Tropics

By: Skyepony , 1:33 PM GMT on May 01, 2012

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Atlantic
02L BERYL



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96W

04W


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Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.
Ah May... the planting madness is done..sure in FL there is atleast a few things to be planted this month. A good time to assess how much room will be available when the squash, cucs & garlic are gone, to plant some replacements. Southern Peas are black eye, pink eye & cow pea varieties. They fix Nitrogen in the soil, a great summer cover crop that follows heavy feeders like squash wonderfully. They love heat & can dry on the dead bush to be picked after you return from summer vacation.

It's a good thing the planting has let up as the spring & summer garden begin to take over. Feeding, watering, staking/caging & harvesting is the main garden chores for the month with most likely a little bit of weeding.

North FL Lima beans, eggplant, okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

Central FL ..Plant~ okra, southern peas, sweet potatoes, Gourds & broomgrass.

South FL sweet potatoes, southern peas, Gourds & Broomgrass.


30th-31st Excellent Time For Planting Corn, Beans, Peppers, And Other Aboveground Crops. Favorable For Sowing Hay, Fodder Crops, And Grains. Good For Planting Flowers.
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Local Weather~
Chance of rain through Sunday.


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Lacrosse, KS Tornado (weatherfanatic2010)
This was the tornado that went just north of Lacrosse, KS around 10pm CDT on 5-25-12. This photo was taken a little after 9pm.
Lacrosse, KS Tornado
Base of the Anvil over Latham, NY (walcek)
WOW! I just made it in time before torrential downpour. This is a stitch of SIX (6) vertically-oriented pics of the western sky as a thunderhead approached suburban Albany, NY this evening. Tornado warnings were issued for several areas of Upstate NY during the day
Base of the Anvil over Latham, NY

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Hey Skye! I was outside putting in some new trees this morning thinking of rain but no destructive winds. Judging by the visible sat loop I just viewed, Beryl is learning to do the tropical thing. There is definitely an upper level anticyclone trying to form above the storm now. Maybe she will cross very close to 30N by 80W?

Just a small thing in light of larger events today, but while digging I disturbed my "mama snake" just as she was laying her eggs, the same snake whose breeding picture I posted on an earlier blog of yours. Sad to say I might have injured her, but she slithered away in a panic. The eggs are brand new. I feel very bad, and I guess I am going to have to be the "snake daddy" now. I will do my best to incubate the eggs until they hatch.

I'll post pictures if there is a happy ending.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
You're up late!

Checking status on the storm...going back to bed now.
'Nite Skye!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 32272
OFCL is in the lead. It's down to 26.1 nm average error for 24hr.

Average error in nm
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr
CMCI 0 63.5 88.3 - -
DRCL 0 44.4 44.3 - -
DSHP 5.4 93.1 174.7 284.2 456.8
EGRR 7.9 30.5 - - -
GFD2 0 99.1 - - -
GFDI 0 69.0 - - -
GFDL 9.8 86.3 181.5 - -
GFDN 10.6 - - - -
GFDT 14.8 72.5 121.3 86.6 127.1
GFT2 0 87.4 66.4 138.3 -
GFTI 9.2 91.7 112.1 157.6 -
GHM2 0 99.1 - - -
GHMI 0 69.0 - - -
HWF2 0 68.1 121.6 187.9 -
HWFI 9.2 100.1 212.7 198.7 -
HWRF 4.9 55.5 119.4 178.8 174.6
LBAR 5.4 112.3 165.1 336.1 623.0
LGEM 5.4 93.1 174.7 284.2 456.8
MRCL 0 44.4 44.3 - -
MRFO 25.7 81.2 75.0 - -
NAM 45.0 102.7 253.6 514.3 -
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 21:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:41:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°20'N 76°31'W (31.3333N 76.5167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 214 miles (344 km) to the SE (140°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 322° at 37kts (From the NW at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 428m (1,404ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 268m (879ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Guy~ She took a beating today. I saw flood warning on that storm over NJ & such. Is different but sort of the same we've seen lately just amplified.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Center looks 31.367N 76.500W 999.1mb They got as low as 459'. A few TS winds on the way out SFMR 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph), flight level (~1200') 48 knots (From the ESE at ~ 55.2 mph)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Extrapolated 999.6mb SFMR 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph) Still not center.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Poor bizarro Beryl...I do not even see a hint of an upper anticyclone to provide outflow over her. Really does not look any more tropical than this morning, although bigger and tighter.

