Skyepony's WunderBlog

Intense Hurricanes from Global Warming

By: Skyepony, 8:37 PM GMT on February 21, 2006

Here are 2 studies I had ran across~ reported on the United States Enviromental Protection Agency's News & Events site
Study Finds Large Increase in Strong Hurricanes

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased by 80 percent worldwide during the past 35 years, according to a study in the 16 September 2005 issue of Science (vol. 309, pp. 1844-1846). Hurricanes in these two highest storm categories, with winds of 135 miles per hour or greater, now account for roughly 35 percent of all hurricanes, up from around 20 percent in the 1970s.

The trend toward more-frequent strong hurricanes occurred during a period when sea-surface temperatures rose globally, with increases ranging from 0.5 to 1 degree Fahrenheit during the hurricane season. But the researchers found no global long-term trend in the overall number of hurricanes, and the total number of hurricanes per year has actually declined in most of the world since the 1990s, at a time when sea-surface temperatures have risen the most. Furthermore there was no increase in the intensity of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, just an increase in their number.

The relationship between sea-surface temperatures and hurricane behavior is complex, and the authors note that attributing the trends to global warming would require �a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes� in the climate system


Climate Change Expected to Lead to Stronger Hurricanes

A comprehensive new computer modeling study suggests that hurricanes will become more intense as the climate warms, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall. The study projects an average 6 percent increase in maximum hurricane winds by the year 2080, along with an 18 percent increase in the rate of precipitation within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of the storm�s core. The increase in intensity amounts to roughly a half step in the 5-category hurricane scale. These specific projections are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will increase by 1 percent per year (compounded) over the next 80 years, which is higher than the current rate of about 0.6 to 0.7 percent per year.

The study�s authors do not expect the changes in hurricane intensity to be detectable �for decades to come,� but warn that there may be a gradually increasing risk of highly destructive category 5 storms over the course of this century.

The study�s basic findings are consistent across nine different climate models and a range of characterizations of physical processes in a hurricane model, bolstering the conclusions. Previous studies based on input from one climate model had also shown a tendency toward stronger hurricanes in warmer climates, but it was unclear how much of this effect was due to assumptions in the model.

The authors, Thomas R. Knutson of NOAA�s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton, New Jersey) and Robert Tuleya of Old Dominion University (Norfolk, Virginia) did not explore whether climate change would affect the frequency of hurricanes. Past research on this question has been inconclusive, with conflicting results. Knutson and Tuleya�s findings are reported in the 15 September 2004 issue of the Journal of Climate (vol. 17, pp. 3477-3495).




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~ credit NWS,


oops~ can't easily get color key in here, so if your conserned about what shade is on your house ~ click here (the bright pink is red flag fire warning)

NOAA wants your comment by June 1, 2006 on a new percipition model product for US & PR. It was good in my opinion, added it to the favorites for next season. On the bottom there is a contact for your comments; good, bad & improvement ideas.

Weather Modification Bill There is now two versions. The second has been presented to senate~ contact your senators TODAY!

For or against these are the key state senators involved~ if you live in one of these states you have more affluence on the matter, but it never hurts to contact yours as they will have a vote:

California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming
Link to all state senators

My strongest reason for opposing this bill is the small committee that would be making weather modification decisions without the valuable input from many scientific fields as well as the public.

Update on IWIN termination~ could have a finally decision by March 1. If to be terminated~ no sooner than July 1.

Climate Change

Updated: 7:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

Weather News

By: Skyepony, 7:02 PM GMT on February 18, 2006

Vermont's maple production threatened by globial warming

Pretty interesting article~ More evidence of global warming is going to affect food suplies as the weather shifts.

Also, great to see a state stand up & begin to draft policies on global warming & the prevention of, using the research our country has done that the US government is discrediting.

Kansas is in deep with the drought, not looking good for the cattle

With La Nina going nowhere soon, these cows are gonna have to be culled.

Philippines disaster update

Looks too grim to discuss

California~ this weather is not helping your west nile situation

When ya get a warm winter it is important to vaccinate your horses against this disease twice a year.

The Glaciers are melting way quicker than we thought

It seems every initial forecast of how bad we've affected the earth is wrong cause we predicted the changes to be slower...ozone layer, global warming & now this..

------------------------------------------------- ----------

~ credit NWS,


oops~ can't easily get color key in here, so if your conserned about what shade is on your house ~ click here (the bright pink is red flag fire warning)

NOAA wants your comment by June 1, 2006 on a new percipition model product for US & PR. It was good in my opinion, added it to the favorites for next season. On the bottom there is a contact for your comments; good, bad & improvement ideas.

