Skyepony's WunderBlog

Local Gale & World Tropics

By: Skyepony, 3:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2006

For the locals who have intrests in the area NOAA wants comments on the tropical cyclone hazards graphics before November 15th. Here's more on the product. Make comments for Wind Risk Graphic here & comments on the Threat graphics here. I was just gonna post the following but they go indepth a little. Shocked at the question ~ is it appropriate for us to be supplying these graphics.

I thought these graphics were great during Wilma & Ernesto. They couldn't be simpler to read, they're colorful & hot link easily where I could further diseminate the info in my blog. I think all the local NWS in hurricane prone areas should have them.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

If you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
Watching the wind


518 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR THE EAST COAST. BOATERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LARGER INLAND LAKES TODAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
BUILD SEAS OVER 8 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF
WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS POUNDING THE COASTLINE TODAY.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON TODAY...AND STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SEVERAL HIGH TIDES WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
EROSION IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE ROUGH SURF CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING
CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD NOT ENTER THE SURF.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEAS TO 10 FEET.
HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS VENTURING OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MID WEEK BUT THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

VOLKMER

Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

93L is gone ~ The N Atlantic looks dead, observe the shear map above...

The E Pacific has an interesting area that may become an invest. Could be 3 or more or less days til we see something more than a depression. The models are less convincing then they were, the ITCZ is at 10� or less & shear is a little higher then before. Got some good convection rolling off Panama that may join up with the energy from once 93L, we'll have to wait & see.

Central Pacific's invest invest is gone.

Other invests include two for the W. Pacific, both look poor, 90W looking slightly better todaY.

S Hemisphere...has two invests...98S & a new one 99P.

There's CIMARON in the w. Pacific this one bombed as I thought it might, made landfall in the NE Phillippines as a Cat 5. Now weakend to 20kts & 1004mb it has done a little loop & is now forcasted went SW & is now a shadow of it's former self. Here's the Philippines: NDCC media update - Situational Report No. 2 re effects of Typhoon "Paeng" (Cimaron). I'd say it's the best looking storm in the world right now...shpws how dead the tropics are.

The FSU model page wasn't working, here is an alturnative link to most the models.

Tropics

Updated: 7:50 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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EC Florida Locals NOAA wants comments...

By: Skyepony, 4:25 AM GMT on October 02, 2006

For the locals who have intrests in the area NOAA wants comments on the tropical cyclone hazards graphics before November 15th. Here's more on the product. Make comments for Wind Risk Graphic here & comments on the Threat graphics here. I was just gonna post the following but they go indepth a little. Shocked at the question ~ is it appropriate for us to be supplying these graphics.

I thought these graphics were great during Wilma & Ernesto. They couldn't be simpler to read, they're colorful & hot link easily where I could further diseminate the info in my blog. I think all the local NWS in hurricane prone areas should have them.

NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products

NWS was having some internet site troubles...
Kinda fond of the new graphic for now, if you miss the close up of the local click here.
Here is a good link to the South East graphics.
Keeping an eye out for rain...
12 hrs probibility (%) chance of rain...


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Surfers & Surge
*If your missing the cool wave watch graphic, click here.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin...excellent WV of the big picture.
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Navy site~ good to keep up with invests

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.
PROBIBILITY MAP


SHEAR


STEERING CURRENTS






I'm back. Another great adventure, short of a total tent flooding. That blob in the gulf gave us several inches of rain Monday night when TWC had the area for a 1/4 inch that night. Lesson learned...don't spray an ageing tent with scotchgaurd. It seemed to remove all waterproofing.

Sifting though a bunch of pics from the trip. Uploading some new ones here from Pisgah Forest in NC & the Swannee River (enjoyed some Magnolia Fest).

Not only did I get to see Trey put on an awesome show in Asheville, I happen to run into to him outside the hotel:) Here's a clip from the show I was at, the song sand, Trey is just going off here. The video starts out a bit fuzzy & gets clearer. Very well could have been the dude next to me that shot this.

As the storms in the S. Hemisphere died away, the burner has been turned up on the Northern 1/2.

In the Alantic, invest 93L has crossed the Antillies & now in the Caribbean. Ramsdis has a good view of it. 25kts & 1009mb, according to navy~ It's up 5kts. The 12Zcmc is the only one developing it & over the Bahamas.


Other invests include one for the Central & west Pacific as well as one in the Indian Ocean.

There's CIMARON in the w. Pacific this one might bomb, 48 hrs ago it was named an TD now at 105kts, 938mb, aimed for land.


East Pacific has TD 18E, 1009mb, 25kts & is expected to move out to sea. It's convection has been blown away.

Most the models are calling for a cut off low from this last front, east of FL, maybe N Bahamas, in a few days. Also & the gfs has been hinting at this a few days now & a few others are jumping on board with a small intense looking storm for South FL or south of there or Keys or developing in very South GOM & moving toward SFL at the end of the 144hr run.

For the horse folk that frequent, how about the riot at the Tenneesse Walking Horse National Celebration? 150 people being held back by 50 police as they get their point across that the 6 of the 9 horses the federal inspectors failed for soaring be allowed to show in the final Campionship class or none will show. The stewards cancelled the class, rescedualed for Thanksgiving weekend & has now cancelled that too.


Tropics

Updated: 7:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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Elevation: 29 ft
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Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
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