Skyepony's WunderBlog

Noel Beach Erosion

By: Skyepony, 4:39 AM GMT on October 26, 2007

Hurricane NOEL~ REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN






RGB loop


02/2345 UTC 31.9N 72.1W EXTRATROPICAL NOEL
02/1745 UTC 30.1N 73.0W EXTRATROPICAL 16L
02/1145 UTC 29.1N 74.3W T3.5/4.0 NOEL
02/0545 UTC 28.0N 75.3W T3.5/3.5 NOEL
01/1745 UTC 24.8N 77.6W T3.5/3.5 NOEL
01/1145 UTC 23.9N 78.6W T3.5/3.5 NOEL
01/0545 UTC 23.9N 78.5W T3.0/3.0 NOEL
31/2345 UTC 23.0N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL
31/1745 UTC 22.5N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL
31/1145 UTC 22.1N 78.0W OVERLAND NOEL
31/0545 UTC 21.4N 78.1W OVERLAND NOEL
30/2345 UTC 21.1N 77.8W OVERLAND NOEL
30/1145 UTC 21.0N 76.7W OVERLAND NOEL
30/0545 UTC 21.0N 75.2W T3.0/3.0 NOEL
29/2345 UTC 20.9N 74.6W T2.5/2.5 NOEL
29/1745 UTC 20.4N 73.6W T1.5/2.0 NOEL
29/1145 UTC 19.8N 72.6W OVERLAND NOEL
29/0545 UTC 17.7N 72.5W T3.0/3.0 NOEL
28/2345 UTC 17.1N 72.2W T3.0/3.0 NOEL
28/1745 UTC 16.6N 71.8W T2.5/2.5 NOEL
28/1145 UTC 16.0N 71.3W T2.0/2.0 16L
28/0545 UTC 15.4N 71.6W T1.5/1.5 16L
It appears storm track/intensity was argued & rewritten today...
28/1145 UTC 15.8N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 16L
28/1145 UTC 15.8N 71.0W T1.0/1.0 CUR
28/1145 UTC 15.8N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 16L
28/0545 UTC 15.4N 71.6W T1.5/1.5 16L
28/1145 UTC 15.8N 71.0W T1.0/1.0 CUR
28/0545 UTC 15.4N 71.6W T1.5/1.5 16L
27/2345 UTC 15.7N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 90L
27/1745 UTC 15.1N 70.9W T1.0/1.0 90L
27/1145 UTC 14.9N 70.4W T1.0/1.0 90L
27/0545 UTC 15.4N 69.6W T1.0/1.0 90L
26/2345 UTC 15.8N 69.4W TOO WEAK 90L
26/1515 UTC 16.7N 68.8W TOO WEAK 90L
26/1145 UTC 17.5N 66.7W T1.5/1.5 90L
26/0545 UTC 17.8N 65.5W T1.5/1.5 90L
25/2345 UTC 18.8N 64.9W T1.5/1.5 90L
25/1745 UTC 19.0N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 90L
25/1145 UTC 19.3N 63.1W T1.0/1.0 90L

..........................


NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Cooler & drier
Ocean still dangerous through the weekend.

The dry season has most likely begone.







click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
October 29 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.

Region 1-2 INCREASED FROM -2.3 TO -1.9
Region 3 INCREASED FROM -1.5 TO -1.4
Region 3.4 INCREASED FROM -1.4 TO -1.3
Region 4 REMAINED -0.6

ESPI DECREASED FROM -0.51 TO -0.73

STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS NOW EXIST!!!

We have now had La Nina conditions for 12 weeks.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Updated: 3:06 AM GMT on November 03, 2007

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La Niña~ What it Will Do to You

By: Skyepony, 2:37 AM GMT on October 09, 2007

Globally~
By studying past cold episodes scientists have discovered precipitation and temperature anomaly patterns that are highly consistent from one episode to another. Significant departures from normal are shown in the accompanying figures for the Northern Hemisphere winter and summer seasons. During cold episodes, the colder than normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific act to inhibit the formation of rain-producing clouds over that region. Wetter than normal conditions develop farther west over northern Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia, during the northern winter, and over the Philippines during the northern summer. Wetter than normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil, during the northern winter season. During the northern summer season, the Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal, especially in northwest India. Drier than normal conditions during cold episodes are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons.

Mid-latitude low pressure systems tend to be weaker than normal in the region of the Gulf of Alaska, during a cold episode winter. This favors the build-up of colder than normal air over Alaska and western Canada, which often penetrates into the northern Great Plains and the western United States. The southeastern United States, on the other hand, becomes warmer and drier than normal.

Credit NOAA/CPC







More NOAA winter outlook here
..........................


NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current......Flash Flood.......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Monday~ Rain increases for NFL, AL, GA, maybe heavy at times. CFL shoould see this contined on & off light rain. SFL should have less rain.

Rain sould linger a few days. Models are fickle, wed or thurs could bring dry air with a outside chance of a backdoor cold front for week's end.


.






click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
October 22 La Nina Update~ weekly CPC report is out.







Region 1-2 DECREASED FROM -2.0 TO -2.3
Region 3 INCREASED FROM -1.6 TO -1.5
Region 3.4 INCREASED FROM -1.7 TO -1.4
Region 4 INCREASED FROM -0.7 TO -0.6

ESPI DECREASED FROM -0.31 TO -0.51

STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS NOW EXIST!!!

We have now had La Nina conditions for 11 weeks.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map!

Updated: 5:18 PM GMT on October 23, 2007

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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