Skyepony's WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Skyepony, 2:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012 | +6 |
click maps to go interactive
........
| Permalink | A A A |
|
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
 |
72 °F
Rain
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
|
|
| Elevation: | 29 ft |
| Temperature: | 73.8 °F |
| Dew Point: | 70.7 °F |
| Humidity: | 90% |
| Wind: | 2.0 mph from the NE |
| Wind Gust: | 5.0 mph |
|
Updated: 11:14 AM EDT on May 22, 2013
|
|
|
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
|
|
| Elevation: | 2540 ft |
| Temperature: | 73.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 66.5 °F |
| Humidity: | 80% |
| Wind: | Calm |
| Wind Gust: | 2.0 mph |
|
Updated: 11:14 AM EDT on May 22, 2013
|
|
|
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
|
|
| Elevation: | 2376 ft |
| Temperature: | 74.0 °F |
| Dew Point: | 67.0 °F |
| Humidity: | 78% |
| Wind: | Calm |
| Wind Gust: | 2.0 mph |
|
Updated: 10:42 AM EDT on May 22, 2013
|
|
 |
Get Free Weather Stickers® |
 |
Upload Your Photos |
 |
Weather™ API for Developers NEW! |
 |
Become a Site Member |
 |
Find us on Facebook |
 |
Follow us on Twitter |
| Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc. | About Us - Contact - Support - Employment - Press Releases - Terms of Service - Privacy Statement |
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS
Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.9S 54.9E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.6S 51.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
Additional Information
======================
Convection has still decreased and now is totally rejected in the southeastern quadrant of the system. Anais is penetrating in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weakening.
Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.
Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
The Asheville Citizen-Times reported that the average temperature this year is 61.5 degrees. The average temperature through mid-October is 57 degrees in the mountains of North Carolina.
John Tomko with the National Weather Service in Greer, S.C., says this year's temperatures could break records set most recently in 1954.
January and February were about four degrees above normal, while March was a whopping nine degrees higher than average.
Tomko says the outlook for the rest of the year is for above normal temperatures. But October has been about one degree below average.
That Trey video is a special hidden thing:) New album coming out soon.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 17 2012
==========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1003 hPa) located at 15.6S 55.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: No Report
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.0S 52.8E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 16.9S 50.2E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
Additional Information
======================
Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weaken.
Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night time.
Low level totally exposed central vortex remains however well defined.
Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.
Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong north-westerly wind-shear and sea surface temperatures too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Friday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Today it's official - we have a new home! :)
Hades thanks for the updates. Hard to believe it's still gust 45kts the way it looks.
FINN~ Super congrats on the new house! Mailed you stuff..
Everybody that's been waiting on mail from me for the last 3 or more months it all left yesterday:)
One of the songs on the new Trey album is a cover of this song called Clint Eastwood. Saw them play it live at Bear Creek last year. The album one has no horns & sounds like your in a club or something.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
0:30 AM RET October 18 2012
==========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1004 hPa) located at 15.9S 54.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: No Report
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 16.6S 52.1E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
Additional Information
======================
Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and keeps on rapidly weakening.
Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night-time.
Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.
Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Saturday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #105
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 27.3N 131.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 18 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 31.4N 140.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
48 HRS: 33.3N 151.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 33.7N 161.2E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Lake Worth got flooded this evening, 3.85" fell in just a few hours according to news on the radio on our way home at 10pm (Over 4" in neighboring Boynton Beach) We got soaked to our knees crossing Lake Ave to a concert at the Lake Worth Playhouse. Flood waters at some places were over the curbs.
Been raining so much that we have not had to water the lawn since June! Maybe w
Temps are niiiiice, in the high 70s F :)
Game called on account of rain!
Two gray days in a row making me just want to sleep.
October 19th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wash Windows, Advertise to Sell, Travel for Pleasure
October 20th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wash Windows, Advertise to Sell, Travel for Pleasure
October 21st
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
October 22nd
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
October 23rd
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 24th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 25th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 26th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
October 27th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
October 28th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes
& for all those that have suffered frost..
Hey Everyone:)
Hope the season is long enough up here for me to get a few ...
I think I'd got up for water. Noticed Maria was dead. She was the last one to go before the invests would start really pulling together. And here we go..99L & 90L are here.
Looks born again subtropical. Expected by gfs to make it back to warm core.
a low pressure area would form over the same area around 24th October. This low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal may intensify into a depression
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST October 22 2012
====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.0N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
9:00 AM JST October 22 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.2N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.2N 131.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 22 2012
=====================================
A low pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea. It may concentrate into a depression
during next 48 hours.
Hades~ Thanks for the updates. I'll update the entry.
Wab~ Racheal didn't make it. She was tenacious. That alone was a feet.
Thanks about the envelope pony. I must have drawn it in the last few weeks. It's on recent mail..but I hardly remember drawing it. They mindlessly escape my head somehow:)
Here's model error for 99L so far. It has all the models just about except the ECMWF. AEMN (gfs), FIM9 (except the last run initialized way off), MRFO & Models starting with the letter T seem to be getting this one so far. You can plot these out on Google map through a link off that page too. They all take it right to Jamaica..
Models really initialized bad that last run. Don't believe the models yet..
