Skyepony's WunderBlog

We still have some room on the roof...

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST January 10 2013
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 3.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as moving north slowly.

System #2
-----------

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Sonamu (1006 hPa) located at 3.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

So according to your header....I can go ahead and plant potatoes in NW FL?? I thought the frost would damage/kill em?

Great info!! Will plant some as soon as I get off work!!

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
8:57 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (956 hPa) located at 16.3S 114.9E or 630 km north of Exmouth and 535 km north northwest has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape and gradually intensify.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth including the Karratha area during Friday, then extend west to south to Coral Bay Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Gales may extend south to Cape Cuvier during Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Friday night and Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Cape Cuvier

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.7S 114.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 113.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.2S 112.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 24.4S 111.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
The system has continued to slowly intensify this evening. Position is based on satellite imagery and is consistent with an SSMI microwave image from 0827Z, which shows indications of an eye. Dvorak embedded centre pattern, MET and pattern give a CI of 5.0. CIRA AMSU and CIMSS AMSU are about 75 knots. Intensity currently stands at 80 knots.

Motion has been south southwest at around 10 knots, but is forecast to slow a little over the next 6 to 12 hours. There is some confidence in forecasting a continued south southwest track taking the system west of Exmouth. However a severe coastal impact in the west Pilbara is still a possibility.

North to northeasterly shear of about 10 knots is expected to continue. Given that the system is moving south southwesterly at around 10 knots, the storm relative shear is low. Thus slow but steady development is forecast with the system reaching category 4 during tomorrow then plateauing at 95 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST January 10 2013
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 5.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as almost stationary

Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 10 2013
===============================

Low level circulation is approximately located near 13.0S 81.6E at 1000Z. ASCAT of this morning depicts a poorly defined 10-15 knots low level circulation. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa. Associated convection is weak to moderate and very fluctuating.

Within the next 3 days, Numerical weather prediction models do not significantly deepen this low on a slow westward track. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for a significant deepening because of the persistence of an easterly vertical wind shear and a poor low level convergence.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression remains poor.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
18:00 PM FST January 10 2013
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08F (1003 hPa) located at 12.0S 178.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in past 24 hours. Convection persistent to the east of the system. The system lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it south southeastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
3:01 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 16.8S 114.3E or 570 km north of Exmouth and 515 km north northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during Friday afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Gales may extend south to Cape Cuvier during Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Friday night and Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Cape Cuvier

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.0S 113.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.0S 113.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.2S 112.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.4S 111.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
The system has continued to intensify. Position is based on satellite imagery and is consistent with microwave image from 1307Z, which shows indications of an eye. Dvorak embedded center pattern, MET and pattern give a CI of 5.5. At 1200Z SATCON has 96 knots, based on ADT 71 knots, and CIMSS AMSU 107 knots. Intensity currently stands at 90 knots.

Motion has been southwest at around 9 knots, but is forecast to slow a little over the next 6 to 12 hours. There is some confidence in forecasting a continued SSW track taking the system west of Exmouth. However a severe coastal impact in the west Pilbara is still a possibility.

North to northeasterly shear of about 10 knots is expected to continue. Given that the system is moving south southwesterly at around 9 knots, the storm relative shear is low.

The title says to plant something today, so I started some radish sprouts. They make a nice change from alfalfa sprouts in salads and sandwiches.

Those cloud pictures you took are awesome. Do you recall what was happening with the weather that day?

has anyone actually used a sprout grower thingy? considering adding some sprouts to my diet, they're supposta be all healthy n stuff.

maybe like this one
Link

Quoting aquak9:
has anyone actually used a sprout grower thingy? considering adding some sprouts to my diet, they're supposta be all healthy n stuff.

maybe like this one
Link

Hey Aqua !! think you should read up on it .. some of what I found ..

