Tropics Alive E, F, G, H, I,J,K & L

By: Skyepony , 5:07 AM GMT on August 02, 2012

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Atlantic
12L LESLIE


11L KIRK


09L ISAAC




East Pacific
09E ILEANA




Central Pacific

West Pacific

92W



91W



Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

August gardeners in Florida are busy readying beds, gathering seeds & planting. Harvest from late spring & early summer's garden continues. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL any beans, Broccoli, cauliflower, collards, corn cucumbers, onions, southern peas (cow, black eyed), peppers any squash, Tomato, turnips & watermelon.

Central FL pole beans, broccoli, celery, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, onions, peppers, pumpkins, any squash, watermelon.

South FL Pole & Lima beans, cantaloupes, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, southern peas, peppers, pumpkins, tomatoes & watermelon.

August 2012 Gardening Moon Calender
27th-29th Good Time To Plant Aboveground Crops.
30th-31st Barren Days. Fine For Killing Plant Pests.
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Rainy afternoons..


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Monticello Tornado (Skyepony)
A brief, weak tornado I saw in Monticello, FL.
Monticello Tornado
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TRMM of 07L hitting the islands lastnight. Missed the most severe part. Click pic for quicktime. Neat is on the A side the clouds near SA are so mush higher than the tropical clouds associated with 07L.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
With patterns shifting the tropics shifted around a bit too. 93L is embedded in dry SAL. Navy is following 07L still. 95E is new, looks like it might be about closed.. 94E is now Hector-Ernesto. Gilma is looking weak, she's NE of Hector-Ernesto & should stay out to sea. 93W is now 14W set to drown the hell out of parts of the Philippines.

Hades~ Thanks for the updates.

LowerCal & Aqua~ We've blown up alot of stuff here. I remember sheltering in place back in the late '90s cause the wind was bringing a cloud of Atlas explosion my way. Thanks for the links..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
125. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HECTOR (EP082012)
2:00 PM PDT August 12 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Center Of "Hector" Expected To Pass Just South Of Socorro Island This Evening

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Hector (996 hPa) located at 18.1N 110.3W or 60 NM southeast of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.1N 112.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.4N 114.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.9N 116.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELEN
11:00 PM PhST August 12 2012
================================

Tropical Depression "HELEN" continues to move west northwest slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Helen located at 17.0°N 129.6°E or 690 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "HELEN" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
3:00 AM JST August 13 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 16.8N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.5N 128.2E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Quoting Skyepony:
....
Been meaning to share the down part of the week at NASA.. Have a few friends that worked on this..Morpheus moonlander. They tested it tethered at JPL, brought it here. This is the first test with no tether.

I heard it was a piece of hardware that failed and it isn't a problem with the design.

One great thing about this effort is that

"The Morpheus rocket engine burns liquid oxygen and methane, which offers several advantages over more traditional propellants. Methane can be stored longer in space, it's relative inexpensive and safe to operate, engineers said. It also could be eventually manufactured on the moon or Mars"

and the crash isn't a toxic hazard site.

Find more info on Morpheus at
Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Small test vehicle veers out of control, crashes at KSC.

BTW there were some similar failures before we first sent an American into space: Mercury-Redstone 1, Mercury-Atlas 1 and Mercury-Atlas 3.
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120....hmmm.

Guess better to keep the explosions on our own turf, than sending them to the moon to explode.
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07L is looking gamely tonight. With the mjo coming I expect him to be Ernesto part 2 with his track. Maybe a little weaker.

93L is weak. It should stay weaker longer then 07L then strengthen maybe a hurricane as it recurves out to sea between how high north it is & as the NAO goes negative.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Pros~ Thank you! It's beautiful..


Been meaning to share the down part of the week at NASA.. Have a few friends that worked on this..Morpheus moonlander. They tested it tethered at JPL, brought it here. This is the first test with no tether.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Photobucket
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Morning Bogon. Ernesto, now 94E should find the waters & air much more to his liking..



TRMM 3B42 Rain Rates (shaded) overlaid with 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (contoured)
Negative 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Divergence) are cool-colored contours
Positive 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Convergence) are warm-colored contours

Looks like 07L opened into a wave. Recon is out there right now.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
117. Bogon
Ernesto may be down for the count, but he's not out.

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Tylertown, MS~ A possible tornado has destroyed one building, moved another six feet off of its foundation and killed at least one dog at the St. Francis Animal Sanctuary in Tylertown. "We think it may have been a tornado," said Roland Vandenweghe, Walthall County's Emergency Manager. The Enterprise-Journal reports the National Weather Service in Slidell, La., said it will send someone to the area to determine if the damage done was by a twister. The storm also brought down trees and power lines in Summit, knocking out electricity to the police station and town hall. No other significant damage was reported in the area. One of the shelter's 350 dogs died when strong winds blew a kennel wall onto the building and another dog was critically injured. Two other animals had minor injuries. Neither of the shelter's two employees was hurt, said KiKi Byrd, a sanctuary spokeswoman. A veterinary technician who was on her way to the shelter said she saw a possible tornado touch down, and said it spun her car around. The winds were so strong that a 2-by-4 board was driven through the metal roof of one building, Vandenweghe said. "They had quite a few trees that had fallen on kennels," he said. A tree also fell on a cinder block building, Byrd said. Two dogs were missing, she said. Two other buildings that house 30 to 40 dogs are inoperable. Another was blown apart. The sanctuary was trying to set up make-shift houses for the dogs before more storms moved through the area, she said. Officials hoped to have the damage repaired in a month with the help of donations, she said.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
OSCAT of 23L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Ernesto has never taken the easy route.. He's killed two in Mexico. Flooding there remains a real concern.

Bogon ~That's unreal that so much of Manila went under.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
113. Bogon
Ernesto could have taken a 120 mile detour south over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec through a pass at only 735 feet. Instead he chose to do things the hard way by tackling the mountains of Oaxaca. Ernesto's circulation is disrupted, so it's hard to tell where the center is. Still, this morning it looks like he's almost made it across to the Pacific. Comb his hair, wipe the mud off, and he should be good to go.

It's still raining in China. Two million people had to evacuate because of typhoon Haikui. Thousands of homes were destroyed. At last report four people were killed.

More than ten times that number are dead as a result of flooding in the Philippines. It's still raining in Luzon.
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92L is 07L, 93L is new, 93E is gone.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
ASCAT



MLB NWS latest on our incoming tropical wave..

SUBSIDENT AIR ON LEADING PERIPHERY OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL BE RATHER SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY HELPED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LESS CONVECTION INHIBITION. HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTH SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH THE
EFFECTS FROM THE T WAVE.

WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISC) ON SAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS INDICATED AREAWIDE. WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THERE SHOULD BE SOME WESTERLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT RATHER
WEAK. SO POPS WILL BE AT LEAST 40 PERCENT AREA WIDE. GREATER BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD CAUSE HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50
PERCENT. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO THE LATEST MOS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN THE MODEL HANDLING OF MOISTURE TO GO HIGHER ON POPS YET.


Today starts a few good days by the moon calender to plant with rain coming..LOCALS PLANT NOW...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
91C & Florence are gone. Straightened out the floaters.

Ernesto is forming a decent blob straight south in the EPAC. More likely to reform & jump in this area then travel right across.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
My my we were bespoken over night... Message Date: Aug 09 2012 11:23:41 THE KMLB WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN TODAY...AUGUST 9TH...FROM APPROXIMATELY 7:30 AM TO 4:30 PM (1130Z TO 2030Z) FOR CONTINUED MAINTENANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE SPOKES ON RADAR IMAGERY.

There is imaginary lightning all over it too, has been for a week.

Ex-Florence has blown back up into a respectable blob.

Ex-91L is just now leaving leaving NFL, been hanging around there for days. Movie over the last many days of the 850vort. I said it last night on Masters blog..I just wouldn't be comfortable living around Lake City through the central panhandle area of FL without a Personal Flotation Device handy for all in the household.

Sea breeze is popping here. Acting like it may get pinned across this coast today (flying blind with no radar here). Almost made it back from Malabar when skies opened on I-95 just by my exit. Took cover at a gas station to save the hay.

Pros~ so good to see Discovery:) I'll be by to check out the rest.

Finn~ Ya'll have fun. If it's any comfort the gfs long range has a weaker storm going into LA around the 21st, other than that, looks quiet. Looks like FL gets to keep it's near daily showers so anyone covering for your garden should not have to do much.

Bogon~ The models look they favor the leap.

My lawn has been dying for the MJO to arrive...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
108. Bogon
Latest satellite loop looks almost as if Ernesto might be making a bid to reform in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. If he doesn't take a wobble south, he'll be missing a great chance.

Word is that the rotation we've been watching over eastern Cuba is an upper level low. If it ever develops tropical characteristics, it will be because there is so much support for tropical development in the Caribbean right now. There is plenty of steamy air with a couple of tropical waves moving through east to west. There is a wave of rising air (MJO related) moving west to east. The whole area is lit up with blobbage.
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Photobucket

The husband and I went to see Discovery. More photos on my blog.
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ROTF with Ernesto's "COC fight" and the Doom award - CMC definitely deserves it :)

I'm off with OtherBug on Sunday, back on the 21st, but we'll keep an eye on the swirly thingys here.

Stay safe {{{Skye}}} & SkyeFanFriends!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 02:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 1:49:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°49'N 91°46'W (18.8167N 91.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 96 miles (155 km) to the NE (53°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,373m (4,505ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 11° at 44kts (From between the N and NNE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the north quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OUTBOUND PEAK SFC WIND 56 KTS N QUAD IN VCNTY OF PEAK FL WIND IN FEEDER BAND
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
CMC takes a Doom award!

That's that gamely looking wave down over Hispaniola & East Cuba. Going for Lake City, FL.
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103. Bogon
Florence is kaput, but it's starting to look like we might get a locally grown tropical swirl happening over Haiti.
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The next wave coming this way has been starting to look gamely today.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Bespoken...lol.

Ernesto looks good for all that land. That was a great explanation Masters did of frictional convergence the other day. See the high flattening the NNE side.. Ernesto is gonna fight it to get his COC to the BOC.
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100. whitewabit (Mod)
Ernesto getting ready to get its feet wet again...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32393
99. whitewabit (Mod)
Skye .. on that power plant (Powerton) shut down .. wasn't caused by dead fish clogging the intake .. but was due to the heat of the water in the lake causing bearings to run hot so they shut it down for a few days and did some maintenance during that time ... it was right after we had had a string of 100 degree days ... and the lake's temperature had risen quite high ...

Morning Bogon ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32393
Latest NHC shifts cone south. Glad to know my eyes still work.
LOL


Mornin' Bogon!
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Good morning, wabit.

If the technicians fail, the radar will be bespoken. :o)
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Maybe just weary eyes, but on WV and VIS it looks to me like Ernesto is south of track and center might miss or barely graze the BOC.
Waiting for the next NHC Fix.
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95. whitewabit (Mod)
what if their attempt to install the filter fails ??? what will they do then ???

Good Morning

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32393
Morning all. MLB Nexrad down til maybe 6pm.

Message Date: Aug 08 2012 11:19:11 THE KMLB WSR-88D DUAL-POL RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE TODAY WEDNESDAY AUG UST 8 FROM 1200 UTC (8 AM EDT) TO POSSIBLY 2200 UTC (6 PM EDT). TECHNICIANS WILL ATTEMPT TO INSTALL A FILTER IN ORDER TO CURE THE SPOKING PROBLEMS.

93E is new. 91W is gone 92W is new & 13W has been named Kirogi


Guygee~ That was very disappointing yesterday. There was a wall off black that evaporated & broke up. You got more than my trace.

