Tropics & 05L

By: Skyepony , 2:52 PM GMT on July 01, 2012

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Atlantic
99L


East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
99W


11W DAMREY


10W SAOLA


Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

July gardening in Florida is harvesting, keeping the weeds down..North & central FL can still plant a few summer type plants. South FL should plant nothing this month. August is huge planting month for all of FL. So get ready..July is a good month to plan & order seeds for fall & winter plants. Look for a few cloudy cooler hours this month to keep the beds & containers up if you can, makes fall garden go in alot easier.

North FL~ Lima Beans, southern peas (cow, black eyed), okra, eggplant, gourds & watermelon.

Central FL~ okra, southern peas & gourds.

South FL~ Plant nothing..

July 2012
28th-30th Seeds Planted Now Will Do Poorly And Yield Little.
31st Any Aboveground Crops That Can Be Planted Now Will Do Well.
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Texting & driving fail put this car in my ditch.
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198. theshepherd
11:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
197. theshepherd
11:07 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Here ya go pony gal.

Kick back with a cold one and enjoy :)

namaste...


Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
196. Louisclocks
10:46 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
TD 5
Let the fun begin
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
195. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
3:00 AM JST August 2 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Ogasawara Water

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 23.4N 146.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 23.4N 142.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
3:00 AM JST August 2 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (980 hPa) located at 31.7N 127.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 34.5N 120.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
48 HRS: 37.4N 116.8E - Tropical Depression Overland northern China

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON SAOLA (1209)
3:00 AM JST August 2 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Saola (970 hPa) located at 24.2N 122.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.7N 121.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 30.6N 116.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
194. RobDaHood
7:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Hot but breezy today.
Looks like a little shower blowing up and heading my way though.

Done with plants and such until things cool down. What doesn't wilt from the sun gets drowned when it rains. Almost had a couple nice tomatoes last week, but just as they were getting ripe, along came 5 inches of rain in one day. They split open.

Ah, well...trying to stay in the shade anyway.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31982
193. Louisclocks
7:05 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Here it is almost 3pm on Aug. first.
Im sure Skye likes to watch some of us suffer, and watch her blog count hits go up as some of us cheak in every few minutes in order to be "FIRST" !!!
But noooooooooo I have to log in with this old dying computer which can't handle all the live info on this blog to begine with (locks up sometimes); and cross my fingers that the stars will shine apon me with the glories to be.
Peace
The weather is nice in SWFL
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
192. Skyepony
2:09 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Bogon~ WPAC has been an amazing show of moisture the last few days. Have to wonder if the MJO isn't strengthening. Looks like a rare double landfall is probable.

Guy~ I hear ya. Hope this wave is moist. Looks like I only got a trace yesterday. Seemed like more when I was in it..& I didn't water the garden. Did top off near 1/2 the back garden with compost & planted red & green okra, watermelon, purple eyed peas & 2 sweet pumpkins. Gonna plant carrots today.

Seer~ This is just gonna get more interesting..I can't believe how close the models take these too.

Hades~ Thanks for keeping the updates coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
191. Skyepony
1:54 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Morning all. 96W & 98W are gone. 99W is new.

99L struggles on. The disruptive swirl in the front 1/2 of it is about to get tore up on South America. It soon may have a chance to pull together before it hits that area of higher shear where the TUTT is. The little swirl off Africa is coming undone. Another wave is about to step off.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
190. seer2012
1:53 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
I noticed this morning that the outflow band of Saola was affecting the feeder band of Damrey.Apparently shearing the adjacent storm.Interesting,never saw that happen.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
189. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:15 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 30.8N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 34.9N 121.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
48 HRS: 37.7N 119.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea
72 HRS: 41.0N 122.0E - Tropical Depression Overland northeastern District of China

