Skyepony's WunderBlog

Local Gale & World Tropics

Posted by: Skyepony, 3:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2006

For the locals who have intrests in the area NOAA wants comments on the tropical cyclone hazards graphics before November 15th. Here's more on the product. Make comments for Wind Risk Graphic here & comments on the Threat graphics here. I was just gonna post the following but they go indepth a little. Shocked at the question ~ is it appropriate for us to be supplying these graphics.

I thought these graphics were great during Wilma & Ernesto. They couldn't be simpler to read, they're colorful & hot link easily where I could further diseminate the info in my blog. I think all the local NWS in hurricane prone areas should have them.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
Watching the wind

518 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR THE EAST COAST. BOATERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LARGER INLAND LAKES TODAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BUILD SEAS OVER 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS POUNDING THE COASTLINE TODAY.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON TODAY...AND STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SEVERAL HIGH TIDES WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
EROSION IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE ROUGH SURF CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD NOT ENTER THE SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEAS TO 10 FEET.
HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS VENTURING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MID WEEK BUT THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

VOLKMER

Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.

Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP

SHEAR

STEERING CURRENTS

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

93L is gone ~ The N Atlantic looks dead, observe the shear map above...

The E Pacific has an interesting area that may become an invest. Could be 3 or more or less days til we see something more than a depression. The models are less convincing then they were, the ITCZ is at 10� or less & shear is a little higher then before. Got some good convection rolling off Panama that may join up with the energy from once 93L, we'll have to wait & see.

Central Pacific's invest invest is gone.

Other invests include two for the W. Pacific, both look poor, 90W looking slightly better todaY.

S Hemisphere...has two invests...98S & a new one 99P.

There's CIMARON in the w. Pacific this one bombed as I thought it might, made landfall in the NE Phillippines as a Cat 5. Now weakend to 20kts & 1004mb it has done a little loop & is now forcasted went SW & is now a shadow of it's former self. Here's the Philippines: NDCC media update - Situational Report No. 2 re effects of Typhoon "Paeng" (Cimaron). I'd say it's the best looking storm in the world right now...shpws how dead the tropics are.

The FSU model page wasn't working, here is an alturnative link to most the models.

Categories: Tropics

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51. sebastianjer 12:41 AM GMT on November 04, 2006
Hi Skye Wow that rhymes :) Saw you dropped by my blog earlier thanks. Don't get up to Melbourne often except occaisonal trip to Home Depot or Lowes if they don't have something I need down here. Wife and I like to go to RoadHouse up there and make it there every so often. Probably just have one of them "every man" faces lol. Well have a great weekend, enjoyed your pictures by the way. Talk to you soon JER Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197

53. Skyepony 2:48 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Randrewl~ Sorry about the game...Happy windy day to you too! Jer~ Could be, but I've lived here so long alotta people look familiar:) I enjoyed your pics as well. You deserve a wish for a happy windy day as well. I'm going to beachside today, may bring back some wave pics.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

54. seflagamma 8:09 PM GMT on November 04, 2006
Good Saturday to you Skye, Hope you are enjoying the day. Still at work for me until 7pm ... then my weekend begins. We are very windy down here in Broward county, cloudy and sort of cool; suppose to get to 80 today. Just wanted to pop in and say HI! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

55. Skyepony 2:51 PM GMT on November 05, 2006
Yes the spelling is particularly bad today, off to play instead of correcting it. The batteries in my camera were dead yesterday, so of course the surf was huge, everything from tiny birds to vultures was there & the cloud formations was awesome. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

56. LowerCal 2:58 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
Good evening Skye. (That's a nice phrase.) I hope you enjoyed your play day. That's too bad about those batteries. I was looking forward to those pics. I'm guessing the surf was big enough to strand some sea life on the beach, hence the vultures. According to the latest TWDEP the GFS and NOGAPS are seeing some development S of Mexico. The models also show some interesting things right off the SE US coast too. Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8972

57. LakeWorthFinn 3:19 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
Hi Skye, posting from Cocoa Beach! Hubby & I are here on an overnight stop on our mini "road trip weekend", and we'll go see the Space Center tomorrow, then head home. Thinking of you, you're soooo close! We met with 03 and his family today for lunch, wonderful people, had a great time! Have a nice Sunday night, TTYL Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6960

58. LowerCal 6:08 AM GMT on November 06, 2006
NOGAPS, not GFDL - fixed it. :[ Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8972

60. Skyepony 1:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
LowerCal~ Thanks for the update...trying to get my voter cheat sheet done for tommarrow. Finn~ I'm e-mailing ya Rand~ hmmm a surface low...sounds interesting. The MLB local has a bit in their hazerdous outlook as well. & Hey Gamma! Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

61. weatherguy03 1:39 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Skye. Do you have a link that you can send me explaining the Florida Amendments that are on the ballot? Thanks. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

62. Skyepony 1:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
'03~ Yeah~ when I get that far...look for it either this afternoon or tonight. Need hay & there's the littlin. I'm posting today's local hazard here for now, sorry for the lack of update this morning, maybe later. 456 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST. A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BRING HIGH SURF TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH BREAKERS UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET AFFECTING THE COASTLINE. THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS... WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY. THERE WERE REPORTS OF MINOR TO MODERATE EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH THE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 730 AM AND 830 AM MONDAY MORNING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACT... GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LARGE OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES. THE HIGH SURF CAN ALSO KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES TODAY SHOULD NOT ENTER ROUGH SURF. ...WIND AND SEA IMPACT... EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WILL MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY. MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS MAY ALSO MAKE NAVIGATION THROUGH INLETS MORE DIFFICULT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. $$ VOLKMER Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

63. Skyepony 11:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Here's that link '03 & any other FL voters. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

64. weatherguy03 11:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2006
Thank you Skye. #3 and #8 still confuse me!! Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

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West Eau Gallie Melbourne, FL
Elevation:	29 ft
Temperature:	67.3 °F
Dew Point:	66.9 °F
Humidity:	99%
Wind:	Calm
Wind Gust:	0.0 mph
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Forge Mountain Mills River, NC
Elevation:	2540 ft
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US Etowah, NC
Elevation:	2376 ft
Temperature:	59.0 °F
Dew Point:	59.0 °F
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