Skyepony's WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Skyepony, 2:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012 | +6 |
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78 °F
Clear
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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
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| Elevation: | 29 ft |
| Temperature: | 74.8 °F |
| Dew Point: | 68.9 °F |
| Humidity: | 82% |
| Wind: | 2.0 mph from the NE |
| Wind Gust: | 4.0 mph |
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Updated: 3:58 AM EDT on May 25, 2013
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Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
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| Elevation: | 2540 ft |
| Temperature: | 50.2 °F |
| Dew Point: | 38.1 °F |
| Humidity: | 63% |
| Wind: | Calm |
| Wind Gust: | 0.0 mph |
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Updated: 3:58 AM EDT on May 25, 2013
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
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| Elevation: | 2376 ft |
| Temperature: | 49.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 42.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 78% |
| Wind: | 2.0 mph from the WNW |
| Wind Gust: | 5.0 mph |
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Updated: 3:12 AM EDT on May 25, 2013
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I like it!
Thanks Finn, all good here!
Now just a matter of worrying about friends to the north.
Take good care all!
Out for the night.
numerical weather prediction model show quite the Arabian Sea cyclone next week.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.5N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.7N 106.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.2N 104.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.9N 103.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
:)
Just noticed new avatar also.
I double dog dare ya to open that umbrella in a hurricane.
Hmmm? You wouldn't need your broomstick anymore.
:)))
Shep slips under desk.
Here, it's almost over. Temps will fall to low 50's in the next days. Will be nice to wear a SWEATER for a change. Aaaahh!
Now check out how GFS takes it from cold-core to a warm-core storm as it travels ESE across the Atlantic, even though it's above the 26º mark. This makes me think of those odd shallow storms in that area that we have seen feed on moderate shear.
Already feeling chilly out there. First big cool down on the way.
Shep~ You better duck.. If any would have survived it, it would have been that one. Trying not to ruin another camera in rain here..
Wab~ Skye don't mind the storm. He's always been good & stoic for even Jeanne. It's Buster that is the fraidy barn collapse survivor. Locked him in a few hours this morning & he's doing much better.
Hades~ Arabian Sea looks open & eager for cyclones.
Rob~ Thanks. I'm hoping the best for the north. They should really prepare.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 17.0N 109.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.0N 106.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.3N 105.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 21.2N 104.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 27 2012
==================================
A Low Pressure Area has formed near 12.0N 91.0E over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km about mean sea level. The system would likely become more well marked during the next 24 hours.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
I made sure my rain gauge was empty when I was working in my yard two days ago. I did not check it again until this morning. I measured 2.16" for the entire storm so far, and although there is still a lot of rain just several miles offshore I think we are just about done with the winds offshore now. It always amazes me how different it can be beachside compared to just a few miles away on the mainland.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (945 hPa) located at 17.5N 108.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.3N 105.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 20.4N 105.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Recon is out there.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 15:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°18'N 75°44'W (29.3N 75.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 309 miles (497 km) to the NNE (19°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,071m (3,514ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 52kts (From the SSE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 960mb (28.35 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:11:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:11:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND TSTMS NW SIDE OF CENTER
SONDE DATA UNAVAILABLE
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 28 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (950 hPa) located at 18.1N 107.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.1N 106.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 21.1N 105.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
still blowin' a gale here and I'm over 300 miles from the center.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 28 2012
=======================================
The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around 30th October.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 28 2012
==========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, latest satellite imagery and buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB02-2012 lays near 9.5N 86.0E, or 730 km southeast of Chennai, India 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move initially westward towards Tamil Nadu coast.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 7.0N and 13.0N and 85.0E to 89.0E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lies over the rest southeast Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 7.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 HRS. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.
The buoy observation around the center of the depression show 20-25 knot wind in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector. At 6:00 AM UTC, buoy position near 8.1N 85.5E, reported wind of 18 knots and a mean surface level pressure of 1005 hPa. Buoy located near 11.0N 86.5E reported a mean surface level pressure of 1007.5 hPa with winds of 23 knots. Earlier scatterometry data indicated 25-30 knots wind in the northern sector of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm square around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 13:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:26:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32°00'N 72°54'W (32.N 72.9W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 271 miles (436 km) between the SE and SSE (146°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,695m (8,842ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 221° at 47kts (From the SW at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:31:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:31:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAINBAND SOUTH SIDE OF STORM
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (985 hPa) located at 20.7N 106.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.0N 108.1E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Weird about that sinkhole. Does nothing to increase my faith in fracking. More here.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
17:30 PM IST October 28 2012
==========================================
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 85.0E or about 650 km southeast of Chennai, India and 400 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and may subsequently develop into a cyclonic storm as the system moves westward towards northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu (India) coast.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 6.0N and 13.0N west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.
3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is about 1003 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.
The buoy observation around the system shows 20-25 knot winds in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system centre. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
23:30 PM IST October 28 2012
==========================================
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
At 18:00 PM UTC, the depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 84.5E or 600 km southeast of Chennai, India and 350 km east northeast of trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and may subsequently become a cyclonic storm as it moves westward towards northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 29 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (1000 hPa) located at 21.5N 107.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.5N 108.8E - Tropical Depression In Gulf of Tonkin
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
5:30 AM IST October 29 2012
==========================================
Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. The deep depression now lays near 9.5N 84.0E or about 550 km southeast of Chennai, India and 300 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move westward for some more time then move northwestward. The deep depression is forecast to cross Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by the evening/night of October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 4.0N and 13.5N and west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 12 hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 83.2E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 10.0N 82.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.3N 80.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
17:30 PM IST October 29 2012
==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.0N 82.5E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and moves westward for some more time while coming closer to Sri Lanka coast. The system should then move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh coast between Negapattinam and Nellore by the evening of October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 13.5N and west of 87.0E, Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. The associated convection has remained the same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has slightly increased during past 6 hrs however the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels has increased and is moderate to high (15-30 knots) around system center.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 9.0N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.0N 80.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
She is probibly lower than the 939mb lowest modeled.. Recon just found 937.5 mb (~ 27.68 inHg).
This coming high tide this evening should be the worst. So much worst than Irene. Here is some surge info.
Hades~ Hope the fishermen in BOB stayed in..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
23:30 PM IST October 29 2012
==========================================
Cyclone Alert For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts
At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays centered near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move westward for a couple hours and come very close to Sri Lanka coast. The system will then move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by the afternoon of October 31st.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.5N 80.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 78.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
5:30 AM IST October 30 2012
==========================================
Cyclone Alert For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and now lays near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by afternoon/evening of October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, the vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 8.7N 82.0E. Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.0. Associated broken to intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, and adjoining Rayalasheema southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 5.0N 14.5N west of 86.5E. Low/Medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 5.0N and 13.5N and west of 87.0E. Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The associated convection has remained the same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has increased during past 06 hrs and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. Estimated central pressure is 999 hPa and 24 hours pressure fall is observed maximum over Chennai -1.9 hPa.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.5N 80.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 30 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts
At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Nilam lays centered near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by afternoon/evening of October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 9.0N 82.0E. The Dvorak intensity of Nilam is 2.5 with associated broken intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk STR, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayleseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 14.5N west of 85.0E. The associated convection has remained same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. the lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -85C.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to high around the center of the cyclone.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over central Bay of Bengal (northeast sector of cyclone). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hrs and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is low (0-5 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. Estimated central pressure is 998 hPa and 24 hours pressure fall is observed maximum over Ongole -1.8 hPa.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 80.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 15.0N 79.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT October 30 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Storm "ROSA" forms..
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1004 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.5W or 630 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.
Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.1N 118.6W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.4N 120.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.0N 121.5W - Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Orange Message
At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays near 9.5N 82.0E, or about 450 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would likely move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast by the evening of October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of Nilam is 2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is moderate ( 5-10 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.7N 81.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
48 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
AEMN 16.3 28.6 43.5 48.4 110.5 177.0
AVNO 16.9 32.2 57.4 69.2 147.1 223.2
CMC 33.6 65.5 95.7 120.6 142.5 171.0
FIM9 18.8 29.7 56.7 66.6 - -
GFDL 8.7 41.7 72.4 94.1 117.1 133.5
LGEM 0 40.8 61.3 100.9 153.4 258.6
MRCL 0 38.6 56.1 70.1 - -
MRFO 13.3 29.9 49.7 85.8 145.5 277.0
NAM 22.5 58.3 109.4 135.2 - -
NGX 33.1 62.2 128.0 146.0 208.6 220.5
OFCL 1.0 36.5 54.7 68.3 95.2 168.1
RYOC 0 35.4 25.9 74.2 73.2 109.8
TVCN 0 38.4 56.3 72.2 113.5 202.1
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Orange Message
At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai between 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nalim is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 13.5N west of 84.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nalim is estimated at around 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15º n. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
39 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Orange Message
At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 10.5N 81.5E or about 320 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 220 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st,
According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comrin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwestern adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The estimated central pressure of Nalim is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.
Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is of the order of 10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 5-10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Red Message
At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 11.0N 81.0E or about 260 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 300 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm and move northwestward while crossing northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore, close to Chennai by afternoon/evening of October 31st.
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
9 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 13.5N 79.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 15.5N 77.5E - Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
11:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Red Message
At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved north northwestward during the past 6 hours and now lays centered near 11.5N 81.0E or about 180 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 140 km east southeast of Cuddalore, India. The system would move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast close to Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, today.
According to satellite imagery, vortex of the cyclone over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 10.8N 81.0E. The Dvorak intensity of the system is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northern Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.
Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The central pressure of the system is 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the cyclone.
Coastal observations from Tamil Nadu and Puducherry indicate maximum sustained wind of about 20-25 knots. The lowest mean surface level pressure of 998 hPa is reported by Puducherry with 24 hours pressure change of 12.2 hPa.
Cyclonic storm Nilam is being captured by DWR Chennai, as per its observation at 6:00 AM UTC, the eye is ill defined and center at 11.5N and 80.9E. Maximum reflectivity near vortex center is 50 dbz. The confident is poor.
An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). Upper level winds are south-southeasterly over southwest Bay of Bengal becoming east- southeasterly near the coast favoring initial north northwesterly and then northwesterly movement of cyclone. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is of the order of 10 knots around system center. 24 hours
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
18 HRS: 14.5N 78.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 15.5N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
14:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts
Red Message
At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved north northwestward during the last 6 hours and now lays centered near 12.0N 80.5E or about 120 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 70 km east of Puducherry, India. Latest radar imagery and coastal observation indicate that Cyclonic Storm Nilam is now beginning to cross Tamil Nadu (India) coast.
Happy Halloween, Skye!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
Cyclonic Storm NILAM Crossed North Tamilnadu Coast
At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Strom Nilam moved north northwestwards and crossed northern Tamil Nadu coast near 12.6N 80.2E, south of Chennai, India between 1030 and 1130 AM UTC. The cyclone now lays near 12.7N 79.8E or about 50 km south southwest of Chennai, India. The system is likely to move northwestward and weaken into a deep depression during the next 6 hours.
According to satellite imagery, associated broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds are observed north Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, adjoining Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N west of 82.0E.
The sustained winds near the center along and off northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast will continue to be about 35-40 knots. during the next 6 hours and decrease thereafter. Sea conditions is very rough to high along the coast for the next 5 hours before decreasing.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 14.5N 78.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
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