Tropics Alive

By: Skyepony , 2:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012

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Atlantic
18L SANDY



East Pacific
17E



Central Pacific

West Pacific
24W SON-TINH



Indian Ocean

96A



02B NILAM


Southern Hemisphere




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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In October the planting frenzy continues for all of the state of Florida, while we harvest the last tastes of summer. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, collards, kale, Kohlrabi, Lettuce, Mustard, onions, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, califlower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, eggplant, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, peppers, potatoes, radish, spinach, summer squash, strawberry, tomato, turnips.

October 2012
30th-31st Good Days For Planting Beets, Carrots, Onions, Turnips And Other Hardy Root Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable. Good Days For Transplanting
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Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage (joshb100)
Cape Cod, MA. The building at the end of the dock was destroyed by Sandy.
Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage
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A real mix thanks to Sandy (the big storm). A few leaves of fall hanging in. Bare trees, snow, ice, and fog in the Great Smoky Mountains of North Carolina
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Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
980mb (28.94 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 175° (from the S) 22 knots (25 mph)
1000mb -182m (-597 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 509m (1,670 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 190° (from the S) 24 knots (28 mph)
850mb 1,247m (4,091 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F) 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
700mb 2,918m (9,573 ft) 15.0°C (59.0°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F) 245° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:28Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.86N 76.73W
Splash Time: 13:32Z


Finn~ Wow..7 years since Wilma. Hope you stay mostly dry there. Had your share of rain:)

Thanks about the art..my poor envelope ponies. I want to do like Rob suggested & get atleast one good piggyback shuttle done this year. It would be fun to pull it together & get back to art shows but where's the time?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
204. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
8:30 AM IST October 24 2012
=====================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB01-2012 over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestward and now lays near 11.0N 59.0E or 1500 km west of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 600 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The deep depression is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 9.0N and 10.5N at around 18:00 PM, October 25th. However the deep depression may weaken into a depression during the next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -73C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5N to 16.0N and 51.5E to 61.0E. Convection is more intense to the southwest sector of the deep depression.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50 -80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence shows decreasing trend during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. It increases towards Somalia coast.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 10.6N 56.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
21 HRS: 10.2N 54.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
45 HRS: 9.6N 50.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Nice horse drawing, you really have the Gift of Art - among so many other things... :)

Little windy and rainy here, we'll see if we get more tomorrow.

Wilma anniversary... wow... I was just on my way back from Finland 7 years ago when my flight was directed to Orlando due to Palm Beach Airport being closed. We had no dogs then so we stayed a week at my sister-in-laws house there as "Wilma refugees". People were sooo nice to us :)

Good night yalls, going to light a candle for everybody on Sandi's path. Never feels good to watch a cane hit vulnerable areas. May all living beings be safe and protected on her path.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7297
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
TRMM missed everything of interest globally.

Cloudsat of Sandy..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
200. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
you're welcome.

here is likely what India meteorology has for 93W

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 24 2012
===========================

A trough of low over Gulf of Siam and neighborhood persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 48 hours. Numerical Weather Prediction Models are indicating its further intensification and initial west northwestwards movement
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ya. 93W is not Ofel, but it has now crossed into the Bay of Bengal though.


I googled Surigao Del Sur & one came up in the general area but yeah, felt like I had something confused there. Thanks.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
The one outlier to watch is the NAM. It's actually doing well in the model error. Here's it & some of the better preforming models for Sandy.

name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr average error in Nautical miles
NAM 25.4 75.0 44.9 58.7
NAM2 12.2 54.0 52.9 -
NAMI 0 46.1 39.9 8.4
OFCL 4.4 49.6 - -
FIM9 45.1 26.6 48.1 26.3
AVNO 32.0 34.9 80.7 84.5
AEMN 28.2 39.6 61.1 106.5
MRFO 33.6 43.1 75.9 -
TV15 0 49.7 77.0 80.3

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
197. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ya. 93W is not Ofel, but it has now crossed into the Bay of Bengal though.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 04:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 4:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°22'N 77°08'W (15.3667N 77.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (295 km) to the S (187°) from Kingston, Jamaica.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,328m (4,357ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 304° at 40kts (From between the WNW and NW at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:44:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northwest quadrant at 4:13:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged Eye
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Hades~ Did the NAVY mess this up? Navy has Tropical Depression OFEL as 93W, NOAA has it as 93B.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Hey Everyone.. Wind has been up a little for a little over 24hrs now. High today was 19mph. Low to med height clouds racing in from the ENE. Rain is coming & more wind. Brevard south down the east coast should see showers tonight.

Latest on Sandy. She's intensifying. A hurricane in the morning would be no surprise.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 03:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 3:07:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°12'N 77°08'W (15.2N 77.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 194 miles (313 km) to the S (187°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,331m (4,367ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 201° at 57kts (From the SSW at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:44:30Z


Updated the entry. 19L is now Tony. Navy has Tropical Depression OFEL as 93W, NOAA has it as 93B. Here's 95B..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Southern Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 10.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots.


Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND


Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.8N 121.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
45 HRS: 14.1N 116.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.6N 111.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
20:30 PM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.5N 63.5E or 1000 km west northwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 1050 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to move westward towards Somalia coast during the next 48 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -79C. Associate broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 6.5N to 16.5N to 64.0E. Convection is more intense in the southwest sector of the deep depression.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots, The central pressure of the system is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.

The sea surface temperature is about 29-3. Over east central and southeast Arabian Sea. It is about 26-28C over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E).The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The maximum vorticity and low level convergence lie over southwest sector of the depression. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low near system center (5-10 knots) and moderate (10-20 knots) towards north and south of the system. There is decrease in wind shear by 5-10 knots during past 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

9 HRS: 11.5N 62.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
15 HRS: 11.5N 61.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
39 HRS: 11.5N 59.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
191. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 8.8N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.8N 123.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 12.8N 118.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.6N 113.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
11:00 PM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================

Tropical Depression "OFEL" has maintained its strength as it continues to move west northwest in the general direction of Surigao Del Norte

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 8.9°N 128.6°E or 170 km northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar
5. Bohol
6. Camotes Island

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Dinagat
2. Surigao Provinces
3. Agusan Provinces
4. Camiguin Island
5. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
189. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
17:30 PM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB01-2012 over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and lays now near 11.5N 64.0E or about 950 km west northwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 1100 km esat southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system may intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours as it moves west northwestward for some time then move westward towards Somalia coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -76C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 8.0N to 12.5N and between 59.0E to 64.0E. Moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea between 6.5N to 16.5N east of 58.0E. Convection is more intense in the southwestern sector of the depression.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of system.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification.The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over east central and southeast Arabian Sea. It is about 26-28c over west central and southwest Arabian Sea (west of 60.0E). The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over west central and southwest Arabian sea (west of 60.0E). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The maximum vorticity and low level convergence lie over southwest sector of the depression. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low near system center (5-10 knots) and moderate (10-20 knots) towards north and south of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:32Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 14:20:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°44'N 77°43'W (13.7333N 77.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 301 miles (484 km) to the SSW (192°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,378m (4,521ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 243° at 31kts (From the WSW at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the S (190°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:02:30Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 6 nautical miles to the S (180°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Flight level center with convective comma shaped spiral. Sfc winds at FL center 060/20kts
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
187. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
well.. it took 10 months but each basin of northern Indian Ocean now has at least one cyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
186. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 23 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC. Latest satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestward and concentrated into a depression. Depression ARB01-2012 lays near 11.0N 65.0E or about 800 km west of Amini Divi, India and 1200 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The system is likely to intensify further and move west northwestward towards Somalis and Yemen coast during the next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 16.5N and 60.0E to 70.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation Index currently lies over phase 1 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to Phase 2 during next 3 days. Hence it is favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over north Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 80-100 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia and Yemen coasts. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind Shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. There is no change in wind shear during past 24 Hrs.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
185. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST October 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 8.0N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.6N 126.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of Mindanao
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
184. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
5:00 AM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================

Tropical Depression "OFEL" has maintained its strength as it moves west towards northern Mindanao-eastern Visayas Area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 9.4°N 130.1°E or 460 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Dinagat Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Provinces
5. Camiguin Island


Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
183. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
23:30 PM IST October 22 2012
===================================

The trough of low lies over southeast Bay of Bengal with the upper air cyclonic circulation aloft. The meteorological analysis suggest that a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman Sea around October 24th. Numerical weather prediction models are indicating its further intensification and initial west-northwest wards movement.

A low pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea. It may become well marked during next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
NEwxguy~ I'd hate to see them or anyone get dumped on, what a large storm though. Seems inevitable for someone.


Models really initialized bad that last run. Don't believe the models yet..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 20:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°26'N 78°19'W (12.4333N 78.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the NW (307°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 42kts (From the SSE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 446m (1,463ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 444m (1,457ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:20:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MIN SLP 999MB DISPLACED FROM WIND CTR 045/12NM
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Really worried about those poor people in Haiti,this could really dump alot of rain on them,not what they need.
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Good vibes for GOES-13..last frame there is a nnooooo:)

Here's model error for 99L so far. It has all the models just about except the ECMWF. AEMN (gfs), FIM9 (except the last run initialized way off), MRFO & Models starting with the letter T seem to be getting this one so far. You can plot these out on Google map through a link off that page too. They all take it right to Jamaica..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Fresh OSCAT maybe a little south of where 90L is marked on surface map..



Hades~ Thanks for the updates. I'll update the entry.

Wab~ Racheal didn't make it. She was tenacious. That alone was a feet.

Thanks about the envelope pony. I must have drawn it in the last few weeks. It's on recent mail..but I hardly remember drawing it. They mindlessly escape my head somehow:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
178. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 22 2012
=====================================

A low pressure area has developed over southeast Arabian Sea. It may concentrate into a depression
during next 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
177. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
9:00 AM JST October 22 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.2N 133.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.2N 131.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST October 22 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.0N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
175. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
a low pressure area would develop over southeast Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.

a low pressure area would form over the same area around 24th October. This low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal may intensify into a depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
174. whitewabit (Mod)
Nice drawing !! I can't draw a stick man and make it look good ..
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173. whitewabit (Mod)
if she goes warm core to TS again will that be some kind of record ??? has to be something if she manages to do it ..
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172. whitewabit (Mod)
RACHAEL is like the energizer bunny .. she keeps going, and going and going ...
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RACHAEL reprise on FNMOC. Click pic for long JAVA loop.



Looks born again subtropical. Expected by gfs to make it back to warm core.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Quoting whitewabit:
you're on early this morning ..


I think I'd got up for water. Noticed Maria was dead. She was the last one to go before the invests would start really pulling together. And here we go..99L & 90L are here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
169. whitewabit (Mod)
you're on early this morning ..
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168. whitewabit (Mod)
Skye .. Got the seeds today .. Thanks so much !!! Do they need to be put into the frig to acclimatize them before planting ??

Hope the season is long enough up here for me to get a few ...
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Asheville, NC & areas around there are getting hit by the dust that kicked up in the Plains yesterday. Pic story & here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Justifying the girlfriends who won't let their men taste my cooking.. My variation on this cinnamon buns recipe. Replace 1 cup flour with ground flax & oatmeal. Add an extra 1/4 cup flour & use 3 tbsp honey instead of the 6 of sugar. For the filling use a 4inch stick cinnamon & 1/4 of a nutmeg, grind in the coffee grinder with pecans & butterscotch chips instead of brown sugar...add that to the butter (& your afternoon coffee:). It's good enough without the icing...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Updated the entry..storms, when to plant.

October 19th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wash Windows, Advertise to Sell, Travel for Pleasure
October 20th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wash Windows, Advertise to Sell, Travel for Pleasure
October 21st
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
October 22nd
Bake, Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors
October 23rd
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 24th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 25th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
October 26th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
October 27th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
October 28th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes


& for all those that have suffered frost..


Hey Everyone:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
More on GOES 13 weather satellite returned to service
....
According to NOAA, the trouble was caused by a vibration from aging lubricant in the sounder instrument, and engineers devised an "outgas" procedure to improve the data.

"For GOES 13 and its sister satellites, we now have an early detection process that will enable us to take early action to prevent a similar occurrence in the future," said John Leslie, a NOAA spokesperson.

Leslie said the anomaly in the sounder filter wheel will have no lifetime effect on the instrument. GOES 13 launched in May 2006 and is designed for a 10-year life.
....
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Had set today aside for mowing and garden stuff.
Game called on account of rain!

Two gray days in a row making me just want to sleep.
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Cool info on the NASA Suomi sat - thanks!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7297
Thanks {{{Skye}}}

Lake Worth got flooded this evening, 3.85" fell in just a few hours according to news on the radio on our way home at 10pm (Over 4" in neighboring Boynton Beach) We got soaked to our knees crossing Lake Ave to a concert at the Lake Worth Playhouse. Flood waters at some places were over the curbs.
Been raining so much that we have not had to water the lawn since June! Maybe w
Temps are niiiiice, in the high 70s F :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7297
160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #105
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 27.3N 131.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 31.4N 140.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
48 HRS: 33.3N 151.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 33.7N 161.2E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
159. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
0:30 AM RET October 18 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1004 hPa) located at 15.9S 54.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: No Report

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.6S 52.1E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and keeps on rapidly weakening.

Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night-time.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Saturday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Everything has is pulsing down across the world. Convection has dropped way off in all the storms. Anais nothing but a naked swirl.

Hades thanks for the updates. Hard to believe it's still gust 45kts the way it looks.

FINN~ Super congrats on the new house! Mailed you stuff..

Everybody that's been waiting on mail from me for the last 3 or more months it all left yesterday:)

One of the songs on the new Trey album is a cover of this song called Clint Eastwood. Saw them play it live at Bear Creek last year. The album one has no horns & sounds like your in a club or something.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Yes, nice sound...

Today it's official - we have a new home! :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7297
156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1003 hPa) located at 15.6S 55.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: No Report

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.0S 52.8E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 16.9S 50.2E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weaken.

Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night time.

Low level totally exposed central vortex remains however well defined.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong north-westerly wind-shear and sea surface temperatures too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Friday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
The new Trey album Traveler just arrived. Couple of songs in..sounding sweet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 76.1 °F
Dew Point: 73.9 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 2:02 AM EDT on August 23, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 70.9 °F
Dew Point: 66.1 °F
Humidity: 85%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 2:02 AM EDT on August 23, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 77.0 °F
Dew Point: 75.0 °F
Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:42 PM EDT on August 22, 2014

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