Worldwide, the largest outbreak linked to sprouts took place in Japan in 1996, when 6,000 people got sick and 17 died after eating radish sprouts contaminated with E. coli. This type of bacteria was also implicated in outbreaks involving sprouted seeds in several US states between 1997 and 2004. In June 2011 an E. coli outbreak linked to sprouts, centered in Germany, resulted in more than 47 deaths and several thousand infections.
How Sprouts Can Become Contaminated

Scientists believe that the most likely source of contamination is the seeds that are used to grow the sprouts. Seeds may become contaminated by animal manure in the field or during storage, and the conditions required to grow sprouts (like warmth and humidity) are ideal for the rapid growth of bacteria. Poor hygienic practices in the production of sprouts have also caused some sprout-related outbreaks of foodborne illness in the past.

Don't know if you could wash or soak the seeds in anti-bacterial soap or not .. buying seeds from a good source would help too ..

Good to see you !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
3:00 PM WST January 11 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.6S 113.4E or 495 km north northwest of Exmouth and 810 km north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometers per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.4S 112.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4S 111.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.4S 110.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.1S 108.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive eye now evident on visible and infrared imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest [0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures from late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into early next week.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
8:50 PM WST January 11 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (931 hPa) located at 18.1S 112.5E or 460 km north northwest of Exmouth and 770 km north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: TT6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth overnight Friday, then extend south to Cape Cuvier later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometers per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Denham and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark overnight Friday and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Cuvier

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.2S 111.7E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.4S 111.1E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.7S 109.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.0S 108.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive eye now evident on visible and infra-red imagery. Intensity of 100 knots based on the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 6.0 [eye pattern]. the surrounding shade has fluctated between black and white with an OW eye. At times the eye has been quite elongated.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current
trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures from late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into early next week.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST January 11 2013
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 11.0N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. This depression is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET January 11 2013
================================

Area of disturbed weather east of the basin:
Taking benefit of the strengthening transequatorial low level monsoon inflow and of a good polewards upper level outflow, the low has organized since Thursday late. As northeasterly vertical wind shear decreased aloft, convective activity has developed near the low level circulation center. It remains however fluctuating and keeps on undergoing a northeasterly wind shear constraint, low level vortex is therefore partially exposed in the north of the deep convective activity that extends up to 300 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle.

At 0900Z, the low level circulation center is located near 12.9S 80.5E slowly drifting northwestwards over the past 6 hours. OSCAT 0633Z swath reveals a 15-20 knots well defined clockwise circulation locally reaching 25-30 knots in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1004 hPa thanks to buoy 53006.

On and after Sunday, upper level environmental conditions are expected to improve. The wind shear becomes weak, with good divergence aloft in relationship with the strong aforementioned
polewards outflow channel and with an additional but relatively weak outflow channel building
equatorward.

ECMWF and ALADIN numerical weather prediction models forecast a significative intensification next weak on a northwestwards track at short range on the steering influence of the low level subtropical ridge existing southward then at medium range on a southwestwards track under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a mid-level ridge building in the east.

At every forecast lead time, synoptic environment shows several possible steering influences (mid level northwesterlies equatorward, a building mid-level ridge in the east, a cut-off in the south and a subtropical ridge in the southwest). Northwestwards then southwestwards expected motion should therefore be slow.

For the next 36 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression remains poor but is upgraded to moderate to fair beyond.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
18:00 PM FST January 11 2013
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depresion 08F (1002 hPa) located at 14.0S 179.1W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the past 24 hours. Convection persistent in the northeast semi-circle of the system center in the last 24 hours. The system lies to the east of an upper ridge in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually move it southward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

Hi wab. Guess I'd need to be careful about buying seeds. Glad you brought this to my attention.

Yeah, I gained a lotta weight, BUT healthy eating will help me lose it. Broccoli and raab, yes it's still edible when it flowers.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FIVE (05U)
5:30 AM WST January 12 2013
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (925 hPa) located at 18.5S 111.9E or 445 km north northwest of Exmouth and 730 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south to southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth during Saturday, then extend south to Cape Cuvier later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area during Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometers per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast. However given the consistent movement of Narelle to the south to southwest movement closer to the coast is now less likely.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Denham and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark Saturday morning and again Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Cuvier

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham

Dvorak for Narelle is now 6.5 giving 1 minute sustained winds of 130 knots.

