Skyepony's WunderBlog

Weather News

Posted by: Skyepony, 6:39 AM GMT on November 24, 2007

Featured in the American Geophysical UnionEl Niño events are triggered by surges of cold air from Asia

Two large-scale weather circulation patterns, the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), play major roles in influencing midlatitude climate. For example, unusual amplifications of NAM result in unusual seasonal weather such as the heat wave Europe experienced in the summer of 2003. Past research has demonstrated that anomalies in NAM in the early spring can modulate westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific; these wind bursts are known to trigger El Niño outbreaks. To more concretely show how NAM causes El Niño events, Nakamura et al. (2007) hypothesized that an anomalous NAM influences a surge of cold air from Asia toward the tropics. Through statistical analyses of tropical atmospheric heat and moisture, the authors showed that the surge of cold air strengthens atmospheric heating in the western tropical Pacific through increased air-sea interaction. This, in turn, induces the westerly wind bursts that excite El Niño events. Thus the cold surge acts as a messenger from NAM to ENSO

Fijian officials say villagers from the tiny island of Cikobia survived the destruction from Cyclone Daman even though most buildings were flattened.

They were able to flee their homes before the cyclone made a direct hit early Friday morning and took shelter in caves.

Communication to the island on Fiji's northeastern border were knocked out in the storm.

But a nurse on Cikobia was able to get a radio message to Labasa Hospital on Fiji's second largest island of Vanua Levu.

Hospital spokesmen said the nurse confirmed there were no serious injuries.

The worst of the storm is considered to have passed, but Fijians are being warned of possible flash-floods in low-lying areas and coastal flooding at high tide.

Western States Get Up to 2 Feet of Snow Saturday December 8, 2007 2:31 AM

LOS ANGELES (AP) - A Pacific Northwest storm blew through Southern California early Friday without causing much damage or delivering the mudslides and severe flooding that many had feared.

But the mountains of Nevada and Colorado saw as much as 2 feet of snow, delighting ski resorts.

``We've had 30 inches in the last 24 (hours). It's money out there,'' said Trenton Naef, an employee at the Crested Butte ski area about 110 miles southwest of Denver.

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NADI, Fiji (AP) - A powerful tropical cyclone packing wind gusts up to 250 kilometers an hour (155 miles an hour) headed Friday toward northern Fiji, where islanders braced for heavy rain and coastal sea surges overnight, officials said.

Cyclone Daman, rated a category 4 cyclone by the South Pacific nation's Nadi Meteorological Center, was expected to cause "major flooding'' and "pretty serious damage'' to islanders' houses and to low-lying coastal areas after smashing ashore later Friday, senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven said.

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Southern California residents stacked sandbags Thursday and authorities urged people to evacuate ahead of possible flash flooding and mudslides in areas burned bare by recent wildfires.

Meanwhile, thousands in the Pacific Northwest remained without power or clean drinking water after a deadly wave of storms there.

In California, Orange County sheriff's patrol cars broadcast warnings through loudspeakers urging about 2,000 people to get out of three canyons because some of the heaviest rainfall in more than a year was expected to hit the area overnight.

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

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Local Forecast Graphics.

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Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados

These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Watching for rain & minimum temps..

click maps to go interactive

Saturday should be a little warmer

Next front ~next Wed, best chance of a sprinkle should be SFL. Looking at well above climo till then.
.

click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.

Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS

Tropical Depression Probibility

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November 26th La Nina Update

weekly CPC report is out. From the monthly ASO scored a -.8. Next week I think we'll see a another slight increase in 1,2 & an increase or same in 3, the other regions still decreasing.

Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -2.0 TO -2.3
Region 3 REMAINED -1.8
Region 3.4 INCREASED FROM -1.6 TO -1.4
Region 4 INCREASED FROM -1.2 TO -0.9

ESPI INCREASED FROM -1.08 to -0.82

We have now had La Nina conditions for 17 weeks.

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Updated: 3:48 AM GMT on December 08, 2007

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Oct 2007 world extremes

Posted by: Skyepony, 4:45 AM GMT on November 11, 2007

Let me start by giving credit to NOAA for all the images & text in italics,

On October 30, 57% of the western U.S., 67% in the Southeast, and 35% of the contiguous U.S. were in moderate to exceptional drought, according to the Federal U.S. Drought Monitor.
In the state of Georgia, the exceptional drought has taken a toll on the state's water supplies, forcing the governor to declare a state of emergency across the northern half of the state. Lake Lanier, a 15,380 hectares (38,000 acres) reservoir in the northern part of the state, serves more than 3 million residents with water and it is feared that it might be in total depletion in 3 more months (BBC News).

Severe wildfires in southern California, which started on October 21, forced 950,000 residents to evacuate the area, resulting in the biggest evacuation in Californian history (BBC News). The fires charred 209,200 hectares (517,000 acres), destroyed more than 2,000 homes, killed 7 people and injured 40 others.

