Local Gale & World Tropics

By: Skyepony , 3:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2006

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For the locals who have intrests in the area NOAA wants comments on the tropical cyclone hazards graphics before November 15th. Here's more on the product. Make comments for Wind Risk Graphic here & comments on the Threat graphics here. I was just gonna post the following but they go indepth a little. Shocked at the question ~ is it appropriate for us to be supplying these graphics.

I thought these graphics were great during Wilma & Ernesto. They couldn't be simpler to read, they're colorful & hot link easily where I could further diseminate the info in my blog. I think all the local NWS in hurricane prone areas should have them.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
Watching the wind


518 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR THE EAST COAST. BOATERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LARGER INLAND LAKES TODAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BUILD SEAS OVER 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS POUNDING THE COASTLINE TODAY.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON TODAY...AND STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SEVERAL HIGH TIDES WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
EROSION IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE ROUGH SURF CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD NOT ENTER THE SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEAS TO 10 FEET.
HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS VENTURING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MID WEEK BUT THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

VOLKMER

Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

93L is gone ~ The N Atlantic looks dead, observe the shear map above...

The E Pacific has an interesting area that may become an invest. Could be 3 or more or less days til we see something more than a depression. The models are less convincing then they were, the ITCZ is at 10� or less & shear is a little higher then before. Got some good convection rolling off Panama that may join up with the energy from once 93L, we'll have to wait & see.

Central Pacific's invest invest is gone.

Other invests include two for the W. Pacific, both look poor, 90W looking slightly better todaY.

S Hemisphere...has two invests...98S & a new one 99P.

There's CIMARON in the w. Pacific this one bombed as I thought it might, made landfall in the NE Phillippines as a Cat 5. Now weakend to 20kts & 1004mb it has done a little loop & is now forcasted went SW & is now a shadow of it's former self. Here's the Philippines: NDCC media update - Situational Report No. 2 re effects of Typhoon "Paeng" (Cimaron). I'd say it's the best looking storm in the world right now...shpws how dead the tropics are.

The FSU model page wasn't working, here is an alturnative link to most the models.

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64. weatherguy03
11:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Thank you Skye. #3 and #8 still confuse me!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
63. Skyepony
11:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Here's that link '03 & any other FL voters.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
62. Skyepony
1:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
'03~ Yeah~ when I get that far...look for it either this afternoon or tonight. Need hay & there's the littlin.

I'm posting today's local hazard here for now, sorry for the lack of update this morning, maybe later.

456 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST. A LONG FETCH
OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BRING
HIGH SURF TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH BREAKERS UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET AFFECTING THE
COASTLINE.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS... WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY. THERE WERE REPORTS OF MINOR TO MODERATE
EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH THE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 730 AM AND 830 AM MONDAY MORNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LARGE OCEAN SWELLS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES. THE HIGH
SURF CAN ALSO KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD
NOT ENTER ROUGH SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WILL MAKE BOATING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS
MAY ALSO MAKE NAVIGATION THROUGH INLETS MORE DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE
BEACHES THROUGH MID WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY
AND MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

VOLKMER

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
61. weatherguy03
1:39 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Skye. Do you have a link that you can send me explaining the Florida Amendments that are on the ballot? Thanks.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
60. Skyepony
1:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
LowerCal~ Thanks for the update...trying to get my voter cheat sheet done for tommarrow.

Finn~ I'm e-mailing ya

Rand~ hmmm a surface low...sounds interesting. The MLB local has a bit in their hazerdous outlook as well.

& Hey Gamma!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
58. LowerCal
6:08 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
NOGAPS, not GFDL - fixed it. :[
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
57. LakeWorthFinn
3:19 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
Hi Skye, posting from Cocoa Beach! Hubby & I are here on an overnight stop on our mini "road trip weekend", and we'll go see the Space Center tomorrow, then head home. Thinking of you, you're soooo close! We met with 03 and his family today for lunch, wonderful people, had a great time! Have a nice Sunday night, TTYL
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
56. LowerCal
2:58 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
Good evening Skye. (That's a nice phrase.) I hope you enjoyed your play day.

That's too bad about those batteries. I was looking forward to those pics. I'm guessing the surf was big enough to strand some sea life on the beach, hence the vultures.