At 9:00 AM FST, Tropical Depression 08F (1002 hPa) located at 14.6S 178.7W is reported as moving slowly. Position fair based on multi-spectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection persistent in the northeastern quadrant of system. TD 08F lies under an upper anticyclone in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually move it southward with some intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE TO HIGH.

--
99P tropical disturbance summary from Fiji Meteorological Services

Quoting Skyepony:
Good planting by the moon ends with the day. Next few are good for killing, weeding & preparing beds.

Got 99P up. Not real impressive at the moment.

NARELLE

Narelle is back down to T6.0 (100 knots 10 min)

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
9:12 AM WST January 12 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (935 hPa) located at 18.8S 111.8E or 435 km northwest of Exmouth and 720 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to move to the south southwest and pass well west of the Northwest Cape on Sunday.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Exmouth later Saturday, extending south to Cape Cuvier on Sunday. Gales may extend south to Denham late on Sunday or Monday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast than expected.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast overnight tonight and continue into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham including Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 111.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.7S 110.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.1S 109.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 28.6S 108.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle appears to have peaked in intensity overnight, but recent imagery shows a weakness in the eastern eye wall, most evident on microwave. Dvorak DT estimates have fluctuated between 5.0 and 6.5 from 1700 to 2300 UTC with recent images trending down. The most recent three hour average would indicate a FT of 5.5 although a CI of 6.0 is maintained suggesting an intensity of 100 knots. AMSU/SATCON estimates are slightly lower.

Moderate easterly shear may be having an impact on the system and as the cyclone moves south of 20.0S it should encounter sea surface temperatures less than 26C on Sunday. Hence a weakening trend is forecast, but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion is south southwest for the next 48 hours and then a more southerly track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that a coastal impact is not the likely scenario. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area, as models suggest a slight expansion of gales on the eastern side. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be off the west coast later on Sunday and Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast Saturday night and Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay at least.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the Pilbara, the remnants of the system may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.

Without any explanation this was added tonight on my blog just below the Spacetime Light Cones

730am As I spied up at the sky through one slat of the blinds pulled slightly, just then dark cloudlets— remnants of yesterday's overcast clouds— were visible in the North as the Sun painted them rosey; and then it stopped in less than 5 minutes. This is just one example of being in-tune with Nature. Had I looked earlier the Goddess may not have dipped her brush on the pallet to hilite the effect. A great question would be, "What brought me to look in the first place, without doing reverse cause/effect back through time ?" until I remembered
there is no time when you live in the Now. time is just a movement of hands on a clock, LED digits on a screen, shadow on a sundial. But I provide timestamps to help others, who actually read this blog, to review the dead past of an earlier now moment.





Waterstar_and Skye

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BISING
11:00 AM PhST January 12 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "Bising" has maintained its strength as it continues to move north northwestward

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Bising (1004 hPa) located at 13.8N 126.3E or 215 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
=============
1. Catanduanes

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.Estimated rainfall amount is from 05-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon over the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas due to Tropical Depression "Bising" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the local disaster risk reduction and management councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
18:00 PM FST January 12 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1001 hPa) located at 15.0S 179.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving slowly. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared and visible imagery imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection persistent in the northeast quadrant of the system center in past 24 hours. TD08F lies under an upper anticyclone in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Most global models agree on a southeastward movement with some development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 179.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.8S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.8S 175.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Quoting Skyepony:
OrangeRoses~ Love that moment as day goes away & the clouds go a fire. You can sense it if you try hard enough & almost never miss it.

You found my hasbro version:) It's really quite fitting.

Also fitting I had been listening to this.
http://www.youtube.com/O3al4sCn0B0

The ponies were a painting I thought on the deviant art website.

Thanks... u deserve a Mmwahhh! Also noticed you like Phish from Ur video postings. So, for the record, take these words you must know but others may not.

Scents And Subtle Sounds

If you would only start to live one moment at a time,
You would, I think, be startled by the things that you would find.
Like scents you never noticed, and many subtle sounds
Like colors in the landscape and textures on the town
Then the winds would lift you up into the sky above.
Where you'd be treated to a view of everything you love.
(Everything you love. Everything you love.)
And if the moment passes, you should try it once again
For if you do it right you'll find the moment never ends.

If you would stop and notice that we number every day
But allow the many moments left uncounted slip away
You dont have to count them, just enjoy them one by one
And things would take a different hue and sparkle in the sun
The winds would lift you up into the sky.

The winds would lift you up into the sky above
Where you would see a trail of treasure, memories you love
A rainbow record of the thoughts and moments you've enjoyed
Arcs behind the Earth as spectral colors in the void.




I Balance "Scents And Subtle Sounds" with
Kashmir

I am a traveler of both time and space, to be where I have been
To sit with elders of the gentle race, this world has seldom seen
They talk of days for which they sit and wait and all will be revealed

Talk and song from tongues of lilting grace, whose sounds caress my ear
But not a word I heard could I relate, the story was quite clear



[some of the above was changed for clarity]

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
8:47 PM WST January 12 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (943 hPa) located at 19.7S 111.4E or 370 km northwest of Exmouth and 620 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: TT4.5/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to move to the south southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape on Sunday.

If the cyclone moves on a track which brings it closer to the coast then gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Onslow and Cape Cuvier on Sunday and may extend south to Denham early Monday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast Saturday night and continue into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cape Cuvier to Denham, including Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.9S 110.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.5S 110.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 27.1S 109.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 31.8S 111.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has begun to show indications of weakening during Saturday with the effects of some easterly shear and restricted outflow on the eastern flank apparent. The extent of cold cloud has dramatically decreased during the afternoon and the eye pattern is no longer clearly visible. Dvorak DT estimates have fallen to 4.5 with the CI held at 5.5. SATCON estimate at 0900 UTC had a 10 minute mean wind of about 97 knots with ADT at 5.7.

Weakening is likely to continue as the system is affected by moderate easterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C south of 20S] on Sunday. Narelle is likely to remain a cyclone until Tuesday when it should weaken below cyclone strength well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be later on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast Saturday night and on Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 12 2013
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1001 hPa) located at 11.8S 80.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving north at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 79.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.8S 79.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.9S 78.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 13.6S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
As the easterly vertical wind shear decreased aloft, system has organized during last night. Convection has consolidated over the center since the end of the night. Low level circulation has improved according to the last TRMM at 2316z, last ASCAT data shows a more symetrical structure of the winds.

The slight easterly persistent constraint is expected to weaken clearly on Sunday, then upper level environment become more favorable to intensification, mainly on monday with the building of a second outflow channel, but the slow speed of displacement should limited the intensification potential.

The system is forecast to tracker under the effect of combined and antagonist steering flows, first westwards on the northern edge of the low level subtropical ridge, but combined with the steering influence of the equatorial ridge.Then towards southwest on Monday under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a building mid-level ridge in the east. On Wednesday, the system tracks westwards as the ridge is located south, but always with slow speed due to the persistent equatorial mid-level ridge.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
0:00 AM FST January 13 2013
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1001 hPa) located at 15.0S 179.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization and convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap giving DT=1.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models agree on a southeast movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 179.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 17.4S 178.4W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 19.3S 176.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST January 12 2013
===============================

At 12;00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 125.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. This depression is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

05U, 06R, and 08F..

active in all southern hemisphere RSMC regions now

Sorta late with this, but found some info on sprouts. Basically it says you can use bleach to sterilize your seeds and apparatus. Gotta soak the seeds anyhow to get 'em going.

