Tropics & What Not

By: Skyepony , 6:25 PM GMT on January 01, 2013

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Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
99S

98P


13S FELLENG




A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
January gardening is best done for most the state during the warm spells. The cooler spells, just keep it watered & it should about tend itself. * means last month to plant.

North FL is planting more this month, nearly the full season range of veggies. Plant beets, Broccoli, Brussel sprouts, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, celery, kale, Kohlrabi, leek, Mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL The 1st tastes of summer get planted this month & just about all the cool season veggies..plant eggplant, peppers, tomatoes, watermelon, beets, broccoli*, cabbage*, carrots, cauliflower*, celery, collards, kale*, kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

South FL Plant everything except cantaloupe, okra, sweet potatoes & strawberries.

24th-26th Favorable Planting Days: First Two Days Are Best For Planting Aboveground Crops. Especially Good For Peas, Beans, Cucumber, And Squash. Last Day Is A Most Fruitful Time To Plant Beets, Carrots, Onions, And Other Hardy Root Crops. Also Good For Transplanting.
27th-30th A Barren Time. Best For Killing Weeds, Briars, Poison Ivy, And Other Plant Pests. Clear Woodlots And Fencerows.
31st Favorable Day For Planting Root Crops. Fine For Sowing Grains, Hay, And Forage Crops. Plant Flowers.
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Local Weather~
Cool & dry


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Rising Moon (RenoSoHill)
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Sudden heavy rains caused flooding in low lying areas in the Sylva, NC area.
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252. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
Skyepony has created a new entry.
27windows~ I've never seen that but could imagine after seeing all these rockets leave.

A large very close (less than 1/10th the distance to the moon) is expected 2/15.

2012 DA14 Feb 15 0.09 LD 58 m

So far we've evaded the flu! Angel looked egg bound the other day but recovered.. Hope all is well with you & yours!


Hades~ You're probilby freezing too.


Wabit~ Too cold! Warmth will probibly be back soon.


aqua~ I made a real fluffy rye yesterday. You're talking about the fun moment between bread machine & setting it out for final rise right:)


theshep~ That summed it up well. Thanks for the tunes. I've been too busy to bring them.


New blog coming soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Hi Skye!

Hope all is well in your family farm healthy world =)

Skye, do you know what a meteorite looks like when entering our atmosphere during the day? I think I saw one today, and my husband and I saw the same thing a month ago. Never saw anything like this before! Kind of makes me nervous, to be honest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
249. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
22:00 PM RET January 31 2013
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (968 hPa) located at 20.0S 50.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the south

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the south

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.7S 51.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 23.7S 51.6E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 27.6S 52.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 31.3S 53.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
==========================
Overall presentation has few evolved over the past 6 hours with a system that still presents an embedded center pattern over enhanced infrared radar imagery. DT is based on MET (4.5). Current intensity is slightly downgraded at 75 knots. Winds extents radius have been calibrated with 0521z ASCAT path.

Last microwave pictures (SSMIS, TRMM) show that Felleng has tracked south southwestward over the past six hours. Last available numerical weather prediction models outcomes still forecast a south to south southeastward track through 96 hours under the steering influence of mid-level ridge existing east then northeast of the system. The present forecast take in account this change of direction for the next few hours.

This evening and tonight system should be under the upper level ridge, so, official RSMC forecast is a relatively stable intensity within the next 12 hours, even if a limited re-intensification is not totally excluded. Beyond, system should begin to weaken due to degrading environmental conditions (cooler sea surface temperature, strengthening westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear).

On Sunday, the system should begin its extratropical transition but winds should remain strong.

Inhabitants of Mascaregnes islands should continue to closely monitor the evolution of this system as peripheral influence could be significant over portions of those regions within the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
248. whitewabit (Mod)
BRRRR

Peoria, Illinois (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 48 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
14 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -1 °F
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 3 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 26 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Rising)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
247. whitewabit (Mod)
Hi Aqua !!

What a difference .. 2 daays ago 64 degrees and now today 13 degrees ..

Going down to 0 degrees tonight or a few degrees below that .. wind chills will be -15 to -20 .. will be the first time for below 0 readings in almost 2 years .. hope it will kill a bunch of bugs and their eggs .. they were really bad last year ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
NE Fla is gorgeous today. Finally, not sweating under the sun.

Nice to see a few checking in, here and there.

Two loaves honey whole wheat in the oven, felt so good to work the lively dough.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Like the little squall that whipped through last PM.

Fresh, fast, and then...she's gone.
:)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Had just enough rain to wet the surface. Cat doesn't want out there..not even 60º & a bit windy. Sun just came out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
243. Bogon
Noisy rain and wind made the cats nervous last night. The weather station at the airport recorded about 0.6 inch.

