Tropics Alive

By: Skyepony , 2:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012

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Atlantic
18L SANDY



East Pacific
17E



Central Pacific

West Pacific
24W SON-TINH



Indian Ocean

96A



02B NILAM


Southern Hemisphere




A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

In October the planting frenzy continues for all of the state of Florida, while we harvest the last tastes of summer. It's time to turn compost into your garden, improve soil & throw seed to the ground. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower, collards, kale, Kohlrabi, Lettuce, Mustard, onions, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, english peas, radish, spinach, strawberry, turnips.

South FL all beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, califlower, celery, collards, corn, cucumber, eggplant, Kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, all peas, peppers, potatoes, radish, spinach, summer squash, strawberry, tomato, turnips.

October 2012
30th-31st Good Days For Planting Beets, Carrots, Onions, Turnips And Other Hardy Root Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable. Good Days For Transplanting
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Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage (joshb100)
Cape Cod, MA. The building at the end of the dock was destroyed by Sandy.
Hyannisport Yacht Club Sandy Damage
Corn Neck Road & Cresent Beach, Block Island, RI (JudyGray)
Corn Neck Road & Cresent Beach, Block Island, RI
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A real mix thanks to Sandy (the big storm). A few leaves of fall hanging in. Bare trees, snow, ice, and fog in the Great Smoky Mountains of North Carolina
Hello Winter  Goodbye Fall

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Sheesh Skye! You're under relentless pounding, hope all well there.

Here, it's almost over. Temps will fall to low 50's in the next days. Will be nice to wear a SWEATER for a change. Aaaahh!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7350
rofl
:)
Just noticed new avatar also.

I double dog dare ya to open that umbrella in a hurricane.

Hmmm? You wouldn't need your broomstick anymore.
:)))

Shep slips under desk.

Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10091
253. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.5N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.7N 106.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.2N 104.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.9N 103.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
252. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


numerical weather prediction model show quite the Arabian Sea cyclone next week.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
Yeah Skye, noticed your Sandy Avatar.
I like it!

Thanks Finn, all good here!
Now just a matter of worrying about friends to the north.

Take good care all!
Out for the night.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32240
Stay safe there Rob!

Skye, Wab's right about the foot... don't get double crippled...

We're ok here for the moment (3 miles inland from the Atlantic), just nasty wind gusts - tore our patio table umbrella. Stupid me, I had folded and tied it, but didn't take it in. A gust got under the ties and ripped the fabric to pieces leaving just a bare and tied wooden skeleton. And of course some power outages. But hey, this isn't even worth mentioning.

Yes, got a fridge full of avocados neatly packed in breathing veggie zip bags. Welcome to the guacamole party, gonna last all week :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7350
249. whitewabit (Mod)
Skye .. Hey how is Skyepony doing in this wind and rain?? I know you have said he doesn't like it ..

Make sure you don't get your foot in his way!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31555
As many as 7,300 customers were without power because of outages today, in Brevard County, FL. Currently there is 800.


Finn~ Your poor crop! You could probilby keep some longer in the fridge. So glad your not flooded.

Rob~ Haha..enjoy those:) Went to the beach today. Was invigorating all that wind.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Bow shaped thingies are starting to head this way.
Stop that!
:o)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32240
246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.1N 107.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 19.6N 105.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.7N 102.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
...Sandy ripped off most avocados from our tree. Guacamole for a week for whole the neighborhood!




Thanks Finn!
Needed to find a little humor in this thing somewhere.

Just checking in to see how you guys on the east coast are making out. All fine here.

Parents went to St Augustine this am. Not gonna be good beach weather this weekend.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32240
Talking about old storms... Nadine, you beautiful, brave little hurricane, we will never forget you! :)
{{{Skye}}} you're getting whacked, saw a vortex signature close to you... stay safe!
Horrible LA sinkhole :(
Sandy ripped off most avocados from our tree. Guacamole for a week for whole the neighborhood!


Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7350
LA highly flammable, radioactive sinkhole update. Those poor people are still put out of their homes.

A sharp tremor was recorded by USGS monitors just after 9 p.m. Wednesday at the site of the giant Louisiana sinkhole in Assumption Parish. The giant sinkhole appeared in August near the Bayou Corne and Grand Bayou areas. The Assumption Parish Police Jury says the tremor was large enough that the body wave phases could easily be identified. A body wave travels through the interior of the earth. The preliminary location of the tremor was just SE of Oxy #3 cavern at a depth of 500m. There is no additional information specific to this seismic activity at this time. The sinkhole is now about four acres in size. Residents were forced from their homes on August third, two months after the bayous started bubbling. They are still evacuated from their homes.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Hades~ Yeah India doesn't do so well with well developed Tropical Cyclones or monsoons for that matter.



Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island.. kind of impressive for hourly reports.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
241. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
that low in the Bay of Bengal sure is taking its time to develop, but it could be good for India not to have a developed cyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
Finn~ Yeah I just secured the lawn furniture, locked a freaked out Busterpony up & put the storm shutter down on the chicken house.