Weather Modification Bill There is now two versions. The second has been presented to senate~ contact your senators TODAY!

For or against these are the key state senators involved~ if you live in one of these states you have more affluence on the matter, but it never hurts to contact yours as they will have a vote:

California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming
Link to all state senators

My strongest reason for opposing this bill is the small committee that would be making weather modification decisions without the valuable input from many scientific fields as well as the public.

Update on IWIN termination~ could have a finally decision by March 1. If to be terminated~ no sooner than July 1.

Updated: 7:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

Permalink

Florida's Hazardous Weather Awareness Week~US Warning, Watches & Weather Modification

By: Skyepony, 8:12 PM GMT on February 08, 2006

It's Florida Hazardous Weather Awareness Week
here's the highlights of the huge PDF file above:

Lightning Safety Actions
■ Avoid open high ground and isolated large trees.
■ Avoid water � swimming pools, lakes and rivers, beaches and boats.
■ Seek shelter inside a building or an automobile but not a
convertible or golf cart.
■ Stay away from doors, windows and metal objects such as pipes and faucets.
■ Stay off corded telephones and away from electrical devices.
■ You can tell how far away lightning is by counting the
seconds between seeing the lightning fl ash and hearing
thunder. For every five seconds you count, lightning is 1 mile away
~More teenagers (especially boys) are killed by lightning than all other age groups combined.


Rip currents
signs should be posted as you enter Fl~ If you feel your being swept out to sea~ Swim Parallel to the shore. Sharks feeed dawn & dusk. NEVER SWIM ALONE.

Tornados
Which Way did they go?
Large, dangerous springtime tornadoes almost always move from the west to the east in Florida. But smaller tornadoes that form in the midsummer months along the sea breeze can move in almost any direction. The same is true for tornadoes that form as a tropical storm or hurricane approaches the state. Be especially watchful for tornadoes when a hurricane or tropical storm moves across Florida from the west, such as with Hurricanes Wilma or Charley.

Tornado safety actions
When a tornado watch is issued, be prepared to take action.
■ When a tornado warning is issued or a tornado is imminent, go to the inner most room on the lowest level away from windows. Interior closets, halls and bathrooms are good places to go.
■ If you do not have time to get to the lowest level, get under a bed. If you are at school get under your desk.
■ Consider constructing a tornado safe room in or adjacent to your home.
Open Country
■ Seek a nearby shelter if time permits.
■ If not, lie fl at in the nearest depression, ditch or culvert. Cover your head with your arms.
Vehicles
■ Abandon your vehicle and seek refuge in a building or, as a last resort, a ditch.
■ Do not try to outrun a tornado. Offices,
Hotels and Condos
■ When action is required, take shelter in an interior hallway on the lowest floor, closet or small room.
■ As a last resort, get under heavy furniture, away from windows.
Manufactured and Mobile Homes
■ Have a plan of where to go during a tornado threat � a nearby preidentified safe structure within walking distance. Abandon mobile homes and go to a firmly built shelter

Thunderstorms
About 10 percent of thunderstorms produce hazardous weather such as floods, large hail, dangerous winds and tornadoes. Lightning is always a danger in thunderstorms.
~Florida has 70-100 thunderstorm days a year depending on your location.

Hurricanes

All the recorded storms within 68nm of Melbourne~ credit NOAA
Run from the water and hide from the wind.
~Run from the water
During a hurricane, the threat from water can come from two directions: the ocean or the sky. Water moving
inland from the ocean can result in one of the hurricane�s most serious dangers, storm surge. While heavy rainfall can cause dangerous freshwater or inland flooding.

How bad is it?
How much storm surge will occur and how far inland it gets depends on many factors. Generally, a stronger hurricane will produce more storm surge. Not all coastal areas are the same either. Storm surge is usually higher in places where the water near the coast is shallower, such as Florida�s Gulf Coast and Northeast Coast, where the surge can be more than 20 feet! That�s above the roof of most Florida houses. The effects of the surge decrease quickly as you move inland.

What should I do?
Many people die from freshwater fl ooding because they try to drive through water that covers roads. Moving water, only as deep as a car�s hubcaps, can be enough to move the car, possibly into a river or a stream.
Turn Around � Don�t Drown!

To estimate the total rainfall in inches from a
hurricane, divide 100 by the forward speed of
the storm in miles per hour (mph).

FLOODING
FACTS
■ As little as one foot of moving water can carry most cars off the road.
■ Just six inches of fast-moving fl oodwater can sweep a person off his or her feet.
■ Most fl ood-related deaths occur at night and are vehicular.
■ Urban and small stream flash floods often occur in less than one hour.
■ Tropical cyclones pose signifi cant risk well inland due to freshwater flooding.

