Tropics

By: Skyepony , 3:23 AM GMT on December 01, 2011

Share this Blog
7
+

Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
27W


26W


Indian Ocean
91A

Southern Hemisphere
90S



A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.

December is busy gardening in FL..Leafy harvest coming in..Planting opportunities galore. NFL is mostly cruising on cool weather foods. CFL is heavily planting winter fare. SFL is planting winter & some summer things. Maybe a good year for corn.. Happy planting & don't forget some fluffy mulch like raked up leaves or old hay to mulch & protect from occasional cold.

North FL beets, Broccoli, cabbage, Carrots, kale, Kohlrabi, Mustard, onions, parsley, radish.

Central FL beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, parsley, english peas, radish.

South FL all beans, corn, cucumber, eggplant, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, collards, kale, kohlrabi, lettuce, mustard, onions, parsley, all peas, radish, spinach & turnips.

December 2011
13th-17th A Most Barren Period. Kill Plant Pests And Do General Farm Work.
```````````````````````````````````
Local Weather~

Occasional showers continue. Hazardous boating this week.




NHC Tropical Discussion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger

ECFL TDWR High Definition Radar

Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current....Flood.......Lightning.....Severe Hail...Severe Winds....Tornados........cold............Fire




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook



Watching for rain & minimum temps..
click maps to go interactive









click maps to make bigger & animate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Click to make maps bigger.

850mb Relitive Vorticity..................300-850mb Steering



HAZARDS


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~

Visitor Map........
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~





First Snow on the Farm (CecileWNC)
First Snow on the Farm
Wintergreen (trigirl)
Today was a winter wonderland here in the Smoky Mountains! We had light snow flurries at 2000 feet and then drove up past 3500 to see the accumulating snow in the higher elevations. Brrrrrrr!!!
Wintergreen

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 54 - 4

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

54. plapman
1:07 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Good morning Sky
I converted an old shop vac into a blower this year and used it to blow fluffy snow from the Queen's car. It won't be long till I can test it out as a leafd blower.
Enjoy your day.
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 2464 Comments: 7339
53. Skyepony
3:12 PM GMT on December 14, 2011
Got it all updated.. 27W (TD25), 91A & 90S are up..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
52. Skyepony
5:10 AM GMT on December 14, 2011
Hey everyone~ Kinda afraid we may have tested positive for something mosquito borne around here. There is two spraying zones split by Aurora Rd. Both got aerial sprayed with the helicopter with the crop duster rig. Not even 1/2 hr later the trucks were going by spraying. Unusual to have both on the same night. The county site had the North 1/2 of one section & the south half of another..almost never seen that..Centers it on Aurora..truck made a few laps even.

Thanks for posting ya'll.. been busy. Some one gave me a bag of tomatoes out their nieghbor's garden today. Mine are coming, just not ripe yet.

Aqua~ Such a better year for the winter fare this year.. I hope it doesn't freeze this year. We are so over due.

Wab~ I bet you'd love to warm your bones here.. Was in the sun, it was so warm.

Louis~ Thanks for the tunes!

Hades~ Thanks so much for keeping me updated. Tomorrow is an easier day..

Night ya'll..70ș
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
51. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:16 PM GMT on December 13, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
21:00 PM JST December 13 2011
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 6.2N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.8N 135.0E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
50. Louisclocks
12:47 AM GMT on December 13, 2011
Beautiful December weather.
Lennon vibes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4_ghOG9JQM&featur e=related
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
49. whitewabit (Mod)
10:54 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Hi Skye .. warmed up here today into the mid 40's...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
48. whitewabit (Mod)
10:53 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Would Love to have a fresh tomato ...

be sure to save some seeds Aqua !!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31214
47. aquak9
5:37 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Leftover tomatoes from spring, from a local nursery, tall, yellow, spindly, near death. I was gonna buy'm out of sympathy, but they gave'm to me, instead. Everyone thought they would die...except me...

and now they have stems as fat as big cigars, dark green and loaded with blooms. Dare I hope? dare I? They are as healthy as any tomato plants ever grown in this yard.

Raab is yummy, lettuce is crunchy, carrots are bushy and fresh cilantro makes one dance.

Happy rainy monday.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
46. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
the number 24 is how many systems from the JMA that they have had advisories from what I seen.

The JTWC has upgraded two system that the JMA has not monitored as having 30 knots or the potential of becoming a tropical storm.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
45. Skyepony
2:34 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
94W is now 26W..

Hades~ Thanks, NAVY was off there again..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
44. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
26W from JTWC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
43. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on December 12, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
21:00 PM JST December 12 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.1N 110.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
42. Skyepony
6:35 AM GMT on December 12, 2011
01S 02S are gone 95W is new.

94W TRMM~ not the best pass every.. click for mini movie


Hades~ 24W died?


Guy~ We are so over due for a frost free winter. Trees look crazy.. Tangerine is nearly completely done..so early & the pines, oaks & some others..I'm amazed at the seed load. The way the ice sheet load has got off balance the last few weeks with Hudson, around Greenland & such not refreezing as fast as around Alaska..1/2 expecting the NAO to turn Neg on us at some point.

Agreed, you should have a canning mentor or something.. & safety glasses:)



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
41. guygee
2:21 AM GMT on December 11, 2011
Hey Skye - Hope things are going well...today's afternoon AFD pretty much sums it up it for the last several weeks with only a couple of breaks:

LONGER WAVE NOAM PATTERN OF A POSITIVE AO COUPLED WITH A NEGATIVE PNA WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF FL AS POLAR INTRUSIONS GET SHUNTED EASTWARD BEFORE THEY MAKE A DEEP SOUTHWARD PENETRATION.

After these last two winters hope we stay locked in!

My oldest son brought home a bushel of hot peppers a couple of months ago, cut'em up, filled the mason jars with olive oil and canned them all using just a hot water bath (without bothering to ask me any advice). Well, he forgot the headroom, so most of the caps couldn't seal down...what a waste. Better to ask then learn the hard way.

Stay Well, and Holiday Cheers!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
40. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2011
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
18:00 PM JST December 10 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.6N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 11.2N 114.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
39. Skyepony
4:28 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Shore~ Thanks! That was beautiful. & we can't forget Wabit..he helped me learn how. Canning is such a delicious, healthy savings. Recently a friend traded me sea grape jelly she made from the sea grapes in her yard (they live beachside)..It was amazing.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
38. shoreacres
3:49 AM GMT on December 10, 2011
Skye ~ This just has to make you smile. It got dropped into my comment section today over at wordpress and I thought of you & BriarCraft especially - also Aqua. Well, and spathy. LOL
Enjoy!

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
37. Skyepony
2:58 PM GMT on December 09, 2011
I updated lastnight but never commented..94W is new. NOAA has a floater on it this morning I'll get up.

Yesterday the low was 44 the high 70, winds to 10mph. Cloud deck moved in 2nd half of the day, by night it was racing in from the south with the moon peaking out here & there.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
36. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:56 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 17.3S 96.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM in northeast quadrant
30 NM in northwest quadrant
30 NM in southeast quadrant
20 NM in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM in northeast quadrant
80 NM in northwest quadrant
80 NM in southeast quadrant
50 NM in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.1S 99.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.5S 101.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.1S 104.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 23.5S 105.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and visible satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Alenga appeared to peak near 0300 UTC with a well defined eye with DVORAK DT of 5.0. In the last 3 hours the infa-red eye has dissipated and embedded centre pattern [LG] gives a DVORAK DT of 4.5, consistent with MET. CI held higher at 5.0. Max winds of 80 knots consistent with SATCON although ADT has suggest higher intensities.

The west northwesterly shear has increased above 10 knots and is likely to further increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west. Consequently Alenga should continue to weaken assisted by cooler SST's and a possibly dryer airmass.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient with a high pressure system further south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
35. Skyepony
6:11 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Far West Pacific has alot of moisture.

High was 85, low was 56. Wind to 23mph with 0.01" rain. Enlightening sunrise.

Hades~ Pretty eye on Alenga when the sun came up on her.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
34. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:18 AM GMT on December 08, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 AM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 16.2S 94.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 19 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 97.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.3S 99.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 21.0S 102.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 22.2S 102.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. DT has averaged 5.0 over the last 3 images based on an EIR pattern. MET is consistently 4.0 [based on D trend] and PAT 4.5. FT and CI set to 4.5. This is generally consistent with ADT though ADT has an increasing trend towards 5.0 in recent images. No AMSU/SATCON available since 1400 Z. No recent ascat pass. Vmax is set at 70 knots 10-min.

