Skyepony's WunderBlog

East Central FL Weather & Tropics

By: Skyepony, 4:38 AM GMT on July 30, 2007

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive









thurs-fri~ small increase rain chances, especially interior of state with a late day east coast seabreeze event possible.

Sun to early next week may see that tropical wave interact with a trough over us to break the dry spell.









click maps to make bigger & animate

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

Shear Tendency

Click on map to enlarge, check 2 other shear maps, divergance, convergance, 850 vort, visible winds, upper & lower winds. To get back to the steering currents click on home & click layer mean wind analysis per basin.

HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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EPAC


09E Flossie Pulled together nicely, maybe a problem for Hawaii
92E gone

WPAC
94W~15kts
93W~15kts 1010mb
92W mush have come & gone in the last 14 hrs or so..
91W~15kts 1010mb~ covers a large area.

08W Wutip 20kts 1007mb going for China??

Pabuk~07W~98W~30kts 1000mb



Indian Ocean
91A 15kts 1010




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Updated August 6th~ a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pd f" target="_blank">weekly is out. Their summary remains the same expecting a weak La Niña within the next few months. Pages 20 & 21 outline the criteria for a La Nina. That & the current #s tell a different story.



Regions 1+2 Dropped from -1.4 to -1.7
Region 3 Dropped from -.9 to -1.2
Region 3.4 Dropped from -.3 to -.5
Region 4 Dropped from +.3 to +.2

We have now reached weak La Nina conditions.

ESPI fell from -1.62 to -1.72 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. Earlier this week the ESPI was down even lower. So this fall may moderate for the time being. I wouldn't be suprised for us to be in ENSO neutral conditions again soon before another fall. The continued ebb & flow in the long fall.

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To lose one so close to gaining one. Life is bitter sweet. To come home from the hospital carrying the family's newest, without the family's old lady waiting was sad.

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Updated: 6:28 PM GMT on August 09, 2007

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MJO, Doldrums & ENSO

By: Skyepony, 5:08 AM GMT on July 25, 2007

The MJO.

green denotes active MJO areas~ increased rain, enhanced chances of cyclones. The brown is none active supressed areas.

Another view of where it has been up to in graphic form.


On to the doldrums~ The blue shows where the surface wind has been low for atleast 4 days now. This raises SST in those areas.

This is also usually pretty bad for any coral in these areas this time of year.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






WED-FRI~ Rain chances 60% day, 30% night. Interior & east coast has the best chance for the afternoon sea breeze storms. Coverage should be good so noone is out of the question. Watch for severe weather. Temps should be about normal for this time of year.

Sat & Sun~ Active rainy period most likely continues.
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click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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I guess that ULL I was watching was 97L a short time & is now gone. Missed it.

CPAC

06E~COSME gone

EPAC 98E~Dalila 45kts 1000mb~ shouldn't hit land.


WPAC 96W~15kts 1010mb

Southern Hemisphere~ 25kts 1004mb
This is wierd for this time of the year. So much so a pic for the arcives.


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Updated July 24th~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.

Regions 1&2 stayed at -1.9, region 3 ended at -.7, 3.4 back up from -.4 to -.2, and region 4 rose from .2 to .3



We're still on the cool side of neutral. The fall of ENSO has moderated once again for now.

The cool pool below continues to build, moved some toward the surface as well, but the warm water from the west is fighting back once again. Nature's ebb & flow.


this is a look back over the last year with Aug of 2006 at the top, now at the bottom~ the left the west Pacific, the right the east end of the Pacific, a skinny snap shot of the water stretched across the equator, then stacked though time. We looked due for a little moderation.


ESPI fell from -1.11 to -1.21 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. The moderation I called for has happened, the next week or 2 should bring near the same or slightly cooler. Make it to La Nina condition? Maybe in the next drop. Probibly not in the next 2 weeks.
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Updated: 7:06 PM GMT on July 25, 2007

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The 1st 1/2 of 2007 in review

By: Skyepony, 5:45 AM GMT on July 19, 2007

While globaly the 1st 1/2 of the year was 2nd hottest on record, it was the 18th warmest for the US.

The lack of precipitation led to widespread drought, which triggered an early start to the wildfire season, mounting crop losses and local drought emergencies. However, drought in the southern and central Plains gave way to heavy and persistent rains which led to devastating flooding from Texas to Kansas in June.



Espesially being a 6 month period the precipitaion extremes are amazing. That's the 2nd driest for FL..

Global Highlights

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record for the January-June six-month period. Separately, the global January-June land-surface temperature was warmest on record, while the ocean-surface temperature was the sixth warmest in the 128-year period of record.

This past June has been the warmest ever recorded for the South Pole.

