Tropics Alive E, F, G, H, I,J,K & L

By: Skyepony , 5:07 AM GMT on August 02, 2012

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Atlantic
12L LESLIE


11L KIRK


09L ISAAC




East Pacific
09E ILEANA




Central Pacific

West Pacific

92W



91W



Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


A site to check out storms.
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

August gardeners in Florida are busy readying beds, gathering seeds & planting. Harvest from late spring & early summer's garden continues. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL any beans, Broccoli, cauliflower, collards, corn cucumbers, onions, southern peas (cow, black eyed), peppers any squash, Tomato, turnips & watermelon.

Central FL pole beans, broccoli, celery, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, onions, peppers, pumpkins, any squash, watermelon.

South FL Pole & Lima beans, cantaloupes, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, southern peas, peppers, pumpkins, tomatoes & watermelon.

August 2012 Gardening Moon Calender
27th-29th Good Time To Plant Aboveground Crops.
30th-31st Barren Days. Fine For Killing Plant Pests.
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Rainy afternoons..


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Monticello Tornado (Skyepony)
A brief, weak tornado I saw in Monticello, FL.
Monticello Tornado
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91L is gone. 92E, 91C & 91W are new. 13W was 90W.

Here's a vortex from this afternoon's recon.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:12Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 16:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°01'N 80°41'W (16.0167N 80.6833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 232 miles (373 km) to the SSE (168°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,409m (4,623ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 62kts (From the SSE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,557m (5,108ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,471m (4,826ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:02:00Z
Radar Signature: Good



Bogon~ I knew you would like those. Not sure if you found this link where you can select Kelvin waves plus other anomalies & different areas too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Morning all! How about those happy folks at the JPL:))



& recon in Ernesto..check out the pressure, he's pulling it together now..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good

Bogon~ Hope they are battening down in Central America. Good point. Saw some models yesterday that made the jump clean to the EPAC.. Chances of a redevelopment out of remnants is even better.

Aqua~ There is some crazy videos on Youtube as that storm hit. What a great client. Seems like install could trade out for some tickets & such:)

Hades~ Thanks for keeping the updates coming, especially while I's slackin..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Thanks for showing us that chart from Michael Ventrice. The waves on his chart fluctuate much more quickly than the brown and green lines on the IR/200 hPA Anomaly map from the Climate Prediction Center. Whatever he's doing seems to match up very well with changing storm development. Florence bit the dust when she hit that brown line!
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3690
Ernesto looks perky this morning, but he's running out of room to maneuver. A lot of hurricanes moving along that path get funneled into the notch south of Belize and cross the isthmus into the Pacific.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3690
Lollapalooza- WOW - the promoters got all their weather-monitoring equipment from us. Next time, I think Rainman is gonna offer free install and technical help. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
15:00 PM JST August 6 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haikui (965 hPa) located at 27.4N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.8N 123.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 29.0N 120.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
72 HRS: 30.6N 119.1E - 45 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China

Additional Information
=====================

Haikui will move west for the next 12 hours then move gradually northwest

Haikui will be upgraded to a typhoon within 12 hours

Cyclone will develop because it will stay in a high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
Congrats to JPL & NASA tonight:)

Curiosity's shadow on Mars..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Thanks for the very good explanation Skye.
I've read about that before but didn't associate the name.

Watching NASA TV with fingers crossed!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 02:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 2:34:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°44'N 79°26'W (14.7333N 79.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 286 miles (460 km) to the SW (218°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,482m (4,862ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the WNW (287°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 356° at 33kts (From the N at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW (302°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:31:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (309°) from the flight level center
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER DEPRESSION 13
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Low Near Wake Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low (1004 hPa) located at 26.0N 162.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving north slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haikui (970 hPa) located at 27.1N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.2N 123.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 28.6N 121.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 30.2N 119.8E - 45 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
I think I can say with pretty good confidence Ernesto will try & follow the ULL in the Gulf of Mexico into MX. May get pushed a little south of there by the high.

91L made it to Lake City, FL today.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 02:03Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 1:27:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°53'N 79°19'W (14.8833N 79.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 273 miles (439 km) to the SW (218°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,486m (4,875ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 197° at 14kts (From the SSW at ~ 16.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (140°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:31:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:31:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Dropsonde found 1005mb.. though it was dropped in eye you can tell by the winds it missed..or it is closed to about 908mbs.

