to Tulsa..

I've been toying with the idea of writing blogs again instead of just commenting on this reference blog. Not sure if I have the time.


Central Atlantic
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
143. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:21 AM GMT on January 20, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
12:00 PM FST January 20 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 13.0S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and visible and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has slightly increased in past 24 hours. Deep convection decreasing in past 6 hours due to cloud top warming. System lies south of a n upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0, and PT=2.0

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.4S 177.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 12.0S 175.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 12.3S 172.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1/ Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
142. OrangeRoses
3:30 AM GMT on January 20, 2013
EEEEEEEEEEEEE!! three times I closed this before saving.

I would need to study 4 years 2 understand half of Ur Blog images, Skye.

sumthin new at the bottom. a little Q&R?

Contest: Guess the title of the song and artist from these lyrics only:

"I was chopping down a palm tree
When a friend dropped by to ask
If I would feel less lonely
If he helped me swing the axe.
I said: No, it's not a case of being lonely
We have here,
I've been working on this palm tree
For eighty seven years"
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 728
141. Skyepony
2:58 AM GMT on January 20, 2013
Rob~ It was that a harsh summer for my front garden.


New Fukushima record
em>A rockfish caught in the port of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant was found to have radioactive cesium 2,540 times the government's safety standard for foodstuffs, Tokyo Electric Power Co., the plant operator, said Jan. 18. Caught in December, the rockfish had a reading of 254,000 becquerels per kilogram, the largest reading found in seafood since the nuclear disaster of March 2011. The rockfish was caught near an unloading point north of the No. 1 through No. 4 reactors. No fishermen operate in the nuclear plant's port. The previous record was 25,800 becquerels of cesium per kilogram found in two greenlings caught about 20 kilometers north of the plant in August 2012.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
140. RobDaHood
5:29 PM GMT on January 19, 2013
Re: Peach trees.

Lost one but other 3 looking healthy.
Plucked the fruit as it set. Hated to but will let the young trees devote their energy to branch and root development instead of making peaches. The heat and drought were pretty brutal this year but managed to nurse 3 of them through it.

So...with any luck, I'll be eating fresh peaches next year.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31952
139. Skyepony
5:18 PM GMT on January 19, 2013
Tropics are pretty quiet. 91P is probilby the most gamely thing going. It's half decoupled, taking some pretty hard shear from the west.

The low that night ended up being 44ºF.. Lastnight the low was 65º. Mild temps are here..Highs in the low to mid 70s lows in the 50s & 60s.. Had some rain here & there. Just north of here had more. It's not showing up on Tampa radar but you can expect more scattered coastal showers.

I should get on the roof & fix my PWS rain gauge today.

NEwxguy~ Sorry to say it looks like another bitter blast for you coming this week. Hope you find some warmth in this winter..

Rob~ That was a brutal switch mid-day..

How is your peach tree? I'm afraid mine may have died..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
138. NEwxguy
4:09 PM GMT on January 18, 2013
I see you people down there are feeling a winter chill.Next week your 41 degrees will be a heatwave for me,we'll struggle to get into the 20's,so much for our mild winter.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15727
137. RobDaHood
3:43 PM GMT on January 18, 2013
brrrrrrrr!
Who turned off the heat?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31952
136. Skyepony
3:35 PM GMT on January 18, 2013
Morning SNK~ No snow in Mills River either. Heard from my Aunt who's farther north & east in NC. She's snowed in.

WNC had a bunch more landslides..

