Tropics Alive E, F, G, H, I,J,K & L

By: Skyepony , 5:07 AM GMT on August 02, 2012

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Atlantic
12L LESLIE


11L KIRK


09L ISAAC




East Pacific
09E ILEANA




Central Pacific

West Pacific

92W



91W



Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

August gardeners in Florida are busy readying beds, gathering seeds & planting. Harvest from late spring & early summer's garden continues. Don't forget to rotate your crops, for example..legumes (beans/peas), followed by heavy eaters like corn/tomatoes, then root crops & leafy greens. Surround with herbs & flowers when possible. Below is what each part of Florida should plant from seed this month.

North FL any beans, Broccoli, cauliflower, collards, corn cucumbers, onions, southern peas (cow, black eyed), peppers any squash, Tomato, turnips & watermelon.

Central FL pole beans, broccoli, celery, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, onions, peppers, pumpkins, any squash, watermelon.

South FL Pole & Lima beans, cantaloupes, collards, corn, eggplant, okra, southern peas, peppers, pumpkins, tomatoes & watermelon.

August 2012 Gardening Moon Calender
27th-29th Good Time To Plant Aboveground Crops.
30th-31st Barren Days. Fine For Killing Plant Pests.
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Monticello Tornado (Skyepony)
A brief, weak tornado I saw in Monticello, FL.
Monticello Tornado
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227. whitewabit (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 08:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 7:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°54'N 78°39'W (22.9N 78.65W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the NNW (336°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,391m (4,564ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 69kts (From the SE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:07:30Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fishing line!
ROFLMBO!

Good one!

My tiny town, even outskirts, was laid with fiber back in the 80s in anticipation of the phone companies offering TV service.

Well, it didn't work out quite like they planned, but we were DSL ready long before a lot of big cities.

The old regional telco was very forward looking. That was about 4 buyouts ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the cone is bending towards Atlanta.

RIP Neil Armstrong

All quiet her in Fort Myers. Quiet before the storm.
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
Hi Rob - Well I can remember a lot of complaints about posting the MIMIC graphics sometime in the past...those are only a couple megs or so. That could have been 4-5 years ago, though. I was trying to keep everything around half a meg. Depends on your page size too, I load up the max since the main blog goes by so fast I usually need to search for keywords to keep a conversation going. I suppose a lot more people are off of the dial-up at least...but think of all that dark fiber that got buried in the late '90's. They probably do not even know where it is buried anymore, kind of like the deeds to our homes...archeologists from the future may dig up that fiber and wonder, or maybe future tribes will use it for fishing line. j/ks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just dropping by to read up on your latest adventures.
Ants this summer have been insane. Must have been perfect weather for them the last few months because I've owned this place over 20 years and it's never been like this.

They aren't contra-flowing though so that's a good sign!

Hope the rest of your trip is fun! Looking forward to having you back here.

Guygee,
No problem with those animations, they aren't that big. When you get 10 people all posting the same loops on the same page on Doc's it does get rather tedious. A day or two ago someone posted a 39 mb loop of a past storm. That sort of thing slows the pages way down, even on DSL or Cable.
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Skye - My pleasure, it was an opportunity to learn something new. In fact, even though I don't have the code fully automated, it gets kind of addicting. I get the feeling some folks on the main blog do not like a lot of heavy animation due to bandwidth restrictions, but since I was playing around I made one more and hope you do not mind if I bring it here.



wv loop ending 1715Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good mOrning everyone! Great show in Pehlam, AL last night . I'd post a Hailey's Comet if I could.. On to Atlanta, GA tonight (sorry Louis)..

Hades Bolaven is impressive. Wow.

Guy Thanks a bunch for bring me that here! It looks like it's tried to go in two over the last two days. I see 30kt in Bahamas east Of Miami on surface map. Glad I picked up before I left.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
220. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (T1215)
21:00 PM JST August 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bolaven (920 hPa) located at 24.3N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 26.9N 127.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Naha, Okinawa
48 HRS: 31.8N 125.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 39.5N 124.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Yellow Sea

--
strongest cyclone of 2012 in the western Pacific Ocean
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Skye - Figured out a workaround for getting animated gifs off of the GHCC site without too much difficulty. Here is an animation of the strange S.FL blob that is still percolating.