Recent microwave imagery shows development of the system around a reasonably well defined eye.

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 0000 UTC was about 8 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system may be steered towards the west southwest by a developing ridge well to the south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga is now near its maximum forecast intensity and should begin to weaken beyond the next 12 hours as the system moves southeast into a high shear environment with cooler SST's. The mid-level trough has also brought dry air in close proximity which may also weaken the system if it is entrained into the core.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
33. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:24 AM GMT on December 07, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.3S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 91.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 94.1E- 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 98.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.1S 101.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near 90E.

Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable but become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on Friday. The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude trough.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
32. Skyepony
5:21 AM GMT on December 07, 2011
Uniontown, KY is fighting flood tonight with broken pumps..

Outer Banks residents hear options to repair N.C. 12

9 Bits and Scenes at a Global Huddle on a Grave Crisis

Earth Networks Announces Major Expansion of Canadian Weather Monitoring and Lightning Network

As much as 45 tons of radioactive water leaked from Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear station over the weekend and some may have reached the sea, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The leakage shows the company known as Tepco is still struggling to control the disaster nine months after an earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant. The water contained 1.8 millisieverts per hour of gamma radiation and 110 millisieverts of beta radiation, Tepco said in an e-mailed statement Saturday. "The source of the beta radiation in the water is likely to include strontium 90, which if absorbed in the body through eating tainted seaweed or fish, accumulates in bone and can cause cancer," said Tetsuo Ito, the head of Kinki University's Atomic Energy Research Institute. Since the March 11 disaster, the utility has reported several leaks of radiated water into the sea, though its estimates of their size has been disputed. In October, a French nuclear research institute said the Fukushima plant was responsible for the biggest discharge of radioactive material into the ocean in history. Tepco is still checking whether the water reached the sea, spokeswoman Chie Hosoda said by phone today. The water leaked from a desalination unit and through a cracked concrete wall into a gutter that drains into the Pacific Ocean, she said. Radiated water has now been pumped out of the building where it was leaking from. The study by the French government-funded Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said radioactive cesium that flowed into the sea from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant was 20 times the amount estimated by Tepco. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Antarctic's hidden world revealed

Nuclear missile debacle in ND.

& for something that just looks really neat..NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th.


Rob~ Yes cookies for you & hot chocolate too:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
31. RobDaHood
2:17 AM GMT on December 07, 2011
Hey Skye!
Thanks for dropping by my blog. Didn't mean to lead you astray, just the ramblings of someone trapped behind a computer all day.

So...did you make any cookies?

LOL

Enjoyed the Tull. Liked your Christmas Tree story. We have for the last few years bought pine trees and decorated them and it works, as it's just me and Angie and the pets in the house. Using them to repopulate the property due to loss of trees in 04/05 storms.

Have a really great evening!

(and pass the cookies please!)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
30. Skyepony
2:00 AM GMT on December 07, 2011
High of 84 low of 61, highest winds was 11mph, 0.01" precipitation. Plain sunset.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
29. Skyepony
11:53 PM GMT on December 06, 2011
Hades~ About time with the TD02!

Looks like 25W didn't make it..

& a big yay for the guys that fixed our NWSMLBFO radar:))
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
28. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:48 PM GMT on December 06, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02 (999 hPa) located at 16.5S 67.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.7S 66.5E - 35 knots (TempĂȘte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 16.9S 65.5E - 35 knots (TempĂȘte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 16.9S 63.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.7S 62.1E - 25 knots (Low Pressure)

Additional Information
======================

