Skyepony's WunderBlog

East Central FL Tropical Weather

By: Skyepony, 12:19 PM GMT on August 17, 2006



NHC Tropical Disscusion

click on the box for local hurricane graphics & info.


Local text Products
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006


.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...FRONT REACHING NE-SW THROUGH C GA AND FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS
MORNING. BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF APPROACHES EASTERN SEA BOARD.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF EC FL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. MOISTURE QUITE DEEP OVER THE
REGION WITH WED EVE SOUNDINGS IN C FL IN THE 2.1-2.2 IN PWAT RANGE.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END LIKELY RANGE FOR TODAY WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME DIURNAL
HEATING AND PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE. MAX TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

TONIGHT...PREFRONTAL TROF/MOISTURE CONVERGENCT BAND WILL REACH OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS FRONTAL BAND SAGS INTO NC PENINSULA. HAVE
DISTRIBUTED POPS ACCORDINGLY...RANGING FROM ISOLD N TO SCT IN THE
SOUTH.

FRI-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
DOWN THE PENINSULA AND AT THE SAME TIME IS UNDERCUT BY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS
RESULTS IN A WESTERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM...PUSH INLAND WHERE THEY WILL
COLLIDE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST ARA WITH THE ADVANCING
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THEN MOVE BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH FRI/SAT.

MON-WED...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WHILE SHIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA BY WED. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW STRONG ENOUGH AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUFFICIENT FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS. EARLY SEA BREEZE
FORMATION SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE MORNING. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORMS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD
BE WEATHER FREE. LATEST GFS RUN IS INDICATING THAT A DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT OR JUST
BELOW THEIR SEASONAL 30/40 DAYS AND 20S LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS GRADUALLY DECLINING WITH
SWELLS SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND
HIGHLIGHT ROUGH SURF IN THE HWO. ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATING SWELL PERIOD QUITE LONG AT 15 SECONDS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE RIP CURRENT DANGER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
COAST FROM THE MAINLAND TODAY/TONIGHT. FOR FRI-MON...OFFSHORE WINDS
FRI/SAT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. SUN/MON RIDGE
AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGE AXIS CLEARS THE AREA. LATEST GFS RUN BACKS
OFF ON THE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (HAZARDOUS SEAS) FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER
INLET OUT TO 60NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WIMMER


Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast

All Local NWS Text Products

Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar

NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.

GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.

FSU Model page

(click to make it bigger)


Shear loop .

Click map for current shear map bigger.


Florence has become extratropical...Hit Newfoundland today She's still bring us waves.

Credit NOAA
Click here to get interactive it, to get forecast out to 180hrs..single frame or animated loop & change map region.


92L is gone from the navy site RIP~ NOT...& rose from the dead as 93L less than a day later. It is Hurricane Gordon.
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006

...GORDON STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...

THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...30.6 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Watching the interaction with the ULL to the NE...behind this is a building high that is suppose to weaken the ULL...It's proved interesting, Gordon has strengthed so he's scaring the ULL away as it is weakend...Today the ULL got caught in the middle of a triangle of Gordon, Florence & the high...it's no more.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 14 2006

...HELENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N...38.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

That's what's on spagetti models at the moment...There has been a general trend of the models moving it farther westward befor a recurve. At this point Bermuda is at greater risk than a few days ago. Helena has been slow to organize, her monsterous girth will slow her even more. The longer she stays a TS the farther she should go west. Also the 1st trough that was planning to grab her looks to be trying to break off a low east of Northern Fl. This would shorten the trough enough to miss her. Should be more troughs to follow...Don't freak yet:)


There is a blob on the NE side of the Windward Islands ~ got the inverted V shape happening. Watch on...

Back to the blob tryin to form east of Jacksonville. Tailend of a front that moved through today...surface observations in the area. Saw as low as 1004 mb in the area earlier. 1010.7 when it crossed here. Probibly be an invest moving NE at best, though one model formed it to a TD.

Hurricane

Updated: 7:44 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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East Central FL Tropical Weather

By: Skyepony, 5:38 AM GMT on August 02, 2006


credit NOAA

NHC Tropical Disscusion

If this box lights up, click on it for local hurricane grafics & info.

Local text Products
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...MODELS PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE BUT GIVEN THEIR TRACK
RECORD THIS MONTH...AM A BIT APPREHENSIVE TO BITE OFF ON GOING WITH
THE LIKELY POPS THEY ARE SHOWING. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
MOVING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BAND FROM SOUTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST BEHIND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N 78W. ALSO WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG BAND.

WOULD FAVOR HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. NOT
CONFIDENT IN ETA/NAM/WRF SHOWING HIGHER MOISTURE BAND WORKING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL MARINE ACTIVITY FROM
NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA TO OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST...SO THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY THE GFS LOOKS LEGITIMATE.

THINK THAT 40-50 POPS WILL DO FOR NOW...WITH LOWEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST AND IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. STEERING FLOW LOOKS WEAK BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO KEEP SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY NEAR I-95 INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS (AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE A LOT OF
RAINFALL THOUGH AS IT HAS BEEN A DRY MONTH SO FAR).

TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH STANDARD SMALL EVENING POP...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LEAD TO ACTIVITY BEING MORE PROLONGED THAN NORMAL.

FRI-SAT...PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE REMNANTS OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF
FL FRI. COMBINATION OF INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD PRODUCE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MAV POPS (NEAR 60
PERCENT) STILL SEEM TOO HIGH FRI...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS.

SUN-WED...AXIS OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LACK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN FALL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. FEEDBACK OF THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE. GFS/ECM SUGGEST A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MAY
SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH TUE. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THESE WAVES
HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERDONE BY THE MODELS THIS SEASON AND WILL KEEP
POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDWEEK MAY
BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE STATE...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....HIRSCH

Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

Local NWS Surf Zone Forecast

All Local NWS Text Products

Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.

CLICK ON THESE TO ENLARGE




Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar

NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.

GOES-East WV Imagery Loop - Atlantic Basin

NASA visible close up of 93L

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.

FSU Model page

Shear loop .
Click map for current shear map bigger.


Recon
Hurricane Hunters
decoded vortex
WU decoded RECCO reports

Hurricane

Updated: 7:44 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 73.8 °F
Dew Point: 73.4 °F
Humidity: 99%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 1:46 AM EDT on October 01, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 59.7 °F
Dew Point: 54.9 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
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APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
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Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 1:11 AM EDT on October 01, 2014

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