Skyepony's WunderBlog

Weather News of the World

By: Skyepony, 4:32 AM GMT on May 16, 2007

Weather news~
Hurricane Simulator to Blow Real Houses Down

Corps: New doubts about N.O. pumps

Cops in Katrina shooting win legal round

Millions suffer as China storms kill at least 23

Gonu death toll to 70

Death toll in Australian storm rises to six

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There never was an easier major 'cane to prepare for than Jeanne. Mainly, since everything had been done for Frances & we were still too tired to have undone much, well that & we spent a little of the few weeks of the inbetween time in Ivan's cone of doom. Lesson learned~ there is certain outdoor matainance & landscaping you do every year. Some you may as well do at the beginning of 'cane season.

Cut & Clear...
~Cut down large dead limbs & trees.
~Cut down sickly trees (many of these will die a few days to a week before a storm anyways).
~Cut back limbs that would hit a structure in a high wind.
~Clear canals & ditches of excess brush & trash.
~This saves you so much time that right before a 'cane hits mow your lawn extra short this helps leaves & debri roll into you nieghbors' yard & shortens your clean up time.

Make a list
~Tour your yard & note the things that would need put away or tossed in the pool. I do a good barn & shed cleaning so there is room to stow the stuff too. Putting up those extra yard idems that aren't used so much in the heat of the summer is good to do as well.

Pick your plants & your fencing
~Anytime you put in new plants native will give you less mess after a storm & be more likely to survive, as well as not land on your house & what not. A few others do well too.
Good plants
~hibiscus, roses, plumbagos, bulganvilia, butterfly plants, roses, palmettos, azalea, jasmine, creeping fig, citrus, live oak, Magnolias.

Bad trees
~Ear trees, queen palms.

~always consider the salt tolerances for your area & consult with a native nursery guy.
~Consider how big a tree can get before you chose where to plant it.

For fences pick sturdy stuff that air flows through. Reinforce gates & besure with privacy fence gates to open them all the way back up against the fence & secure them with nails or screws before a major wind.

NWS Hurricane prepareness site for overall prepareness info
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive




From last ningts MLB NWS dicussion~
GREAT SHUTTLE LAUNCH!! ~ I got pics up from my yard.

SaturdaY ~ Upper Level Low Moves across south FL ~20% chance rain at best~ Lake County has best chance followed by those on the N end of the state. Scattered if any strong storms could be involed. Temps about the normal.

Sunday best chance of rain to the south end of the state. 20% central, drier north. 80's coast, 90's inland.

MOnday - Friday 20-30% chance of sea breeze showers. Inland & south with the best chances. Normal temps coastal, warmer than normal inland.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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No Invests...
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Updated June 7th~ The monthly is out. There take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in 1-3 months.

Regions 1&2 dropped this week, regions 3 & 3,4 stayed the same & region 4 rose.

The latest weekly SST departures are negative in the Ni�o 1+2 (-1.9oC) and Ni�o 3 (-0.6oC) regions, and remain near zero in the Ni�o 3.4 (0.0oC) and Ni�o 4 (+0.4oC) regions (Fig. 2).

We are still barely on the cool side of neutral

CPC summary say La Nina conditions possible in the next 1-3 months.

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.

Barry brought enough rain to put FL in the average to above average rainfall for the last 30 days.

ESPI rose from -0.39 to -.04 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the short term with more cooling after.

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Weather News

Updated: 7:22 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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ENSO update / Rain

By: Skyepony, 6:55 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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ECFL Fire Links & news reprise...


County Emergancy Management
Flagler County
Lake County
Volusia County


Today's fire news

Be sure to check road closures for affected areas, especially around the state line before traveling in these areas. (FHP link under my links on the upper right will do)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





The backboor front isn't bringing much for heat relief. But more widely scattered rain with less lightning is expected today.

Tuesday the better rain chances push south.

Thursday we may see a weak low begin to form over the Bahamas.





click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Deppression Probibility


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Atlantic
90L
25kts 1007mb

West Pacific
90W 20kts 1004mb

Indian Ocean
Akash~ 55kts 984mb Headed for land

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Updated May 14st~ The CPC weekly is out. There take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in 2-3 months.

All the regions took a big fall this week but region 4.



Anomilies are -.8 in regions 3 down .5, down .2 to -.2 in region 3,4. -1.4 in region 1,2 down .5. And up .1 to +.2 in region 4. With 0 in the 3,4 region we are at true neutral.

La Nina conditions are reached when Region 3,4 makes it to -.5. It the rate of the last few weeks with the ESPI scores we've seen, wouldn't be suprised to see it in the next 1-3 weeks...

CPC summary say La Nina conditions possible in the next 1-3 months.

The ESPI fell from 1.17 to -1.26 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. At one point during the week Taz spotted it at -1.50 so in the next few weeks, more drop followed my a little more moderation.

Rapid cooling for the near future is my forecast. Wouldn't be suprised to see us get into La Ni�a conditions 1-3 weeks. Don't know if it would last long enough to be offical.

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ENSO Fire

Updated: 7:23 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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