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You know that movie "Powder" ? Where the guy attracts lightning? Well Skye ??? If you are attracting the center of the hurricane cone. Why don't you move to the west a little bit? ( :
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
217. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (T1214)
15:00 PM JST August 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tembin (975 hPa) located at 22.3N 117.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.5N 117.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.6N 118.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.6N 120.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Bashi Channel

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (T1215)
15:00 PM JST August 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bolaven (930 hPa) located at 24.2N 131.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 26.3N 128.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Naha, Okinawa
48 HRS: 30.3N 125.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 37.1N 124.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Yellow Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Hi Skye -

Just checking in.... Hope all is well with you. Are you traveling? If so be safe! And I know you are watching...
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Thanx wab, I hoped we could count on you to keep us informed while Skye is off to enjoy life :)

Isaac may turn out to be a blessing for AL and GA, which both have extreme drought. Hopefully it stays a weak storm.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
214. whitewabit (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 21:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 21:15:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°06'N 71°46'W (17.1N 71.7667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the SSE (159°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,374m (4,508ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 1° at 43kts (From the N at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the WSW (253°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the east quadrant at 18:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYE PRESENTATION ON RADAR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Skye - Dust devils, tornadoes and fire, oh my! Sounds like a fun drive.
I just got back from NE Ohio a couple of days ago, really nice weather, upper 70's days to mid 50's nights. A couple of gentle thundershowers rolled through.
Missed all of the heavy rains in FL, but glad it kept my plants watered while I was gone. Expecting some rain on the fringeof/related to Isaac, and some breezy conditions at the least.
Stay safe!
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Hey everyone! Very exciting day. Saw a tornado (Montecello,FL), dust devil and fire. Crazy under the trough. Pictures when I get back. On the backside now in the dry air Middle of AL.

Collins. I totally agree about needing to see where Isaac comes off Cuba. This bit of dry air is sinkIng toward the trough, circulation coming together in the me gulf.

Masters did a great blog on the uncertainties, models.....so refreshing after seeing cantore..


I'm on notmyiPod so skipping trying to update the entry.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Hades, I don't know if it was in -73- -74 or -75 when a typhoon hit Taiwan and I was so scared. I feel for them, they are great people. I have an old pic with me crossing the main street in Taipei, which was so flooded I was almost swimming, and the roof of the house next to mine was blown off.
Now, thanks to WU, I'm prepared, so no fear here. I hope all Floridians are finalizing their preps. Isaac is so big we're gonna get slammed even if it doesn't make a landfall in FL.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
210. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (T1215)
21:00 PM JST August 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bolaven (955 hPa) located at 20.2N 134.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.4N 131.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Japan
48 HRS: 24.5N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Naha, Okinawa
72 HRS: 27.1N 126.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinawa Island Waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON TEMBIN (T1214)
21:00 PM JST August 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Tembin (955 hPa) located at 22.7N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.6N 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Taiwan Strait
48 HRS: 21.3N 118.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.9N 118.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Good morning Skye,
Glad Tuesday's stormage didn't cause damage to you.
Hmmm, I-storm models keep trending West. I would say it's hard to predict with Cuba standing in the way. The mountains there have had a tendancy to tear up storm structure in the past. We probably won't have a real clear picture of where it's going or how strong it will be until it gets into the Florida Straits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finn~ The ants have been crazy here too.

Thanks for posting models!

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
For Isaac I've been liking west of me, not sure if that's over land or the gulf.. I'll go a little higher on the RNC odds of impact. To the trough, into NFL.

I'm leaving model performance of Isaac. OFCL hit the lid, leading after it's first 24hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
For the past 2 days we have ants EVERYWHERE... Same happened before Wilma and Faye. However, this is a big system so we'll probably get a lot of rain.

Have a blast, you so deserve it !!!
I'll try post some updates, Wab will hopefully fill in for you.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
Collinsfarm~ That made a mess. Lightning was pretty heavy. Just south of me in Palm Bay there was trees & carports down. What a trough.. Hope it's been nicer to you.

Finn~ Yeah I really started getting ready a few days ago. I'm off to play. Be back Sunday. Maybe I can check in.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Isaac Intensity
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Latest GFS is unavailable, CMC has moved the track a tad West (had Isaac going to Carolinas before. Some models have shifted a tad East, except the ecmwf - which wins the doom award... needless to say I hope it also wins the error award.

Radar: Lake Okeechobee is getting a water level adjustment!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
Ditto Collins.
{{{Skye}}}, you are obviously outta denial by now and preparing. Just came to say hi and see if your blog had any mercy for Isaac's cone...
Rut row.

We're moving on Saturday, not the best time for it, yet just in time.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
Morning Skye,
How'd you all fare yesterday from the "land cane" that blew through? Hope you and all the horse are ok.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Finn. It's a beautiful name.

I'm in cone denial. I suppose I should put it up.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Average model error for Isaac in nautical miles..low numbers here are good.. I'll put my money on models starting with the letters G, M & T...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
The name "Bolaven" is a Laotian word (from Laos) and means a mesa or a plateau

I was hoping Isaac wouldn't go to the GOM, but not happy with the latest track either. I guess SFla can't dodge a cane forever... :(
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
TRMM of the center of Bolaven click pic for very large quicktime movie.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
TRMM pass of 96L. Click pic to see large quicktime.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Hades~ what does Bolaven mean?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
194. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON IGME (TEMBIN)
5:00 AM PhST August 22 2012
================================

Typhoon "IGME" continues to weaken as it moves west northwestward

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Igme (Tembin) located at 22.3°N 124.8°E or 320 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
=========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern Seaboards of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "IGME".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

Meanwhile, another Tropical Cyclone with an international name Typhoon "Bolaven" was located at 1,600 km east of extreme northern Luzon.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
I'm getting hammered by that trough & the models are being unkind.

