Skyepony's WunderBlog

Felix Recon Decoded

By: Skyepony, 11:00 PM GMT on August 26, 2007

Felix



rgb loop
West-ho he went.


04/1145 UTC 14.3N 83.2W T6.5/6.5 FELIX
04/0615 UTC 14.4N 82.0W T6.0/6.0 FELIX
03/2345 UTC 14.4N 80.3W T6.0/7.0 FELIX
03/1745 UTC 14.3N 78.7W T6.0/7.0 FELIX
03/1145 UTC 14.2N 76.9W T7.0/7.0 FELIX
03/0615 UTC 14.0N 75.1W T6.5/7.0 FELIX
02/2345 UTC 13.8N 73.0W T7.0/7.0 FELIX
02/1745 UTC 13.5N 71.1W T6.0/6.0 FELIX
02/1145 UTC 13.1N 69.3W T5.0/5.0 FELIX
02/0615 UTC 12.8N 68.0W T4.0/4.0 FELIX
01/2145 UTC 12.8N 66.2W T4.0/4.0 FELIX
01/1745 UTC 12.4N 64.5W T3.5/3.5 FELIX
01/1145 UTC 12.3N 62.5W T3.0/3.0 FELIX
01/0615 UTC 12.1N 61.2W T2.5/2.5 06L
31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L
31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L
31/1145 UTC 11.3N 56.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
31/0945 UTC 11.2N 56.0W T1.5/1.5 94L
31/0615 UTC 11.9N 53.9W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/2345 UTC 11.9N 53.2W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1745 UTC 11.8N 52.3W T1.0/1.0 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.1N 51.3W TOO WEAK 94L
30/0615 UTC 11.1N 48.9W TOO WEAK 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.9N 46.2W TOO WEAK 94L
29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/0615 UTC 11.7N 42.8W TOO WEAK 94L
28/1145 UTC 10.3N 39.7W TOO WEAK 94L

98L
is a wave out there in the open atlantic..NOAA is still eyeing it up
Set back by sheer, dove south.
04/2345 UTC 11.2N 38.5W TOO WEAK 98L
04/1745 UTC 11.2N 40.2W TOO WEAK 98L
03/2345 UTC 10.8N 39.6W TOO WEAK 98L
03/1745 UTC 11.0N 39.5W T1.0/1.0 98L
03/1145 UTC 10.8N 39.9W TOO WEAK 98L
02/2345 UTC 11.4N 39.8W TOO WEAK 98L
02/1745 UTC 11.7N 39.1W TOO WEAK 98L
02/1145 UTC 11.8N 38.6W TOO WEAK 98L
01/2345 UTC 12.6N 37.4W TOO WEAK 98L
01/1745 UTC 13.1N 36.4W TOO WEAK 98L


The GA/FL low is now 99L~ I can see this being a Tropical Depression, earliest Wed. More in the local weather.

RGB Loop

04/2345 UTC 29.4N 73.7W T1.5/1.5 99L
04/1745 UTC 29.5N 73.8W T1.5/1.5 99L
04/1145 UTC 29.2N 76.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
03/2345 UTC 30.1N 77.3W TOO WEAK 99L


Keeping a weary eye on the low off TX/MX & Africa

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





WEd may be our last decent chance of rain depending on 99L. As it moves farther east tommarrow & with our NE onshore flow from the gradent from 99L & the New England high~ best chance rain interior south, maybe lucky Lake O.

99L looks to be pulling it together in 10-20kts sheer, maybe a TD soon. Hunters are task to fly it wednesday early afternoon.

Thursday 99L is forecast to maybe move a little closer & strengthen pulling our moister away, keeping us dry for possibly days. But nothing can be forcast with certainty much beyond Thursday.









click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Atl
99L 25kts 1009mb
Felix~ 94L~ 50kts 982mb
98L gone from Navy

EPAC~

Heneretta~ (95E) alotta convection 65kts 975mb ~Landfall on Baja



WPAC
97W~ 15kts 1010mb swirl exposed.
FITOW~ 10W~ 94W 75kts 967mb Strenthenin & headed toward an island that may or maynot be Japan. (there's bonus points here)








~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated Sept 4th~ weekly CPC report is out. Their summary remains the same expecting a weak La Niña within the next few months. Pages 20 & 21 outline the criteria for a La Nina. That & the current #s tell a different story.


Region 1-2 DECREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM -1.5 to -2.3
Region 3 DECREASED FROM -1.1 to -1.2
Region 3.4 REMAINED -0.6
Region 4 DECREASED FROM +0.1 to NEUTRAL

ESPI ROSE again from -0.75 to -0.54

We are in weak La Nina conditions 4 weeks now.


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Updated: 5:26 PM GMT on September 05, 2007

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ECFL

By: Skyepony, 8:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2007

Not much happening tropically. 2 invests in the West Pacific. Next possible invest around here~ best chance goes to the blob in the EPAC, followed by the blob that just rolled off africa. Other areas to watch would be the mid`Alantic where cmc, gfs models pick up on wave catching a 2nd wave to form a storm. Caribbean is moist, at the moment all the convection happens during the day, which is good, daytime rains & no storm. BOC has a surface low, but it is too close to land.

Not ready to depart with 92L's reminants so I'll leave Sebastianjer's pic up another day.





Have a great Sunday everyone!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Sun~mid next week~ Less rain, best chance interior & north end.







click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



WPAC
93W 1010mbs 15kts
90W 1003mbs 15kts Not impressive looking. Tropics are resting.




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated August 20th~ a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pd f" target="_blank">weekly is out. Their summary remains the same expecting a weak La Niña within the next few months. Pages 20 & 21 outline the criteria for a La Nina. That & the current #s tell a different story.


Region 1-2 ROSE from -1.8 to -1.2
Region 3 ROSE from -1.3 to -1.0
Region 3.4 ROSE from -0.6 to -0.5
Region 4 Remained +0.1

We are in weak La Nina conditions.

ESPI ROSE from -1.49 to -1.25 We are already seeing the moderating from last weeks rise, next week may bring another. I wouldn't be suprised for us to be in ENSO neutral conditions again soon before another fall.
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Updated: 5:51 AM GMT on August 26, 2007

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Dean recon highlights

By: Skyepony, 4:49 AM GMT on August 10, 2007

Hurricane Dean & a wave in the central Atlantic are the 2 dominate features in the Atlantic.

1st~ Hurricane Dean, now a Cat 4.
In the short term I wish the best for my friends in the Leewards & points just west, rapid intensification has occured & may continue, so please do all possible to protect life & property.

Long term forecast...I've used my calipers & come to the conclusion Dean won't fit in the Caribbean, so alotta people not directly on the line of doom will feel effects.

Short term I wholey agree with NHC as far as track. Long term I'm hedging just north of the current forecast, around MX, TX border. Still waiting to see where the ULL lands.






If daytime~ check out the RGB loop


19/2345 UTC 17.5N 77.8W T5.5/6.5 DEAN
19/1745 UTC 17.1N 75.9W T6.0/6.5 DEAN
19/1145 UTC 16.8N 74.1W T6.5/6.5 DEAN
19/0615 UTC 16.4N 72.7W T5.5/6.5 DEAN
18/2345 UTC 16.1N 71.0W T6.5/6.5 DEAN
18/1745 UTC 15.9N 69.5W T6.0/6.0 DEAN
18/1145 UTC 15.4N 67.9W T6.0/6.0 DEAN
18/0615 UTC 15.0N 66.7W T6.0/6.0 DEAN
17/2345 UTC 14.9N 65.1W T6.0/6.0 DEAN
17/1745 UTC 14.9N 63.4W T5.0/5.0 DEAN
17/1145 UTC 14.4N 61.7W T5.0/5.0 DEAN
17/0615 UTC 14.1N 60.0W T4.5/4.5 DEAN
16/2345 UTC 14.0N 57.6W T4.5/4.5 DEAN
16/1745 UTC 13.8N 55.4W T4.5/4.5 DEAN
16/1145 UTC 13.5N 53.2W T4.5/4.5 DEAN
15/2345 UTC 13.2N 49.3W T3.5/3.5 DEAN
15/1745 UTC 12.6N 46.9W T3.0/3.0 DEAN
15/1145 UTC 12.1N 45.2W T3.0/3.0 DEAN
15/0545 UTC 12.1N 43.4W T2.5/2.5 DEAN
14/2345 UTC 11.8N 41.3W T2.5/2.5 DEAN
14/1745 UTC 11.7N 40.1W T2.5/2.5 DEAN
14/1145 UTC 12.0N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 04L
14/0545 UTC 12.0N 36.5W T2.0/2.0 04L
13/1745 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
13/1145 UTC 11.8N 30.6W T2.0/2.0 90L
13/0615 UTC 12.4N 28.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
12/2345 UTC 12.6N 26.6W T1.0/1.5 90L



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Mon-Thurs~ warmer & drier. Wind slowly drops through the week as the high over us weakens & Dean moves farther away.

Fri-Sun~ Increased chance of rain as a tropical wave passes through..








click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


ATLANTIC
TS Dean~125kts 930mb



WPAC
90W 1010 15kts
99W gone

95W ~Sepat 30kts 1000mb overland china




Indian ocean~
92B 15kts 1010mb




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Updated August 13th~ a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pd f" target="_blank">weekly is out. Their summary remains the same expecting a weak La Niña within the next few months. Pages 20 & 21 outline the criteria for a La Nina. That & the current #s tell a different story.

Regions 1+2 Dropped from -1.7 to -1.8
Region 3 Dropped from -1.2 to -1.3
Region 3.4 Dropped from -.5 to -.6
Region 4 Dropped from +.2 to .1

We are in weak La Nina conditions.

ESPI ROSE from -1.72 to -1.49 Indicating the drop may be moderating in the next week or 2. I wouldn't be suprised for us to be in ENSO neutral conditions again soon before another fall. The continued ebb & flow in the long fall.

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Updated: 2:51 AM GMT on August 20, 2007

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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