Skyepony's WunderBlog

Storms for Storm Clean Up

By: Skyepony, 3:16 PM GMT on December 28, 2006

LADY LAKE, Fla. (AP) - Search and rescue operations resumed amid fresh rain at daybreak Saturday across a swath of central Florida devastated by tornado-bearing thunderstorms that killed at least 20 people.

Curfews had been in effect overnight as displaced residents slept in shelters.

The storms struck early Friday, spawning a tornado that ripped roofs and walls off single family homes and threw mobile homes off their foundations.

Thirteen people had been confirmed dead in the Paisley area plus seven in Lady Lake, about 30 miles to the west, emergency officials said. The victims included teenagers and at least one child, according to authorities and witnesses who helped pull bodies from the debris.

State emergency management chief Craig Fugate said determining the exact number of dead could take days, and the priority was finding survivors who may be trapped under rubble.


I had a chance to watch a bit live. All the local news are on contunious coverage. WESH is streaming live on the internet.

Interesting was Governer Christ talking to Sen. Nelson. As long as it meet the criteria, as long as Bush signs it, FEMA trailers could be pulling in tonight. Instant federal aid should be coming, we've talked to them already. They were very optimistic. Nelson assured FEMA was all fixed now. Christ looked pretty shocked by the damage.

Our emergency responce & utilities teams looks like a well oiled machine. It's amazing, this state has had too much practice. Thank You GA~ sending people so quick & resources.

A few ways to help, don't drive in the areas affected & give blood or money.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
134 PM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 N ORMOND BEACH 29.39N 81.06W
02/02/2007 AMZ550 FL AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN AT OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY AND WALTER BOARDMAN ROAD.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0143 AM HAIL 5 N DAYTONA BEACH 29.28N 81.03W
02/02/2007 E0.25 INCH VOLUSIA FL AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT MILE MARKER 275.

0315 AM TORNADO LADY LAKE 28.93N 81.93W
02/02/2007 LAKE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY REPORT. DOWNED TREES, POWER LINES AND DAMAGE
TO STRUCTURES IN LADY LAKE AREA VICINITY HWY 27 AND OAK
HILL ROAD

0315 AM TORNADO LADY LAKE 28.93N 81.93W
02/02/2007 LAKE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 3 FATAL ***

0320 AM TORNADO THE VILLAGES 28.95N 81.94W
02/02/2007 LAKE FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

POSSIBLE TORNADO. LAKE COUNTY E. M. REPORTS EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES IN THE VILLAGES AND LADY
LAKE AREAS WITH AT LEAST ONE POSSIBLE FATALITY.
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN LAKE MACK NEAR HWY 42 AND
44.

0345 AM TORNADO PAISLEY 28.98N 81.54W
02/02/2007 LAKE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 11 FATAL ***

0400 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE DE LAND 29.07N 81.26W
02/02/2007 VOLUSIA FL BROADCAST MEDIA

POSSIBLE TORNADO. PRELIMINARY REPORT. INTERSTATE 4 AT
STATE ROAD 44 CLOSED BOTH LANES DUE TO MULTIPLE VEHICLE
ACCIDENT INCLUDING LARGE TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCKS OVER
TURNED.

0400 AM TSTM WND DMG NEW SMYRNA BEACH 29.03N 80.92W
02/02/2007 VOLUSIA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT NSB AIRPORT.

0530 AM TSTM WND DMG ORLANDO 28.50N 81.37W
02/02/2007 ORANGE FL AMATEUR RADIO

1500 FOOT TOWER DOWN IN ORLANDO AREA SERVING WCFB RADIO.
TIME OF OCCURRENCE ESTIMATED. PRELIMINARY DATA AS OF THIS
TIME.

0530 AM TORNADO DE LAND 29.04N 81.30W
02/02/2007 VOLUSIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 3 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. LAKE BEARSFORD AREA.
SEVERAL MINOR INJURIES AS OF THIS TIME.

0535 AM TORNADO DE LAND 29.04N 81.30W
02/02/2007 VOLUSIA FL PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO. APPLEWOOD APARTMENTS. COMPLEX EXTENDS
FROM SOUTH END OF AMELIA AVE TO US 92. MAJOR DAMAGE.

0535 AM TORNADO DE LAND 29.04N 81.30W
02/02/2007 VOLUSIA FL CO-OP OBSERVER

POSSIBLE TORNADO. DE LAND WASTE TREATMENT PLANT. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS, VENTS, TREES. DOORS AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF
SOME BUILDINGS.

0940 AM TORNADO 2 S GRANT 27.90N 80.53W
02/02/2007 BREVARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC VISUAL REPORT OF TORNADO ON GROUND VIEWED FROM US
HWY 1.


&&

$$

MRT

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
..........Wind & Sea Threat.......................Rip Current...................Fire weather..........Excessive Cold


Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

South East graphics.
Watching the low temps




THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...
WILL RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS.

THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE TORNADO RAVAGED AREAS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD BLOW EXISTING DEBRIS
AROUND.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY...THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RUNOFF AND
PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.



Weekend looks colder with scattered rain.




Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
I'll update this section later
Southern Hemisphere
97S 15kts 1006mb
96P 30kts 1000mb showing promise
95S 30kts 1000mb probibly be named soon

Dora 115kts 927mb Oh My


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
ENSO make another slight move toward Neutral~ as expected...

elninometer




I couldn't get the ENSO update in PDF, powerpoint worked.

Interesting, refuring to the ESPI ~ rain over equator area of the Pacific~ anomalisly low as well as the lack of persistant clouds leading the high latitudes like the USA, to be feeling hardly any effects, since it isn't affeting our circulation patterns much....now a weak El Ni�o.

A quickning & now a majority to the model forecasts, neutral conditions begin during March-May.

+.3 in region 1&2. +.7 in 3&4.

The # that counts is region 3&4, the # +.7 & that gives the principal (now) #. Neutral has got to come from the average of 3 months before it's offical. So offically it most likely would be atleast March for it to be offical.

I think we very well may see neutral conditions (principal~ "now") well before June. Sometime in Febuary wouldn't suprise me. Monday is the next update...I expect to see more of a drop this coming week.

The ESPI took a dive now -.17 for the last 30 days... signals a cold side of neutral ENSO is on it'a way.



Tornado

Updated: 7:54 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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