Yep there's Isaac. AF307 is leaving. They had 2 vortex messages. This is the first & strongest.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1520'N 5320'W (15.3333N 53.3333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146 at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25C (77F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25C (77F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND


Kermit flew out & landed in Barbados. Looks like it is suppose to fly tomorrow evening est, should improve the models.

Louis~ I'm blowing too. Waiting on Kermit.

NEwxguy~ Thanks for bringing your thoughts. I'm not going to be able to comment on this storm as much as I'd like.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Looks like we have Isaac at 5 pm,really trying to wrap itself up and get rid of that dry air.Models are still pretty split on where this is going.If gets strong fast,it may get pulled north.And 96L is really looking good behind,so much for an inactive season.
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OH Great !!
I guess Ft. Myers is the US model bullseye.
I keep puckering up and blowing towards the east, I figure if I do it enough times, it might blow the storm a bit to my east.
heeheee
Id rather be in the bullseye 7 days out than 7 hours.
Peace
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (T1215)
3:00 AM JST August 22 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bolaven (970 hPa) located at 19.1N 139.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.9N 136.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Okinotori waters
48 HRS: 22.5N 132.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Japan
72 HRS: 24.1N 128.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON TEMBIN (T1214)
3:00 AM JST August 22 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Southeast Of Ishigaki Jima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Tembin (960 hPa) located at 22.1N 125.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.8N 123.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Yaeyama Islands
48 HRS: 22.9N 121.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
72 HRS: 23.0N 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Seems like these two are tied. Atleast for now. GEOS-5 isn't even done with it's 18Z run. Closes 95L tomorrow at 15z. You can see the thin tie that binds & hampers both in the model & tonight.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
Fresh Cloudsat of 96L

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
GEOS-5 nails Haiti..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
186. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (T1215)
9:00 AM JST August 21 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bolaven (985 hPa) located at 18.2N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.6N 138.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.2N 134.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Of Japan
72 HRS: 22.7N 130.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON TEMBIN (T1214)
9:00 AM JST August 21 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Tembin (945 hPa) located at 20.0N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.3N 124.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 22.7N 122.4E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 22.7N 119.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Recon is finding an elongated center. Pretty good winds in that trough on the way there.


NEwxguy~ Good to see you. Hope you considered adopting another. Know what you mean starting to seem overdue & active. Crazy looking trough too. It was 95º a minute ago, now I have lightning:)

Hi Finn!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
{{{Skye}}}
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7419
Hi,Skye,haven't dropped by your blog in ages,meant to earlier when you posted those nice thoughts about losing my dog Prince,thank you so much for those thoughts. I am still missing him so much.
I'm going to be dropping by people who do a good job following the tropics,now that the atlantic has woken up.I still can't help but feel the US has had a long break,but time is probably up.These storms out there worry me,just because the weather pattern is transforming into a pattern that will allow a storm to come onshore.Florida and the East coast seem to be at greatest risk.
So I'll be stopping by to see what you have to say as these storms approach as I will with few other bloggers are good at following these storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Added recon to go to the Gulf of Mexico 95L this afternoon.

4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED --
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 20/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 20/1630Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W
E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
96L is new. Fresh off Africa.

96E is gone.

TEMBIN gathered that wrath I was talking about yesterday. It just had that RI about to happen look to it.


Hades~ Models are looking a little less together on TEMBIN this morning..

StormGoddess~ They look like they put on a great live show.. Thanks!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (T1215)
15:00 PM JST August 20 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bolaven (1000 hPa) located at 17.4N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.1N 139.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.3N 135.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Japan
72 HRS: 21.7N 131.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON TEMBIN (T1214)
15:00 PM JST August 20 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Tembin (960 hPa) located at 18.4N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.1N 125.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 23.3N 124.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.1N 121.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
179. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tembin/Igme really intensifying fast in the last 6 hours..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
178. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17
9:00 AM JST August 20 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.8N 141.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 18.5N 140.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON TEMBIN (T1214)
9:00 AM JST August 20 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Tembin (975 hPa) located at 18.0N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.0N 125.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 22.0N 124.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.1N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
Quoting Skyepony:
StormGoddess~ Thanks for turning us on to that song Ever Dream:)

TRMM passs of 07L. Click pick for small quicktime movie.



You're welcome Skyepony. :)




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