Shear & a little dry air really undid Sandy spreading her wide as expected. This is a doom scenario for the NE. Hope people are preparing.

Hades~ LOL..Patty persists:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
239. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 26 2012
====================================

a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 24 hours.

A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around October 30th.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
238. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Link

heh, nice error on this advisory list.

** WTUS82 KKEY 261215 ***
HLSKEY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
REMNANTS OF PATTY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
815 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
Few nasty gusts here, Sandy is mean. I'm watching the models with my mouth open, just unbelievable...
Hope people are prepared.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7350
Brevard County schools are closed tomorrow. Tropical Storm force winds are expected in the afternoon with 20ft waves. Highest winds here today was 26mph.

Hades~ Thanks, I'll have to update again. The tropics really do tend to pulse up & down globally together.

Wab~ It's usually a tourist. I've kayaked in 14'. Higher than 8' & I prefer a PFD. This 20' tomorrow..no way! I might have to go see it though. Gonna hate to see the erosion.

NEwxguy~ Glad you are watching this. Looking fairly doom for the NE. Two huge storms coming together.


Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 03:18Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 32
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 2:02:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°15'N 76°02'W (25.25N 76.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (133 km) to the E (81°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 300° at 32kts (From the WNW at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SSW (205°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,380m (7,808ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,413m (7,917ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Fix Determined By: Penetration
O. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 20:10:49
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
235. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (990 hPa) located at 14.6N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.1N 110.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.7N 106.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 19.1N 101.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
234. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India tracked that system well, it seemed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
233. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved westward and crossed Somalia coast near 9.5N between 17:00 - 18:00 PM UTC, today. The cyclone also weakened into a deep depression after it crossed the coast. Deep Depression, Former Murjan now lies near 9.5N 51.0E, overland Somalia. The deep depression will likely move west southwestward and weaken further.

Satellite imagery show associated broken intense convection over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 12.0N west of 53.0E and over northern Somalia and adjoining Ethiopia. Convection has split, indicating disorganization and weakening of the cyclone. The current cloud top temperature due to convection is around -50 to -60C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The state of the sea off Somalia coast will be very rough.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
232. whitewabit (Mod)
Was looking at some of the beach cams in your area .. going to be a lot of erosion .. pretty rough already ..

A couple of surfers in one cam .. Hope they are careful!!! always seems like one dies during storms like this .. so sad !
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31555
Hi,skye,just dropping by,looks like east coast of florida is going to have a stormy couple of days,we'll have to wait and see just how close she comes. And I still don't know whats going to happen when she gets up to us.Such a strange weather pattern,its like Mother Nature was sitting around thinking of something to cook,looked at cookbook and said I think I'll just wing it on this system and throws the book out the window.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
almost at landfall in this advisory. land interacting noted.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
229. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved southwestward and now lays near 9.5N 51.5E or about 2300 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) 430 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen and 160 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 9.0N between 18:00 and 21:00 PM UTC, today.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Murjan is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C. Associated broken to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 14.0N and to the west of 54.5E and adjoining Somalia.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea around the center of the cyclone is high.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1006 hPa mean sea level pressure and 30 knot winds.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 16.0º n and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity and upper level divergence show no significant change during past six hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been fall in wind shear by 5-10 knots. The system is interacting with land surface

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 8.5N 49.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.5N 47.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
11:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC. Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved southwestward and now lays near 10.0N 53.0E or about 2150 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) 300 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen, and 300 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone will likely move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 9.5N around 21:00 PM UTC, today (October 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 13.5N and to the west of 55.0E and adjoining Somalia coast. The maximum convection lies to the southwest sector.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1009 hPa mean sea level pressure

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0º n and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity show no significant change during past six hrs. However, upper level divergence shows increase during the same period. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been no significant change during past 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.6N 51.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 8.5N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

1:30 AM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 20.0°N 75.9°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
226. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm I just realized the IMD shows no Yellow, Orange or Red Warnings but they are doing 3 hour advisories as if they are running cyclone warnings.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
225. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved further westward and now lays near 10.5N 54.0E or about 2050 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep), about 250 km south southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen and about 400 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 5.0N around 21:00 PM UTC, Today (October 25th).

According to satellite imagery the Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 13.5N and to the west of 55.5E and adjoining Somalia coast. The convection shows curved band features disappearing. However, the maximum intense convection lies to the southwest sector.

