Tropics & What Not

By: Skyepony , 6:25 PM GMT on January 01, 2013

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
99S

98P


13S FELLENG




A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

24th-26th Favorable Planting Days: First Two Days Are Best For Planting Aboveground Crops. Especially Good For Peas, Beans, Cucumber, And Squash. Last Day Is A Most Fruitful Time To Plant Beets, Carrots, Onions, And Other Hardy Root Crops. Also Good For Transplanting.
27th-30th A Barren Time. Best For Killing Weeds, Briars, Poison Ivy, And Other Plant Pests. Clear Woodlots And Fencerows.
31st Favorable Day For Planting Root Crops. Fine For Sowing Grains, Hay, And Forage Crops. Plant Flowers.
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Local Weather~
Cool & dry


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Rising Moon (RenoSoHill)
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Rising Moon
Morning Wolf Moon (MikePic)
Morning Wolf Moon
Farm floods (letchworth)
Sudden heavy rains caused flooding in low lying areas in the Sylva, NC area.
Farm floods

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It is an excellent time to work on putting aside the old and outdated in one's personal life and making plans for new and better conditions.

We have torn down the old 6x3 cedar shed, and are building a new 8x10 shed! pulling up sod, leveling the stones, and the new shed arrived in boxes on a semi. So, we gotta build that, too.

one's personal life
yeah, well...my personal life is spent under the sun, not a ceiling. So we are excited about this.

and the 1st 12 days of Jan? I guess it's gonna be a long hot year, then. No cute pajamas here- just tanktops and undies.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
201. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
10:00 AM RET January 27 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.6S 63.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 61.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.1S 54.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.9S 52.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
For the last 6 hours, pattern of the system has few evolved. First visible satellite pictures show a partially exposed low level circulation center south of convection that is rejected northward due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear (estimated at 9 knots thanks to 0000z CIMSS data). OSCAT data of yesterday evening and 0350z SSMIS f18 (curved band on 0.3 wrap) suggest that near gale force winds exist in the eastern semi-circle.

System keeps on tracking westward to west southwestward on the northern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestward track throughout the next 72 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN suggest a few more southwestward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until monday late or tuesday morning. So a significant deepening seems not likely for the next 36 hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast

After Wednesday and up to the end of the forecast range, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward along the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
January
Moon Names: Wolf Moon, Quiet Moon, Snow Moon, Cold Moon, Chaste Moon, Disting Moon, Moon of Little Winter.

he word January comes from the Roman name for this month; it was named after the god Janus, who had two faces. This deity ruled over beginnings and endings, the past and the future. Since January is reckoned as the first month of a new year, this connection the the god Janus is appropriate. It is an excellent time to work on putting aside the old and outdated in one's personal life and making plans for new and better conditions.


The Chinese use this concept in celebrating their New Year, which occurs on the first day of the New Moon when the Sun is in Aquarius. They considered this celebration a time for settling debts, honoring ancestors, and having family reunions. They carry paper images of dragons through the streets and set off fireworks to chase away evil entities and misfortune.

Even the people ot Tibet, whose year began about the end of January, had a celebration for expelling the Old Year. They made a dough image for the demons to inhabit, then worshiped then for seven days. At the end of that period, they took the image outside the village to a crossroad and abandoned it. The idea behind this seems to have been that the negative beings, who have accumulated during the Old Year, received recognition for their existence, but also received a firm statement, by the action of leaving their image outside the village, that they were not welcome to hang around.
Correspondences

Nature Spirits: gnomes, brownies
Herbs: Marjoram, holy thistle, nuts and cones
Colours: brilliant white, blue-violet, black
Flowers: Snowdrop, crocus
Scents: Musk, mimosa
Stones: Garnet, onyx, jet, chrysoprase
Trees: Birch
Animals: Fox, coyote
Birds: Pheasant, blue jay
Deities: Freyja, Inanna, Sarasvati, Hera, Ch'ang-O Sinn
Power Flow: Sluggish, below the surface; beginning and conceiving. Protection, reversing spells. Conserving energy by working on personal problems that involve no one else. Getting your various bodies to work smoothly together for the same goals.
OldSayings&Lore

Whatever the weather is like the first twelve days of January indicates what the weather will be like for the next 12 solar months. Each day equals on month in succession.
To wish on the Moon in order to see a specific person soon, say while looking at the Moon: " I see the Moon, The Moon sees me. The Moon sees (name of the person) who I want to see."
To get rid of warts, take a slice of apple. While looking at the New Moon, rub the flesh of the apple against the wart and say: "What I see is growing, What I rub is going." Bury the piece of apple. As it rots, the wart will disappear.
If a New Moon falls on a Saturday, it was said there would be twenty days of wind and rain.
In prophesying marriage, on must look at the first Moon of the new year through a silk handkerchief. The number of Moons showing through it represents the number of months (Moons) of single life.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Cloudsat of Atlantic low.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
I think they are trying to turn our radar back on at MLB NWS!

I embed it in the entry again.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
MODIS
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Fixed up the entry.

13S
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Thanks for coming by everyone:) I'm totally distracted by this bombing swirl.. & need to run off & accomplish.

OR~ Thanks for the awesome link! My what not header is about sharing odd links from my what not folder.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Atlantic bomb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Atlantic bomb~ so huge OSCAT can only capture 1/2 of it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 26 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.4S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 130 NM in the northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.0S 62.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 54.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
==========================
Taking benefit of a weakening southerly vertical wind shear, convective activity has consolidated last night. It keeps on organizing as a curved band at about 0.4 to 0.5. 0522z ASCAT and 0723z OSCAT swaths reveals a very asymmetric winds structure.

Strongest winds extend far from the center in the northeastern quadrant when extension remains small in the western semi-circle. System is expected to track globally westwards within the next 72-84 hours lead time. As expected south southeasterly wind shear is recently strengthening back and low level vortex has temporarily been partially exposed south of the main convective activity (refer to meteosat7 1100z and 1200z imagery). Southeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keeps on being unfavorable until monday late over this forecast track and a significant deepening seems therefore not likely, a weakening should even occur within Sunday and Monday.

Thursday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases and as upper level equatorward divergence keeps on being very favorable. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

System is therefore expected to regularly strengthening and pass under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east and is expected to re-curve south westwards along the eastern Malagasy coastline from Wednesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
191. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 27 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA, ATIU,MAUKE,MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 20.0S 158.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 17 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
95 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
70 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has not changed much in the past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent past 24 hours. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with MG surround, yielding DT=4.0 MET=3.5 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.1S 157.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.1S 156.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 28.7S 150.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
Skyepony,

Here's another link to satellites from many countries worldwide, from Formilab Switzerland, in case wanted some more. A simple select and click button. But the satellite you choose then allows many more options, they are not single static imagery. Most likely you been there already



Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 716
189. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY THREE (09F)
6:00 AM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA AND ATIU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAUKE, MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry (975 hPa) located near 16.7S 160.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
90 NM from the center elsewhere

System has become disorganized significantly past 6 hours. low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to east. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. CIMMS indicate weak upper divergence aloft low level circulation center with strong upper divergence to southeast of low level circulation center. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 15 NM sheared distance from deep convection edge yielding DT=3.5. MET=4.0 and PT=4.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.6S 159.7W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.7S 158.7W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.6S 155.4W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
Great calender! and we still don't have a 2013 calender here. What a mess.

I like Mr February. I like his HAIR.

Was wondering if you'd catch the attitude, too.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Turns out my Skyepony (the actual pony) is "Mr January" on Dr Tucker's 2013 calender. He'd just had his teeth done. Doc T left me one at a barn nearby today since Skye was featured. I had no idea he was going to be in there. Dr Tucker is, I'd say the best horse dentist on the east coast. He works on horses from the New England area down through KY to SFL. Takes great pics. There is one in there, ponies in the flooding last summer in Wellington. Many of the barns he works at puts my house to shame. We were pretty pleased here that my backyard stallion made it into his calender.



Aqua~ Oh my hair too & maybe attitude:) Wrist is a little sore from the soup I cut up tonight..goat teeth would be handy.

OrangeRoses~ Thanks for the link. I don't think I had that one directly bookmarked.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
-and-

if I was a goat? my hair would be so much more socially acceptable.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Skyepony?

I found this in an older favorites folder and finally got something to work with it! You probably already been to this site, but... maybe you haven't!



image clickable
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 716
So hazy.. Looked like the fire yesterday was at Wickham Park. There's a fire going pretty good near I-95 & Suntree.


Aqua~ Never grown cruciferous. The cauliflower should get bigger, they are like harvesting broccoli, but they hide in the middle.

I need to get pics up of the gardens here. Still getting a few passionfruit every day & cut some dead out of it. Had one or two snaps that got it under control.

KSC the visitor's center has plenty of benchs. Ya'll coming down?

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
The "cabbage" is really purple broccoli. Imagine my surprise. I DID NOT plant any purple broccoli! I still have something else and I don't know what it is. Do I eat the leaves? do I wait for something crunchy to pop up from a stem?

The brussel sprouts are not even as big as kernels of corn.

If I was a goat, life would be so much easier.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Did not think that this winter could/would be warmer than the last. Ah well...how's the corn?

There'll be no room for a spring garden here cause the winter garden won't die. AND the crazy gun-toting herb lady sold me cruciferous, n I don't know what they are. Not cabbage, not broccoli, not kale. Maybe collards or cauliflower. The caulie's are hiding like shy birds under a dozen wings, is there really a cauli in there?

Waiting on a lb of barley from BountifulGardens, and burnett seeds,breathe-easy soap is still hardening, soon I hope to get some stuff on the way.

Are there lots of benches at KSC? We've never been, but we can't walk for long distances.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
GARRY



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
12:00 AM FST January 24 2013
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI ISLAND (Southern Cooks Island)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (975 hPa) located near 13.4S 166.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly goes visible and peripheral surface reports

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent near low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band on visible with 1.1 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=4.0 MET=4.0 and PT=4.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east southeast with slight intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.3S 164.8W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.0S 163.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.8S 160.4W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
Vertical Cross section of Geopotential Height anomaly



The daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated, and they are normalized by standard deviation using 1979-2000 base period. The anomalies are calculated by subtracting 1979-2000 daily climatology, and then averaged over the polar cap poleward of 65°N.

The blue (red) colors represent a strong (weak) polar vortex. The black solid lines show the zero anomalies.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Quoting whitewabit:


Have been keeping my fuzzy tail inside during the real cold temps ..

Not worried about the pipes till about 10 below, car battery doin good, car anti-freeze down to -30 so good there ..

May get some snow later in the week ..


Glad everything isn't busting up. You northerners know how to survive. If that hit here we'd be crippled for not knowing what to do for the pipes & such:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Two nights Trey webcast starting tonight..

Trey Anastasio Band Port Chester Run To Be Webcast At LivePhish.com

Wednesday and Thursday (January 23rd and 24th), Trey Anastasio Band will perform back-to-back gigs at the Capitol Theatre in Port Chester, NY. Both shows will be webcast live at LivePhish.com. Each webcast is available for pre-order now for just $12.99 for one and $19.99 for both. You can also order a Trey Anastasio Band Tour t-shirt along with the webcast or downloads of each show.

LivePhish.com will broadcast an HD shoot with high quality audio mixed live. You can tune in on your large screen TVs via HDMI-equipped PCs or Macs, as well as on Android devices. To Pre-order, visit
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
176. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
PETA was 93S. 95P is gone, 96S is new.

Cool & dry out there today. The 70º line for a high should lay just south of Titusville.


Wabit~ I bet you are ready for spring.. Hope you aren't freezing your furry tail off & your house pipes are still intact. Car okay.. It's getting that brutal cold up there that tends to ruin things.

Hades~ You too. Stay warm & thanks for the updates!


Have been keeping my fuzzy tail inside during the real cold temps ..

Not worried about the pipes till about 10 below, car battery doin good, car anti-freeze down to -30 so good there ..

May get some snow later in the week ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31212
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
94S still wrecking havoc with it's rains in South Africa.

Mozambique has started to evacuate some 55,000 people after heavy rains caused sea levels to rise to dangerous levels in parts of the country, officials say. "We are asking people to move to safer areas," a spokeswoman for the national relief agency said. The south and centre have been placed on red alert because of the floods, which have claimed several lives. The worst affected areas are in the southern Gaza province, where a number of rivers are currently above crisis levels.

Emergency teams are on stand-by and motorboats have been dispatched to help transport people to safety, the AFP news agency reports. The evacuees will be brought to temporary shelters. Some of them have been set up in the capital, Maputo. "We estimate there are 55,000 people affected," Rita Almeida from Mozambique's Disaster Relief Management Institute said. The town of Chokwe, home to a dyke, is particularly vulnerable, she added. "We are registering very high water levels in the Limpopo and Inkomati rivers that could flood the town," Ms Almeida said. From Sunday to Monday, almost 185mm (7 inches) of rain fell over the Limpopo basin, the AFP reports.

International observers have described the situation as critical. There are fears that the dyke in Chokwe could break, which would lead to chaos in the evacuations. "If that dyke breaks, all those people will have to move more rapidly," the country chief of the World Food Programme, Lola Castro, said. Neighbouring South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana have also been hit by severe flooding. In South Africa, floodwaters claimed several lives and left hundreds stranded after the Limpopo river burst its banks on Monday.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
PETA was 93S. 95P is gone, 96S is new.

Cool & dry out there today. The 70º line for a high should lay just south of Titusville.


Wabit~ I bet you are ready for spring.. Hope you aren't freezing your furry tail off & your house pipes are still intact. Car okay.. It's getting that brutal cold up there that tends to ruin things.

Hades~ You too. Stay warm & thanks for the updates!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
172. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE PETA, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
11:52 AM WST January 23 2013
===========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Peta (993 hPa) located at 20.3S 117.5E or 80 km northeast of Karratha and 115 km west of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Peta has formed just off the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 55 knots are expected between Karratha and Port Hedland today as Peta moves towards the coast. Gales may extend towards Mardie this evening if the system moves further to the west.

Squally thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, and a Flood Watch has been issued for the Pilbara.

The system is expected to weaken tonight after it crosses the coast. Although the remnants of Peta may move back off the west Pilbara coast later in the week, it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues coastal areas from Port Hedland to Mardie, including Karratha
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
171. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
12:00 PM FST January 23 2013
======================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANUA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOUTHERN COOKS BETWEEN SUWARROW AND PALMERSTON

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (990 hPa) located near 13.6S 168.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center elsewhere

Organization has slightly improved past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.5 degrees irregular central dense overcast with a band, giving DT=3.5. MET=3.5 and PT=3.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.7S 167.5W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.9S 166.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.2S 163.1W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
170. whitewabit (Mod)
OH ! did I tell you ??

I"m ready for Spring !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31212
169. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
The high was 71.5º, wind up to 23mph. Went down to Malabar earlier. It was very windy on the river.

Hey Beachfoxx~ we do have too many tar balls on the beach around here at times. Seems like there is several 1000gal spills a year between here & the Bahamas.


Cloudsat of the storm off the NE.


You are a bit windy down there .. made it up to 13 degrees here today after a low of 0.9 degrees at 7:30 this morning .. just didn't quite make the zero mark .. really felt bad for the little ones waiting on buses this morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31212
The high was 71.5º, wind up to 23mph. Went down to Malabar earlier. It was very windy on the river.

Hey Beachfoxx~ we do have too many tar balls on the beach around here at times. Seems like there is several 1000gal spills a year between here & the Bahamas.


Cloudsat of the storm off the NE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Hi Skye,

Too many gallons of oil being spilled on our waters, it seems to be a daily thing... Of course, we see more & hear more about these events after BP - we need to find solutions, ways to prevent it. Ways to better project our waters!
Hope all is well with you and yours!!! I'm jealous of your 70 degree WX! Hopefully we will see 70 later this week. 😃
Quoting Skyepony:
The owner of a salvage company in the Bahamas says crews are trying to contain roughly 1,000 gallons (3,785 liters) of oil that spilled into the Atlantic off the northernmost island in the archipelago. Raymond Darville of Overseas Marine Group Ltd. says the spill occurred early Sunday near an oil and gas storage facility in Freeport Harbor on Grand Bahama island. Darville says he does not know exactly how the spill occurred. But he says a ship was trying to refuel alongside a barge at the time an oily sheen began to spread near the mouth of the harbor. The country's environment minister could not be reached for comment. Last month, roughly 3,000 gallons (11,355 liters) of oil spilled into the ocean from a cargo ship accident off Grand Bahama.
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High around 70º today..


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
The owner of a salvage company in the Bahamas says crews are trying to contain roughly 1,000 gallons (3,785 liters) of oil that spilled into the Atlantic off the northernmost island in the archipelago. Raymond Darville of Overseas Marine Group Ltd. says the spill occurred early Sunday near an oil and gas storage facility in Freeport Harbor on Grand Bahama island. Darville says he does not know exactly how the spill occurred. But he says a ship was trying to refuel alongside a barge at the time an oily sheen began to spread near the mouth of the harbor. The country's environment minister could not be reached for comment. Last month, roughly 3,000 gallons (11,355 liters) of oil spilled into the ocean from a cargo ship accident off Grand Bahama.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Hope you guys are staying warm tonight up north. It's pretty mild here. Moon next to Jupiter is a sight.


That storm over South Africa has killed 6 & is bursting banks.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
163. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
She is almost 60 degrees warmer than where I am at the 7PM hour.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
162. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 08U
8:55 AM WST January 22 2013
===========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 19.4S 120.2E or 195 km east northeast of Port Hedland and 270 km southwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest just off the Pilbara coastline. If the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales with wind gusts to 55 knots could develop between Pardoo and Dampier during Wednesday possibly extending west to Onslow late in the day. Squally thunderstorms are expected with locally heavy rainfall.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Onslow

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.7S 119.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 20.0S 117.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.8S 116.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.6S 114.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Convection has developed overnight about the center indicating some development of the low under low vertical wind shear, upper level outflow and high ocean heat content [SST>31C]. Dvorak assessment at T1.5 with a 0.3 curved band arguable. Surface observations show only modest pressure falls and broad scale low level forcing remains weak.

Although conditions remain generally conducive for development of a small system in the next 12-24 hours, computer models [numerical weather prediction] don't suggest intensification to cyclone strength. However, numerical weather prediction generally has lower skill in such a scenario and hence the precautionary warnings.

Forecast motion is to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the coast under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge. A more southwesterly motion to the Pilbara coast is expected on Wednesday as a mid-level trough approaches from the southwest. Later on Wednesday and Thursday the circulation should weaken due to the combination of land influences and increasing shear with the mid-level center moving inland.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
161. whitewabit (Mod)
Brrr .. your 57 degrees warmer then us up here ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31212
94S & 95P are new. GARRY & OSWALD have been named.

94S doesn't have a floater & is affecting land.. Here it is in red. Click pic for more info on it..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
159. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 22 2013
======================================

STORM WATCH FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

GALE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 11.9S 171.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 11 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Overall organization remains good. Deep convection persistent near low level circulation center past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system. Garry is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean wind. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral, giving DT=3.0, MET=3.0, and PT=3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it eastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.0S 170.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 12.2S 169.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 12.6S 167.3W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 21 2013
===================================

Over southern Africa, an inland low has evolved for several days by generating heavy rainfalls over widespread areas: Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa (130 mm reported at 00z over the last 12 hours at Thohoyandou, South Africa) and southwestern Mozambique. Surface obs and visible satellite imagery allow to locate at 1000Z a low estimated at 1003 hPa near 23.8S 33.8E moving east southeastward at 15 knots.

The minimum should reach waters of the Mozambique channel tonight. Convective activity is strong inland over the low, but oversea also in the south-eastern semi-circle of the system. Upper level divergence is very good poleward near the Subtropical Jet and cold air exists within high level in the southwestern part of the system. This environment is favorable for deep convection.

Conditions should be rather favorable from tomorrow, but especially from Wednesday for evolution to a tropical system, but it is difficult to forecast its intensity (sufficient sea surface temperature, very good divergence, but poor supply on poleward edge.) Last runs of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a crossing from west to east over the Mozambique Channel between Tuesday and Saturday, but they do not deepen very significantly the system. However, this system should generate very disturbed weather on the South of the Mozambique Channel and on the Southwestern part of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is weak. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 08U
8:46 PM WST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 18.8S 121.4E or 130 km southwest of Broome and 340 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest off the Pilbara coastline. Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Tuesday, but if the system does reach cyclone intensity then gales with wind gusts to 55 knots could develop between Pardoo and Dampier on Wednesday morning possibly extending west to Onslow later in the day.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.0S 120.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.4S 119.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 20.1S 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.2S 115.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
Good outflow/divergence aloft and weak vertical shear is helping convection slowly focus near the centre of the weak low level circulation. The concentration of convection has improved compared with the same time yesterday despite weak synoptic scale low level convergence and competing convection in the heat trough over land during the diurnal peak. However there are no significant pressure falls occurring in the vicinity and the surface circulation remains weak and poorly defined, as evidenced by the earlier [0318Z] Oceansat pass.

In favour for development is the fact that the circulation is already developed in the low to mid-levels,is experiencing only low to moderate wind shear, will mover over waters of high ocean heat content [SST>31C], and the flow is anticyclonic in the upper levels. Despite this, most models don't suggest intensification to cyclone strength without broadscale low level forcing. Much will depend upon whether convection continues to focus near the low level circulation center overnight. If this eventuates, a faster than typical development rate of a small system is expected. Numerical weather prediction models generally has lower skill in such a scenario and hence the precautionary warnings.

Forecast motion is to the west southwest, roughly parallel to the coast under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE OSWALD, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
10:57 PM EST January 21 2013
===========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Oswald (992 hPa) located at 15.4S 141.4E or 35 km west northwest of Kowanyama and 60 km south southwest of Pormpuraaw has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a category 1 cyclone, remains in the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to move north to northeast near the coast and remain a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast between Aurukun and Kowanyama early on Tuesday.

Gales with gusts to 50 knots are occurring on the coast around Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw, and are expected to extend northward towards Aurukun as the cyclone approaches. Monsoonal gusts are expected to affect coastal areas north of the cyclone to Cape York.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and Cape York for the remainder of today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors. Tides are also expected to abnormally high, exceeding the highest tide of the year, about all remaining parts of the west coast of Cape York Peninsula during Tuesday's high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 141.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.9S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.8S 143.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.3S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.5 degree wrap on a log 10 spiral. DT is 2.5. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT based on DT. FT held at 3.0 due to constraints.

North to northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Numerical guidance moves the system to the north or north northeast over the next 12 hours, keeping the tropical cyclone near the coast, with the potential to cross over to land at any time in the next 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
Hades~ I happened to see that on Cloudsat earlier. Didn't realize what I was looking at.. Here it is. Click pic for orientation & all.




Rob~ That is a great pic by mauidave. The weather could be worse.

It's been a sleepy overcast for me with the kids not much willing to appease the idea of sleeping half a day. Had fun anyway.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37340
Sweet fog and pony show!

Glad that you got at least a glimpse of the sun this eve.
All this gray is a bit depressing!
Chin Up Skye.
Tomorrow is another day!
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153. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731
152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

Over southern Africa, an inland low has evolved since a few days over Botswana (at least since
Wednesday) generating heavy rainfalls over widespread areas: Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa (160 mm reported at 0600z over the last 24 hours at Thohoyandou, South Africa), southwestern Mozambique and Lesotho. Surface obs show that a center exists near 21.6S 28.0E (1003 hPa central pressure according to nearby QNH seen on METAR) and moves eastwards at 10-15 knots.

The disturbed weather area associated with the low should reach waters of the Mozambique channel on Tuesday where conditions could be conducive for development into a tropical cyclone. Latest output from the ECMWF ensemble system support that scenario and show some significant genesis probability on Wednesday and beyond. Within the next 24 hours, the disturbed weather associated with the low will spread over southern Mozambique.

For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. The potential becomes poor to fair Tuesday and Wednesday over the southern Mozambique channel.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44731

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 96.6 °F
Dew Point: 73.8 °F
Humidity: 48%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Updated: 1:48 PM EDT on July 24, 2014
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Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 74.5 °F
Dew Point: 71.0 °F
Humidity: 89%
Wind: Calm
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Updated: 1:48 PM EDT on July 24, 2014
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Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 80.0 °F
Dew Point: 72.0 °F
Humidity: 78%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 1:12 PM EDT on July 24, 2014

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