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 20:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°26'N 78°19'W (12.4333N 78.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the NW (307°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 42kts (From the SSE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 446m (1,463ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 444m (1,457ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:20:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MIN SLP 999MB DISPLACED FROM WIND CTR 045/12NM
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
23:30 PM IST October 22 2012
===================================
The trough of low lies over southeast Bay of Bengal with the upper air cyclonic circulation aloft. The meteorological analysis suggest that a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman Sea around October 24th. Numerical weather prediction models are indicating its further intensification and initial west-northwest wards movement.
A low pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea. It may become well marked during next 24 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
5:00 AM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================
Tropical Depression "OFEL" has maintained its strength as it moves west towards northern Mindanao-eastern Visayas Area
At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 9.4°N 130.1°E or 460 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar
Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Dinagat Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Provinces
5. Camiguin Island
Additional Information
=========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast Monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST October 23 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 8.0N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.6N 126.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of Mindanao
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 23 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.
At 6:00 AM UTC. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and concentrated into a depression. Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.0N 65.0E or about 800 km west of Amini Divi, India and 1200 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to intensify further and move west northwestward towards Somalis and Yemen coast during the next 72 hours.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 16.5N and 60.0E to 70.0E.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation Index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to Phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over north Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia and Yemen coasts. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind Shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. There is no change in wind shear during past 24 Hrs.
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:32Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 14:20:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°44'N 77°43'W (13.7333N 77.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 301 miles (484 km) to the SSW (192°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,378m (4,521ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 243° at 31kts (From the WSW at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the S (190°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:30Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 6 nautical miles to the S (180°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Flight level center with convective comma shaped spiral. Sfc winds at FL center 060/20kts
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
17:30 PM IST October 23 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB01-2012 over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and lays now near 11.5N 64.0E or about 950 km west northwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 1100 km esat southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system may intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours as it moves west northwestward for some time then move westward towards Somalia coast.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -76C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 8.0N to 12.5N and between 59.0E to 64.0E. Moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea between 6.5N to 16.5N east of 58.0E. Convection is more intense in the southwestern sector of the depression.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of system.
Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification.The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over east central and southeast Arabian Sea. It is about 26-28c over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E). The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over west central and southwest Arabian sea (west of 60.0E). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The maximum vorticity and low level convergence lie over southwest sector of the depression. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low near system center (5-10 knots) and moderate (10-20 knots) towards north and south of the system.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
11:00 PM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================
Tropical Depression "OFEL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move west northwest in the general direction of Surigao Del Norte
At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 8.9°N 128.6°E or 170 km northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.
Signal Warnings
=================
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar
5. Bohol
6. Camotes Island
Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Dinagat
2. Surigao Provinces
3. Agusan Provinces
4. Camiguin Island
5. Misamis Oriental
Additional Information
=========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 24 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 8.8N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.8N 123.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 12.8N 118.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.6N 113.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
20:30 PM IST October 23 2012
=====================================
At 15:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.5N 63.5E or 1000 km west northwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 1050 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to move westward towards Somalia coast during the next 48 hours.
According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -79C. Associate broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 6.5N to 16.5N to 64.0E. Convection is more intense in the southwest sector of the deep depression.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots, The central pressure of the system is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.
The sea surface temperature is about 29-3. Over east central and southeast Arabian Sea. It is about 26-28C over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E).The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The maximum vorticity and low level convergence lie over southwest sector of the depression. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low near system center (5-10 knots) and moderate (10-20 knots) towards north and south of the system. There is decrease in wind shear by 5-10 knots during past 24 hrs.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
9 HRS: 11.5N 62.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
15 HRS: 11.5N 61.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
39 HRS: 11.5N 59.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 24 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Southern Philippines
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 10.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.8N 121.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
45 HRS: 14.1N 116.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.6N 111.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Latest on Sandy. She's intensifying. A hurricane in the morning would be no surprise.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 03:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 3:07:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°12'N 77°08'W (15.2N 77.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 194 miles (313 km) to the S (187°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,331m (4,367ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 201° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:44:30Z
Updated the entry. 19L is now Tony. Navy has Tropical Depression OFEL as 93W, NOAA has it as 93B. Here's 95B..
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 04:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 4:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°22'N 77°08'W (15.3667N 77.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (295 km) to the S (187°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,328m (4,357ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 304° at 40kts (From between the WNW and NW at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:44:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 4:13:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged Eye
name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr average error in Nautical miles
NAM 25.4 75.0 44.9 58.7
NAM2 12.2 54.0 52.9 -
NAMI 0 46.1 39.9 8.4
OFCL 4.4 49.6 - -
FIM9 45.1 26.6 48.1 26.3
AVNO 32.0 34.9 80.7 84.5
AEMN 28.2 39.6 61.1 106.5
MRFO 33.6 43.1 75.9 -
TV15 0 49.7 77.0 80.3
I googled Surigao Del Sur & one came up in the general area but yeah, felt like I had something confused there. Thanks.
here is likely what India meteorology has for 93W
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 24 2012
===========================
A trough of low over Gulf of Siam and neighborhood persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 48 hours. Numerical Weather Prediction Models are indicating its further intensification and initial west northwestwards movement
Cloudsat of Sandy..
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index