The squall line came through after dark, so I haven't seen the aftermath. Don't reckon there was a tornado, because the house is still standing. :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd missed that..My place is close to there. The one north is a bit higher & had a little more than 1/2 that. I should call my friends up there tomorrow.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Did MAR898 weather station REALLY get 8+ inches of rain? seeing a few pics outta the area...wondering how ya'lls property is.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
everything is fine.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
That was the 617th Atlas launch tonight. Beautiful!

No decent pics though..sorry.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 31 2013
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (960 hPa) located at 18.0S 51.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadratn, and up to 75 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 140 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.4S 51.5E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 21.1S 51.5E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 25.0S 52.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 28.7S 53.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Overall presentation has not improved over the past 6 hours with a system that still present an embedded center pattern over enhanced infrared imagery that tends to be less and less defined. Water vapor imagery and the ragged aspect of the southwestern edge of the convective mass suggest that the moderate but increasing southwesterly shear is impacting the system.

At 1721z, an AMSU pass with a good fov gave a 85 knots (10 min winds) estimate. As the overall pattern has degraded somewhat since that time, current intensity is assessed at 80 knots.

Felleng current motion is now south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level ridge existing east of the system and extending southward.The ridge is moving north-east of the system, the track should recurve somewhat south southeastward. Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for the forecast track. The present forecast track is a consensus of the last available models.

The ongoing weakening trend involves a major shift in the intensity forecast philosophy... even if the system should be under the upper level ridge today, the probability of restrengthening appears lower ... as numerical weather prediction fields suggest now that westerly shear should strengthen south of 20S.

Sunday, the system should start its extratropical transition with still some strong winds associated.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar and for the Mascaregnes islands. However inhabitants of that area should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system as peripharical influence could be significant over portions of those regions within the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Nice cloudsat of the storm in the mid Atlantic..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Launch in less than 37 minutes.

Getting camera ready..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Rain says she's alive:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
234. whitewabit (Mod)
From WiKi ...

Rhubarb leaves contain poisonous substances, including oxalic acid which is a nephrotoxic and corrosive acid that is present in many plants. The LD50 (median lethal dose) for pure oxalic acid in rats is about 375 mg/kg body weight,[17] or about 25 grams for a 65 kg (~140 lb) human. (Other sources give a much higher oral LDLo (lowest published lethal dose) of 600 mg/kg.[18]) While the oxalic acid content of rhubarb leaves can vary, a typical value is about 0.5%,[19] so a rather unlikely 5 kg of the extremely sour leaves would have to be consumed to reach an LD50 of oxalic acid. Cooking the leaves with soda can make them more poisonous by producing soluble oxalates.[20] However, the leaves are believed to also contain an additional, unidentified toxin,[21] which might be an anthraquinone glycoside (also known as senna glycosides).[22]
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
233. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Is rhubarb leaves poisonous or some sort of hallucinogenic?


Asheville streets flood as storm pounds region


I've always been told they are poisonous .. but nothing to back it up ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
Is rhubarb leaves poisonous or some sort of hallucinogenic?


Asheville streets flood as storm pounds region
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
WARM SSW WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NE FL AND AROUND 80 ACROSS
SE GA. IF MAX TEMP IS REACHED AT JAX (84)...IT WILL BE A NEW RECORD
HIGH AND ALSO THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR JANUARY.


I'm picking Jasper tomatoes, from seeds planted in October.... AS WELL.

modified- AND the unknown cruciferous leafy green plant from the crazy gun-toting herb lady, might be collards. I'm eating it.

re-modified- or maybe it's rhubarb.....
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FELLENG (07-20122013)
16:00 PM RET January 30 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng (950 hPa) located at 16.1S 52.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the northern and southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.5S 51.9E - 95 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.9S 51.7E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.2S 51.8E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.8S 52.4E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
Last satellite pictures depict a less well defined eye. Microwave AMSU at 10.02z shows that the eye is again eroded in its west. So, there was no gain of intensity within the past six hours.

Felleng current motion is now southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level ridge existing east of the system and extending southward. On and after Thursday, the ridge moving north-east of the system, the track should recurve south southeastward. Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for the forecast track. The present forecast track is a consensus of the last available models, close to the last ECMWF outcome.

On the forecast track, environmental conditions remains favorable for intensification through Friday. Sea surface temperatures are very good at 28-29C, wind shear becomes weak under the upper level ridge. A very good upper level outflow has built equatorward and is improving eastward. On Saturday the outflow equatorward should remove.

Saturday evening or Sunday morning Felleng should encounter environmental conditions degrading. Sea surface temperature more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken sharply.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar and for the Mascaregnes islands. However inhabitants of that area should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Good morning everyone. Similar to a few weeks ago it looks like this feature that is mid-Atlantic at the moment should form a low that gets shunted south by a strong high building in off Spain. Expected to be stronger than the last, outside chance of a Feb invest this week, though it's expected to fall apart at the end of five days..so probibly not.