The rain-soaked western mountain counties have seen a deluge of smaller landslides over roadways, with nearly 50 slope failures causing problems on DOT roads. "We've had four in Cherokee County, three in Clay County, 23 in Graham County, eight in Haywood, 10 in Jackson, two in Macon, six in Swain and none in Henderson, Polk and Transylvania." Said Joel Setzer, district engineer for District 14, which comprises the 10 westernmost counties. Setzer noted that these are only slides on DOT-maintained roads. More have occurred on private roads. Most of the slides have been from smaller embankments that overhang roadways, Setzer said, and so far the failures have not caused any wrecks. When the embankments fail, earth and debris slides onto the road. So far, DOT crews have been able to clear all of these slides, working through the night in some cases. One on Cherohala Skyway is more severe, though, and likely will result in that road being closed, Setzer said. Also closed is Bulldog Drive in Murphy. The foundation of the bridge over the Valley River has been compromised. "When the flood came up, it piled up debris on the bridge piers and started a new path around the end supports of bridge," Setzer said. "That undermined the piers that are embedded into the ground." That closed the road, which serves Murphy High and Middles schools, as well as a Lowe's Home Improvement store. An alternate entrance is available, but it takes longer to get in, Setzer said. DOT crews will have to wait till the weather clears and the Valley River recedes to assess whether the bridge can be repaired or will have to be replaced. Setzer said they are also closely monitoring Interstate 40 through the Pigeon River Gorge, the site of numerous rock slides since the 1960s, with the latest coming in 2009.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
135. RTLSNK
8:39 AM GMT on January 18, 2013
Snake tiptoes in at 339 AM. 39.1*F in Macon this
morning, no snow for us around here. :(
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20930
134. Skyepony
7:01 AM GMT on January 18, 2013
My traipsing grounds in the mountains saw no snow but flooding is coming.

The Flood Warning continues for
the French Broad River at Blantyre.
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 19.5 feet by
tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact... at 19.0 feet... flooding at this level will be similar to
flooding that occurred on January 26 2010. Water overtops
the Railroad and starts to flood a trailer park on River Ridge
Road. Buildings north of Grove bridge Road along Highway 64 will
begin to flood.
* Impact... at 18.0 feet... the river will overtop the Railroad tracks
near Fodderstack Mountain and river roads. Flooding of most of
areas between the river and Railroad tracks will continue.
* Impact... at 17.5 feet... the bridge on Grove bridge Road will be
flooded and the river will begin to overtop the Railroad tracks
south of Grove Road. Flooding of most areas between the river and
Railroad will continue.
* Impact... at 17.0 feet... water will approach buildings north of
Grove bridge Road along Highway 64. Farmland between the river and
the Railroad will be flooded. Low lying areas on Grove bridge...
Pleasant Grove and tally roads will be flooded.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
133. Skyepony
4:38 AM GMT on January 18, 2013
We lost 90S today. 92P is new.

Summer in January is over for atleast the next week. My Bestcast forecast for tonight of 41º looks more reasonable compared to WESH's 38º.. Maybe even a degree or two warmer. It's 55 out there now, there should be some clouds out til morning.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
132. Skyepony
5:07 AM GMT on January 17, 2013
441 fell off the mountain in Swain, near Jackson too. Gonna be a while before that is open again. Damaged a garage.


There is a 50 page book on solar activity affecting climate. The recent NRC Workshop report. You can read it online here for free.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
131. Skyepony
2:43 AM GMT on January 17, 2013
WNC is getting alot of rain. Flooding in Waynesville. Landslides & flooding in Jackson County..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HEAVY RAIN MARION 35.68N 82.01W
01/15/2013 E0.00 INCH MCDOWELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** TREE WAS UPROOTED IN SATURATED
SOIL...FALLING ACROSS TWO VEHICLES. ONE OCCUPANT WAS
KILLED.


&&

$$

MCAVOY
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
130. Skyepony
8:57 PM GMT on January 16, 2013
Rob~ Shade cloth should come in handy.

I planted the lazy version of that..corn. I know so out of season..but it's hot. The poor kale & leeks will need shade if it persists & if it persists I'll be harvesting corn in mid April. I'm floored & delighted fresh okra is still coming out of SFL.

Things I planted today..
wheat grass, chard, bush beans, snow peas & Golden cross Bantam corn.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
129. RobDaHood
5:01 PM GMT on January 16, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
Saw The Hobbit last week. It was pretty great. For the other pony/ring fans out there.