According to the latest TWDEP the GFS and NOGAPS are seeing some development S of Mexico. The models also show some interesting things right off the SE US coast too.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
55. Skyepony
2:51 PM GMT on November 05, 2006
Yes the spelling is particularly bad today, off to play instead of correcting it.

The batteries in my camera were dead yesterday, so of course the surf was huge, everything from tiny birds to vultures was there & the cloud formations was awesome.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
54. seflagamma
8:09 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Good Saturday to you Skye,

Hope you are enjoying the day. Still at work for me until 7pm ... then my weekend begins.

We are very windy down here in Broward county, cloudy and sort of cool; suppose to get to 80 today.

Just wanted to pop in and say HI!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40958
53. Skyepony
2:48 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Randrewl~ Sorry about the game...Happy windy day to you too!

Jer~ Could be, but I've lived here so long alotta people look familiar:) I enjoyed your pics as well. You deserve a wish for a happy windy day as well. I'm going to beachside today, may bring back some wave pics..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
51. sebastianjer
12:41 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Hi Skye
Wow that rhymes :) Saw you dropped by my blog earlier thanks. Don't get up to Melbourne often except occaisonal trip to Home Depot or Lowes if they don't have something I need down here. Wife and I like to go to RoadHouse up there and make it there every so often. Probably just have one of them "every man" faces lol. Well have a great weekend, enjoyed your pictures by the way. Talk to you soon
JER
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
49. Skyepony
12:18 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
& the football game?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
47. LowerCal
8:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
Hmm, I hope you didn't wrap that garden too tight. ;)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
46. Skyepony
8:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
The gale has brought a squally downpour:).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
45. Skyepony
2:25 PM GMT on November 03, 2006
I got a little on & off. Looks like it will slide down from the N throught the day. Tommarrow looks worse.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
43. Skyepony
4:23 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Figures, the gfs would fall inline...

Boating looks like it would be miserable this weekend
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
42. LowerCal
2:49 AM GMT on November 03, 2006
Latest GFS 18Z now says one big and one little in East Pac.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
40. Skyepony
2:45 PM GMT on November 02, 2006
Good morning everyone:) I kinda crashed early while the husband installed some stuff on the computer lastnight, kinda working on helping the new software get settled in this morning.

Awesome aviation weather tools:) Thanks so much Yellow Pitts & Ogal... I'm working on the long term forecasting thing other than seeing where one might spin up, a potentail ULL may form a week to 10 days out or a front ~ I got a long way to go, but the big puzzle with all it's little pieces just facinates me so I'll keep trying. Thanks for a few pieces.

On the local that Randrewl posted they've been calling for this wind a few days now, but this mornings forecast is for even higher winds then what was expected. Shall prepare garden today for the onslaught of wind..

Here's what's on tap for today..
...SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT SETTING UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG AFFECTING
PARTS OF EC FL EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH TROF REACHING
FROM SE PENINSULA OFF THE FL EAST COAST. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ALREADY OCCURRING NW SECTIONS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS WEAK
LOWS ALONG THE TROF LIFT AND PUSH THE FEATURE FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALSO
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW WILL HELP ERODE FOG.
WILL WATCH TRENDS BUT ATTM AM PLANNING TO HANDLE FOG MENTION IN NOWS
AND AVN PRODUCTS.

COLD FRONT REACHING THROUGH C GA AND FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL
SWEEP DOWN THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS IN FOR SRN SECTIONS TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION FAR SOUTH WITH A
LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THERE TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND
DELAY IN THE PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS AS A 1032MB HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN MORE NOTICEABLE AIR MASS
CHANGE NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS STILL REACHING
LOW/MID 80S TODAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOW/MID 60S WITH WINDS
STARTING TO PICK UP BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
The fog is just beginning to give way to sunshine here.

As expected the little low that spun up around here yesterday has moved on...all hail shear!

It looks like the disturbance in the E Pacific has moved away from land a bit. I'll have to check this out further as well as the c. Pacific storm which looks like an oddity a bit later. I'll try to get an update in around 6-7pm gmt.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
38. OGal
11:52 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Hey Skye, try Aviationweather.gov. As you know my son is a pilot too. This will give you some good additonal weather information.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
37. OGal
11:50 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Mornin Skye, great gift from Yellow Pitts. We are socked in. The fog is thick here. Hope you have a good day and that kitty continues to feel better.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
34. YellowPitts
6:22 AM GMT on November 02, 2006
Hi again

Pleased to hear your animals are being looked after.