The center has been relocated to the northwest according to latest microwave imagery. Deep convection has disappeared close to the center and exist only within a peripheral band located to more than 120 NM in near gale force winds in the southern semi-circle. System is now tracking westward. Rebuilding subtropical anticyclone within the next 24 hours should improve the polar inflow in the lower levels. Energetic potential is poor (26/26.5 degrees). Upper level wind shear is weak. System should deepen a bit within the next 24 hours and could reach moderate tropical storm status. Due to the current trend, this is a low confident forecast. Beyond 48 hours, it should weaken due to a strong vertical wind shear and fill up beyond 96 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
27. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:48 PM GMT on December 06, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga (995 hPa) located at 13.9S 88.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.7S 90.4E - 40 knots (TempĂȘte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 15.9S 92.9E - 40 knots (TempĂȘte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 18.8S 98.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.8S 101.1E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

It is a little bit tricky to find Alenga's center tonight with the most recent fix, and uncertain METOP IR3 fix of 1513z. Vigorous convection has started near the center since 1200z but come mainly from the southwestern quadrant according to latest SSMIS overpass of 1149z. Current cloud pattern is closed to an irregular central dense overcast pattern of a little more than 90 NM diameter.

Alenga seems now to speed up towards the east southeast as it is catching within the west northwesterly steering flow that exists ahead of a mid-level trough transiting in its south.

Only a minor change has been made on the intensity forecast. On an after Thursday, system should undergo a moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear. Intensity is expected to decrease faster, and system should begin its extratropical transition.

On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Wednesday morning. Current forecast is a little bit faster than the previous one about this point.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
26. Skyepony
4:16 AM GMT on December 06, 2011
98S Showing signs of life..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
25. Skyepony
12:59 AM GMT on December 06, 2011
Low was 62, high was 83, winds got to 15mph, had 0.02inches of rain. Sunset had a little color but was cloudless.

Enjoying some Tull..


Aqua~ Those cookies look delicious. I refused to become productive when I quit..lol. Guess free time has a way of motivating. Just finished a sewing rampage. Four scarves, two bags & my fancy black pants for concert. Not four months back at flute & I'll be in a performance..


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
24. Skyepony
10:03 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Alenga
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
23. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:45 PM GMT on December 05, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ALENGA (01-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Alenga (982 hPa) located at 13.1S 86.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.0S 86.8E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 14.6S 88.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 16.8S 93.0E - 60 knots (Forte TempĂȘte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.2S 97.7E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Since 1530z, Alenga shows an irregular eye but deep convective activity remains asymmetric with the more active one mainly located in the northern semi-circle. 1522z ASCAT swath seems to be bad resolved. Current motion is now a southwestward track over the northwestern edge of subtropical ridge. As a high to mid level trough is approaching to the south between 80E and 90E (CF water vapor imagery) and an equatorial ridge should build to the northeast of the system, Alenga is forecast to move little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is some substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available numerical weather prediction models. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The shear continues to weaken. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least a a climatological rate is forecast and Alenga could become a tropical cyclone tomorrow. Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system. Extratropical transition is now expected at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
22. RTLSNK
9:02 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20619
21. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:13 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

Latest satellite imagery and analysis indicate that the tropical depression located at 05/0530z near 12.3S 87.9E has intensified into a moderate tropical storm. It has been named "Alenga". The cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots and is reported as generally moving west at about 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.6S 87.3E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂȘte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.0S 87.5E - 60 knots (Forte TempĂȘte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.5S 90.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.0S 95.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system has rapidly intensified during the last 12 hours, with vigorous convection started in the western semi-circle and wrapping around the center. SSMIS and WINSAT pass of this morning depicts a well defined low level center with evidence of a low level eye feature. Consequently, the system has been named "ALENGA"

Current motion is showing westward track over the northwestern edge of the STR. As a high mid level mid-latitude trough is approaching to the south and an equatorial ridge should build to the northeast of the system, Alenga is forecast to move little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available numerical weather prediction models. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There is still little bit of east northeasterly shear this morning but it is forecast to abate soon. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least at the climatological rate is forecast and ALENGA could become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. On Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
20. aquak9
3:14 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
With free time no longer attached to a cigg, Rain has found new outlets for his energy. He did all the Christmas trees, happily.



Nice story about bringing in the tree. Funny how the tree is so pagan, so old (as well as the holly and mistletoe) yet it seems like the Christian-y Christmas thing to do, go kill a tree.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
19. Skyepony
12:45 AM GMT on December 05, 2011
99S is starting to look impressive.. Here's a sharp image from this morning..


The last ASCAT of 98S..




Brought in our Christmas Tree out of the garden, a Leyland Cypress we bought last year & potted. It's only about 4 1/2 ft this year but all we need. I didn't anticipate the attention everyone would give it. It was like regular Christmas Tree bringing in times five but free & no time spent searching tree lots. I think because it's truly alive, roots & all or maybe it's seen as part of the family, something that lived here all year with us. It's weird in that this feels so right.. like how it started... before we were convinced it should be cut or fake.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
18. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:07 PM GMT on December 04, 2011


numerical weather prediction models really develop 99S.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
17. Skyepony
3:17 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
93W got the upgrade to 25W..I'll get the floater up.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I would not call the invest near Cocos Island completely gone yet.


I thought you might say that. Navy seems a little conservative this week. Saw it after noting they took it down & thought the same..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
16. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:06 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
I would not call the invest near Cocos Island completely gone yet.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
15. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:57 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
15:00 PM UTC December 4 2011
=================================

Cyclone 25W (TD) located at 8.6N 113.9E, or 440 NM east northeast of Ho Chi Ming, Vietnam has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Recent scatterometry and microwave data indicates cyclone sustained winds of 30 knots at the system's center. Maximum significant wave height associated with 25W is 12 feet.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
14. Skyepony
2:56 PM GMT on December 04, 2011
Radar is down..

Message Date: Dec 04 2011 11:23:56 THE KMLB WSR-88D HAS GONE DOWN TO A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE AT THE RDA. WE ARE LOOKING INTO THE PROBLEM AND AN RADAR TECHNICIAN WILL BE DISPATCHED SHORTLY TO INVESTIGATE THE PROBLEM. WE APPRECIATE YOUR PATIENCE AND APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
13. Skyepony
12:12 AM GMT on December 04, 2011
Weather was beautiful today. High of 81, low of 68. Highest wind was 13mph. Took a nap outside til the mid day, December mosquitoes found me.

Storms in the Indian Ocean are gone.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
12. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:35 PM GMT on December 03, 2011
Madagascar Meteorological Services
12:00 PM UTC analysis of cyclone activity

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (01-20112012) <-- number according to their site, unofficial)
Center: 12.6S 69.4E
Pressure: 1000 HPA
10 min winds: 25 KT (45 KM/H)
Gusts: 35 KT (65 KM/H)
Dvorak: CI 2.0
Movement: SSW 04 KT (07 KM/H)
Additional Information: SHEAR PATTERN

---
they're using 01-20112012 again. =P
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
11. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:15 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 2 2011
=========================

A weak low may develop near 7S 97E later on Friday. The low is expected to drift south of 10S into the Western Region during Saturday. It should then move westwards, and will most likely pass west of 090E during Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Sunday or Monday, but is more likely to remain below cyclone strength until it moves west of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
10. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:14 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 2 2011
=================================

Two broad low pressure areas are currently present just to the south of the ITCZ.

The first one is located in our area of responsibility between 10S-20S and 65E-80E. It is stretched along a northwest/southeast axis and show a poorly organized thunderstorm activity. It appears that the low previously monitored to the southeast of Diego Garcia is now dissipated within the eastern part of this broad low pressure system.

Latest SCAT data, surface reports and satellite data show that a new LLCC is currently located in the
western part of the broad system near 12.2S 69.2E at 1000 UTC. MSLP is estimated at 1004 hPa (according buoy 14043) and winds are in the 10/20 kt range.
Due to marginal low level inflow and east northeasterly shear (although it should gradually abate along the week-end), there is a very low potential for cyclogenesis within the next three days.

However, all available NWP guidance keep this low although the forecast period as it should slowly
drift eastwards.

The second one is currently located in the Indonesian area of responsibility. It is located at 0700 UTC near 6.0S 98.2E. Some slow development is possible within the next three days as it should move generally southwestwards. Current outlook call for a possible come in our area of responsibility Sunday night or Monday morning.

For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. It becomes
poor Monday with the potential arrival in our area of responsibility of the low currently located in the Indonesian area of responsibility.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
9. Skyepony
3:06 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
Navy has dropped 99L NOAA still has the floater on it. Looking at some of the waves out there & the amplifying, deep digging fronts coming their way..may see another invest in the next 3-5 days. There is the wave at the Windward Islands that's a little higher than expected & that decent wave riding around 10N in the Central Atlantic. I'll give the latter the best chance but either have opportunity to at least be an invest at some point.

90B is new, 05A is a naked shadow of it's former self..

99S is new..impressive enough in moisture to get a floater.

Other note-able extratropical lows would be the 1009mb one N of Hawaii. & the 967mb low east of Greenland..that looks tight on ASCAT..Ya'll look out for that one in the UK & Norway in a few days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
8. Skyepony
2:47 PM GMT on December 02, 2011
{{{FINN}}} WINS FIRST:))

Good Morning everyone! Happy day.. pulling out of the cold that has had me down since Sunday. Had a little rain yesterday evening. Even saw a little fog. & we didn't miss throw & party & castrate day:)..without further delay~

December 2nd
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Paint, Host a Party
December 3rd
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
December 4th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Castrate Farm Animals, Dig Holes, Wean, Potty Train, Wax Floors, Get Married, Start Diet to Gain Weight
December 5th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes
December 6th
Bake, Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes
December 7th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes, Wax Floors, Paint, Get Married, Advertise to Sell, Buy Clothes
December 8th
Cut Firewood, Cut Hair to Increase Growth, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes, Wax Floors, Paint, Get Married, Advertise to Sell, Buy Clothes
December 9th
Cut Firewood, Mow to Increase Growth, Dig Holes, Host a Party, Travel for Pleasure, Write
December 10th
Cut Hair to Retard Growth, Mow to Retard Growth, Quit Smoking, Wash Wooden Floors, Buy a Car, Host a Party, Write, Slaughter
December 11th
Can Fruits and Vegetables, Mow to Retard Growth, Go Hunting, Brew Beer, Slaughter


Trigirl & CecileWNC~ I usually leave in the photo comments that I'm featuring one when I do. I was so tired I didn't but I had to see & share the first snow. It's weird how many of us in this area of Central FL have our heart's home in those mountains. Your first snow was the weather buzz around Melbourne that day. I know 2 different families that ran up there for it. Thanks so much for sharing.. Both pics were an inspiration to save some cabin cash.

Thanks everyone for commenting & sharing:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37347
7. LakeWorthFinn
5:54 AM GMT on December 02, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
happy december 1st, ya'll. I see no days for demolition, nor castrating. A peaceful month? we'll see.

Finn- I left a comment about your avocados on the previous blog. Maybe we'll see some mango pics, too?

{{{Aqua}}} We ate all 3 mangoes months ago, never thought of taking pics... I do have more pics of that avocado on my blog... and a few new ones of dogs and home.

Misty, I live in the Florida Lake Worth, not the LW in Texas :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7279
6. trigirl
12:16 AM GMT on December 02, 2011
Thanks a lot for featuring my snow image Wintergreen on your blog Skye!
Celebrating life, Debra
www.CelebrateLifeGallery.com
Member Since: April 1, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 1359
5. Barefootontherocks
11:35 PM GMT on December 01, 2011
Hi Skye,
Happy December 1, 2011

Stunning, the "Wintergreen" photo by trigirl.

Thanks for stopping in my blog the other day, whenever it was.
:)
Have a good one!


Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18360

Viewing: 54 - 4

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Skyepony's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 83.3 °F
Dew Point: 82.9 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 8:11 AM EDT on July 25, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 65.1 °F
Dew Point: 63.3 °F
Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 8:11 AM EDT on July 25, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 63.0 °F
Dew Point: 63.0 °F
Humidity: 100%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 7:12 AM EDT on July 25, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations