Hurricane Sandy brought millions of dollars of sand to East Central Florida. The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach now it's only 4.
and the smallest full moon in North America.. This was the time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze, to ensure supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Full Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now actively preparing for winter. It is sometimes also referred to as the Frosty Moon.
click maps to go interactive
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST November 2 2012
=============================================
At 3:00 AM UTC, Yesterday's depression over southern Interior Karnataka and neighborhood weakened into a well marked low pressure area and now lays over northern Interior Karnataka and adjoining Rayalaseema. The system would likely weaken further during the next 12 hours.
This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department
Hope she won't be like the Sandi on our list ...
Happy November to all!
Everything is dead but ROSA. She looks to be the only survivior. The tendency this season has been for the survivior to be long lived..we'll see. All the models take her out to sea, except LBARS goes for MX. I like sea. Models aren't expecting long lasting raging storm except CHIPS.
Wabit~ I agree.. Sandy has been crippling.
Finn~ Hope your BIL gets his power back soon! It's been so cold. He was prepared?
I went to the Atlantis Rollover this morning. She went from the VAB to the Visitor's Complex. They have to put it inside the building before they build the last wall. I'll have pics up in a bit. Was sad but fun. There was a parade with Merritt Island High Band. She came down the road~ people removing signs, light signals in her path..she was always unstoppable with humans using their minds to solve what was in her path..til the end of the space shuttle program.
Especially for those in New York and NJ,don't need anything more right now.
Came over this morning when I saw Atlantis Rollover and was confused to find nothing!
Now I see.
I get the fun/sad mixed emotion thing.
I'm sad myself...without the fun.
Maybe I'll make a point of getting over to see her and pay my respects when the project is finished.
Hope you have a really great weekend!
I hate it for you all up there. I've half figured another one, probilby weaker & more cold core was next. Part is the over all pattern, that takes some time to undo.
Yes, I enjoyed them!
(Cool spacey avatar too!)
Yes, BIL was prepared, but not being able to use the toilet and take a shower got too hard after 3 days so they're at SIL's house, who lost power just for a day. BIL hoping to get power on Monday.
Terrible to meet at the store many customers who have lost homes, one even lost her dog and was crying against my shoulder. So sad :(
Its going to be somber holidays for many of the people living right on the coast ...
The big storm in the NE Pacific threatening Alaska & Canada..that should have a part in next weeks weather on the east coast.
Finn~ That's sad about the people coming in that have lost lots.
Good to see the BIL getting along. It's amazing that fine line of electricity..glad he ran off for some. Many times once you have that, storm suddenly feels less harsh.
Rob~ Thanks!!
Yeah, cool avatar :)
Hi Finn!
Skye,
copying this over from my blog to make sure you see it:
Skye,
Thanks. Your "Skyepony & Atlantis" pic is a great capture of a moment in history. You should get a high quality print of it framed and save it for your grandchildren. A lot of times we see pics of ancestors with no context. That one is special.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 4 2012
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Recent multi-spectral and scatterometry imagery does not currently allow to depict a clockwise low level circulation and any available numerical weather prediction model do not deep a significant low in this area within the next 3 days.
On and after Thursday or Friday, deterministic ECMWF model forecasts a signal of a deepening low near 10S 60E shifting westwards. Its ensemble prediction system show a low probability for a significant cyclogenesis in this area.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 6 2012
===================================
Associated convective activity is particularly active from Equator to 13S between 60E and 80E. It is
still badly organized and fluctuating. Recent multispectral and scatterometry imagery does not
currently allow to depict a clockwise low level circulation. However, a movement seems to begin
between 65E and 75E around 8S.
For the next 2 days, last available numerical weather prediction models forecast favorable environmental conditions for cyclogenesis within the previously mentioned area. Low level inflow is expected to improve equator and polar sides and the east-northeasterly vertical wind shear should decrease on the northwestern edge of an high tropospheric ridge. Sea surface temperatures are sufficient at about 27-28C. Nevertheless, beyond 48-60 hours, wind shear is forecast to notably increase and should rapidly limit development of the system that might move south-westward on the low-mid level high pressures situated in the southeast.
There is no potential for development of a tropical depression for the next 24 hours. Potential becomes fair to good from Wednesday to Thursday.