Not exactly "Clash of the Titans" but it looks like a moderate size MCS is forming coming down over the high in the vicinity of NJ, Del and Md...seems poised to drop on top of Beryl overnight. A kicker? Should be an interesting interaction, I cannot think of a past similar situation to compare.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Awesome TRMM pass on Beryl..Click pic for very large animation..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Recon AF307 is on the way to Beryl! She's starting to fire some convection, getting closer to the warmer waters near the Gulf Stream. Dvorak numbers look weak. She took a beating.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Finn,

Hi! Yes, it is a beautiful pic! : )
Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
What a beautiful nigh sat pic! WOW
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
{{{Wet Doggie}}}}
Good to see you!
Nothing like a storm to bring us all out of hiding! hahaha
Quoting aquak9:
A gorgeous, still morning at LandZero. Momma duck has three little fuzzball babies, the day is perfect, albeit a tad smokey.

Beryl in IR looks like a sloppy deviled egg. I've seen my yard sprinkler put out better swirls.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
Hi Skye,

Looks like we are in for a busy season! Wow, two names and H Season has not officially arrived!

Happy Memorial Day to you & Yours!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
What a beautiful nigh sat pic! WOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's the OSCAT I fell out before lastnight..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Should be good duck weather on the way.

My only doubt comes from the model verification. They are having a hard time hitting the broad side of a state.. with 24hr error 100+nm.. Single run error is better but not much.

I'm leaning south if the models end up that far off.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
A gorgeous, still morning at LandZero. Momma duck has three little fuzzball babies, the day is perfect, albeit a tad smokey.

Beryl in IR looks like a sloppy deviled egg. I've seen my yard sprinkler put out better swirls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning Guygee..Good Morning everyone.. Yeah Beryl looks even less tropical than lastnight. I'm favoring landfall & a loop through the drought stricken NFL/GA border area. These things seem attracted to drought. Chances are we should see some rain here from it. But not as much as NFL where people may want to check drains, pool levels & such. There has been plenty of consistency on heavy rain..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Good morning Skye! Beryl, hey! Doesn't look very tropical, for now at least. I like the big wrap-around moisture pattern coming at us though. Hope the farther south and farther west scenarios pan out. Need the rain!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
They issued them right away here. Looked all happy to stress NFL.. assuring vacation down here was all good. Mentioned something about NHC had a cone wider than the thin line going for Jacksonville on the map they fronted. Shouldn't be too bad. Storm keeps getting stronger than models expected but overall not the best of conditions. Bring in the loose stuff. Make sure you have water. Maybe top off the gas tank.

Finn~ Crazy season so far. For months there have been little swirls occasionally off FL. Wonder how long the pattern will persist.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Took the local mets 57 minutes to broadcast the TS warning, after NHC issued it.
No preps. I gotta work. Life goes on.
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Whaaaaaaaat??? It isn't even June yet, what's going on???

Aqua and Rain, good luck with your preps! :(
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BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Fresh ASCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Fresh OSCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
ASCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Lastnight's OSCAT pass after I fell out. Pulling together..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
The other better preforming models are gunning for the FL/GA border.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
00Z GMAO GEOS-5 still goes over KSC to NOLA.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Fresh ASCAT 94L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Windsat of 94L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
AEMI & AVNI initialized a little better but none really have a handle on 94L yet.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
BUD
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
New coastal ASCAT product. Experimental..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
AF300 took an untask trip to the usual spot to dropsonde in the gulf but looks to have landed outside Tampa.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
NASA/GMAO GEOS-5 precip & SLP..KSC/NOLA path.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Briar~ Yeah commercial better than nothing for launches. Moon & deep space is pretty exciting.

Hope your garden does better. The crazy weather has had me trying a few things out of season & planting less of more different types of plants.

All my years here..great papaya years seem like landfall years, atleast strong enough to blow the tree down. Mine here was a County Fair 1st place winter of all fruit trees. It's grown like mad since.

Guy~ I hope we get several days of atleast a shower. Hard to say exactly where it's coming back for yet.

Finn~ Glad you're back. Freeze dried is awesome. I live on it when I camp light. Congrats on the mangoes. Those veggies hate to be left on vacation.

All hail crab! Thanks for the rain:)

& Hades for the updates:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Hey everyone~ did see a quick shower in Suntree a little bit ago. Desperately need it here & so much so close.

94L swirling across SFL today..total storm accumulation.. Not too heavy so far with most the rain on the east side off the coast.




FSU model page has been fickle the last many days. GEM.. takes it NE of us a bit, make a Low of it & heads it back into GA. ECMWF..Loops back on us. GEOS-5 Still pretty wet.. I like it's portrait of the multiple vorticity.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Well, I have to admit the weather discussion here is over my head, but I did want to come by and say Hi. With SpaceX, at least your Space Coast days aren't over and you'll have something interesting to watch.

