Skyepony's WunderBlog

Invest 90L & SE Fires

By: Skyepony, 4:15 AM GMT on April 20, 2007

Developing low in the Western Atlantic to watch. It takes atleast 4 days for a cut off low to fully transition to tropical. Tough call if this one will be out there long enough to pull it off. It's coming west toward land & a front is coming east for it. Of course the models are still split about that & direction.


sfwmd

Notice the storm is already south of where the black XTRP line lays..

The impact map deserves a look at.


Some satalite shots on the floater.. Click to enlage & go right to the loop..


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ECFL Fire Links & news reprise...

Like I need another section. Hopefully it will be short lived. For now most the fire links are on the right under my Links. I'll try to get the more local ones in this section over the next few days.

County Emergancy Management
Flagler County
Lake County
Volusia County




Fires spread in Central Florida and Panhandle


Large wildfires merge in Bradford County; 1,000 evacuated

Weather only aggravates ever-growing wildfires
Wind and lightning are blamed for the new blazes in the Okefenokee.

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive





All local eyes on the low pressure, models are pointing it more toward NFL or GA, with some rain possible for ECFL & GA. ECFL Should stay a little cooler than we have been, winds should subside some for a day or 2 starting tommarrow & then may pick back up. Chance of rain is hanging around just like the low. NWS gives ECFL little chance for rain, mostly tommarrow & only Volusia. I give us a little better chance of showers, north most but don't count the rest of us out yet. It very well may never get warm enough core to it to be named an STS even though it's winds are that strong. Usually it takes a cut off low roughly 4 days to go fully tropical. It's a matter of how long it can tap the gulf stream before landfall. Of intrest is the Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page has it as 90L with an ST# of 2.5 which equates 35 KTS, 40 MPH & 1005 mb.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Deppression Probibility


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Atlantic
90L
45kts 1000mb

West Pacific
98W 15kts 1006mb

EPAC blob was short lived...
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Updated May 7st~ The CPC weekly is out. There take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in 2-3 months.

All the regions took a fall this week.

Anomilies are -.3 in regions 3 down .3, down .2 to 0 in region 3,4. -1.3 in region 1,2 down .2. And down .1 to +.1 in region 4. With 0 in the 3,4 region we are at true neutral.

The ESPI fell from -.66 to -1.17 for the last weeks for the last 30 days.

Rapid cooling for the near future is my forecast. Wouldn't be suprised to see us get into La Ni�a conditions. Don't know if it would last long enough to be offical.

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Tropics What Not

Updated: 7:17 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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Weather, News & What Nots

By: Skyepony, 1:03 AM GMT on April 10, 2007


The recent noreaster storm death count is now up to atleast 16. Between the storm & the shooting in VA, it's been a sad few days.

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Study: Climate Change Risks National Security

Good News South America! The Goes-10 satallite was moved over for better coverage of South America.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






Slight chance of rain, more chance north & tonight (we're talking sprinkles. After that into the long term looks dry.

Major Hazard is wildfires. It's safe to go in the water again.





click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Deppression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



West Pacific~
95W~ gone

Indian Ocean~

Southern Hemisphere

93S 15kts 1006mb.

That makes 0:1 S Hemisphere takes lead. We are running neck & neck as cane season switches from one hemisphere to another...daily

EPAC gets an honorable mention with the light blue box on the prob map. In all truth it looks way more impressive than the 1 invest.

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Updated April 16th~ The CPC weekly is out.

The Jan, Feb, Mar average was +.3 which brings us to offical neutral.

As for the week we had a bit of warming in nearly all the regions. This is good, comforting to see a trend up or down in a jagged, up & down way, like history dictates instead of the insane drops we've witnessed lately.



Anomilies are -.2 in regions 3, .2 in region 3,4. -1.1 in region 1,2. And +.3 in region 4. Overall for the week it went up .1 in region 1,2 ~ Region 3 went up .4~ The central & western Pacific in regions 3,4 (up .1) & 4 stayed the about the same. The cold water up wells in the East & then travels west.

CPC Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Ni�a conditions is possible during the next 3 months. Same as last 4 weeks.
The # that counts is region 3&4, that principal (now) # .2, same as last week, now conditions are neutral.



The ESPI rose from -.96 to -.60 for the last weeks for the last 30 days.

We may see a little more warming of ENSO in the next few weeks. Plenty of cold water under there, don't expect an escape from Neutral.
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Weather News What Not

Updated: 7:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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