3 minute sustained winds of Murjan is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots near the center. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence shows slight decrease during past six hrs. However, upper level divergence shows no significant change as well as lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (5-15 knots) around system center and there has been no significant change during past 24 HRS.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.1N 52.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.5N 50.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
36 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
224. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The IMD is really releasing their advisories in a nicely fashion as well this year. =)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved further westward and now lays near 10.5N 54.5E or 2000 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and about 280 km south southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N at around 0:00 AM UTC October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -65C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 14.0N and 48.0E to 55.0E. The convection shows curved band features disappearing

3 minute sustained winds near the center of Murjan is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28º c. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 10.0N 53.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 9.7N 52.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 9.3N 50.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
222. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 12.9N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.6N 115.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.2N 109.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 17.7N 105.2E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Storm Son-Tinh will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Son-Tinh will be upgraded to a severe tropical storm within hours

Cyclone will develop because system will move into higher sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
221. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
I am really impressed with India Meteorological Department for naming this system and keeping the intensity close to what is also reported by the JTWC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
220. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 24 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan has moved further westward and lays near 10.5N 55.5E or 1850 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 290 km southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone will likely move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N around 0:00 AM UTC October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea betwwen 7.0N to 15.0N and 49.0E to 56.0E. The convection shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots and gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.9N 53.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.5N 51.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
42 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
I hear ya wab... Luckily we'll get the East side.

Skye, I share your pain about lack of time to create stuff and go to fairs etc. But as I'm MUCH older than you (lol) I can look forward to retiring soon and going back to writing and making my healing jewelery stuff :) There... a wish voiced out loud to the entire universe!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7350
218. whitewabit (Mod)
Skye.. not liking how the the models are moving to the west sightly each run .. very warm water still between you and Cuba .. Sandy could be a 100 mph Cat II or even a low Cat III as it passes near by !!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31555
217. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 11.9N 122.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.1N 116.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.0N 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.5N 105.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
216. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 24 2012
========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan has moved westward and lays centered near 10.5N 56.0E, or about 1800 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and about 330 km southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone will move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N around 0:00 AM October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5N to 16.0N and 49.0E to 56.0E. The convection shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots winds gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 square around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
===================

12 HRS: 10.1N 54.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.7N 52.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45585
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Bogon~ Yeah, seeing a flurry of activity in the neighborhood, mostly clearing lines & cleaning up. I'll be getting to it soon myself.

This is what NWS is now telling east coast in my area to prepare for.


Potential for Low but Concerning Impact: Preparations should be made for the threat of minor to locally moderate wind damage. If realized, expect damage to unanchored mobile homes, porches, carports, and awnings along with some damage to shingles and siding. Large branches broken off trees, but several shallow-rooted and diseased trees blown down. Unsecured light-weight objects easily blown about and become dangerous projectiles. Dangerous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways, especially for high profile vehicles. A few roads impassable due to large debris. Scattered power outages, especially in areas with above ground lines. Descriptions are consistent with damage caused by tropical storm force winds (e.g., sustained winds 39 to 73 mph) in hardest hit places.


I've been leaning more & more..maybe up to 70% chance of a NE impact.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...
3:20 PM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 17.9°N 76.7°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
212. Bogon
Hey, Skye. I came by to see if you were taking sides in the Great Nor'easter of 2012 debate. Now I see that you have much more immediate and local concerns. Sandy must pass by Melbourne before it can menace Long Island or Newfoundland.

I'll be sending good vibes your way for the next few days. Take care.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 16:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°20'N 76°46'W (17.3333N 76.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (73 km) to the S (178°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,861m (9,386ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the E (86°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 174° at 84kts (From the S at ~ 96.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:41:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Yeh,couple days ago,thought it was far fetched,not so anymore as a few more models fall into the westward movement.
Lets hope none of us get much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
Was wondering when the watches and warnings for Florida would start popping up,this seems to be bending west more than they thought.


More & more models are bringing you threat too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 15:40:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°15'N 76°47'W (17.25N 76.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 51 miles (83 km) to the S (179°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,875m (9,432ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 323° at 61kts (From the NW at ~ 70.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:41:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:48:00Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Was wondering when the watches and warnings for Florida would start popping up,this seems to be bending west more than they thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1118 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE...AND MARTIN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1N...LONGITUDE 76.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 820 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL...OR ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 80 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
980mb (28.94 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 175° (from the S) 22 knots (25 mph)
1000mb -182m (-597 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 509m (1,670 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 190° (from the S) 24 knots (28 mph)
850mb 1,247m (4,091 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F) 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
700mb 2,918m (9,573 ft) 15.0°C (59.0°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F) 245° (from the WSW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:28Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.86N 76.73W
Splash Time: 13:32Z


Finn~ Wow..7 years since Wilma. Hope you stay mostly dry there. Had your share of rain:)

Thanks about the art..my poor envelope ponies. I want to do like Rob suggested & get atleast one good piggyback shuttle done this year. It would be fun to pull it together & get back to art shows but where's the time?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38151

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 81.7 °F
Dew Point: 71.8 °F
Humidity: 72%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 8:25 PM EDT on September 18, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 65.8 °F
Dew Point: 60.9 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 8:25 PM EDT on September 18, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 68.0 °F
Dew Point: 63.0 °F
Humidity: 83%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:12 PM EDT on September 18, 2014

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