Lord of the horseshoes!
Cute!

And gravity waves, and no tall veggies allowed?
Lots of stuff to keep the mind occupied.

No planting this week. Will be building a new framwork to hold shadecloth though.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31952
128. Skyepony
4:11 PM GMT on January 16, 2013
This was almost a month ago but I pointed it out at the time with a TRMM pass cause it was just startling.. something I hadn't seen. NASA did a write up one.. like they used the same verbage I used at the time..startling.


TRMM captured data on Cyclone Evan's cloud heights and rainfall on Dec. 16 and spotted an extremely tall storm-cell in the north side of the eyewall. The updrafts in this tower extended high enough to lift precipitation-size ice 17 km above the ocean surface (red in the image). The insert shows the infrared cloud top temperatures. The clockwise arrow shows the direction of the winds circling the eyewall. At the north side of the eyewall, the explosive circular shape is the upper-level outflow from the extremely tall tower, Credit: NASA/Owen Kelley

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite found an unusually tall towering thunderstorm in Cyclone Evan.

According to Owen Kelley of the TRMM satellite team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md, the most startling feature of the December 16 overflight of Tropical Cyclone Evan was the extremely tall storm-cell in the north side of the eyewall. At the time TRMM passed overhead and captured an image of the storm, Evan was about to rake across the northern coast of the islands of Fiji.

The updrafts in this tower extended high enough to lift precipitation-size ice 17 km (10.5 miles) above the ocean surface. Tall precipitation cells are generally taken to be anything at least 14.5 km (9 miles) high and are nicknamed "hot towers," but what was seen in Evan's eyewall was a different category of storm cell.

Storm-cells as tall as the one in the eyewall of Evan have been long known to occur occasionally over land, but before the TRMM satellite, there were not thought to occur over ocean far from land. While field campaigns have periodically studied one location or other over the ocean, what TRMM has taught us is that such sporadic observations are insufficient if you want catch rare events. After 15 years of continuous operation, TRMM satellite reveals the rare features and challenges our understanding of how the weather works. The ocean is an unlikely place to find extremely tall oceanic cells because the ocean surface stays roughly constant in temperature, unlike the land which quickly heats up over the course of a day, increasing low-level instability, and encouraging tall cells to form. More here
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
127. Skyepony
3:59 PM GMT on January 16, 2013
99P is gone 91P is new..

That wasn't all a victory for Orlando. Can't have veggy plants over 4'. They want 75% of the front yard lawn. Outside Orlando city limits they want 60% of your property lawn.

In all the 2012 review I've yet to see mention of the freaky Acoustic Gravity Waves that started in 2011 & ended in 2012..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:39 AM GMT on January 16, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
Hades~ Moving 30kts is pretty fast..


slowed down a little as it becomes a developed low pressure area (no longer tropical) now.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:37 AM GMT on January 16, 2013
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 16 2013
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Emang (1002 hPa) located at 13.9S 77.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 14.0S 77.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.2S 75.8E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.8S 72.3E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Due to the improving upper level divergence, convection has developed during last night. But the last ASCAT data do not show any strengthening of the winds force. Last micro-waves data (SSMIS 0242z) does not show improvement of the organization of the system.

Environment remains not favorable to intensification especially due to bad low level convergence equatorwards for the next days. Available numerical weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this system.

Ex-Emang is now drifting slowly westwards, it should accelerate, north to the low and mid tropospheric subtropical anticyclonic belt.

Last warning on this system unless re-intensification.

--
Emang is having a hard time being classified by Mauritius while the JTWC think it is going to intensify further.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
124. Skyepony
9:57 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
Hades~ Moving 30kts is pretty fast..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:21 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea Far East Of Japan

At 3:00 AM JST, Extratropical Low (936 hPa) located at 44.0N 167.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 30 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
122. Skyepony
9:07 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
Small victory for Orlando vegetable growers today..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
121. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea Far East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM JST, Extratropical Low (937 hPa) located at 42.0N 163.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 30 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
120. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST January 15 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 09F (1003 hPa) located at 12.0S 167.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased slightly near system center past 24 hours. System lies in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastwards with slight intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
119. Skyepony
3:06 PM GMT on January 15, 2013
94W & NARELLE are gone.

Had some coastal showers. Still haven't got on the roof & cleaned out the PWS so the rain reading matches the radar from Tampa..nothing.

Noticed our wildfires over here don't show up on Tampa radar either.

Should be no more than a week til we get our radar back.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
118. Skyepony
3:02 AM GMT on January 15, 2013
Central Atlantic
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
117. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:28 AM GMT on January 15, 2013
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea Far East Of Japan

At 9:00 AM JST, Extratropical Low (944 hPa) located at 38.0N 154.0E. This low is reported as moving east at 40 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
116. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:54 AM GMT on January 15, 2013
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 15 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Emang (999 hPa) located at 13.2S 78.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.8S 78.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.2S 77.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.0S 75.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.1S 71.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================
Ex-Emang fix has been extrapolated with SSMI f15 microwave picture of 2157z. Globally for the last 12 hours, pattern of the system has slightly improved with convection showing a 0.4 wrap near the low level circulation center. But convection remains rather weak and fluctuating. The size of the system is small and Ex-Emang is very sensitive to its environment. 1800z CIMSS data show easterly constraint a little decreasing at about 8-10 knots. Low level inflow is poor equatorward.

The upper level vertical wind shear still being forecast to lower at 24 hours, Ex-Emang may slightly deepen between this evening and Thursday. Available numerical weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this system, but intensity forecast remains uncertain due to the small size of the system.

On and after Friday, westerly vertical wind shea may strengthen again, and system should weaken.

Now system is tracking very slowly southwestward, towards a weakening in the anticyclonic subtropical belt. Within the next 24 hours, it should recurve west southwestward by accelerating, in connection with the rebuilding of the low and mid tropospheric subtropical anticyclonic belt.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
115. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
22:00 PM RET January 14 2013
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Emang (999 hPa) located at 13.2S 78.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants, and up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 78.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.0S 78.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.8S 76.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.0S 72.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================
Since 1200z, convection has improved above the low level circulation center, but it remains rather weak and fluctuating. The size of the system is small and Ex Emang is very sensitive to its environment. 1200z CIMSS data show a persistent easterly constraint at about 13-14 knots. Low level inflow is poor equatorward.

The upper level vertical wind shear still being forecast to lower at 24-36 hours, Ex Emang may slightly deepen between Tuesday evening and Thursday. Available numerical weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this system, but intensity forecast remains uncertain due to the small size of the system.

On and after Friday, vertical wind shear may strengthen again, and system should weaken.

Now system is tracking southwestward, towards a weakening in the anticyclonic subtropical belt. It should keep on this track for the next 12 hours, and then recurve west southwestward, in connection with the rebuilding of the subtropical anticyclonic belt in the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER NARELLE (05U)
2:17 AM WST January 15 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Narelle (996 hPa) located at 28.8S 109.8E or 470 km west of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 32.1S 111.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 36.7S 116.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 46.1S 131.7E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 54.1S 149.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Narelle has been declassified as a Tropical Cyclone based on consistent FTs of 2.0 to 2.5 over the last 6 hours and the subjective CI dropping to 2.5. ADT CI has been below 3 for six hours also. The system is highly sheared from the north northwest with the low level centre difficult to locate. Recent FTs have been based on MET.

Model guidance continues to show a low spread in track forecasts with expected motion becoming southeast today and faster as the remnant circulation loses coherence. When the remnants pass by the south west of the state the surface winds are not expected to be very strong but stronger winds just above the surface pose a risk to any going fires.

Higher than normal tides are expected along the west coast as a shelf wave moves down the coast.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
6:00 AM FST January 15 2013
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 176.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has not changed much in past 24 hour. Deep convection displaced to the northeast of low level circulation center. CIMMS indicates weak upper divergence near the system but strong away to the east. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern giving DT=1.5 MET=2.0 and PT=1.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak intensity: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a east southeast movement with slight intensification

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.2S 174.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 21.1S 172.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 22.5S 167.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:34 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan

At 3:00 AM JST, Extratropical Low (952 hPa) located at 37.0N 149.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 40 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
111. Skyepony
7:45 PM GMT on January 14, 2013
Rip currents & fire danger the hazards of the day.

Good planting day by the moon. Felt wrong transplanting kale & leaks into a bed in 82ºF weather. Scattered some carrot seeds too. Mulched with hay. Might help keep the soil a little cooler & moist. It was the bed the volunteer sweet potatoes were in. Was amazed how many I dug up for doing nothing to them.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
110. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:06 AM GMT on January 14, 2013
At 4:00 AM RET, Moderate Tropical Storm Emang (997 hPa) located at 12.0S 79.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM only in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 79.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 13.1S 78.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 13.9S 77.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 14.7S 75.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
The general structure of the system is not yet very persistent, the convection is fluctuating, and undergoes diurnal evolution. Due to his small size, the system suffer from the moderate easterly upper level constraint, has difficulties to intensify.

Current forecast is based on 1200z ECMWF run that has accelerate and suggests a regular west southwestward track within the next 24 hours northwest of low and mid-level high pressures. Tuesday, Emang is expected to track temporarily south southwestward with the steering influence of a low situated in its southwest. Beyond, Emang should take again a regular west southwestward then westward track at the end of the forecast period.

1800z CIMSS data still show an easterly constraint. Upper level environment should become progressively more favorable for a probably slow intensification within the next 48-60 hours. From Wednesday, it is possible that system more clearly intensifies thanks to a building polarward channel in the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
109. Patrap
11:53 PM GMT on January 13, 2013

Fishermen try to dig out a fishing boat trapped in ice in the Jiaozhou harbor in Qingdao, in east China's Shandong province on Jan. 5.
(Photo: AP)

Chinese struggle to stay wired amid cold snap
Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY2:21p.m. EST January 10, 2013


Low temperatures indoor make it difficult to charge iPads and iPhones in south China.


BEIJING – China's coldest winter in almost three decades, including record low temperatures, freezing rain and snow, has left nearly 400,000 people in a "state of disaster" in southwest Guizhou province alone.

Workers there used bamboo sticks Thursday to beat ice off frozen power lines, reported state news agency Xinhua.

But for some Chinese, especially the urban residents of south China, who are denied the state-supplied heating networks of north China, the fierce cold snap poses a new, albeit much less serious problem: how to charge their iPads and iPhones.

Extreme weather has sent temperatures in China diving to a national average of 25 degrees Fahrenheit since Nov. 20, the lowest level for 28 years, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

In south China, that translates into genuine discomfort and has reignited a decades-old debate about the lack of heating. A line drawn in the 1950s split China into a northern half that installed and still enjoys heavily subsidized public heating, and a southern half that shivers through winter without a public heating network and must make do with private, often less effective heating devices.

This month, southerners have again expressed their displeasure at what they view as an unfair and arbitrary divide, and now they have new evidence to offer: Apple products that dislike cold weather.

On China's booming social media networks, south Chinese consumers are busy sharing their frustrations at the extremely long time it takes to charge iPads and other Apple products at low room temperatures.

The many novel, and apparently successful, charging methods that Chinese users have documented with recent online pictures include: stuffing their iPads into sheets, blankets and duvets; smothering them in hot water bags and bottles; clutching them to beating human chests; sticking on heating pads; blasting them with hairdryers and electric fans.

This very minor issue reveals the soaring economic power of Chinese consumers, as many of these iPad owners grew up in homes without even a telephone land line. It also highlights the way they employ China's heavily censored but still serviceable social media to complain about social issues.

