Tropics Alive

By: Skyepony , 2:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012

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Atlantic
18L SANDY



East Pacific
17E



Central Pacific

West Pacific
24W SON-TINH



Indian Ocean

96A



02B NILAM


Southern Hemisphere




A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In October the planting frenzy continues for all of the state of Florida, while we harvest the last tastes of summer. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, collards, kale, Kohlrabi, Lettuce, Mustard, onions, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, califlower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, eggplant, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, peppers, potatoes, radish, spinach, summer squash, strawberry, tomato, turnips.

October 2012
30th-31st Good Days For Planting Beets, Carrots, Onions, Turnips And Other Hardy Root Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable. Good Days For Transplanting
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Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage (joshb100)
Cape Cod, MA. The building at the end of the dock was destroyed by Sandy.
Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage
Corn Neck Road & Cresent Beach, Block Island, RI (JudyGray)
Corn Neck Road & Cresent Beach, Block Island, RI
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A real mix thanks to Sandy (the big storm). A few leaves of fall hanging in. Bare trees, snow, ice, and fog in the Great Smoky Mountains of North Carolina
Hello Winter  Goodbye Fall

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155. Skyepony
4:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
The new Trey album Traveler just arrived. Couple of songs in..sounding sweet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
154. Skyepony
2:18 PM GMT on October 17, 2012
ASHEVILLE (AP) — This could be the warmest year on record in the mountains of western North Carolina.

The Asheville Citizen-Times reported that the average temperature this year is 61.5 degrees. The average temperature through mid-October is 57 degrees in the mountains of North Carolina.

John Tomko with the National Weather Service in Greer, S.C., says this year's temperatures could break records set most recently in 1954.

January and February were about four degrees above normal, while March was a whopping nine degrees higher than average.

Tomko says the outlook for the rest of the year is for above normal temperatures. But October has been about one degree below average.


That Trey video is a special hidden thing:) New album coming out soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
153. Skyepony
4:56 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
152. whitewabit (Mod)
3:45 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Good news on the return of GOES 13 ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31739
151. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:58 AM GMT on October 17, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 54.9E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.6S 51.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has still decreased and now is totally rejected in the southeastern quadrant of the system. Anais is penetrating in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weakening.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Looks like they are testing GOES-13. We should be looking at that through GOES-14 & seeing GOES-14 through GOES-east (13)..


*Topic: *A Test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data is scheduled for
October 15, 2012
*Date/Time Issued:***October 15, 2012 1230 UTC
*Product(s) or Data Impacted:* GOES-13 Imager and Sounder Data.
GOES-14
users will receive GOES-13 data during the test period.
*Date/Time of Initial Impact:* October 15, 2012 1545 UTC
*Date/Time of Expected End:* October 16, 2012 1545 UTC
*Length of Test:***24 hours
*Details/Specifics of Change: *The Office of Satellite and Product
Operations (OSPO) is planning to begin a 24 hour quantitative
evaluation test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data and level 2 products
at approximately 1545 UTC on October 15, 2012. This will require a
complex rebroadcast and distribution scenario, where GOES-13 data will
be broadcast via GOES-14 while we continue to broadcast the operational
GOES-14 data via GOES-13. Upon conclusion of the test after 24 hours,
the rebroadcast scenario will return to distribution of GOES-14
via both
GOES-14 and GOES-13 GVAR transmissions while GOES-13 returns to standby
status. No actions are required by users for the purposes of this
test.
Results will be evaluated following the 24 hour test to determine
next
steps with the GOES constellation.

This should be GOES-13 as viewed through GOES-14..you can toggle between 13 & 14 here. Goes-14 (13) looks positioned farther east. I think GOES-13 maybe alive:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Fresh ASCAT of the Central Atlantic Wave..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
That is one of ours..NASA!  It was renamed after launch..  Here's the link for current data.  One for the bookmarks..


This composite image of the Earth taken from the VIIRS
instrument aboard NASA's most recently launched Earth-observing
satellite - Suomi NPP - uses a number of swaths of the Earth's surface
taken on January 4, 2012. The NPP satellite was renamed 'Suomi NPP' on
January 24, 2012 to honor the late Verner E. Suomi of the University of Wisconsin.

Suomi NPP is NASA's next Earth-observing research satellite. It is
the first of a new generation of satellites that will observe many
facets of our changing Earth.

Suomi NPP is carrying five instruments on board. The biggest and most
important instrument is The Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite or
VIIRS.

To read more about NASA's Suomi NPP go to npp.gsfc.nasa.gov

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Finn~ I think it's a new sat that another country put up. I'll have to find out.

12Zcmc has a tropical depression hitting the Yucatan in 5 days..the remnants of Patty.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
145. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (988 hPa) located at 13.8S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 10 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 165 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.5S 58.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais is weakening rapidly under increasing north to northwesterly shear and low oceanic heat contain. N18 AMSUB imagery of 2245z show an exposed low level circulation center located 20-30 NM to the north of the residual convection that appears shapeless. Consequently the Dvorak constraints are broken for the present intensity estimate. It remains in the lower side of the other available estimate (PGTW at 4.5, Advance Dvorak Techneque at 4.5 but displaced the center, SATCON at 81 kt at 2200z, 1 min wind)

Available numerical guidance (1200z) are now in better agreement for the long term track forecast. The recurvature scenario appear less likely and anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a general west southwards track.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable over the forecast period and Anais should be below tropical storm strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
cool sat pics!
I wonder if Suomi NPP VIIRS ws Finnish, because "Suomi" means "Finland" (in Finnish)... If so that's neat :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
Tropical Storm Rafael was slowly intensifying over the Atlantic Ocean north-northeast of Puerto Rico on 15 October 2012. McIDAS-V images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel and 0.8 µm Day/Night Band data at 05:33 UTC (courtesy of William Straka, CIMSS) showed cloud top IR brightness temperatures colder than -85 C (violet color enhancement), as well as city lights from the islands of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and other nearby islands.


There is another good shot today of Rafael in the CIMSS blog & another Arctic storm...click pic for animation.



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 13:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 13:05:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°40'N 65°35'W (22.6667N 65.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 296 miles (476 km) to the N (6°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,295m (4,249ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 75kts (From the ESE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the east quadrant at 10:55:00Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 12:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 11:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°35'N 65°33'W (22.5833N 65.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 290 miles (467 km) to the N (7°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,290m (4,232ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 55° at 71kts (From the NE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:55:00Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 02:01Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 1:24:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°12'N 64°43'W (21.2N 64.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 212 miles (341 km) to the NNE (24°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,339m (4,393ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 239° at 50kts (From the WSW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (138°) from the flight level center
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 00:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 0:19:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°13'N 64°46'W (21.2167N 64.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 212 miles (340 km) to the NNE (23°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,341m (4,400ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the N (1°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 70kts (From the ENE at ~ 80.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,539m (5,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNE (29°) from the flight level center
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 22:57Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 22:24:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°11'N 64°25'W (21.1833N 64.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 220 miles (353 km) to the NNE (29°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 3° at 31kts (From the N at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: No Observation
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
137. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (992 hPa) located at 18.6N 142.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 140.6E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 26.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 30.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
136. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.8N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 130.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.5N 128.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.7N 127.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
135. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 14 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has slightly weakened as it moves northward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [972 hPa] located at 22.6°N 131.3°E or 880 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of central and southern of Luzon due to big waves generated by "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
134. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (949 hPa) located at 11.9S 65.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 with gusts of 140. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/12HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.8S 63.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.8S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.2S 57.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually and becomes the historical earlier knew intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean and the first one for October.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Several numerical weather prediction models (IFS ,ALADIN, and NOGAPS) are in good agreement and forecast a southwestwards track and a recurving movement on and after Thursday.

0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track and UKMO and GFDN keeps on tracking the system globally westwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
Yes it does... WOW!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
never imagined a "category 4" (intense tropical cyclone) in the SW Indian Ocean so quickly.


Does make me want to say WOW!



The ITCZ is so south in that part of the world for ~ 3 weeks~ Add in the moisture that has been toiling around the Indian Ocean & I'm not completely taken off guard.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 64°06'W (19.9333N 64.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 656m (2,152ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 34kts (From the NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
130. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
never imagined a "category 4" (intense tropical cyclone) in the SW Indian Ocean so quickly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
129. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (953 hPa) located at 11.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 with gusts of 130. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.3S 63.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.3S 60.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 57.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually since 0:00 AM UTC and becomes the historical earlier intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

13/0000z deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs is in agreement with ALADIN and forecast a more southern track than previously and a southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track.

Its 0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track as UKMO numerical weather prediction models keeps on tracking globally westwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
128. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.6N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.6N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.8N 127.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.2N 141.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.4N 140.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 24.6N 140.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 13:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°47'N 64°01'W (19.7833N 64.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the NE (55°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 673m (2,208ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 202° at 38kts (From the SSW at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 129 nautical miles (148 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 810m (2,657ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 813m (2,667ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
She left us long ago for the bunk but I'll miss her even more now...RIP Seawall.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
124. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Marianas
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
123. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 17.4N 144.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
122. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (975 hPa) located at 11.1S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 with gusts of 105. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM radius from the center in the western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.7S 64.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 14.0S 60.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.4S 56.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais re-intensifies gradually since 0000 AM UTC. On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 24 to 36 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday, system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. 13/1200 PM UTC, deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs purpose a slight southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track. Its ensemble EPS members spread is however rather thin around its mean tracking westwards towards northeastern Malagasy coastline. NOGAPS, UKMO and GFDN numerical weather prediction tracker are in good agreement with the ifs scenario.

Current RSMC forecast track is close to this zonal west southwestwards scenario. Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARPEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
Fresh ASCAT RAFAEL
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Recon went back to St Croix.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 23:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 23:00:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°52'N 63°33'W (17.8667N 63.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 169 miles (272 km) to the ESE (103°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,456m (4,777ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 41kts (From the S at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:03:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ESE (109°) from the flight level center
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 21:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 20:58:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°29'N 63°22'W (17.4833N 63.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 188 miles (303 km) to the ESE (110°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,450m (4,757ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 4kts (~ 4.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 258° at 13kts (From the WSW at ~ 15.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:03:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:06:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (220°) from the flight level center
Maximum SFMR Estimated Surface Wind Outbound: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:11:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
OSCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
116. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 23:30 PM RET, Tropical Cyclone Anais (977 hPa) located at 10.5S 67.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 with gusts of 90. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/6HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.9S 65.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 13.2S 62.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.5S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

System has evolved in an eye pattern since 1530 PM UTC. Therefore, the cyclone intensification rate is breaking Dvorak constraints. Last satellite fix suggest that system has slowed down and has tracked southwestward during the past 6 hours.

Environmental conditions are favorable with weak northeasterly upper level wind shear (1200 PM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), and good upper level divergence southward. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Until after 36 hours, lower and upper environmental conditions should remain favorable. On and after 36 hours (Monday), system should encounter cooler sea surface temperatures (south of 12S) and is expected to weaken. At the end of the forecast range (on and after Wednesday), upper level wind shear is expected to increase ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should keep on weakening rapidly. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement with a regular track west southwestward until J+5. AVNO suggests that the system should recurve southeast ward after J+4.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
115. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 13 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Paul Forms Well South Southwest Of Baja California..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1005 hPa) located at 14.0N 113.6W or 575 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.9N 115.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2N 115.5W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 23.0N 114.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 20:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 19:38:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°13'N 63°14'W (17.2167N 63.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 miles (328 km) to the ESE (114°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,446m (4,744ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 127 nautical miles (146 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 169° at 56kts (From between the SSE and S at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 110 nautical miles (127 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:03:00Z

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Guy~ Thanks for the news. Odd seeing Endeavor like that.


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 18:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 17:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°53'N 63°25'W (16.8833N 63.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 miles (328 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,476m (4,843ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 142° at 23kts (From the SE at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:11:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
The latest news on the space shuttle is featured on today's front page of the Google-translated Paris newspaper Le Monde:
Endeavour arrives in Los Angeles, his new home.

In other Google-translated world news: Shut Up and Dig.

(...and I could not resist adding this one:
Industry sodas and sugary drinks attack New York court)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC has declared Patty dead. The remnants should go over Cuba as Rafael goes over PR & recurves.

01S is now Anais.

Hades~ They maybe calling that one on the conservative side.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
109. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.4N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.6N 130.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 22.6N 130.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
108. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (990 hPa) located at 10.1S 68.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 with gusts of 65. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.5S 65.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.6S 63.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.7S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais shows a curved band pattern wrapping on 0.8 wrap around the center. On infrared imagery, convection seems fluctuating near the center, but 0805 AM UTC TRMM shows an irregular closed eye on 85 GHZ and 37 GHZ. So current intensity is estimated at 45 kt. Anais has a little accelerated in keeping a west southwestward track on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are favorable with good low level inflow and a east northeasterly wind shear that is still decreasing (06:00 AM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favourable (sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. A significant uncertainty remains for maximum intensity expected. ECMWF and ARPEGE clearly deepen the system considering that system stays on western extremity of the ridge with a weak wind shear and a very good poleward outflow. However, heat ocean content is limited during that time of the season. RSMC intensity forecast is enhanced in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after 48-60 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (993 hPa) located at 9.5S 69.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.9S 65.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.1S 63.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.0S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

After a break yesterday evening, system has intensified and has been named Anais by Meteorological Service of Mauritius. 0455 AM UTC ASCAT pass seems to confirm that gale force winds extend up to 50 NM. 0326 AM UTC F18 microwave imagery shows a consolidating configuration. Anais continues to move west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable with good low level inflow and weak east northeasterly wind shear (cf midnight CIMSS data, 030/8kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature in the order of 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. Monday seems to be the most favorable day for intensification, but uncertainty is high enough for maximum intensity expected. Last ECMWF run (0000 AM UTC) deepens the system more. However, rsmc intensity forecast is maintained in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after after 60, system is expected to encounter cooler sst and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46139
Patty looked rough on ASCAT earlier. Fresh OSCAT is brutal. Patty looks dead. Rafael is in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627
Beautiful Cloudsat of RAFEAL. The big blobs have tended tall this season.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38627

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