Skyepony's WunderBlog

ECFL Weather & El Ni´┐Żo update

By: Skyepony, 4:07 AM GMT on November 28, 2006

ENSO Update






From the weekly discussion...continue throught Jan- March, weaken in April & May.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Local Hazards
......Wind & Sea Threat.............................lightning...... ..........................hail.................... tornados....


severe wind......................................flash flood..........................................wat er spouts


Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

South East graphics.
looking for rain


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
938 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE TO USERS: A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TEAM IS ENROUTE TO DELAND
AND LEESBURG THIS MORNING TO ASSESS STORM DAMAGE FROM YESTERDAY.
REFER TO OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT (LSR) PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

ALSO...A SURVEY CONDUCTED YESTERDAY IN DAYTONA BEACH DETERMINED THAT
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DAMAGE WERE CAUSED BY A TORNADO RATED F-2 ON
THE FUJITA SCALE WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 120 MPH.

REST OF TODAY...STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND A BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EC FL AT MID MORNING. THIS OCCURRING WITH THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET AND
5H TROF AXIS/VORT ENERGY STILL BACK TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL TEMP
CLIMB EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND SOME
COLD ADVECTION STARTING TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. ZONES/GRIDS WILL HAVE A FEW
TWEAKS AS TRENDS ARE INDICATING BUT NO SIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EST TUE DEC 26 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM TORNADO 3 N DE LAND 29.08N 81.30W
12/25/2006 VOLUSIA FL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 7 INJ *** INTIAL STORM SURVEY TEAM REPORTS F2 TORNADO
STRUCK NORTH SIDE OF DELAND NEAR HIGHWAY 17 AND 11
INTERSECTION YESTERDAY. WIND ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 120 TO
150 MPH RANGE. DAMAGE IS SEVERE IN SOME PLACES WITH TOTAL
DESTRUCTION OF MANUFACTURED HOMES. AN UPDATED SURVEY
REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER TODAY. TEAM WILL NOW HEAD TO
LEESBURG AREA. INJURY INFORMATION PRELIMINARY.


&&

$$

BCH





Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

Southern Hemisphere
Bondo~ 60kts, over land.


90S 15kts, 1006mb....Not looking so healthy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

ENSO Tropics

Updated: 7:53 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

1 Invest. & a Typhoon

By: Skyepony, 4:02 PM GMT on November 19, 2006

But of course the topic of comments is open...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Get a quick & easy note to congress to extend the solar insentives beyond 2007. I don't know about you but I hadn't got my solar water heater in yet. On average a solar water heater cuts your power bill by 1/4...The current insentive for water heater is $500. There are several other insentives offered, some very by state.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
When is it gonna rain???...


Check out the local in it's entirety...new feature, anything shortened or of weather terminoligy you can click on for definition!

Today should be a little warmer than yesterday...inland as high as 80's N coastal regions cooler due to the SST in the 60's. Occational coastal showers will persist today as like the last 2 days but should end tommarrow...Recieved a trace here so far..just enough to remember what rain smells like.

As for the up coming front that is sweeping the country...Rain chances begin friday for central FL, N FL has a better chance of rain then here. It's not expected at this point to be severe through FL, but to stall & wash out over central & south FL.


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Atlantic
95L is gone!

The Indian Ocean
93A is gone!
92A is Gone!

West Pacific~ no name 24W is now Internationally named Durian, Philippine's named Reming (thanks HadesGodWyvern) As I eluded to in Master's blog before the models came out, we may see some rapid intensification with this one...Forecasted cone of doom has shifted slightly to the south, closer to the capitol. 45kts, 991mb~
27/0233 UTC 10.2N 139.1E T2.5/3.0 DURIAN -- West Pacific Ocean



Southern Hemisphere~
Yani is gone!
93S...nearly gone 15kts & 1006mb
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

Blast from the past - 1635 hurricane ... It hit the NE shortly after Thanksgiving Day. Some documents were recently passed on to NOAA for arciving.

Tropics

Updated: 7:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

World tropics & FL weather

By: Skyepony, 8:29 PM GMT on November 07, 2006

But of course the topic of comments is open...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Get a quick & easy note to congress to extend the solar insentives beyond 2007. I don't know about you but I hadn't got my solar water heater in yet. On average a solar water heater cuts your power bill by 1/4...The current insentive for water heater is $500. There are several other insentives offered, some very by state.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
How cold will it go...


Check out the local in it's entirety...new feature, anything shortened or of weather terminoligy you can click on for definition!

957 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES HOW
EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE STRENGTH...PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF BOTH
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WEATHER FEATURES. NONETHELESS...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A GALE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA...GEORGIA OR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND BEACH
EROSION.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

KELLY


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

TD 21Ein the Eastern Pacific looks healthy healthy enough for a picture...

Sergio is now a TS.
THE 700 AM PST POSITION...14.2 N...102.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.



AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 30N54W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN
48W AND 51W...PROBABLY MUCH MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND NOT
THERE BECAUSE OF THE WAVE.

CMC is still gun ho on a sw Caribbean storm

The Indian Ocean has an Invest~90A 1006mb & 15kts. Unchanged for 3 days.

Invest & where we like to see them Southern Hemisphere! Good start..1004mb, 20kts. Same as yesterday
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

Tropics

Updated: 7:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Local Weather

Light Rain
72 °F
Light Rain

Skyepony's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 70.7 °F
Dew Point: 70.3 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the South
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 5:25 AM EST on November 26, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 41.5 °F
Dew Point: 36.8 °F
Humidity: 83%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 5:25 AM EST on November 26, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 41.0 °F
Dew Point: 40.0 °F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 4:12 AM EST on November 26, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations