Skyepony's WunderBlog

Happy New Year and Happy Gardening!

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
0:00 AM FST January 1 2013
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At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (967 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0 MET=4.5 PT=4.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.O/W1.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement and weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 18.6S 161.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.6S 161.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.2S 163.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 31 2012
===================================

Area of disturbed weather at the extreme East of the basin: Convection remains very fluctuating. According to microwave imagery (SSMIS 0233Z) the low level circulation center is located near 9.5S/87.5E. The circulation is poorly defined. System moves westward at about 10kt. mean sea low pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 15-20 knots near the center. Most of the available numerical weather prediction models don't deepen this system significantly during the next 3 days. Upper level wind shear remains the main limiting factor for the development of this low.

For the next 72 hours, potential for the development of another tropical depression east of the basin is poor to fair.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
16:00 PM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.8S 57.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.4S 57.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 13.5S 56.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 18.1S 54.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.2S 54.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Microwave imagery TRMM at 0701z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization during the past 6 hours, with offset northwest of the low level circulation center.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general southwestwards track for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th. Last available numerical weather prediction models forecast a faster movement on and after 24 hours, so the closest point of approach of Réunion island is forecast about 6 hours sooner than the previous issue.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 36 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 36 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperature.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

Sky ~

Wanted to stop by to wish you and yours A HEALTHY, HAPPY, SAFE AND MORE PROMISING NEW YEAR AHEAD. Heaven knows, we could all use it!



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SORRY, COUNTDOWN CLOCK BELOW WAS ALREADY SET FOR EASTERN STANDARD TIME. ADD AN HOUR PER YOUR REGION OF COUNTRY.

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Happy New Year, Skye!

Let us all meet each other with a smile, for the smile is the beginning of love.
Mother Teresa

From all of us in New Orleans skyepony,

Happy New Year, Skye! Hope it's your best ever!

Happy New Year, Skye Pony
Bonne année, Ciel Poney
Feliz Año Nuevo, del cielo Poni

the rain fell slow
down on all the roofs of uncertainty

since you've been cheerleading for rain my drought-stricken area not coincidentally has gotten some.

We spend January 1 walking through our lives, room by room, drawing up a list of work to be done, cracks to be patched. Maybe this year, to balance the list, we ought to walk through the rooms of our lives... not looking for flaws, but for potential.

~ Ellen Goodman

Wishing you and yours a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Happy New Year Sky.
BTW
Its been a great year for Cabbage.
Your Pics say it all. :O)

Have a great 2013!

Skye, here's to a great year for you and your family.

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