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1005mb (Surface) 175° (from the S) 22 knots (25 mph)
985mb 185° (from the S) 21 knots (24 mph)
945mb 175° (from the S) 13 knots (15 mph)
923mb 195° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
908mb 190° (from the S) 8 knots (9 mph)
855mb 345° (from the NNW) 1 knots (1 mph)
843mb 60° (from the ENE) 4 knots (5 mph)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
By recon the center looks wide but closed. I'll go ~14.900N 79.333W ~272 miles (436 km) to the SW (220°) from Kingston, Jamaica. 1005mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
CLEAR!!!..Ernesto is back.. Recon found the center.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 00:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 0:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°01'N 79°09'W (15.0167N 79.15W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 259 miles (416 km) to the SW (217°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 36kts (From the E at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NNE (20°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the north quadrant at 0:07:00Z



Rob~ The trades in the Pacific Ocean go east to west piling the warm water on the west side against Indonesia. Causing La Nina & neutral ENSO conditions to prevail..until every once in a while pockets of that warm water & it's coupled warm air, slide east along the equator, as the trade winds at the surface weaken. These are Kevin Waves. Like an ocean wave the front lifts & brings rain, behind the atmosphere sinks & stifles the T-waves & such moving in the opposite direction. Before El Niño we get a train of Kelvin Waves. Choo-choo. Link NOAA tracks & mentions them in their weekly ENSO discussions & such. Eventually they pile up some off South America & spread west to be EL Niño..til it's all blown back to the west Pac again.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
LOL

Luv ya Skye!
I do promise to give this some study!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
I did post in Masters blog what it was but since I totally forgot it here I'll leave way more details & a better link to other versions. If you don't know about Kelvin Waves they are fun to google..

Regional TRMM 3B42 rain rates, KW filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies, and 200 hPa GFS Wind anomalies
o Maps of 200-hPa winds and rainfall rates
o TMPA rainfall rates and 1° GFS analyses are used for the last 7 days
o Analyses are updated at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC with a 12-hour lag
o Anomaly plots only contain 200 hPa wind anomalies
o Negative (cold-colored contours) Kelvin Filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies represent upper-level divergence
o Positive (warm-colored contours) Kelvin Filtered 200 hPa VP anomalies represent upper-level convergence


Divergence aloft is lift that helps rain. Convergence aloft caused air to sink, no rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
That's okay.
I'm pretty good with interpreting satellite imagery, spotting trends, and applying that to what the models say...now I have to figure out what "Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies" means.

I've always hated homework!

Think I'll wait until after the Mars rover landing.
Looking forward to seeing how that works out!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
Ooops Rob~ I already went back & put the link in. That's it:)

Louis~ I think the complicated landing sequence makes it even more a nail biter. Thanks for reminding me~ that's tonight!

Fresh OSCAT

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Go mars lander. I hope you well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This it?
Tropics: TRMM rain rates (shaded) / GFS 200hPa wind anomalies (vectors) / Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies (contours)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
That didn't work. That was supposed to be an animation. It's here. Click forward.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Morning all~ Rocking some big hair here this morning. Haircon 3 with 91L remnants nearby. NFL take cover or put in some braids or something..Haircon 2 for ya'll.

Rob~ I took a pic this morning.. Overall not been as pretty as Beryl & Debbie.

Agree with more southern track. We so lost our Kelvin wave. It's west ho in this substance. I'm leery over going more than 3 days out on him though.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Guess you'll just have to draw it from memory!
That little sprinkle was all we got, but was nice to have a cool breeze.

Good Morning Skye!

Think I noted on my blog a couple days ago that Ernie might outrun his convection. I've leaned towards a more southerly track all along. We'll see I guess.

Have a great day!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
Ernesto's center is out in front of his convection this morning. He's weak enough that his chances of never getting north of Mexico are good.


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 12:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°30'N 76°09'W (14.5N 76.15W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the S (170°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,502m (4,928ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 46kts (From the SE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 148 nautical miles (170 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:25:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND, LAST 10 MINS BEFORE FIX.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Rob~ I forgot to get my 91L sunset picture. Was just raining lightly a few minutes ago.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Last recon pass we got no center fix. Not sure if they missed or why.

Ascat missed.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
I was so glad I got to see the original version.. I wondered why the online version had no Tweezer Reprise.

Apparently This Matters: Phelps and Phish
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
OSCAT caught Florence
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Ernesto is the modest TS I was expecting. Better than before but still over a cool lick of water, battling dust. Warmer water ahead. The Yucatan should help take out some of that dust ahead of him.

