Skyepony's WunderBlog

Weather News

By: Skyepony, 4:17 PM GMT on February 25, 2007

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No Tornado Warning in Georgia Town ~ City officals decided not to turn it on at the last minute...

Tornado may have blown old check from Alabama to Georgia

Smog is changing the face of Earth's water cycle

Insurance companies are asked to justify rates (Texas)

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WA cyclone Jacob follows deadly George

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
..........Wind & Sea Threat.......................Rip Current...................Fire weather



Lightning....................................Seve re Hail.....................................Severe Winds............................................. ...Tornados



These will update automatically with conditions.

These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive




Tonight heavy lingering fog

Mon- Tues nice & dry 3-5� ↑ normal.

Wed - Friday is our next chance of 30% rain. Best chance is Friday on the north 1/2 of FL



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


SURFACE MAP

surface map legend

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Southern Hemisphere


17S George gone
Jacob 40kts 984mb threating to make landfall pretty close to where Goerge just did.

95S 30kts 1000mb~ This will most likely be named soon. Headed toward Madagasgar
96P gone
97 gone
98S 15kt 1006mb
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Updated March 5th~

Weekly ENSO discussion

They says we have ENSO neutral conditions. They say a transition from neutral to La Nina is possible withing the next 3 months.

The anomily for NDJ is 1.1. Nov was the peak & OND was 1.1 as well, Jan average itself is +.5 ~ it would have to dive really hard for DJF to average us to an offical neutral.

Anomilies are -.2 in regions 3, -.1 in region 3,4. -.4 in region 1,2 (a change of .8 in one week) And +.5 in region 4.

The # that counts is region 3&4, that principal (now) # stayed the same at -.1 this past week. Current condition is neutral. For the Neutral to be offical it has got to come from the average of 3 months. So offically it most likely would be atleast March for it to be offical neutral ENSO conditions.

The ESPI jumped from -.04 to -.30 for the last 30 days ( in the last week)... Good bit of cold still lurking below the surface.



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Weather News

Updated: 8:03 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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Horses that were Stranded in the Netherlands

By: Skyepony, 8:48 PM GMT on February 05, 2007

Back in November of 2006 I posted several articles about the 100+ horses stranded by the floods in the Netherlands. We got word they were rescued but to see it is awespiring...

Remember the horses that were trapped for 3 days on a tiny piece of land in wind
and rain in the Netherlands? It had the nation mesmerized, watching about 100 horses
huddle against the wind and watching 18 of them die. First firemen, then the
Dutch army tried to rescue them, both unsuccessfully.


Four women on horseback rode out to the rescue. Here's a video of it.....

THE SOUND BEGINS ABOUT 58 SECONDS AFTER THE START..... GOOD VOLUME .......

ENJOY......

It is about 6 1/2 minutes long.

Click here to watch!!!
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Get your radio already:)

The WFTV deal of supplying discounted radios at publix quickly sold out. Brevard didn't get any in the 1st shipment but ours are coming, as are more for other areas.. I checked this out, great radio with SAME technoligy & you can't get it any cheaper on line. Highly recommend.

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
..........Wind & Sea Threat.......................Rip Current...................Fire weather..........Excessive Cold


Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive




Sunday gets windy (↑ to 30kt) infront of next system (bad fire day possible, small boating is out), chance of rain returns & builds with the best chance Monday, Tuesday & North. Temps probibly be in the 80's.

Tonight we have a chance for Thunderstorms across central FL... Monday daytime west central could see some hail East central could see damaging straight line winds & hail..

NWS is having troubles this morning (all of them). You can find your hazardous, if you live in Fl, here.


Next chance of significant weather event is Fri- Sat.
.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


SURFACE MAP

surface map legend

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W Pac
98W 15kts 1006mb~ they really should take this down

Southern Hemisphere

97S~GAMEDE ~ 95kts 949mb~stengthened heading toward N Madagascar
98S~Humba~ 70kts 972mb~ What a name
90S~gone
new~ 91P 15kts 1006mb
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ENSO took a dive

ENSO update~ It actually came out the 16th, guess they wanted their 3 day weekend.

Synopsis: Subsurface contitions & recent forecasts indicate the possible development of La Nina during the last 1/2 of the year.

The anomily for NDJ is 1.1. Nov was the peak & OND was 1.1 as well, Jan average itself is +.5 ~ it would have to dive really hard for DJF to average us to an offical neutral.

Anomilies are 0 in regions 3,4. +.4 in region 1,2 And +.6 in region 4. SST Anomilies decreased in all regions last week. +.5 & ↑ is El Nino.

The # that counts is region 3&4, that principal (now) # went from +.2 to 0 this past week. Current condition is neutral. For the Neutral to be offical it has got to come from the average of 3 months. So offically it most likely would be atleast March for it to be offical neutral ENSO conditions.

The ESPI jumped from .29 to -.07 for the last 30 days ( in the last week)...


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Flood Animals

Updated: 8:04 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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FEMA steps up/ NWS Ascesses

By: Skyepony, 6:16 PM GMT on February 03, 2007

LADY LAKE, Fla. This morning's news

WESH
WFTV

Good news on the FEMA front! Declerations all signed by the presedent. Ice, comfort stations, MRE's, generators, grants, loans, clean up funds & etc are now available.

The assistance, to be coordinated by FEMA, can include grants to help pay for temporary housing, home repairs and other serious disaster-related expenses. Low-interest loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration also will be available to cover residential and business losses not fully compensated by insurance.

Federal funding also is available to state and eligible local governments and certain private nonprofit organization on a cost-sharing basis in Lake, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia counties for debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance. In addition, federal funding is available on a cost-sharing basis for hazard mitigation measures statewide.

Paulison named Jesse Munoz as the Federal Coordinating Officer for federal recovery operations in the affected area. Munoz said that damage surveys are continuing in other areas, and more counties and additional forms of assistance may be designated after the assessments are complete.

The Agency said that residents and business owners who sustained losses in the designated counties can begin applying for assistance tomorrow by registering online at http://www.fema.gov or by calling 1-800-621-FEMA(3362) or 1-800-462-7585 (TTY) for the hearing and speech impaired. The toll-free telephone numbers will operate from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. (local time) seven days a week until further notice.




I'm in total awe of how the clean up machine is running here. We've had alot of practice... To see the best of 2004 still out there like Craig Fugate, teamed up with the replacements of what once, was FEMA trash, openly discussioning it all with the seasoned Sen Nelson & our still slightly shocked but responding Gov Crist~ you get a sense that these people know the voters want someone that's gonna pull together in a disaster, quickly.

Media wise, the FEMA news was on at noon but hasn't hit the wires! Sadly media in my opinion fell on it's face this morning with many stories of former FEMA director Michael Brown, talking about these tornados, though there's a shocking side...He was in Volusia about to speak with our county emergancy preparedness people. He's doing this for a living now!


A few ways to help, don't drive in the areas affected & give blood or money.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 PM EST SAT FEB 3 2007

...THE LATEST FIELD REPORT FROM BOTH THE LAKE COUNTY AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY SURVEY TEAMS REGARDING YESTERDAYS KILLER TORNADO EVENT...

...DAMAGE SURVEYS NOW INDICATE THAT AT LEAST THREE TORNADOES ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY CONTINUES IN BOTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES WHERE EXPERT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS ARE
ASSESSING THE DEVASTATION. THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE LAKE COUNTY
TEAM IS THAT THE TORNADO WHICH RIPPED THROUGH THE VILLAGES AND LADY
LAKE WAS HIGH END EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 155 TO 160 MPH. THE FIRST OF
THREE TORNADOES INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN SUMTER COUNTY NEAR
WILDWOOD AND THE VILLAGES AND THEN CROSSED OVER INTO LAKE COUNTY TO
STRIKE LADY LAKE WHERE THE FIRST EVENT FATALITIES OCCURRED.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE 7 KNOWN FATALITIES IN THE LADY LAKE AREA.

THE VILLAGES/LADY LAKE TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 1...HAS BEEN
CLASSIFIED AS AN EF-3 TORNADO WHICH CAUSED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES
WHERE MOST WALLS COLLAPSED EXCEPT FOR THEIR INTERIOR ROOMS...AS WELL
AS LARGE TREES BECAME DEBARKED WITH ONLY THE STUBS OF THE LARGEST
BRANCHES REMAINING. MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THIS
TORNADO WAS ONE-QUARTER MILE WIDE DURING ITS MOST FIERCE MOMENTS.
THE TORNADO LIFTED EAST OF LADY LAKE WITH AN APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH
OF ABOUT 15 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LADY LAKE AT 320 AM.
AGAIN...7 KNOWN FATALITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TORNADO.

THE LAKE MACK/DELAND TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER 2...WAS ALSO HIGH END
EF-3 WITH WINDS OF 160 TO 165 MPH. IT WAS ALSO ONE-QUARTER MILE
WIDE. IT RESULTED IN COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES...AND
CAUSED LARGE TREES TO BECOME DEBARKED. THE ESTIMATED TORNADO WINDS
NEAR LAKE MACK PEAKED AT 165 MPH WHICH RESULTED IN 10
FATALITIES...AND 150 TO 155 MPH WINDS AT FOREST DRIVE AND STATE ROAD
44 WHICH RESULTED IN 3 MORE FATALITIES. A TOTAL OF 13 KNOWN
FATALITIES OCCURRED WITH THIS DEADLY TORNADO. THE TORNADO CONTINUED
ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE NEAR HONTOON ISLAND...CROSSING INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY...AND STRIKING DELAND AS A HIGH END EF-2 TORNADO WITH WINDS
OF 130 TO 135 MPH AS REPORTED BY THE VOLUSIA COUNTY TEAM. IT WAS
ONE-EIGHTH MILE WIDE AND LIFTED EAST OF INTERSTATE 4 NEAR THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. THE PATH LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 22
MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK LAKE MACK AT 348 AM AND DELAND AT 402 AM.

THE NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PONCE INLET TORNADO...TORNADO NUMBER THREE...
HAS BEEN INITIALLY RATED AS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 105
MPH. THE TORNADO UPLIFTED ROOFS ON MANY STRUCTURES...CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF ROOFING MATERIAL...THE COLLAPSE OF CHIMNEYS...
AND COLLAPSING GARAGE DOORS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE OCCURRED TO PORCHES
AND CAR PORTS. THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 44 IN NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND MOVED THROUGH PONCE
INLET. THE PATH LENGTH IS ABOUT 5 MILES. THE TORNADO STRUCK PONCE
INLET AT 427 AM.

THIS STATEMENT IS ONLY AN INITIAL REPORTING FROM THE SURVEY TEAMS.
IN THE COMING DAYS...CONSIDERABLE EFFORT WILL BE INVESTED TO ENSURE
THAT THIS HISTORICAL EVENT IS ACCURATELY DOCUMENTED.

A WORD ABOUT THE NEW ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) TORNADO SCALE...THE
EF-SCALE WAS DEVELOPED TO BETTER ASSESS WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WIDE VARIETY OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...FROM SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOMES
TO INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS TO FRAMED ONE OR TWO FAMILY HOMES...AND MANY
MORE. THIS SCALE IS CONSIDERED A DAMAGE SCALE...WHEREAS THE
TRADITIONAL FUJITA SCALE (F-SCALE) WAS MORE OF A WIND SPEED SCALE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NEW EF-SCALE...PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITE:

HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FSCALE

$$

DWS/NWS MELBOURNE FL


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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
..........Wind & Sea Threat.......................Rip Current...................Fire weather..........Excessive Cold


Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

South East graphics.
Watching the low temps




Scattered fast moving showers continue, as well as the below climo temps through Monday afternoon. Monday night should be cold, freezing & below toward the N is possible.

Then drier but cold air hangs til thurs.

Main short term hazards are sea & fire.




Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Southern Hemisphere
new~98S~ 15kts 1006mb
97S 15kts 1006mb
11PNoname~ 30kts 1000mb up 3mb in pressure
95S 25kts 1002mb even less organized
Dora 70kts 972mb shear takes a bite




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ENSO make another slight move toward Neutral~ as expected...

elninometer



I couldn't get the ENSO update in PDF, powerpoint worked.

Interesting, refuring to the ESPI ~ rain over equator area of the Pacific~ anomalisly low as well as the lack of persistant clouds leading the high latitudes like the USA, to be feeling hardly any effects, since it isn't affeting our circulation patterns much....now a weak El Ni�o.

A quickning & now a majority to the model forecasts, neutral conditions begin during March-May.

+.3 in region 1&2. +.7 in 3&4.

The # that counts is region 3&4, the # +.7 & that gives the principal (now) #. Neutral has got to come from the average of 3 months before it's offical. So offically it most likely would be atleast March for it to be offical.

I think we very well may see neutral conditions (principal~ "now") well before June. Sometime in Febuary wouldn't suprise me. Monday is the next update...I expect to see more of a drop this coming week.

The ESPI took a dive now -.17 for the last 30 days... signals a cold side of neutral ENSO is on it'a way.



Tornado

Updated: 8:08 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 81.3 °F
Dew Point: 66.6 °F
Humidity: 61%
Wind: 8.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 6:39 PM EDT on April 24, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 70.7 °F
Dew Point: 38.6 °F
Humidity: 31%
Wind: 1.5 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 6:39 PM EDT on April 24, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 68.0 °F
Dew Point: 39.0 °F
Humidity: 34%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 5:42 PM EDT on April 24, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations