Bopha & 91L

By: Skyepony , 4:33 AM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Atlantic
91L


East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
26W BOPHA


Indian Ocean
99B


Southern Hemisphere
98S



A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In November the planting frenzy continues for all the state of Florida, heaviest for South FL planting some summer & most winter varieties still. Harvest should be picking up too with a mix of some early winter & late summer. The hot fall has found favor with some late okra & looks to be a great season for tomatoes, cauliflower & broccoli with Brussels sprouts having a slow start. It's a good month for local diverse veggie eating. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, kale, Kohlrabi, Mustard, onions, radish. Last month to plant~ spinach, strawberry & collards.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish. Last month to plant spinach, strawberry & turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, potatoes, radish, spinach, tomato, turnips. Last month to plant strawberry.

November 2012
29th-30th Any Seed Planted Now Will Rot.

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Hurricane Sandy's Sand (Skyepony)
Hurricane Sandy brought millions of dollars of sand to East Central Florida. The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach now it's only 4.
Hurricane Sandy's Sand
FullBeaverMoon.. (suzi46)
and the smallest full moon in North America.. This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.
FullBeaverMoon..

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108. Ylee
$200 for a 7" tablet is just too much, IMO. Better off getting something cheap on ebay with 80% of the performance. Paid $80 for my son's tab; I'll let you know how it holds up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
22:30 PM RET November 24 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (987 hPa) located at 14.3S 75.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.4S 73.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.7S 70.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.9S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

Boldwin has shown for a moment a pinhole eye pattern over the past six hours on the infrared imagery. The AMSU-B at 1618 PM UTC confirms that the eye has contracted in the mid-troposphere.

The system is compact and environmental pressure are around 1010 hPa. Consequently, mean sea level pressure is higher than usual for a system of that strength.

Environmental conditions stay rather good aloft the circulation. The wind shear has a little strengthened (about 15 knots according to 1500 pm UTC CIMSS analysis). Upper level divergence is rather good mainly poleward. Sea surface temperature (in the 27-28C range) and oceanic heat contain are also favorable for some further development. This rather favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon.

System is tracking southwestward under the steering influence of the mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. It may stay under this steering influence until 18 to 24 hours.

Late Sunday, northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system is therefore expected to progressively weaken and follow a west to southwestward track under the influence of the subtropical anticyclone. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south. An interaction with the upper level trough that could maintain intensity seems possible according to numerical weather prediction fields. This scenario is highly uncertain it is worth noting that most of the ECMWF ensemble members dissipate the system as soon as Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
106. Bogon
Spent the morning listening to Songs From the Wood. Did not bake a pie. Instead a friend of Wife brought us a pie.

That gives me something else for which to be thankful. I don't know whether I should credit Jethro Tull's good vibes, or whether "all things come to him who waits."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ahhh, cabbage. Had 20 of'm a coupla years ago, deep purple. Gave'm all away- never even tasted them.
This year, a co-worker cooked green cabbage for the Thanksgiving dinner- in long shreds, slowly, with a hamhock- oh dear, I am in love. Can't wait to hopefully have cabbage this year, and I WILL eat it this time.

The raab is 2 foot in diameter, but it's all leaves. No raab heads. Is this normal?

Glad you got some gardening under control - -

peace n peas
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
Good Saturday everyone..

Storm in the Bay of Bengal is gone. South Indian Ocean has BOLDWIN. Great storm name or what? 97S is dead. 90W Looking gamely.

Hades~ Thanks for the Boldwin updates. Small & strong for it's pressure.




Planted 120 Vadela onions yesterday & 5 cabbage from a 4 pack. Reclaimed a big bed in the ground. Added alot of compost & potash.

As much as I like the total chaos, skipped black Friday. Hope to hit some small business Saturday in a bit.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
103. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
16:30 PM RET November 24 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (988 hPa) located at 14.0S 75.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 45 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.8S 73.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.1S 70.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.6S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
BOLWIN has shown a ragged eye pattern during most of the day on visible imagery. The eye was more intermittent on enhanced infrared imagery (Best definition at midday).

Available Dvorak estimates at 1130z give an initial intensity at 50 knots (SAB and PGTW at 3.5). However, a 3hr mean of manual T-num is near 4.0. Moreover, a 1039 AM UTC SSMI pass depicts a strong mid level 20 NM diameter eye pattern associated with a contracting eye. Finally, initial intensity estimate is raised at 55 knots.

The system is compact and environmental pressure are around 1010 hPa. Consequently, mean sea level pressure is higher than usual for a system of that strength.

Environmental conditions are good aloft the circulation. The wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge axis (less than 10 knots according to 0900 am UTC CIMSS analysis). However a cirrus arc is detected since 1000 am UTC over the north northeastern outer circulation, suggesting that a some shear may still exist. Upper level divergence is rather good mainly poleward. Sea surface temperatures (in the 27-28C range) and oceanic heat contain are also favorable for some further development.This rather favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon.

Available numerical weather prediction guidance struggle to properly handle the current intensification of this small system. The current intensity forecast is on the path of the previous one. Confidence in this intensity forecast remains lower than usual.

Late Sunday, northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system is therefore expected to progressively weaken. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south. An interaction with the upper level trough that could maintain intensity seems possible according to numerical weather prediction fields. This scenario is highly uncertain it is worth noting that most of the ECMWF ensemble members dissipate the system as soon as Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
102. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
10:30 AM RET November 24 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin (994 hPa) located at 13.6S 75.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
25 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 45 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.7S 73.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 71.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.6S 68.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

The system has significantly deepen since the second part of the previous night. Microwave imagery from late last night and this morning show a building eye pattern in both mid and low level. An improving ragged eye has appeared on visible imagery since 0330 AM UTC. The system is compact (mean diameter of near gale force winds estimated at 55 NM according to latest ASCAT pass of 0346 AM UTC) and environmental pressure are around 1010 hPa. Consequently, Mean sea level pressure is higher than usual for a system of that strength.

Available Dvorak estimates at 06:00 AM UTC gives an initial intensity at 40 knots (SAB and PGTW at 3.0). However given the microwave signature and a persistent 0.8/0.9 curved band on classical imagery, initial intensity estimate is locked at 45 knots.

Environmental conditions are now good aloft the circulation. The wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge axis, upper level divergence is rather good mainly poleward. Sea surface temperatures (in the 27-28c range) and oceanic heat contain are also favorable for some further development.This rather favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon.

Available numerical weather prediction guidance struggle to properly handle the current intensification of this small system. The current intensity forecast is stronger than the previous one and is based on STIPS output that suggest that a 15 knots increase in max winds is possible during the favorable window. Confidence in this intensity forecast is lower than usual.

Late Sunday, northerly then north-westerly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system is therefore expected to progressively weaken. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south. An interaction with the upper level trough that could maintain intensity seems possible according to numerical weather prediction fields.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
101. Skyepony
10:49 PM GMT on November 23, 2012
So happy to see everyone for Thanksgiving here & other families. It's been a fun holiday so far.

Do have a product boo though. I got one of these .& they are pushing them for Christmas.. the Nexus7 Tablet. Screen broke in a few weeks with regular use, it was in a case too. These are not portable judging what I experienced as well as many others.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
100. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:25 PM GMT on November 23, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03-20122013
22:30 PM RET November 23 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 12.3S 77.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.0S 74.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.2S 73.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.0S 69.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Convective activity has consolidated near the center since early today and now shows a small curved band in the western semi-circle.

As expected since several days ago, environmental conditions improved aloft the circulation. Wind shear has significantly relaxed and under the upper level ridge axis, upper level divergence is rater good mainly poleward.

In low levels, equatorward inflow is limited in relationship with the convergence area existing in the north from equator to 5.0S and low level vorticity is mainly sustained by trade winds inflow southward. This favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon. Over a globally southwestward track, system should then reach tropical storm stage within this schedule. Late Sunday, northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system therefore expected to progressively fill in and track west southwestwards on the subtropical high pressures.

On and after Tuesday, the expected residual low should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south and dissipate inside Wednesday or Thursday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
99. OrangeRoses
2:30 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Wunder if this is the very old song OrangeRoses is thinking of..


LoL !! I didn't check here until just now.
Justin Case(such a strange name) you didn't see this on my blog comments now I learned how 2 embed the youtube video so WU allows it to show here.

Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 708
98. LakeWorthFinn
3:58 PM GMT on November 22, 2012
{{{Skye & family}}}
One of my thanks today is having a friend like you.
Enjoy the day :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
97. palmettobug53
3:21 PM GMT on November 22, 2012
Happy Thanksgiving, Skye!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24931
96. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:55 AM GMT on November 22, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 22 2012
====================================

Vortex over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood centered within half a degree of 13.0N 82.5E.

Dvorak intensity: T1.0

Center is poorly defined. Minimum cloud top temperature is -64C. Wind shear in the order of 20-30 knots near the vortex.

Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay Bengal between 10.5N to 16.0N; 80.5 to 85.0E.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
95. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:48 AM GMT on November 22, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST November 22 2012
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1001 hPa) located at 13.7S 168.0E is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

In the area bounded by 12S 169E, 12S 173E, 15S 174E, 17S 171E, and 12S 169E expect northwest to northeast winds up to 40 knots away from the center

Organization has slightly decreased in the last 6 hours with rain bands detached from convection. However convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours with convection developing to east of supposed low level circulation center. The system lies under an upper level ridge with two outflow channels centered in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and move it south southeastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
94. Alleyoops
8:50 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Thanksgiving46 Pictures, Images and Photos

Thinking of you on this Special day. Blessings to you and your family.
Member Since: April 18, 2007 Posts: 190 Comments: 29418
93. Skyepony
6:08 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Leaving this for later. Should make some good pie making music:)

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
92. Skyepony
5:57 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Wunder if this is the very old song OrangeRoses is thinking of..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
91. GardenGrrl
3:49 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Member Since: March 25, 2007 Posts: 248 Comments: 9240
90. OrangeRoses
3:27 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Bizzy Bizzy busy. The turkeys you're cooking reminded me of a very old song somehow my Dad left lieing around 4 me to discover in the distant future, which I did. Amish Paradise. Happy Thanks Giving good people!

S.P. pony on over sum time 4 a slight surprise. If you can manage 15 minutes the blog also might be of the same.

OR
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 708
89. Grothar
2:29 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25059
87. Proserpina
1:52 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
WISHING YOU AND YOURS A VERY HAPPY AND BLESSED THANKSGIVING

Thanksgiving Images, Quotes, Comments, Graphics
Thanksgiving Pictures - Quotes - Photobucket

For flowers that bloom about our feet;
For tender grass, so fresh, so sweet;
For song of bird, and hum of bee;
For all things fair we hear or see,
Father in heaven, we thank Thee!
~Ralph Waldo Emerson

For each new morning with its light,
For rest and shelter of the night,
For health and food, for love and friends,
For everything Thy goodness sends.
~Ralph Waldo Emerson
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 169 Comments: 18066
86. Skyepony
12:49 AM GMT on November 21, 2012
Hey everyone~ Got all the current blobs & Depressions up.

Thanksgiving preps in full swing. I'm roasting an Amish turkey, baking four pies, making some cranberry sauce & maybe some bread..

Hades~ The BOB storm really blew up. Expected it from 97P.

Wab~ You're going in this with a great plan:)

Aqua~ I'm inspired by my little north garden. So little effort & it looks right again. After Thanksgiving in the freedom of leftovers I plan to tackle the front or atleast part of it. The survivors could use some love.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
85. whitewabit (Mod)
9:46 PM GMT on November 20, 2012
Hey all .. I don't do the Black Friday thing either .. the the son and daughter always go out and I give them money for the 4 grand kids and let them do it for me .. much easier on these old bones ..

I then pick up some fun stuff for them when I go later .. they know the sizes and what the kids want exactly so beneficial for all .. they get what they want .. and I get what I want ..

Oh and we keep the kids overnight Thanksgiving nite ..

For thanksgiving this year I am fixing a Prime Rib Roast.. and yes me not the wife ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31089
84. whitewabit (Mod)
9:37 PM GMT on November 20, 2012
hey wet doggie .. wish it was warm enough up here to garden in the winter .. but with GW in a 100 years you might be able to ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31089
83. aquak9
8:44 PM GMT on November 20, 2012
Be careful in the wanderings- I found a four-pak of brussel sprout stowaways in my car. EWWWWW slimy little monkey brains! but alas, I have such a heart. They will be planted and loved.

Enjoying the playtime of ample fresh pumpkin. It freezes well after puree'ing.

"Land of Nod" - - WOW!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
82. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:13 AM GMT on November 20, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
18:00 PM FST November 20 2012
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1004 hPa) located at 9.8S 167.3E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge with two outflow channels centered in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA. Global models have picked the system and move it south southeastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
81. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:44 AM GMT on November 20, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
8:30 AM IST November 20 2012
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The well marked low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal persists over the same region.

The system would move west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during next 48 hours.

This is the final tropical cyclone bulletin from the India Meteorological Department
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
80. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:52 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST November 20 2012
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1004 hPa) located at 10.4S 167.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge with two outflow channels centered in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA. Global models have picked the system and move it south southeastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
79. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:14 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
20:30 PM IST November 19 2012
=================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, The depression over west central Bay of Bengal weakened into a well marked low pressure area.

The system would move west-southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
78. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:25 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
21:00 PM FST November 19 2012
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1005 hPa) located at 10.4S 170.E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge axis in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA. Global models have picked up the system and moves it southward with further intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
77. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 19 2012
==================================

Remnants of 02-20122013
----------------------------

Center Located at 0800Z near : 8.2S 59.9E
Movement is west northwestwards at about 9 knots.
Estimated MSLP : 1007 hPa
Maximum Winds (10 mn ) : clockwise circulation estimated at 15-20 kt, strong gusts under squalls.
Minimum is expected to fill in as it drift slowly westwards.

eastern southwest Indian Ocean
------------------------------
Recent animated satellite pictures reveals a low level clockwise circulation approximately centered at
1000Z near 8.2S 87.8E moving south southeastwards at 6 knots. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa and winds near the center are about 15-20 knots. The low level inflow is not direct equatorward at the moment, and upper level southeasterly wind shear is moderate. Environmental conditions may improve on Wednesday.

For the next 72hours, potential for the development of a tropical disturbance is poor.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
76. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
11:30 AM IST November 19 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary near 15.0N 86.5E, about 700 km east northeast of Chennai and 450 km southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would move west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
75. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:47 AM GMT on November 19, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST November 19 2012
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1007 hPa) located near 10.5S 170.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge axis in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 750 HPA. Global models have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Potential for 02F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
74. LakeWorthFinn
11:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2012
Aqua, I have never been to a Black Friday sale... I keep my store open and let others fall too deep into the hypnotic spiral of overmedia-sensationalized holidays of thinly-veiled greed... ;) - good one!

NEVER been as busy in my life as I am right now, but wanted to pop in to say HAPPY & PEACEFUL THANKSGIVING everybody!

Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
73. aquak9
11:02 PM GMT on November 18, 2012
Me and the gnome- we got a truce. As long as he stays in YOUR garden, we're cool.

Cutworms got two raab and a broc; went crazy w/the crabshell from Neptune's Harvest. Smells like seafood out there, now.

Cauliflower, bok choy, dill, one volunteer bean- all doing good. Gonna order more raab seeds next fall. Last year, they went straight to flower, hardly any edible heads. Pollenators loved'm all thru winter. Sure appreciate you turning me onto them.

Oh! co-worker gave me 3 pumpkins, little ones. She had no idea what to do with'm, was gonna throw them out. They were pie pumpkins. Chopped'm up n cooked'm overnite in the slow cooker- how's THAT for wise time management- and am discovering the absolute JOY of fresh pumkpin.

Don't fall too deep into the hypnotic spiral of overmedia-sensationalized holidays of thinly-veiled greed.

love to all



Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
72. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:02 PM GMT on November 18, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
23:30 PM IST November 18 2012
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary near 16.0N 87.5E, about 800 km east northeast of Chennai, 500 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 500 km south southeast of Paradip. The system would move slowly west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken gradually during next 48 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.8N 86.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
18 HRS: 15.4N 85.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
30 HRS: 14.7N 84.8E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
71. Proserpina
4:55 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
Photobucket

Just a brief greeting with a photo collage from my last painting, and a quote from a poem:


Hail to thee, blithe spirit!
Bird thou never wert,
That from Heaven, or near it,
Pourest thy full heart
In profuse strains of unpremeditated art.
Percy Bysshe Shelley
To a Skylark.
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 169 Comments: 18066
70. Skyepony
4:45 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
Happy Saturday all.. Tropically it looks the same, other than NOAA took the floater off 25W.

