Skyepony's WunderBlog

EC Florida Locals NOAA wants comments...
Posted by: Skyepony, 4:25 AM GMT on October 02, 2006 +1
For the locals who have intrests in the area NOAA wants comments on the tropical cyclone hazards graphics before November 15th. Here's more on the product. Make comments for Wind Risk Graphic here & comments on the Threat graphics here. I was just gonna post the following but they go indepth a little. Shocked at the question ~ is it appropriate for us to be supplying these graphics.

I thought these graphics were great during Wilma & Ernesto. They couldn't be simpler to read, they're colorful & hot link easily where I could further diseminate the info in my blog. I think all the local NWS in hurricane prone areas should have them.

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

NWS was having some internet site troubles...
Kinda fond of the new graphic for now, if you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
Keeping an eye out for rain...
12 hrs probibility (%) chance of rain...


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS






I'm back. Another great adventure, short of a total tent flooding. That blob in the gulf gave us several inches of rain Monday night when TWC had the area for a 1/4 inch that night. Lesson learned...don't spray an ageing tent with scotchgaurd. It seemed to remove all waterproofing.

Sifting though a bunch of pics from the trip. Uploading some new ones here from Pisgah Forest in NC & the Swannee River (enjoyed some Magnolia Fest).

Not only did I get to see Trey put on an awesome show in Asheville, I happen to run into to him outside the hotel:) Here's a clip from the show I was at, the song sand, Trey is just going off here. The video starts out a bit fuzzy & gets clearer. Very well could have been the dude next to me that shot this.

As the storms in the S. Hemisphere died away, the burner has been turned up on the Northern 1/2.

In the Alantic, invest 93L has crossed the Antillies & now in the Caribbean. Ramsdis has a good view of it. 25kts & 1009mb, according to navy~ It's up 5kts. The 12Zcmc is the only one developing it & over the Bahamas.


Other invests include one for the Central & west Pacific as well as one in the Indian Ocean.

There's CIMARON in the w. Pacific this one might bomb, 48 hrs ago it was named an TD now at 105kts, 938mb, aimed for land.


East Pacific has TD 18E, 1009mb, 25kts & is expected to move out to sea. It's convection has been blown away.

Most the models are calling for a cut off low from this last front, east of FL, maybe N Bahamas, in a few days. Also & the gfs has been hinting at this a few days now & a few others are jumping on board with a small intense looking storm for South FL or south of there or Keys or developing in very South GOM & moving toward SFL at the end of the 144hr run.

For the horse folk that frequent, how about the riot at the Tenneesse Walking Horse National Celebration? 150 people being held back by 50 police as they get their point across that the 6 of the 9 horses the federal inspectors failed for soaring be allowed to show in the final Campionship class or none will show. The stewards cancelled the class, rescedualed for Thanksgiving weekend & has now cancelled that too.


Categories: Tropics
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51. Skyepony 7:46 AM GMT on October 14, 2006    
I think I'm like a little over 5" short, Orlando around 12... Learn the rain dance:)
nite ya'll
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
52. Skyepony 7:48 AM GMT on October 14, 2006    
Hmm, GOM probibly gonna get blobish looking, last I saw AL was gonna get that...Think they're worse off then us on lack of rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
55. Skyepony 3:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2006    
Well ya'll my Hiatus has begun. Gonna live in some forest & dance at some festivals...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
56. code1 3:24 PM GMT on October 14, 2006    
Tried to catch you at Wab's Skye. Have much fun!! Missed you last night.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
57. OGal 3:25 PM GMT on October 14, 2006    
Skye, Shera needs to get that baby dancin again. We are at a 12" deficit. Am I right with an El Nino winter we will get more rain? I sure hope so.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19172
58. Skyepony 3:30 PM GMT on October 14, 2006    
I saw ya code:) & Thanks..

Your right Ogal, if it holds...Seems like that starts around late Nov. We all gotta start dancing for it.

Well really gone this time...Bye ya'll.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
59. seflagamma 3:31 PM GMT on October 14, 2006    
Skye, just saw where you are leaving us again. Sounds like a lot of fun! Have a good time, will look forward to your pictures!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
60. LowerCal 11:36 PM GMT on October 17, 2006    
Four days later and 90L is an Invest. Well, it still hasn't hit the east side of Hispanola, LOL!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8998
61. LowerCal 5:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2006    
Welcome back Skye! Sounds like the trip was mostly high points. Looking forward to your pics and watching and commenting too.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8998
62. LakeWorthFinn 5:53 PM GMT on October 23, 2006    
{{{{{Skye}}}}}, good to see you!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6963
63. LakeWorthFinn 5:54 PM GMT on October 23, 2006    
wow, just saw the pics, beauuuutiful!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6963
64. Patrap 11:01 PM GMT on October 23, 2006    
Live Video Feed New Orleans Port...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635
65. Skyepony 5:08 AM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Hey everyone, thanks for the kind thoughts & e-mails. Ya'll inspire me & teach me, it's good to be back. The forest though colorful was cold & rainy. Swannee was hot.

Been playing with the idea of putting the self updating local stuff in another blog & linking it back to this one. I need more room. What ya'll think?

The Atlantic is looking quiet. The S. Hemisphere has had 1 invest & now Xavier..wild looking storm.


Noticed while I was gone NOAA announced the ozone hole has never been bigger.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
68. LowerCal 5:23 AM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Divide the blog(s) by area of interest? Sounds like a great idea (to a nonlocal)!
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8998
71. Skyepony 6:36 AM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Sorry Randrewl, hadn't realized you were here demanding answers. We'll debate this hole tommarrow. Sleep tight my friend.

Thought you'd like that LowerCal, your probibly not the only one.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
72. carolinagal 1:22 PM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Just now looking at your new mountain photos. Truly beautiful!!
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 154 Comments: 6711
73. Skyepony 2:51 PM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Thanks gal:) I uploaded more than I normally would the caves cove series got buried. They were my favorites so here's a link to them.

Hope all well with your clan, thought of ya as I cris crossed SC.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
74. Skyepony 3:05 PM GMT on October 24, 2006    
Paul is at 990mb & 60kts, looks like a Mexico landfall is eminant.

Xavier is kickin 927mb, at 115kts, the track has shifted more south & away from some islands.

Also of intrest is the blob that was born through the night, part of a tropical wave, that is approaching the lesser Antillies this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
75. LowerCal 12:00 AM GMT on October 25, 2006    
I have to take back what I said a while ago about the LBAR being silly. The NHC Model Overview describes the known strengths and weaknesses.

On something related, the Colorado State model runs usually include the LBAR in the EPac Early http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/eastpac/early1.png (but not in the last run for some reason). I can now use the URL as a bookmark but sometimes I will get the Access forbidden page when clicking the link in a blog if I haven't visited colostate.edu for a half hour or so. (Just an FYI re. posting those model graphics as others may experience the same restriction.)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8998
79. Skyepony 8:45 PM GMT on October 25, 2006    
Yeah the LBARS, I might call a particuliar run of it silly (as I may any other model), but all an all the idea of adding a little climatoligy to a model isn't a bad idea. I think it did worse last year since the year was so different to previous years.

Randrewl~ a model of the doldrums created in a year when everything was so slow(well not really but compared to last), kind of made me chuckle. Neat though how the lack of surface wind has really been tied to SST, to the extent of coral damage. I look for new products when things get boring.

Fires, well pulled a link from one of my old fire blogs...map of fires in FL. Less than a dozen in EC FL...none in Brevard:) NE FL is really beginning to light up again. Been lovin these temps, need rain.

Enjoyed the photos...was that pelican in the VAB? lol... & Halloween is one of my favorite holidays~ feel free to decorate the place.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
80. stormydee 3:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2006    
Hey Skye - Love the pics! Looks like you had fun! :-)
Have a great day!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
81. OGal 3:50 PM GMT on October 26, 2006    
Hey Skye, just got back from NC. We were in Hendersonville visiting my MIL. Took a day to go up through Pisgah on to the Parkway. About a thousand other people did the same thing. The colors were so vibrant. Took pictures will try to post them on my blog soon. Two shows a year in those ole mountains; one in
Spring and one in the Fall. Hendersonville was a zoo! I told Bug everyone from Charleston was up in the mountains. We had to stay in Arden, no room in Hendersonville. We found the best Mexican restaurant there. Too much food on the plate to eat but oh sooo good.


Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19172
82. LowerCal 7:16 PM GMT on October 26, 2006    
Now it's 18E.NONAME. (Soon to be 18E.ROSA.)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8998
83. Raysfan70 9:54 AM GMT on October 27, 2006    
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Have a Fantastic Friday. :-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57352
86. Skyepony 3:34 PM GMT on October 27, 2006    
Actually it's a quick synopisis of the write up in this months Equus magizine. It's worth picking up. They were the only ones I saw with the nitty details, though there is also several articles on Google. Here's one. Purhaps this afternoon I can scan in the Equus article.

Crazy show~ they had a horse die of rabies there & they are now trying to spread the word to possible exposures. Though Horse to horse is a bit unlikely.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
87. Fshhead 8:39 PM GMT on October 27, 2006    
Hey Skye, thanx for the post in my blog...
Now that the season "seems" to be over with, can you put your oil blog back on here?? PLEASE???
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
89. code1 12:26 PM GMT on October 28, 2006    
Skye, caught up on your pics the other day. Nice! Glad you had a good time. Just read earlier about the Championship. Not surprising, I'm sad to say. Been a long time coming. Soreing a bit is one thing, quicking another totally! I agree, someone needs to take charge. Is sad when you know which DPQ's are real, and which one's are on "the take". Hoping the RHBAA took notice. Lots of good horses out there that never won championships, that can "walk" rings around those hurt to do so. sheesh Let's go back to au natural! Have a great day.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
90. OGal 12:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2006    
Mornin Skye, hope you got some of our wonderful rain. We got a little over and inch counting this mornings brief shower. Hope you have a wonderful Saturday!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19172
91. Skyepony 2:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2006    
Morning all exahstion got the best of me lastnight.

That cut off low forecasted to form east of FL~ the gfs has been mentioning that for days, as have I (well on & off). The way it looks coming through the Caribbean looks like an 85% cut off low happening to me. I'll have to see what our local guys have said about this.

Fshhead~ I get through this next month of tropical weather watching:) Well really, I don't mind running the products to get off oil in any of my blogs. If you see them, please post 'em here. I'll take 'em to the master list & post the best with what what ever blog I get into after cane season. I really want to do a blog on the NOAA's tropical online class this winter (if I can get wabit to be the boy behind me in class that distracts me into a solid C...well atleast keep it fun) & I got some other ideas, but that get off oil topic doesn't take up much room & I consider it a good one to run along with other things. It will be interesting to see the results of Britian's next attempt at getting off oil. I imagine with each attempt the countries should learn a few lessons to get a step closer.

code~ yeah, it's been a long time coming, though the riot suprised me...One of the senators (FRist) is trying to get the group that called for the regulations to better define, what's been sored, & present this to the USDA.

I got .40" lastnight, wind damage to some green peppers, caged them & hope for the best.

off to a moving party...
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