"How can failure to charge be normal!" shouted Peng Bin on Thursday on the massively popular Sina Weibo micro-blogging service.

His daughter had bought an iPad recently, but Peng refused to accept the explanations of Apple employees in the southern Chinese city of Nanchang that cold weather meant long charging times.

A fast seller this week has been touchscreen gloves, whose conductive fingertips allow users to access all their digital devices. In Jiujiang city in southern Jiangxi province, the China News Service reported strong sales of touchscreen gloves, selling for under $2 per pair last week, among young users of smartphone and iPads.

"In the winter I can wear gloves to play with my iPad and cellphone, and they only cost $1.80, it's really good," said a female shopper who gave her name as Sun, the news agency reported.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128238
108. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:20 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
94W (Bising) is extratropical now

SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM JST, Extratropical Low (996 hPa) located at 30.0N 133.0E. This low is reported as moving east at 25 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:18 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EMANG (06-20122013)
22:00 AM RET January 13 2013
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Emang (996 hPa) located at 11.5S 80.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at west northwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM only in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.0S 79.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.7S 78.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 77.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 76.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
The general structure of the system is not yet very persistent, the convection is fluctuating, and undergoes diurnal evolution. Last satellites imagery infrared show a small central dense overcast with more cold clouds. The system has still a small size.

00z runs of different numerical weather prediction models are clearly in better agreement and ensemble ECMWF runs are much less dispersed. Current forecast is based on 0000z ECMWF run that suggests a regular west southwestward track within the next 48 hours north-west of low and mid-level high pressures. Tuesday, Emang is expected to track temporarily south southwestward with the steering influence of a low situated in its southwest. Beyond, Emang should take again a regular west southwestward then westward track at the end of the forecast period.

1500z CIMMS data still show an easterly constraint. Upper level environment should become progressively more favorable for a probably slow intensification within the next 48 hours. From Wednesday, it is possible that system more clearly intensifies with both outflow channels strengthening equatorward and poleward.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:18 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
2:36 AM WST January 14 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (977 hPa) located at 24.2S 109.5E or 430 km west of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.9S 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 29.3S 109.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 35.1S 114.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 44.8S 129.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to weaken. The deeper convection is becoming discontinuous and less associated with the center in most quadrants. Dvorak DT has dropped to 3.5 using curved band or embedded centre patterns. CI is held at 4.0. ADT maintains a CI of 4.6. Intensity is 55 knots based on a blend of Dvorak and recent ASCAT pass, with a weakening trend forecast.

Model guidance continues to show a relatively low spread in track forecasts with expected motion generally toward the south during Monday, turning to the southeast on Tuesday. System is forecast to drop below cyclone strength on Tuesday.

Higher than normal tides are likely to continue about the west Pilbara coast and west coast on Monday and Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
105. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:18 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
6:00 AM FST January 14 2013
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP. FOR TONGA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 17.1S 179.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Deep convection remains persistent in northeast quadrant. Outflow good in eastern semi-circle but restricted elsewhere. System lies south of an upper level ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on LOG 10 spiral giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeastward movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.1S 177.8W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 18.9S 176.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 20.9S 172.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
104. Skyepony
7:01 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
I left 94W up for the outflow boundary. NAVY has removed it. NOAA can't be far behind.

90S is new. 09S is now EMANG.

NARELLE a wisp of it's former self teasing AU..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
103. Skyepony
6:46 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
Impressive outflow boundary moving into where 94W was.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
102. Skyepony
6:42 PM GMT on January 13, 2013
Saw The Hobbit last week. It was pretty great. For the other pony/ring fans out there.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829

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Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 79.7 °F
Dew Point: 73.4 °F
Humidity: 81%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 9:45 PM EDT on August 27, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 70.0 °F
Dew Point: 62.4 °F
Humidity: 77%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:45 PM EDT on August 27, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 77.0 °F
Dew Point: 75.0 °F
Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:42 PM EDT on August 22, 2014

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