GFS wind swath in knots for the nor'easter. It's 925mb so it should be a little less at the surface but dang..
Patti~ I need too go vote soon. Hoping the lines aren't long.
Wabit~ I can't get a straight answer on if you get to go in Atlantis. There is one of the mock ups at the visitor complex you can go in. Something special right now is for a limited time the public for the first time is allowed in the VAB in 30 years. It's the huge building with the NASA meatball & flag. I've been in it a few times & it is incredible. It has it's own weather atmosphere.. My grandfather helped build it. Dad worked on it too through the years.
Thanks ya'll. I got some great pics with the family with Atlantis with a much higher res camera for keepsake. The avatar is off a tablet I was gifted with the other week. That thing is so easy & fun to take pics of yourself & background with I'm trying hard not to turn into Jason with a new self portrait every other day:)
Wonderful election weather in SEFL today, 80F and just so nice to breathe good quality air. My favourite temps and weather :)
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM FST November 7 2012
====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, LOW [1005HPA] LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 173.0E. THE LOW IS REPORTED AS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS.
It certainly could. Wind swath on the the CMC is a little farther south than the GFS. This is one to prepare & hope not to get hit too hard by.. It's bringing wind & surge.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 7 2012
=================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 176.0E. Position poor based on multispectral visible and peripheral surface observations. The disturbance is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Sea surface temperature is around 26C.
Tropical Disturbance 01 lies just to the east of an upper level trough in a high sheared environment. Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further development.
Potential for tropical disturbance 01 to develop into a tropical disturbance within the next 24 hours is LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 7 2012
===================================
At 1030Z, the center is located near 10.5S 66.3E with an estimated mean sea level pressure at 1007 hPa and winds in the 10-20 knots range, reaching locally 25 kt far to the north and south of the low level circulation center. Initial motion is rather uncertain but is estimated to be southwards at 10-15 knots.
Wind shear appears to be the main limited factor for further development. However the shear is
easing and this trend should continue trough tomorrow afternoon associated with fair upper level
divergence. Some slow development is possible until that time. Beyond, a sharp increase in the
wind shear is expected. Available numerical weather prediction models analyze this low but none show significant deepening within the next few days as they move the low generally west southwestwards.
The potential for development of a tropical depression for the next 24 hours is poor to fair and
becomes null beyond.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 9 2012
===================================
A near equatorial Trough extends north of 10S east of 75E. Associated convective activity remains scattered and very fluctuating but locally strong northward and southward along a low level shear line stretching on a 08S 83E - 03S 93E axis. East northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keep on being rather strong in this area within the next 2-3 days. Beyond, potential for cyclogenesis is forecast to become good next week according to ECMWF ensemble strike probability.
A broad ill-defined low level clockwise circulation extends up to 600 km from the center of exposed low level circulation center approximately located at 1030Z near 11.5S 61.5E. Associated convective activity is very scattered and extends mainly far away from the center and especially in the southeastern semi-circle. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa and ASCAT path of this morning suggests winds at about 10-15 kt near the center, reaching 20-25 kt far away from the center in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. System is moving west southwestward at about 8-10 kt.
Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement and do not deepen the low within the next days. Oceanic heat content is marginal and a rather strong north easterly wind shear should remain on the expected west southwestward track.
For the next 60 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. From Monday, potential becomes poor within the area located east of the basin.
Wab~ Oh there will be..
Ylee~ Makes me wunder how Daytona really fared.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 10 2012
===================================
A near equatorial Trough extends north of 10S east of 68E. Within the NET, convective activity is locally moderate to strong between 80E and 85E. ASCAT data of this morning and last available animated satellite pictures suggest that a poorly defined low level circulation exists near 5S/84E at 0900Z. The low level circulation center is almost stationary. Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1004hPa. Winds near the center are of the order of 20-25kt, reaching 30kt in the northwestern sector. Lower layers environmental conditions are rather favorable, but east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keep on being moderate to strong in this area within the next 2-3 days. This low may track slowly southwestward for the next 24 hours, and accelerate west southwestward beyond. Available numerical weather prediction models forecast a slow deepening of this low for the next 3 days.
A broad ill-defined low level clockwise circulation is located at 0900Z near 14.2S 58.4E, moving southwestward at about 10 knots. Associated convective activity is fluctuating. Mean level sea pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa and winds are estimated at 10-15 knots near the center, reaching 20-25 knots far away from the center in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement and do not deepen the low within the next days. Oceanic heat content is marginal and a rather strong north wind shear should remain on the expected west southwestward track.
For the next 48 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. From Monday, potential becomes poor for the first paragraph disturbance.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 10 2012
======================================
A low pressure area may form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 14th.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 11 2012
===================================
Over the northeastern basin: the low level circulation center, detected yesterday, has lost in both definition and organization since last night. After a rather symetric presentation on last night ASCAT pass, OSCAT data of this morning, TRMM pass of 0556Z and classical satellite imagery, show that the low level circulation center merged within an east-west shear line located along 07S. Convective activity is locally strong between 06S 09S and 80E 83E but remains highly easterly sheared and without any organization. Environmental conditions appear marginal for development at present time (indirect low level inflow, 30-40 knots easterly shear). According to available numerical guidance, conditions could become gradually more conducive Tuesday with a more direct low level inflow equatorwards and some easing of the shear associated with better divergence aloft. All guidance deepen a low within the next few days and move it southwestwards and then west southwestwards. It is worth to note that some models show a significantly weaker system than suggested a few days ago.
250 km to the north of Tromelin: The broad low level clockwise circulation monitored since a few days, is located at 1100Z near 13.6S 54.5E, moving west northwestwards at about 8 knots. Associated residual convective activity is removed at more than 500 km to the southeast of the center. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa and winds are estimated at 10-15 knots near the center, reaching 20-25 knots far away from the center in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Within unfavorable conditions, this system should dissipate within the next 24-36 hours near the northeastern coasts of Madagascar.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Tuesday, potential becomes poor to fair for the disturbance in paragraph one.
Just popping in to say "Hi!"
Enjoy the evening.
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST November 13 2012
======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Nice NOAA is providing floaters on all these. Indian Ocean & SH ones we haven't had til more recent.
Wab~ Been agreeing with you completely on the Central Atlantic wave.
The wave that is going to turn into a extra or maybe sub-tropical low & hit Bermuda.. CMC is starting to show the tail of that touching a blob off the Carolinas. Barely warm core about 4-5 days out.
Reclaimed the north garden. I've been hacking & pulling in there a few weeks now. Regaining a few pots & planting. Cleared the rest & filled in around what survived since (buster was in there) with some plants from the farm store, onion sets & seeds.
Looks like a great year for broccoli, cauliflower & cabbage. Put your lettuce in the coolest spots you got ECFL & south.
Yep. Growing like crazy here. Some raab, already over a foot in diameter- all leafy, no raab-y.
Last cold spell exploded the letti seeds. Did I REALLY plant that many? (probably over 100 each) Also, the spinach pushed through. It was planted on a special saturday, before a special monday. Nearly 30 of'm, I sang praises to God, my neighbor thought I was daffy.
Found BOGO four-pak pots of cauliflower and bok-choy at the arts market, $2. Never grew cauliflower before. The broccoli has taken off, too. Found another burnett, too- all from the crazy gun-toting survivalist herb lady.
Oh yeah, there's two marble-sized cataloupes. Will it be a warm winter, or a cold winter? I think I got it covered.
Yeah the pain train seems to be headed to the NE..
I've got to pull the lawn furniture & what not out of the barn so I can store hay.
With 60% hay failure across the land & coming off the bad hay years from the droughts from TX to GA..it's probilby going to be hard to find late winter & early spring.
Aqua~ Awesome garden report! Your gardens are beautiful. What a treat it was to see them. I told Pros..I still can't get over how wowed I was by her art "live". Hope your Melons finish up quick. I got your hitchhikers planted. They look all happy. Planted a few cucumbers, thought I'd play the odds too.. My neglected fall squash all was eaten by bugs. Did see a few late watermelons up yesterday. It' been warm enough.
Well, you are further south than me....companion planting of watermelon and broccoli? oh my...what IS this world coming to?
:)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
3:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.4N 110.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 7.7N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
6:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.4N 110.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 7.7N 107.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
9:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move west north westward for the next 24 hours
Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours
System will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area
Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
12:00 PM JST November 14 2012
=======================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.3N 107.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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