Hades~ Looks like 20' waves coming in with Haikui.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM KIROGI (T1212)
15:00 PM JST August 8 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Far East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kirogi (996 hPa) located at 31.8N 158.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 35.5N 154.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 41.4N 150.7E - Extratropical Low East Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TROPICAL STORM HAIKUI (1211)
15:00 PM JST August 8 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haikui (985 hPa) located at 30.2N 120.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 31.2N 118.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
48 HRS: 31.3N 118.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL STORM KIROGI (T1212)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Far East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kirogi (996 hPa) located at 31.4N 159.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 34.0N 156.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 40.0N 154.0E - Tropical Depression East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Impressive landfall...hope he sprawls and stalls, still a brief opportunity to send some moisture our way, but chances of that seem very slim.

Line of big storms headed towards Satellite Beach today, then the line split with some going west and north and the other piece hitting Palm Bay, just scraping by for a total 0.33 inches.

Checked my seed stack today, my very first Pili Nut sprout (more info) and my 25th Ramy Nut sprout(Canarium madagascariensis). Sent pictures to Dr. Zee.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA (EP072012)
8:00 PM PDT August 7 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: "Gilma" Strengthening Further..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gilma (994 hPa) located at 15.4N 115.0W or 535 NM southwest of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.5N 118.0W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.5N 120.0W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.2N 121.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
So very good to see you Wabit:)

Awesome TRMM pass of Ernesto.. click pick for a very large Quicktime.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
88. whitewabit (Mod)
Ernesto making landfall ..

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32393
Cloudsat of the Arctic storm..




Bogon~ I've been in awe of Haikua. That is an amazing amount of rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
I hear big lightning in the distant..

07E is now Gilma.

Ernesto is now a hurricane. Recon is flying home..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z

There may have been a AF309 recon plane sent out to/coming back from the islands today. There was a Dropsonde north of Hispaniola.


The beach was really nice today. Waves 3-4. Surfers out. Water feels a little cooler. There has been some upwelling with that wave over the weekend.

Afternoon storms coming now from the SSW..Thanks Lake O..it was getting really crispy!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Haikui appears to be well positioned to drive a storm surge into Hangzhou Bay, which already has the highest tidal bore in the world.
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One thing that may not be apparent from the floater images is the size of typhoon Haikui. The inflow to Haikui dropped half a meter of rain on Manila in the Philippines, nearly a thousand miles from the center of the storm south of Shanghai, China.

Ernesto looks puny by comparison.
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** WTPQ20 BABJ 071200 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HAIKUI 1211 (1211) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC
00HR 28.0N 123.2E 945HPA 48M/S
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 48KM
P12HR NW 13KM/H
P+24HR 29.9N 120.7E 975HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 31.2N 119.6E 1000HPA 14M/S=

CMA has 95 knots for Haikui at this hour while JTWC just downgraded to tropical storm with 60 knots..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON HAIKUI (1211)
21:00 PM JST August 7 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In East China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haikui (965 hPa) located at 28.3N 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
====================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.5N 120.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
48 HRS: 31.1N 119.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
72 HRS: 31.5N 119.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
Crazy refinery fire across the river from the Wunderservers. Wish the sever slaves a smoke free night & tomarrow.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 03:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 2:57:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°04'N 82°43'W (17.0667N 82.7167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 178 miles (286 km) to the SSW (209°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,387m (4,551ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 126° at 57kts (From the SE at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, open nw-wsw
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 2:32:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 01:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 1:26:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°55'N 82°28'W (16.9167N 82.4667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 180 miles (289 km) to the SSW (203°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,385m (4,544ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 11° at 34kts (From between the N and NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 1:30:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 1:30:20Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Good banding to the south
Max outbound SWS 46kts at 01:30:30Z
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
Yep, I added links to Ventrice's data on my blog. I'll be exploring the site more as time permits.
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91L is gone. 92E, 91C & 91W are new. 13W was 90W.

Here's a vortex from this afternoon's recon.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 16:12Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 16:00:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°01'N 80°41'W (16.0167N 80.6833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 232 miles (373 km) to the SSE (168°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,409m (4,623ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 62kts (From the SSE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,557m (5,108ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,471m (4,826ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:02:00Z
Radar Signature: Good



Bogon~ I knew you would like those. Not sure if you found this link where you can select Kelvin waves plus other anomalies & different areas too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373

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