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Saola (960 hPa) located at 23.9N 122.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.1N 121.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 29.1N 119.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
72 HRS: 31.0N 115.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
188. guygee
12:48 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Hi Skye - This hot'n'dry is getting me down. We've been in weak SW steering the past few days which should be very productive during our rainy season, yet could only squeeze out 0.35" the day before and 0.04" yesterday out here on the coast. With July gone the sea-breeze rain machine begins to weaken and we will have to bank on the tropics to relieve the deficit. Hope this next wave drenches us.
Cheers!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
187. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:56 AM GMT on August 01, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
15:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 30.4N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 34.0N 122.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
48 HRS: 37.7N 119.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea
72 HRS: 41.0N 122.0E - Tropical Depression Overland northeastern District of China

Additional Information
======================

Damrey will move west northwest for the next 24 hours then move gradually to north northeast

Damrey will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate

Damrey will recurve within 60 hours.

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SAOLA (1209)
15:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Saola (960 hPa) located at 23.4N 123.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 25.5N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Yonaguni Island
48 HRS: 28.6N 120.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
72 HRS: 30.8N 116.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China

Additional Information
========================

Typhoon Saola will loop for the next 24 hours then move northwestward before accelerating

Final initial Dvorak number will be 5.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
186. Skyepony
2:01 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
SAOLA is strengthening rapidly..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
185. Bogon
1:34 AM GMT on August 01, 2012
Man, the west Pacific is all lit up over about sixty degrees of longitude. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it.

Looks like some Fujiwara action going on in the vicinity of Luzon and Taiwan. I don't envy the folks over there.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3694
184. Skyepony
7:59 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


yup the near collision forecast was a weird prediction


Some maybe hinting SAOLA is going to absorb DAMREY.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
183. Skyepony
7:55 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting seer2012:
Take a look at the latest meteostat 9 picture.Just of the coast of Africa is a cloud pattern that looks like circulation already going on.It appears to be a closed loop.


It looks tighter than this morning even..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
182. Skyepony
7:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting 1759:
this is a very informative and profesional apperaring blog I especialy like the when to plant in your area.


It's kind of morphed into a reference blog for me. Where I can glance at a bunch at once, including the gardening. Much of the graphics you can click on to open in another window. There is a few I need to fix. It's a little East Central FL bias though I follow the tropics globally.

Suspect for the SE it's going to be a busy fall for the backyard gardeners with the price of food. I've been stealing cloudy moments in mine the last week or so getting ready. Today is a good planting day for above grounds. I'm banking on a long hot fall. Putting in another round of okra & watermelon in the open pots. I'll find a more shade spot for some 60 day carrots, then plant my fall fare in a few weeks in flats & such. Come fall I'll replace the rest of the summer garden with those as the okra, watermelon & such die out.

Passionfruit has overrun a solid 3rd of one of my gardens at the moment. Garden really got out of hand this summer. Still feeding us, but you want to take a big knife when you go in there...

What are you growing & where?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
181. seer2012
7:02 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Take a look at the latest meteostat 9 picture.Just of the coast of Africa is a cloud pattern that looks like circulation already going on.It appears to be a closed loop.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Watch that blob over Alabama..that may blow up coming off GA & run up the east coast. Leeward Islands should be ready for season as well. CMC doom.

Hades~ I should put Damrey's models up. A few days ago they weren't making much sense with them landing in the same spot about the same time.


yup the near collision forecast was a weird prediction
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
179. Skyepony
6:46 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Kelvin Wave is blobbing everything up. Even getting a train of blobs going from the SE to Africa. Have to see if the wave will provide enough instability to kick any off.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
178. 1759
6:28 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
this is a very informative and profesional apperaring blog I especialy like the when to plant in your area.
Member Since: July 26, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 23
177. Skyepony
2:57 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
99L Hit the board with something other than too weak this morning..

31/1145 UTC 9.2N 40.6W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic

ASCAT missed. OSCAT might be having problems.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
176. Skyepony
1:53 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting seer2012:
I am a novice somewhat in storm developement processes.What I am curious about is why the weather over the islands hasn't spun up yet.There appears to be outflow taking place but no surface rotation as of yet.


Shear is still a bit high. The winds are different levels are moving at different speeds. Being a tropical wave & weak, we could check the mid-level shear since upper isn't as much a factor but even that is still high, though it's come down a bit since yesterday. The other factor for this wave has been dust. It's about shook it out, before now it kept the wave in general pretty dry.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
175. Skyepony
1:45 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Watch that blob over Alabama..that may blow up coming off GA & run up the east coast. Leeward Islands should be ready for season as well. CMC doom.

Hades~ I should put Damrey's models up. A few days ago they weren't making much sense with them landing in the same spot about the same time.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
174. seer2012
1:37 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
I am a novice somewhat in storm developement processes.What I am curious about is why the weather over the islands hasn't spun up yet.There appears to be outflow taking place but no surface rotation as of yet.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
173. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 28.9N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.7N 129.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest city of Makurazaki
48 HRS: 33.3N 124.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 38.0N 120.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (970 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 23.2N 123.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 25.4N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.2N 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Overland China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
172. Skyepony
4:35 AM GMT on July 31, 2012
Average model error (in nm) from the first run on 99L is in.. Out of the box GFDL (6) & HWRF (8) takes the lead.. GFS is best of the rest with 46, AVNO, NGP & CMC are even further off.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
171. Skyepony
11:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Bunch of fires started by lighting in Volusia. Lighting got a communication center too.

Ya'll stay safe out there..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
170. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:49 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
3:00 AM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (980 hPa) located at 20.9N 124.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 22.8N 123.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 24.6N 122.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Ishigaki Island
72 HRS: 26.8N 121.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
3:00 AM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 27.7N 142.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.1N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South of Japan
48 HRS: 32.1N 128.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Fukue Island
72 HRS: 34.5N 122.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
169. Skyepony
5:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Fresh partial OSCAT of 99L ~9N 37W.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
168. Skyepony
5:02 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
That wave approaching PR now should give them some more rain tomorrow, Hispaniola on Wednesday..should get even more. Breaks up a bit on Cuba. Then heavier rains for the Bahamas (thurs into Fri) & increased chance of rain for FL (Fri & sat).

This wave looks more moist than expected a few days ago. Still choking a bit on dust but probably more rain than originally expected.



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
167. Skyepony
4:49 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
Tail of the Carolina blob firing up a line of showers across North & Central Florida today. Click pic for animation.



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
166. Skyepony
1:58 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
In the Atlantic basin~ 99L looks about the same as lastnight. Some models spin this up more in a day or two. One to watch. Decent blob at the leeward islands. Disorganized blob off the Carolinias.

97W has been consumed by SAOLA, who can hardly fit in a floater.. Best of luck to all those in the way of that. Having a hard time strengthening due to size, should make up for it in rain, surge & waves.

Saola



Hades~ Thanks for the warnings..

Shep~ Glad to see you up & excited:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
165. theshepherd
12:18 PM GMT on July 30, 2012


WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10084
164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
"GENER" has intensified into a typhoon as it continues to threaten Extreme northern Luzon

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Gener (Saola) located at 20.3°N 124.7°E or 260 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3
------------------

Luzon Region
------------

1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
------------

1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Islands
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Kalinga
3 .Apayao

Additional Information
=========================

Typhoon "GENER" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #3 and #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Typhoon "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
163. Skyepony
6:28 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
162. Skyepony
6:23 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
99L & 98W are new. 99L is just off Africa. OSCAT got a partial.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
161. Skyepony
2:08 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
97W ended up spinning up atleast in the midlevels, a tight little vortex spawned by the Manila Bay, easily visible on radar. Short lived by land that it went over, drawn by SAOLA.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
160. Skyepony
4:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
I'm kinda surprised to see the moisture drawn to SAOLA being tagged as 97W. SAOLA is fixing to devour this blob.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
159. Skyepony
3:55 PM GMT on July 29, 2012
Morning all..90C 96W & 97W are new. Added the models for SAOLA up top. 95W is now DAMREY. As Hades has posted..pretty pressing concern for those in the area. It has just drawn a mad amount of moisture to it over night & has linked up with 95W, making intensity forecast more difficult. Not only is there land obstacles, it may take a little more time to deepen with more flooding expected. If it gathers & strengthens, I could see it getting stronger than model consensus with the added moisture/energy.