Across China, moderate to extreme drought conditions persist across northern Neimongol, eastern Hubei, southern Jiangxi, western Fujian, and northeastern Tibet

60 people died & ~30000+ were left homeless in the Caribbean due to flooding.

Lost 20 in the GOM in a oil rig accidents due to high waves.

Flooding killed 2 in Spain.

"many" people died in South Bangledesh due to a rain storm Oct 17th.

Oct 17th was a bad day in the US for severe weather as well. 30 injured in Tulsa, OK. The next day the rath continued it's march across the land.

For Cyclones Lekima killed atleast 86 people in the Phillipines & Vietnam. Vietnam had their worst flooding in 45 years. It was never stronger than a Cat 1.

Typhoon Krosa become the strongest typhoon to hit Taiwan during this year. Krosa's aftermath led to 7 fatalities and left about 2 million people without power.

Noel~ Noel brought heavy rains that caused widespread floods and prompted landslides across the island of Hispaniola (AFP). In the Dominican Republic, 84 people lost their lives and about 14,500 homes were damaged, while 57 deaths were reported in Haiti. Noel's wrath damaged the Dominican Republic's rice, plantain, and cacao plantations leading to an estimated $30 million in losses (Associated Press). After making landfall in Haiti, Noel moved towards Cuba, making a second landfall on October 30 with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (97 km/hr or 52 knots). According to reports, the heavy rain in Cuba damaged 1,000 homes (Associated Press). Tropical storm Noel became the deadliest storm of the 2007 season (Associated Press).

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Firestorm weather forecasted for Southern CA beginning Tuesday night. Looks like they are being more proactive.

Cold stap in Korea

Official count in Bangledesh is up to 3000 & rising.
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Sidr

As the World Burns

State details aerial response to California wildfires

3rd & final part of IPCC report is out

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

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Local Forecast Graphics.

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Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados

click maps to go interactive

Thanksgiving looks dry early, high in the low 80s. Late Thanksgiving north end may see a little rain With central & south FLorida's chanced best through the night & into Friday morning. Front stalls around SFL then slowly lifts. Though that increases rain chances, probibly not near what we need.

Tropical Depression Probibility

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November 19th La Nina Update (NOAA took off Veterans Day)~ weekly CPC report is out. From the monthly ASO scored a -.8. The current -1 or less in all regions but 4 has it almost moderate strength.

Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -2.2 to -2.4
Region 3 INCREASED FROM -1.9 TO -1.7
Region 3.4 INCREASED FROM -1.5 TO -1.4
Region 4 DECREASED FROM -0.9 TO -1.0

ESPI INCREASED FROM -1.20 TO -1.14
We have now had La Nina conditions for 15 weeks.

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Updated: 6:49 AM GMT on November 22, 2007

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Weather News & Blob Watching

Posted by: Skyepony, 4:38 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

WEATHER NEWS

Thousands of people in the east of England have been told to evacuate their homes and move treasured possessions to higher ground before tomorrow morning in advance of a devastating storm surge.

Some 10,000 homes and businesses will be affected, according to the Environment Agency, which has issued seven severe flood warnings for people living on the Norfolk and Suffolk coast near Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft.

Environment Secretary Hilary Benn warned the Commons of a potential serious flooding risk on the east coast in the next 48 hours.

Gordon Brown tonight convened Cobra, the emergency panel of government officials, to anticipate the floods.

Sea levels will surge to three metres above usual tidal levels as a result of north-westerly winds and a pocket of low pressure.The wind, which the Met Office predicts will blow up to 60mph, will funnel water from the wider part of the North Sea in the north to the narrower part in the south, causing a build-up that will arrive on the Norfolk coast between 7am and 9am tomorrow. The winds will be compounded by low pressure, which causes sea levels to rise. If pressure decreases by one millibar, the sea level rises by one centimetre.

Western North Carolina drought

MEXICO: Politicians Make Hay With Flood Aid
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Cholera and dengue threaten Mexican flood victims

Cuban flooding keeps evacuees from returning home

Experts Warn Fla. About Climate Change

TN Teens rescued after being stuck up to chests in mud

Bush vetoes $23-billion water bill
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Latest Mexico flooding update

Atlanta water Shortage

How shorter days affect us.
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92L ~ gone
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

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Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados

click maps to go interactive

Below average temps continue through Saturday. Sunday should be about normal.. Just gets warmer through next week, back above climo. No measurable rain in sight.

The dry season has most likely begun.

Tropical Depression Probibility

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November 4th 29 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.

Region 1-2 INCREASED FROM -1.9 TO -1.6
Region 3 decreased FROM -1.4 TO -1.7
Region 3.4 remained -1.3
Region 4 REMAINED -0.6

ESPI DECREASED FROM -0.73 to -1.03

STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS EXIST!!!

We have now had La Nina conditions for 13 weeks.

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Updated: 7:48 PM GMT on November 08, 2007

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