Locally had .32" overnight. Had an ominous threat but the worse stayed offshore. Maybe the beach-side dwellers got more? My lawn looks happy. Watch that bit of rain there..even though it looks like it is moving on it should deepen a little & then comeback mostly on NFL & GA/ maybe SC but chances are in ECFL we will get a little more out of it then. It's a piece of the next kinda tropical looking nor'easter. Looks to be leaning right. The NE may actually catch a break this time...not so sure about the Outer Banks of NC.

Orangeroses~ Up at the crack of 10 here.. Really drop all the non-sequiturs here you want, your prophets too. I'm not payed for this, yeah the header has morphed into an easy tending reference mess..but these comments are for what ever anyone wants to leave me. There is really a bunch of space hippy animal weather lovin moonies lurking here. I've still got a gnome hiding in my yard that has a hit out on him.. Life has just had me too busy to share beyond weather like I have & will again but everyone else do as you will:)

Finn~ love back at ya! Heal..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
69. LakeWorthFinn
4:31 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
{{{Skye}}} the menthol crystals are healing my aching fingers, wrists and arms (been overdoing stuff and have tendinitis). They are PURE MAGIC :)
Double Kiss
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
68. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:14 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
17:30 PM IST November 17 2012
==================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB03-2012 now lays near 16.0N 89.0E, or about 1000 km east northeast of Chennai, 650 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam, 550 km southeast of Paradip, and 750 km south southwest of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh). The system will likely intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move slowly west northwestward during the next 12 hours. It would move west/west southwestward towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts during the next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal near 15.5N to 20.5N east of 87.0E and moderate to intense convection over rest of Bay of Bengal north of 13.0N east of 85.0E, including Arakan coast. Associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

The buoy observations around the center of the system shows 25 knot winds in the northern sector and about 15 knot winds in the southern sector. Buoy located near 16.5N 88.0E reported winds of 25 knots and a mean sea pressure of 1004 hPa.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm square around the system center. It is less (< 50 kj/cm square) over southwest Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu coast and northern Bay of Bengal. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 5 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past six hrs. The maximum vorticity lies over southwest sector of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa levels is moderate (15-25 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.5N 88.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 16.0N 87.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.0N 85.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 14.0N 84.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
67. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 17 2012
==================================

Remnants of system 02-20122013
-------------------------------
The satellite presentation of the system weakened compared to yesterday.

Centro Located at 0900Z near : 10.4S 66.8E
Movement is westwards at about 9 knots.
Estimated MSLP : 1007 hPa
Maximum Winds (10 mn ) : clockwise circulation 10-20 knots reaching very locally 25 kt in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect.

Residual convective activity is mainly located in the south-western sector of the low where it
extends up to 400 NM from the center. Since 0800 AM UTC, thunderstorm activity has flared up close to the
center in the western quadrant. However it appears to go on undergoing a moderate vertical wind
shear. Environmental conditions appear not conducive for significant development within the next
few days as the system is expected to follow a westwards or west southwestwards track.

There is no other suspect area elsewhere over the basin

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a Tropical Depression is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
66. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:52 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
11:30 AM IST November 17 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and current Buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed over east central Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB03-2012 centered near 15.5N 90.0E, or about 1050 km east northeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 750 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), and 650 km southeast of Paradip (Orissa).

The system would intensify into a deep depression and move slowly northwestwards during next 24 hrs. It would move west or west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts during subsequent 48 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken to solid low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lays over Bay of Bengal between 13.5N to 20.5N east of 88.0E and adjoining Arakan coast. Associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea around the system is rough to very rough.

The buoy observations around the system's center shows 20 knot winds in the northern sector and about 15 knot winds in the southern sector.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 28-30C over the southern Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the center of system. It is less (<50 kj/cm2) over southwestern Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu coast and northern Bay of Bengal. The Madden Julian Oscillation Index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model, it is expected to lay in phase 5 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lays along 16.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hours as well as upper level divergence. The maximum vorticity lies over southwestern sector of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA level is moderate (10-20 knots) around the center of the depression.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
65. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 17 2012
====================================

A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lays over east central and adjoining southeast and west central Bay of Bengal. The system may concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
64. OrangeRoses
1:42 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
Very nice weather techies here. Good maps. Thanks for your comments Skye. Will try to check here more now. My blog is more lyrics clips as my thoughts rapidly change with the morning caffeine from Folgers Gourmet Supreme. I sleep well most nights and am amazed when I learn it was 9-10 hrs in bed??!! I won't drop non-sequiturs here.
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 708
63. Skyepony
6:42 PM GMT on November 16, 2012
Hades~ thanks for keeping us updated on the blobs.

Updated the garden section. Today is a good day to pull a few weeds, feed a few pots & ready them up for a easy planting tomorrow, which is the beginning of a three day favorable time for planting.

Best Days...

November 16th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wash Windows, Advertise to Sell, Travel for Pleasure
November 17th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
November 18th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
November 19th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
November 20th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
November 21st
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
November 22nd
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
November 23rd
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
November 24th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
November 25th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37155
62. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:31 AM GMT on November 16, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 16 2012
====================================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining central and southwest Bay of Bengal now lies over east central and adjoining southeast and west central Bay of Bengal.

The system may become well marked during next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
61. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:16 AM GMT on November 16, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20122013
4:00 AM RET November 16 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1007 hPa) located at 9.0S 70.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4S 66.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.9S 63.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
72 HRS: 11.0S 60.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=========================
The system is too weak for Dvorak analysis...

The low level centre has been re-localized much more north thanks to 0730 AM UTC and 1945 PM UTC OSCAT pass. 1945 PM UTC OSCAT pass shows 15-20kt maximum winds.

A mid-tropospheric center exists far away from the low level circulation center (more than 200 NM). Convection that has practically disappeared, has very recently improved so very scattered in the southeastern quadrant of the low level circulation center.

Available numerical weather prediction models do not deepen the system for the next days. Low level inflow does not exist equator side and northeasterly and then northwesterly vertical wind shear persists.

This warning is the last for this system except re-intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
60. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20122013
16:00 PM RET November 15 2012
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1005 hPa) located at 9.9S 71.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.9S 68.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.9S 64.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 11.4S 60.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=========================
Satellite presentation has deteriorated in regards to last night. Deep convective activity undergoes strong diurnal oscillation and has trouble to consolidate. It persists however and should strengthen next night.

OSCAT 18:56 PM UTC and partially covered ASCAT 02:15 AM UTC swaths confirms that near gale force winds 30 knots exist in the southern semi-circle.

A weak to moderate wind shear window is expected to keep on persisting up to Friday (1200 PM UTC) before northeasterly upper level winds strengthen back. Despite an indirect equatorward low level inflow and an only sustained poleward one, system should slightly deepen and reach Tropical Depression stage within next night (a more rapid intensification is however nor excluded) strengthening vertical wind shear re-curves northwesterly at medium range.

Current intensity of the system does not justify issuance of regular advisory.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
59. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
21:00 PM JST November 15 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.4N 108.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency unless there is potential for the system to become a tropical storm..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449
58. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:54 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20122013
10:00 AM RET November 15 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1004 hPa) located at 9.6S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.9S 68.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.0S 66.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 9.7S 62.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
Vertical wind shear has decreased since yesterday over the disturbed weather area monitored since a few days ago. System has organized and deep convective activity keeps on persisting near the center since 1600 PM UTC. It presents now a curved band pattern (refer to 2243 PM UTC, F17 0116 AM UTC, WINDSAT 0123 AM UTC, and F18 0329 AM UTC).

OSCAT 1856 PM UTC and partial covered ASCAT 0512 AM UTC swath confirms that near gale force winds 30 knots exists in the southern semi-circle.

A weak to moderate wind shear window is expected to keep on persisting up to 1200 PM UTC before east northeasterly upper level winds strengthen back. Despite the indirect equatorward low level inflow and an only sustained poleward one, system is expected to deepen into a tropical depression stage within the next night (a more rapid intensification is however not excluded)

Current intensity of the system does not justify issuance of regular advisory
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44449

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Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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Elevation: 29 ft
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