As you know I'm a Pilot and we use weather service charts. Significant Weather charts are a product of World Area Forecast Centre(WAFC) in Bracknell, UK, and may be a source of good information to you for projection purposes (once you get to use it correctly). It basically gives you upper level (FL 200 - FL 550) wind and cloud in actuals updated every three/six hours.

Knowing that your weather has an African engine, I think this may make you a long term forecaster?

HERE IS A CURRENT WEATHER SAMPLE:-

WAFC

To get more of these and for research, go here:-
Link

Have a nice evening. It is 08:23am Thursday here at this time. So goodmorning too!!
Bye
Leon
33. LowerCal
9:15 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Skye, glad to see you recieved a little of the needed rain this morning.

Thanks for the heads-up on EPac development. If it does come to pass the LBAR may be taking it over my home in Los Angeles County in about a week, lol.

LBAR Strengths: ... LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. ...

Weaknesses: LBAR does not perform well whenever there is significant vertical wind shear...
source

It's strength in the current situation is entertainment value. :)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
32. LowerCal
8:54 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thought you might find this image and loop interesting Skye.

1605 UTC WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
...
A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT BEGAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AT LEAST 20 KT. AN ARC CLOUDS LYING 240 NM S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE.

$$
BERG

click to enlarge

This image won't update but the loop does.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9305
31. Skyepony
7:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
nice still shot Randrewl...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
30. Skyepony
7:43 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thanks 03:)

Yeah, I've been discussing, in my blog, something forming in the area eventually, on the end of the last front for probibly a week now.

I'm rapped up in doing laundry so I'll be in & out for a while.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
28. weatherguy03
7:23 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Here Skye:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
206 PM EST WED NOV 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SE US WITH
BROAD TROF OVER THE W 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER IS PROGRESSING SE. AT THE SFC...WK LOW PRES
CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON SFC ANALYSES...RADAR AND VSBY SAT IMAGERY NR
THE CENTRAL FL E COAST. GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY SLOWLY N ALONG THE ATLC COAST WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OFFSHORE ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS. LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS
COVERS THE SE 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH FAIR WX CU ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO S TX.

.SHORT TERM...GFS AND NAM IN BETTER AGREEMENT WRT SFC FEATURES AND
PRECIP FIELD...BUT GFS APPEARS TO HAVE HANDLED PRECIP THE BEST
DURING THE PAST 6 HRS. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
HAS DECREASED OR GONE AWAY IN THE 12Z GFS RUN...AND THIS IS LIKELY
AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKER SFC LOW ON THE MODEL.
AS STATED ABOVE...THE SFC LOW DOES EXIST AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE LOCAL WX FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO.


ALTHO THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY NE ALONG THE OLD SFC
TROF...THE FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLD TO LOW-END SCT POPS
MOVING N ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THRU THE EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT...
MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC TROF
SHOULD STAY WELL S OF THE AREA. NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THU AFTN. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL...
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE BRIDGING THE FEATURE DURING THIS TIME...SO SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AT BEST. ADDITIONALLY...GFS INDICATES
FAIRLY STABLE AIR PRECEDING THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A NARROW RIBBON
OF LI VALUES NEAR ZERO IMMEDIATELY AHEAD.

Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
26. Skyepony
7:19 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Thanks:) We were posting about it this morning at the end of his previous blog. Take that Miami Discussion over there, revive his blog. I could use some verification since that's the 1st offical word I've seen on it with my line of thinking.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
24. Skyepony
7:07 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Very interesting, great find & written in the mid-morning style to boot. I wonder if the lack of attention isn't due to the unfavorable shear & the forecast of a strong front in 48-72 hrs. If shear was lower, this would have been really interesting.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
21. Skyepony
6:51 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Ogal, hope ya got a little more rain before it lifted out. Thanks for the happy kitty thoughts. Sorry to hear about yours but that was a long & being yours~ sure a happy life. Things like that is what made me do a little happy dance, this morning, at the all good on the blood results.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
20. Skyepony
6:46 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Afternoon Randrewl:)
This morning a distinct COC had formed west of me on radar with the satalite & quickscat showing the cloud tops displaced just off coast to the east. Probibly has something to do with the near 30kts of shear...

on radar the center moved west during the morning & has fallen apart, now it's moving back to the NE.