"January 12th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint"

I guess this is a free day for me =) lol

Special Weather Bulletin
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
Jan 12/2157 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP FOR TONGA.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
12:00 PM FST January 13 2013
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP FOR TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 15.0S 178.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared and visible and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on LOG 10 spiral giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.6S 178.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.6S 177.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 18.7S 175.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
8:36 AM WST January 13 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (960 hPa) located at 21.2S 111.0E or 335 km west northwest of Exmouth and 490 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue to move toward the south southwest and will pass west of the Northwest Cape during Sunday.

If the cyclone moves on a track which brings it closer to the coast then galeswith gusts to 100 kilometers per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier during Sunday and may extend south to Carnarvon and Denham late Sunday or early Monday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast and down the west coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Denham.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 110.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 25.0S 109.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 29.9S 109.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 35.0S 114.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has continued to show a weakening trend during the early hours of Sunday morning with the effects of cooler ocean temperatures evident. North easterly shear has reduced to around 10 knots at 1800 UTC. Shear is expected to remain low tomoderate before westerly shear increases on Monday.

Dvorak DT estimates have fallen to 4.0 with the CI held at 4.5. ADT, AMSU and SATCON are in agreement and final intensity estimate is 75 knots [10-min mean].

Weakening is expected to continue due to cooler Sea surface temperatures, and accelerate on Monday as the system is affected by westerly shear. Narelle is likely to remain a cyclone until Tuesday when it should weaken below cyclone strength well off the west coast.

Expected motion is generally to the south southwest on Sunday and Monday. The greatest risk period for gales on the coast is during Sunday in the Exmouth-Ningaloo area. There is still sufficient uncertainty on how far off the coast Narelle will be on Monday to maintain a precautionary watch for west coastal areas south to Denham.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast on Sunday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast likely to push tides above the highest astronomical tide at least towards Shark Bay.

Although widespread heavy rain is not expected in the west Pilbara, upslide to the southeast of the cyclone may bring some rain to the Gascoyne and southern parts of the state from Sunday to Tuesday

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20122013
4:00 AM RET January 13 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 11.8S 80.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle locally reaching gale force winds and very rough seas within a 20 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.8S 80.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.1S 79.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 13.0S 79.1E- 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.4S 78.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Since 2130z, a 0.60-0.70 curved band has consolidated on METEOSAT7 enhanced infrared imagery. Nevertheless 1809z ASCAT swath suggests weaker winds than aforementioned mean Dvorak analysis (2.5+). System is therefore maintained at tropical depression stage at 0000z. Gale force winds likely exists locally near the center in the southern semi-circle.

The easterly ongoing constraint is expected to weaken clearly today and the upper level environment becomes more favorable for intensification, mainly on Monday as a second outflow channel is expected to build.

Intensity forecast keeps on being however rather tricky in relationship with the small forecast size of the system and with the uncertainty about the influence of the oceanic cooling generated by the system itself as it tracks slowly. Present intensity forecast is therefore slightly weaker than the previous one.

The system is forecast to track under the steering influence of antagonist combined steering flows. It is expected to track westwards at short range undergoing the steering influence of the low level subtropical ridge, but slowed down by the combined steering influence of the equatorial ridge. Then system is then expected to track southwestwards on Monday under the steering influence of a mid-level low in the south and a building Mid-level ridge in the east. On Wednesday, the system is expected to track westwards as the mid-level subtropical ridge rebuilt in the south, but always with slow motion due to the persistent equatorial mid-level ridge.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

A slow moving monsoon trough is strengthening over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A tropical low (1004 hPa) located near 11S 129E is expected to develop further as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea, before moving out of the region by Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Very Low

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

The low mentioned may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday, or more likely on Wednesday when conditions become more favorable. Its potential for development will be monitored over coming days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==================================
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: High

I guess It's time for round 2 of the cyclones near Australia. =/

hope it is not another Category 5, though I don't really see any CMC models for much.