Credit all info, maps & words in italics to NOAA, also vist that link for more info & the US & global info for June..

Going more indepth



(clicking this one not only makes it bigeer but animates it.



As the earth & it's surface layers are hot, the stratosphere remaines anonomalously cold ranking for the 1st 1/2 of 2007 as the 5th coldest on record.


Credit all this info graphs & maps to NOAA too. More info including the June review here.




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






Weekend~ Good coverage of afternoon storms (50-60%), especially east side. 20-30% Chance of late evening into the night rain as well. Watch out for severe weather particularly afternoons & the central to north 1/2 of the state. South end looking overall deir than the rest of the state.

Monday-Thurs~ a little less rain expected. (more around climo)

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click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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CPAC

06E~COSME 30kts 1010mb~~ Nearly just south of Hawaii.



EPAC 98E~20kts 1009mb~ looking healthy

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Updated July 16th~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.

Regions 1&2 fell from -1.3 to -1.7, region 3 fell slightly from -.6 to -.8, 3.4 fell from -.2 to -.4, and region 4 rose from .1 to .2


With region 3,4 at -.4 we are almost in La Nina but still offical cool side of neutral conditions.

The cool pool below continues to build....

Instead of looking at actual models lets look at how the models have been doing..


link

Time evolution of the NINO3.4 anomaly forecasts up to 12 lead months by the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871) initiated monthly up to JUN 2007. Anomalies were calculated relative to the 1971–2000 climatology . Shown in each panel are the forecasts grouped by three consecutive starting months: (a) is for December, January, and February, (b) is for March, April, and May, (c) is for June, July, and August, and (d) is for September, October, and November. The observed NINO3.4 SST anomalies are shown in the heavy-dashed lines.

ESPI rose from -1.16 -1.11 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. My forecast for the next few weeks... The fall of ENSO is on. In a week or 2 I expect it to level a little. Make it to La Nina condition? we are almost there.
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Updated: 6:16 AM GMT on July 21, 2007

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Eyewall wind profiles

By: Skyepony, 4:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

Instead of news today a reveiw of sorts of the % of flight level winds that the hurrican hunters use to figure the surface winds.

Powell and Black (1990) recommended that a ratio of 63%-73% be used to reduce reconnaissance flight-level wind observations. While operational practices at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have varied over time, in recent years surface winds have typically been taken to be 80%-90% of the flight-level wind. In view of studies such as Powell and Black, use of these relatively high ratios has periodically resulted in criticism of NHC intensity estimates.

Well Powell & Black was using buoys & what not outside the eyewall to come up with these #s. With the invention & extensive use of tossing dropwindsondes into eyewalls (357 times) NHC decided some revising was needed. & That is why at times we see these higher %s used.

Results~

Figure 1 shows the mean eyewall wind speed profile, where the wind at each level has been normalized by the wind speed at 700 mb (taken from the dropsonde profile, if available, or from the aircraft 700 mb flight-level wind at the time of launch, if not). The strongest winds in the eyewall are found near 500 m (1600 ft) elevation; these are about 20% higher than the 700 mb wind, owing to the warm-core nature of the tropical cyclone. For comparison, the mean profile for non-eyewall sondes within 200 miles of the cyclone center is also shown. In the outer part of the vortex, the low-level wind maximum is found at a somewhat higher elevation and is not as pronounced as in the eyewall. The ratio of the surface to 700 mb wind (R700) is 0.78 in the outer vortex and 0.91 in the eyewall. Note that the former figure is not far from Powell and Black's (1990) estimate of 0.73. This is not surprising given that their sample was comprised almost exclusively of outer vortex observations.

The outward slope of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) in the hurricane eyewall with height causes the value R700 = 0.91 given above to be biased slightly high, since many sondes are released inward of the flight-level RMW in an attempt to measure the maximum surface winds. When R700 is evaluated only from sondes at the RMW a value of 0.88 is obtained. This value should represent a lower bound on R700, placing the true value of R700 between 0.88 and 0.91

So they tend to use 90% as a mean reduction average. But there is more to consider. If a storm is getting wrapped up or wound down.. For example hurricane Mitch had higher winds at the surface, at one point, since it was weaking starting at the top, while the surface was still at peak.



Other storms have much weaker than 90% flight level winds at the surface too. This is one reason I find Cloudsat so intreging...

On to the results~ what we should look at when we're watching recon..

4. Operational Recommendations
Based on these and similar analyses for other normalization altitudes, the following reduction factors are recommended for reducing flight-level winds in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the surface (33 ft) level: for the 700 mb level, R = 0.90; for the 850 mb level (commonly flown in tropical storms), R = 0.80. For investigative flights at 1,000 ft, R = 0.85. As significant variations from these means have been noted in individual storms; these guidelines can be modified as conditions warrant. Storm-to-storm variability will primarily be influenced by wind speed, cyclone convective intensity, and sea-surface temperature.


Another revilation of the study, the effects felt in tall buildings or evelvated land. On average 30 storys up is experiencing a catagory higher than those on the ground. For you people in tall condos....

Table 1. Mean Hurricane Eyewall Wind Variation With Elevation

Ht(ft)...#Storys..Wind(% surface)... Press Force(% surface)
33 (sfc).... 3 ......100 ..................100
50 ..........5...... 103.................. 106
100........ 10...... 108.................. 117
150........ 15...... 111.................. 123
200........ 20...... 115.................. 132
250.........25...... 117.................. 137
300........ 30...... 119.................. 142
400........ 40...... 121.................. 146
500........ 50...... 123.................. 151
600........ 60...... 125.................. 156
750........ 75...... 128.................. 164
1000...... 100...... 131.................. 172


Credit graphs, info & stuff in italics to NHC.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





Wed 30% chance or so. North end of the state better than that. Pwatts are still moist but a ridge will be over central FL with warmer air in the mid levels. If rain doesn't hit ya it will get hot & humid..

Thurs-Sun~ maybe a little drier



.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


EPAC

06E~COSME 35kts 1005mb~weakend alot~ Headed in the general direction of Hawaii





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Updated July 16th~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.

Regions 1&2 fell from -1.3 to -1.7, region 3 fell slightly from -.6 to -.8, 3.4 fell from -.2 to -.4, and region 4 rose from .1 to .2


With region 3,4 at -.4 we are almost in La Nina but still offical cool side of neutral conditions.

The cool pool below continues to build....

Instead of looking at actual models lets look at how the models have been doing..


link

Time evolution of the NINO3.4 anomaly forecasts up to 12 lead months by the NCEP/CPC Markov model (Xue et al. 2000, J. Climate, 13, 849-871) initiated monthly up to JUN 2007. Anomalies were calculated relative to the 1971–2000 climatology . Shown in each panel are the forecasts grouped by three consecutive starting months: (a) is for December, January, and February, (b) is for March, April, and May, (c) is for June, July, and August, and (d) is for September, October, and November. The observed NINO3.4 SST anomalies are shown in the heavy-dashed lines.

ESPI rose from -1.16 -1.11 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. My forecast for the next few weeks... The fall of ENSO is on. In a week or 2 I expect it to level a little. Make it to La Nina condition? we are almost there.
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Updated: 5:05 AM GMT on July 18, 2007

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Weather News of the World

By: Skyepony, 5:07 AM GMT on July 07, 2007

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Flood abates clean up begins Te Puru, on the Coromandel Peninsula.

Latest on Man-Yi / Bebeng

More on Man-yi

Yesterdays News

Britian~A MILLION homes could be put on a flooding blacklist by insurers, meaning families whose houses are built on flood plains could be denied cover completely
Kansas residents revisit flooded town~ The one with the oil spill. Who ever okayed an oil tank farm in a diked area... more dead.

Wildfires out west


More on the HWRF hurricane model~ To look at the model click on the FSU model page in the model links below. Interesting the article says the GFDL doesn't use hunter's info...not sure if that is right. I always understood it did. Also said the GFDL didn't predict Katrina to become a cat5 over the Gulf???

Head of Hurricane Center Replaced



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive








Thurs~40-50% chance of rain. Threat of lightning & severe weather. Should get real hot 1st... mid to upper 90's or worse. Some nights barely making it back down to 80 for a low..

Sat & Sun~ 50% chance rain or less.

Early next week rain chances may increase for west 1/2 of FL



.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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EPAC
Tropical Depression o4E~ gone


94W~ 04W~ Man-yi ~ Bebeng~ 120kts 933mb




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Updated July 9th~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.


Regions 1&2 rose from -1.8 to -1.3, region 3 fell slightly from -.5 to -.6, 3.4 fell from 0 to -.2, and region 4 fell from .2 to .1


With region 3,4 at -.2 we are in offical cool side of neutral conditions.

The cool pool below continues to build....


ESPI rose from -1.42 to -1.16 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. My forecast for the next few weeks... The fall of ENSO is on. Make it to La Nina condition? we are almost there.

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Updated: 4:42 AM GMT on July 12, 2007

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 72.9 °F
Dew Point: 72.5 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 4:14 AM EDT on September 18, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 60.6 °F
Dew Point: 58.0 °F
Humidity: 91%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 4:14 AM EDT on September 18, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 60.0 °F
Dew Point: 59.0 °F
Humidity: 98%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 3:11 AM EDT on September 18, 2014

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