Early this morning the pressure was above 1017 & slowly falling til 2 hours ago where we're losing a mb an hour. It's the time of day to drop but it was fast enough to drive the ponys wild. I got 1013.4 now, your lower than me. The swirly seems to be lifting out NE of here now. RGB loop~ shield your eyes~ it's naked.

Had nice rain, shear isn't gonna let it do anything to FL but a little rain. Interesting feature that has totally not been mentioned by NHC...not even the showers & the local this morning looked to be some sort of code..lol. The mid morning report is usually something an 8 year old could read & understand, this reads more like the middle of the night analisis.
1025 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING UP THE FL PENINSULA IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 80KT H25 JET OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
MORNING KXMR SOUNDING MEASURED A SATURATED AIRMASS THRU H60 WITH PW
VALUES 2.2". THE RAIN PATTERN IS ACTING LIKE A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AS
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT H85-H70 THETA-E BOUNDARY
OVER THE PENINSULA...DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF RESPECTABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABV H85.

PDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY AFTN. LCL
STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM ESE AT H70 TO SW BY H60...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST CONVECTION OVER THE OPEN ATLC FROM MOVING ONSHORE. PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIMITED OVER THE SRN CWA DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN AS RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SINKING AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY UP FROM THE SRN
PENINSULA. WILL UPDATE FCST TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NRN CWA THRU
EARLY AFTN...ALSO WILL DROP SKY COVER/POPS BACK A BIT OVER THE SRN
CWA.
BRAGAW

I'll leave a pic for arcives sake..

This won't update.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
18. OGal
3:24 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Hey Skye, our rainfall has not been that great. We have had .08 which is not much but I will take anything I can get. Maybe there is more out there that will drop over my house.

So glad your kitty is doing better. Kitties are that age are always more vulnerable to that upper respitory stuff. Our Persian that died last year made it to her nineteenth birthday but had serious kidney problems for the last three years of her life. We had give her saline solution once a day the last year she was alive. We called it "filling up the cat". She was a trooper and never let out a beep.

If ya could keep the rain comin in this direction!!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
17. Skyepony
1:18 PM GMT on November 01, 2006
Some local with my coffee
315 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...CONVERGENT BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF NEAR
THE EAST COAST STILL PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. MLB
NWS OFFICE HAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF SFC TROF COUPLED WITH SOME INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR
THE EAST COAST BUT ACTIVITY WILL REACH WELL THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
00Z NAM INDICATING A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER WEST HALF OF
PENINSULA...MAINLY AFFECTING LAKE CO IF IT OCCURS AS DEPICTED. MAX
TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...BUT AREAS W/O
SIGNIFICANT HINDRANCE FROM THIS SHOULD REACH MID 80S INTERIOR AND
LOWER 80S COAST. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BEST
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK CLOSER TO EAST COAST.

THU...TROPICAL MOISTURE (MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS) WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL KEEP THE 1000-850 MB LAYER QUITE MOIST...AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE JET POSITION ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FASTER TIMING OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONFINE THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST...POSSIBLY STRETCHING AS FAR NORTHWARD
AS THE SPACE COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE.

I've had 2.69" of much needed rain so far with this. There looks to be a COC just west of me. Will be interesting to see what the local says later this morning. Hope we all get to share in the rain:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466
16. Skyepony
1:20 PM GMT on October 31, 2006
Morning all, having some local with my coffee..

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PULL
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
A LITTLE MORE ESE-SE AND HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED ON SRN COASTAL SECTIONS MON EVENING AND SHOULD
SEE A COUPLE SHOWER BANDS PUSH ONSHORE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE MARINE STRATOCU. TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE MON VALUES...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPS WHICH LOOK A LITTLE HIGH...EXPECT NR 80/LWR 80S NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND MAINLY LWR 80S INLAND WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN MID/UPPER 60S WITH MODERATING
EFFECT OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAY STAY AOA 70 ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST S OF
THE CAPE.

WED...SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS
THAN MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE STATE.

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
Today looks beautiful! Though may have to turn the AC back on later. In a few day they are forcasting some big waves & some winds...

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39466

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 69.8 °F
Dew Point: 67.3 °F
Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 50.5 °F
Dew Point: 45.9 °F
Humidity: 84%
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Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 51.0 °F
Dew Point: 48.0 °F
Humidity: 88%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:12 PM EST on December 28, 2014

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