Also added a photo I took the other night. Old friend chaos showed up with an epic texting fail in my canal out front during my divine rib dinner. Details are in the comments. Wanted to bring it here. The pic got a VIP. That thread is taking on a life of it's own. Emotions behind this issue run higher than I expected.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:16 PM GMT on July 29, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 18.2N 124.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 19.9N 123.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.6N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.4N 122.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.8N 145.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.7N 143.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 28.6N 138.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 30.6N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:20 AM GMT on July 29, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
15:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 17.4N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 19.2N 123.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel
48 HRS: 21.2N 123.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 23.2N 122.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - South of Okinawa

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
15:00 PM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.9N 145.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.2N 144.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 27.6N 140.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
72 HRS: 29.3N 134.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:49 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM GENER (SAOLA)
11:00 AM PhST July 29 2012
================================

Tropical Storm "GENER" has slowed down slightly as it continues to threaten extreme Northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 17.2°N 125.3°E or 310 km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
------------

1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Island
3. Babuyan Group of Island

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Batanes Group of Island

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
155. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:27 AM GMT on July 29, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
9:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (985 hPa) located at 17.0N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 18.8N 124.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.2N 123.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.6N 122.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
9:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.8N 146.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.5N 144.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
45 HRS: 27.5N 141.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
69 HRS: 28.8N 136.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:20 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
6:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Saola (990 hPa) located at 16.6N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 18.5N 123.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 19.4N 122.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Bashi Channel
69 HRS: 20.6N 122.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Bashi Channel


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
6:00 AM JST July 29 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (1000 hPa) located at 25.8N 146.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.5N 144.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
45 HRS: 27.5N 141.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
69 HRS: 28.9N 136.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
153. Skyepony
1:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
93W is now 10W SAOLA..


I was pretty disappointed no Maiden at the opening lastnight being about the most global British band out there. Loved Pink Floyd's Eclipse for the fireworks after the torch lighting.



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:46 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 28 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (1004 hPa) located at 25.7N 147.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.8N 145.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 27.7N 142.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
72 HRS: 28.8N 137.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
151. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on July 28, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM GENER (SAOLA)
5:00 PM PhST July 28 2012
================================

"GENER" intensified rapidly into a tropical storm while moving in a north northwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 15.4°N 126.3°E or 250 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan Grp of Isl
4. Babuyan Grp of Isl
5. Batanes Grp of Isl

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
150. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:38 AM GMT on July 28, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENER (SAOLA)
11:00 AM PhST July 28 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Gener (Saola) located at 14.5°N 126.9°E or 250 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression “Gener” is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Depression “Gener” and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
149. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:45 AM GMT on July 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
9:00 AM JST July 28 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Saola (1000 hPa) located at 14.5N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 17.3N 125.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
24 HRS: 18.6N 124.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
24 HRS: 19.6N 123.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
9:00 AM JST July 28 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Ogasawara Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 26.3N 146.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.2N 145.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
148. Skyepony
7:41 PM GMT on July 27, 2012
Wave swirl has come undone a bit since lastnight...
OSCAT


Bogon~ I like that one alot too. Thanks for posting it. MJO sites shuffled around alot in the last year. I don't think I could find it quick at the moment.

I have a hard time picking a favorite. They all have ways of picking out different things. Here's one of my favs.. Something about graphing the world & mjo strength like that.



Easy way to decipher the zone it's in for comparing to climo for where tropical storms might form that month with MJO in that place. We are just about pare for zone 5 month of July.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 75.2 °F
Dew Point: 73.6 °F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 3:29 AM EDT on August 31, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 68.9 °F
Dew Point: 65.8 °F
Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 3:29 AM EDT on August 31, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 77.0 °F
Dew Point: 75.0 °F
Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:42 PM EDT on August 22, 2014

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