Fresh ASCAT of it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Garry & 97P are gone. 98P is decoupled. 99S is new. FELLENG is harrassing it hard.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
FELLENG
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
224. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Yellow Alert for Reunion Island

second time this year. (Tropical Cyclone Dumile raised the alert earlier)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 30 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng (950 hPa) located at 15.1S 53.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 52.7E - 95 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.3S 52.0E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.0S 52.0E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.3S 52.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
The eye pattern has improved within the past 6 hours. Eye is warming within a very cold ring of deep convection around. SSMIS picture at 02.04z depicts a ring of intense convection that is now very well defined.

Feleng current motion is now south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system. Available numerical weather prediction models remains in good agreement about the forecast track.

On the forecast track, environmental conditions remains favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear becomes weak under the upper level ridge. A very good upper level outflow has built equatorward and should improve eastward by 24 hours.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Saturday evening or Sunday morning it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperature more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken sharply.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. However inhabitants of that area and inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands should continu to closely monitor the progress of this system. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Quoting Skyepony:
Shouldn't let this day pass without a moment for Space Shuttle Challenger & all of those that suffer in it's passing.

True that!
Good catch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
221. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Shouldn't let this day pass without a moment for Space Shuttle Challenger & all of those that suffer in it's passing.


Such a sad day in space ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
As the tail passes through the Gulf of Mexico some places Cedar Key & Apalachicola will see a 1 to 1 1/2ft surge then the tide go out farther than usual.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
219. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (995 hPa) located 22.7S 175.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery with animation.

Deep convection not visible over the system due to high shear. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 300 HPA. System lies along a surface trough in high shear environment. Upper divergence good to the far east of the system. Upper level jet just to the north of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it west northwestward and then southward with no further intensification.

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory on TD11 unless re-development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
218. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 29 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Felleng (968 hPa) located at 13.7S 55.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants, and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 105 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 135 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 145 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.6S 54.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.8S 53.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.7S 52.0E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.5S 51.8E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
The system keeps on intensifying and show now an eye pattern on visible imagery surrounded by cold clouds tops on infrared. Current assessment is on good agreement with latest available Dvorak estimate that range from 57 knots (PGTW) to 79 knots (SAB). Satcon (associated with a good AMSU pass at 2135z) is at 70 knots (10 min winds).

Felleng keeps on moving westward to west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level subtropical high pressures. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 12 hours then progressively recurve southwestward and beyond 36 hours south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system.

On the forecast track, especially from Wednesday, environmental conditions become very favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge and a very good upper level outflow building poleward.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Friday it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperature more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. However inhabitants of that area and inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Shouldn't let this day pass without a moment for Space Shuttle Challenger & all of those that suffer in it's passing.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
ASCAT SE of Greenland

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
215. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Disturbance #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST January 29 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (995 hPa) located 22.2S 175.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery with animation.

Deep convection not visible over the system due to high shear. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 300 HPA. system lies along a surface trough. Upper divergence good to the far east of the system. Upper level jet just to the north of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Global models have picked up the system and move it west northwestward and then southward with no intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Just dropping in to check on you.
Glad your radar is back.
Interesting and informative stuff here, per usual.
Thanks Skye!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
213. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting whitewabit:
Hey Skye .. The temperature roller coaster continues .. high tomorrow should reach between 65 and 67 degrees .. and then crashes to a high of 34 on Wednesday ..


the lows going to be near 0F by the end of this week here.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
212. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FELLENG (07-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 29 2013
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Felleng (984 hPa) located at 13.5S 56.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.2S 55.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 15.2S 53.6E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.1S 52.1E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.2S 51.7E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
==========================
For the last 6 hours, a warm point has appeared surrounded summit cloudy still very cold. Curved band Dvorak analysis on >1.0 wrap gives a DT at 4.0-. Advance Dvorak technique is stable at 3.9. Current intensity is upgraded at 55 knots.

Felleng keeps on moving westward to west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level subtropical high pressures. 1800z CIMSS data show that southeasterly constraint has decreased (5 knots).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 12 hours then progressively recurve southwestward and beyond 36 hours south southwestward under the steering influence of mid-level high pressures existing northeast of the system.

On the forecast track, especially from Wednesday, environmental conditions become very favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature are very good at 28-29C, wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge and a very good upper level outflow building poleward.

From Thursday evening system is expected to take a southward to south southeastward track. Friday it should encounter environmental conditions slowly degrading. Sea surface temperatures more and more cool and a gradual strengthening westerly to northwesterly wind shear. Therefore Felleng is expected to weaken.

Given all the above, a direct threat seems rejected for the eastern coast of Madagascar. Felleng is expected to pass near Tromelin island at about 100-150 km in the west northwest during Wednesday morning. On and after Wednesday, a substantial weather deterioration is expected on Mascareignes archipelago.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
People of ECFL rejoice! Our NEXRAD is back online:)


Wabit~ No wunder the flu has been so bad this year..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
210. whitewabit (Mod)
Hey Skye .. The temperature roller coaster continues .. high tomorrow should reach between 65 and 67 degrees .. and then crashes to a high of 34 on Wednesday ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
Cloudsat caught the east side of FELLENG.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
A piece of the puzzle as to why the Arctic is so warm.. The melt ponds on first year ice is letting 3X more light through the ice & 50% more heat from the sun into the ice & ocean. First year ice is smooth so the melt ponds spread out & are larger than the ones on mutliyear ice with it's rougher surface due to collisions, upheaval & such.

Something else neat in there was blue ponds are shallow on multiyear ice the dark blue/black ponds are on first year ice.

[1] Arctic sea ice has declined and become thinner and younger (more seasonal) during the last decade. One consequence of this is that the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is changing. While the role of surface albedo has been studied intensively, it is still widely unknown how much light penetrates through sea ice into the upper ocean, affecting sea-ice mass balance, ecosystems, and geochemical processes. Here we present the first large-scale under-ice light measurements, operating spectral radiometers on a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) under Arctic sea ice in summer. This data set is used to produce an Arctic-wide map of light distribution under summer sea ice. Our results show that transmittance through first-year ice (FYI, 0.11) was almost three times larger than through multi-year ice (MYI, 0.04), and that this is mostly caused by the larger melt-pond coverage of FYI (42 vs. 23%). Also energy absorption was 50% larger in FYI than in MYI. Thus, a continuation of the observed sea-ice changes will increase the amount of light penetrating into the Arctic Ocean, enhancing sea-ice melt and affecting sea-ice and upper-ocean ecosystems.


Thinkprogress does a nice summary here.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
TRMM of 13S FELLENG. Bulk of the moisture is on the east side at the moment. Click pic for smaller quicktime movie.




Stay warm Bogon!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
206. Bogon
No surplus of heat in these parts. The temperature hovers just above freezing. Skies are gray; the forecast augurs drizzle and fog.

Ah, winter. Last week the prediction said sunny and warmer today. I reckon the weather model changed its mind.

The heat pumps and thermostat maintain a steady 70° indoors. Still, I've had about enough. If I spot a rift in the clouds, I'm outta here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FELLENG (07-20122013)
16:00 PM RET January 28 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (996 hPa) located at 13.2S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 57.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 14.0S 55.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.3S 52.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.4S 51.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
System keeps on moving generally westwards on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures. Available scatterometry data at 0724z OSCAT swath suggest a field of wind becoming less assymetrical, with always a good feeding monsoon flow.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track at short range. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 24-36 hours.

On this forecast track, the weak to moderate southeasterly to southerly vertical wind shear is expected to limit intensification within the next 24-36 hours. Then, environmental conditions improve progressively in relationship with the weakening vertical wind shear and with a second upper level outflow building poleward on and after Thursday. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Environmental conditions are then very favorable for further intensification. However, the vicinity of the Malagasy coastline should be a limiting factor.

On and after Wednesday, system is then expected to undergo the northerly steering influence of the mid-level ridge in its east and to track southwards.

Given all the above, inhabitants of eastern Malagasy coastline should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
Scattered showers abound. First spotted them late afternoon coming from the east on a sudden shift in wind. Hung out on the Indian River down in Grant. Sunset & moonrise was stunning.

Brair~ Thanks for adding! That's a sweet song.

Aqua~ Happy constructing. Nice to see you are staring the year off right.

It's been that hot here too. Midnight & 70º, inside the house it's 79º~ still warm from the day's heat.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37346
I enjoyed reading #200 with all the moon-related info. In that vein, here's the original (I think) release of the song "I See the Moon" from 1953.



I see the moon, the moon sees me
shining through the leaves of the old oak tree
Oh, let the light that shines on me
shine on the one I love.

Over the mountains, over the sea,
back where my heart is longing to be
Oh, let the light that shines on me
shine on the one I love.
Member Since: June 21, 2004 Posts: 78 Comments: 3926
It is an excellent time to work on putting aside the old and outdated in one's personal life and making plans for new and better conditions.

We have torn down the old 6x3 cedar shed, and are building a new 8x10 shed! pulling up sod, leveling the stones, and the new shed arrived in boxes on a semi. So, we gotta build that, too.

one's personal life
yeah, well...my personal life is spent under the sun, not a ceiling. So we are excited about this.

and the 1st 12 days of Jan? I guess it's gonna be a long hot year, then. No cute pajamas here- just tanktops and undies.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732

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