Hide from the wind~
What should I do?
Strong winds can extend far inland, so instead of running from them, a better plan is to hide from them in a well-constructed and protected permanent building, as long as you are not in an area threatened by the storm surge. Use well-constructed storm shutters for your windows and doors, and for the safest results,install a fortified garage door. Masking tape will NOT adequately protect your windows.

Hurricane Safety Actions
■ Know if you live in an evacuation area. Know your home�s vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind. Have a family plan.
■ At the beginning of hurricane season (June), check your supplies, replace batteries and rotate your stock of food and water.
■ If a storm threatens, listen to your local authorities. Evacuate if ordered.

Tempature Extremes & Ultraviolet Radiation
Hot weather Safety Action
■ Never leave a child or pet in an unattended vehicle.
■ Drink plenty of water.
■ Stay out of the sun and in an air-conditioned place during the heat of the day.
■ Re strict strenuous activities to a cooler time of day.
■ Dress in loose, lightweight, light-colored clothes.
■ Use sunscreen to avoid sun burn. Consider wearing a hat.
■ During pro longed heat waves, check on elderly family, friends and neighbors.

Wildfires
■ Create a defensible or safe space of at least 30 feet around your home that is lean, clean and green.
■ To help emergency vehicles gain access, make sure driveways are at least 12 feet wide with at least 15 feet of overhead clearance and are easily identifiable.
■ Keep gutters, eaves and yards clear of debris, sticks, pine needles and leaves.
■ Trim all tree branches that hang over the house or are lower than 6 to 10 feet from the ground.
■ Plant fi re-resistant plants such as dogwood, sycamore, magnolia, oaks, red maple, wild azalea,
sweetgum, black cherry and ferns instead of pines and palmettos.
■ Use fi re-resistant construction materials where possible and fire resistant barriers when attaching fl ammable materials, such as wood decks or fences to the house.
■ Follow local regulations for the burning or disposal of yard waste and other materials.
■ Develop a personal disaster plan, including a plan for evacuating your home. Be sure to identify at least two routes out of your neighborhood or subdivision.

Tsunamis and Florida
There is a fault in South Carolina that actually has generated a tsunami in Florida. On Aug. 31, 1886, a strong earthquake shook the city of Charleston destroying many of the city�s buildings. This earthquake also shook northern Florida and approximately 15 minutes later, a tsunami hit the beaches near Jacksonville. Floridians were lucky because not too many people lived there at that time, but if the same thing occurred today, many people could be hurt or even killed. A strong earthquake is nature�s tsunami warning, and if you feel a strong earthquake, or if the water begins to act strangely for no apparent reason, you should get to higher ground quickly. There are several areas near Puerto Rico and Europe where large tsunami-generating earthquakes can occur, and these tsunamis can travel great distances, even crossing the entire Atlantic Ocean. This type of tsunami is called �tele-tsunami,� and the recent Indian Ocean tsunami was one. This is why the waves struck beaches far away from the earthquake with no warning. In the United States, there is equipment scientists use to watch for this threat, and if Florida were to be threatened by a tele-tsunami, we would have several hours of warning to get to higher ground.

~Well atleast we don't have volcanoes! There is a lot of great, printable stuff on the site for teaching kids & students to be safe.

They strongly stress through the whole site~
Buy & use a NOAA Weather Radio

~each day this week one of these important weather hazards are being looked at indepth ~ DaAntiCyclone is posting a daily blog update dedicating each day to the hazard the NWS is highlighting for the day...check it out
------------------------------------------------- ----------

~ credit NWS,


oops~ can't easily get color key in here, so if your conserned about what shade is on your house ~ click here (the bright pink is red flag fire warning)

NOAA wants your comment by June 1, 2006 on a new percipition model product for US & PR. It was good in my opinion, added it to the favorites for next season. On the bottom there is a contact for your comments; good, bad & improvement ideas.

Weather Modification Bill There is now two versions. The second has been presented to senate~ contact your senators TODAY!

For or against these are the key state senators involved~ if you live in one of these states you have more affluence on the matter, but it never hurts to contact yours as they will have a vote:

California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming
Link to all state senators

My strongest reason for opposing this bill is the small committee that would be making weather modification decisions without the valuable input from many scientific fields as well as the public.

Update on IWIN termination~ could have a finally decision by March 1. If to be terminated~ no sooner than July 1.

Hazardous Weather Preparation

Updated: 7:21 PM GMT on July 13, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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