91L remnants coming in North end of the county over Kennedy Space Center. Daytona is getting the rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 01:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 1:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°13'N 72°18'W (15.2167N 72.3W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 230 miles (370 km) to the S (179°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,497m (4,911ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 173° at 39kts (From the S at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,572m (5,157ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,567m (5,141ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:54:00Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
TRMM of ERNESTO. Click pick for very large animation.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
9:00 AM JST August 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 23.2N 161.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 24.7N 161.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Wake Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
9:00 AM JST August 5 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (980 hPa) located at 26.7N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.5N 125.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 27.9N 123.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.8N 120.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
42. guygee

Only a light sprinkle this evening.
Pretty sunset.
Distant booming.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
Good Evening Skye - That vortex message shows a weaker system then I thought, good news for Jamaica's 50th Independence celebration at least. Meanwhile this weird trough brought on a dry day of subsidence for me...no rain at all yet from the wave/invest91L/trough.

This hot and dry weather has sure brought a bumper crop of Moringa pods so far, the trees have been flowering non-stop since this spring. I need to bring some pics and show you. If you or anyone else reading has any experience in extracting seed oil please do tell your secrets. I have a lot of Moringa seeds, and the prices for moringa oil ranges from $30-$120/liter, supposedly very good for either cooking or external use. I definitely want to carry the experiment though to the end and extract the oil to check the yield and do some taste tests before I plant more seeds.
Have a good night!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 71°49'W (15.1N 71.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (387 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,492m (4,895ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 44kts (From the SE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 114 nautical miles (131 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,582m (5,190ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,563m (5,128ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 13kts (~ 15.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 0:09:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Recon is there. Getting close to the center. See some 50mph surface winds. Much stronger than this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Dvorak has Ernesto at 4.1 985.4mb Uniform CDO.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
3:00 AM JST August 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 23.5N 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 24.0N 161.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Wake Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
3:00 AM JST August 5 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (985 hPa) located at 26.3N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.4N 126.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 27.8N 123.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.4N 121.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
Shep~ it is cooler & cloudier today..almost nice out there. 91.2 at the moment. Had some sprinkles.

06L is now Florence. A cute little tenacious storm with alot of hostile conditions ahead.

91L is along ECFL. Elongated mid-level rotation showing on radar just off shore east of me. Should come over NFL on it's way to Lake City, FL. Then get picked up & swept off though the Southeast.

Ernesto~ If I had to pick..Kinda like the HWFI (or slightly right of it) cause it goes to Lake City, FL area too.. so far 2 of our 4 storms have visited there & a third tried desperately to make it (thwarted by a front just east of Jax).. I like the LGEM for intensity because it has done really well on this storm. Stronger storm will feel the trough more too.

Damrey & Saola are dead.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
"Dig Post Holes"???

It's "never" a good time for that.

But, in Fla I'm waiting for winter.

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fresh partial pass of Ernesto


Aqua~ I always wonder when they leave early. It wasn't closed, maybe they decided to save the fuel.

Hades~ Navy is still holding off on declaring it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
9:00 AM JST August 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 23.5N 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 23.5N 161.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Wake Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
9:00 AM JST August 4 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (992 hPa) located at 24.9N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.8N 128.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - east northesat of Naha
48 HRS: 27.6N 125.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.1N 122.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
It looks like they aborted the mission in Ernesto & is heading back as he starts to blow up...
as long as it wasn't because of graupel....man, that was a night I never wanna go thru again.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey {{{aqua}}}~ Doesn't look like we are getting a vortex message this mission.

It looks like they aborted the mission in Ernesto & is heading back as he starts to blow up...

Maybe an interesting night for Ernesto.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Wunder where that non-tasked mission that just took off is going so late in the day Took off from near Houston, not LA too..

Hey Rob~ Hope they are going to check out 91L..you're right about the more impressive convection there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
Thanks Skye!
Don't always post but appreciate you posting the recon info.
A lot easier to pop in here a few times a day than to try to keep up with it.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31879
Ernesto may not be closed. No west wind on the first pass. Still 1003mb. Found strong TS winds 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
AF309 Just made it to Ernesto.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813
91L has been declared east of FL..

1759~ I'll go chance of a Tropical Storm for East coast FL, probably The Treasure Coast maybe north of there. Landfall tomorrow afternoon or later.. Lots more rain for NFL. Could easily be another controversial invest that barely or almost closes before landfall.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37813

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Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 99.0 °F
Dew Point: 76.5 °F
Humidity: 49%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 2:58 PM EDT on August 21, 2014
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Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 80.2 °F
Dew Point: 71.2 °F
Humidity: 74%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 2:58 PM EDT on August 21, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: -
Dew Point: -
Humidity: -9999%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:12 PM EDT on August 21, 2014

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