I do get Guygee's irrigation water woes and Hurricanecrab's 14 inches of rain is a definite wow! LakeWorthFinn has got some gardening frustration I can relate to -- whole different climate, but I just came off of 3 frustrating years of garden failure due to uncooperative weather, too. I feel for you!
Member Since: June 21, 2004 Posts: 82 Comments: 4101
Interesting cyclonic circulation just offshore tip of SW Florida apparent in the visible satellite loop this morning, perhaps drifting NW attm.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Hi everybody! {{{crabster}}}, what a treat to see your post :) Wow, that's a lot of water! Yes, too soon - hope you'll be saved from major trouble and finish the porch.

I have my seasonal plans advancing well and every year I learn something new to improve my hurricane supplies. This year it's been freeze dried goods, had never heard of them before. I have already tasted fruit and berries and made cheese omelets. What an easy and a fabulous way to store delicious and nutritious foods! :)

My little 6-ft mango tree is full of fruit, all nicely tucked inside a net I got for my birthday months ago. Can't wait... My veggie garden died again :( - only herbs and strawberries survived. Third time's a charm, so next year I'll try again with skye's and wetdoggie's seeds to make it happen. Now mangoes, avocados and bananas will compensate for the veggie loss :)

Good to have WU again this coming season, thanks in advance for all you do!
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Heya Skye ;o)

I bring a couple of weather-weenie measurements:

1) 14 inches of rain on Cayman Brac since Sunday
2) gusting two hours ago to 39 mph.
3) pressure: 1007 and still falling (wth?)

Aside from that, I must confess that the gusting made me feel curiously unprepared -- which is an oddity. I think it was that the sound was so reminescent of the beginning overtures of Paloma.

I found myself sorting canned goods, and that's the sad truth. LOL!

Nooooooooooooo it's too SOON to be looking at model runs! I haven't finished rebuilding the porch :>D Soon come.

Wind generator survived and is merrily humming away. Good to know. I was told that gusting winds are worse for it than a higher sustained wind. We'll see. We have a backup wind genny, and we might just be tempted to test it's stated resistance parameters sometime this year, even though we can take it down it less than ten minutes.
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Skye you are ahead of the curve as usual, now from the local NWS in their afternoon AFD,

...SAT-TUE...12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK LOW WELL EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INITIALLY...THEN PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE DRIER WEST SIDE SAT...BUT MOISTURE MIGHT INCREASE FOR SUN-MON. ...

We've been stuck in this dry slot for days now and the soil around my place is getting really parched, and I am just about out of rainwater that I save for my most thirsty plants. Since my well is too salty looks like I'll have to drench with city water this weekend and I hate that because not only is it expensive but also because the chloramine that is used now is much more persistent than the chlorine treatment that was used previously, so the beneficial soil biota that is needed to break down nutrients and fix nitrogen from the atmosphere is disturbed or temporarily destroyed. I need to find a better way...whether it be solar distillation or reverse osmosis or more efficient rainwater collection, seems it all starts with a big storage tank for water. It will be DIY or $$$ for that...to be continued later...
Cheers!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Alberto is gone. They could get a floater on 94L..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
107. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
21:00 PM JST May 23 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (992 hPa) located at 16.7N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 19.2N 138.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.5N 139.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 23.5N 141.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD (EP022012)
8:00 AM PDT May 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "BUD" FINALLY STRENGTHENS

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bud (997 hPa) located at 13.4N 107.6W or 390 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 14.7N 108.1W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.8N 106.8W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.0N 106.5W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45618
For least 94L model error (nautical miles)~ HWRF(6) is in the lead, GFDL(8.3) applying pressure, SHIP, LBAR & GEM tied for third (30.7).
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
Here is the final highlights for how the models did on Tropical Storm Alberto.

Average Position Error for the entire storm.
(in nautical miles)


Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr
HWRF 7.1 46.7 90.0 132.0
EGRR 23.2 43.4 104.5 132.2
OFCL 0.7 47.3 93.5 147.5
TVCN 0 48.9 105.8 173.4
AP03 21.0 55.2 113.9 133.8
DRCL 0 54.2 112.8 143.9
DSHP 0 62.3 128.1 150.2
NGPS 36.1 63.9 132.1 154.1
CMC 38.0 66.3 133.4 181.2
GFDL 8.1 57.2 115.4 219.6


Wab~ I never did check it's status, it hadn't been working for at least the last few weeks. It came on for the last invest so I thought I would check.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38192
103. whitewabit (Mod)
I thought that WINSAT had died ???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31573

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 72.5 °F
Dew Point: 72.1 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: - from the North
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 12:58 AM EDT on September 21, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 60.4 °F
Dew Point: 55.6 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:58 AM EDT on September 21, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 58.0 °F
Dew Point: 56.0 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:12 AM EDT on September 21, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations