The Logical Temperature Record

By: Seastep, 1:57 AM GMT on March 05, 2010

Many thanks to atmoaggie for the great looking graphs. Beat mine by a long-shot. Just compare the first three to my fourth.Sources are simply the Land+Ocean UAH satellite monthly temperature data set (averaged to annual) and the GISS annual data set, representing one trip around the sun.Pre-reading note: The trend of the GISS temps up to 1978 and the UAH temps for 1979 forward is unchanged in the final result. i.e., all points remain the same distance apart. Th...

Updated: 6:02 AM GMT on March 05, 2010

Mea Culpa

By: Seastep, 5:12 AM GMT on February 26, 2010

Data is the data. I modified the original, rather than a new entry purposefully, so anyone clicking a link does not get false info.I was disorganized in my initial work. Upon doing my blog entry on the logic, I completely separated it from other work and realized the mistake.My apologies to all. The first two graphs are valid, and I post them here again. It was not fruitless, though. There is still a difference if you compare the raw GISS to the combined GISS+U...

Updated: 8:14 PM GMT on March 04, 2010

Solar Cycles and Earth Temperatures

By: Seastep, 3:37 AM GMT on February 11, 2010

Correction: Sorry about the title I forgot to change on that first graph. It is relative to 1997.Rotating sunspots produce almost 300% more energy (Maria D. Kazachenko et al 2009 ApJ 704 1146-1158).The previous 11-year sub-cycle (cycle 23) that started in 1997 had 12% more rotating sunspots in the Northern hemisphere during the peak and the most rotating sunspots on record (X. L. Yan et al 2008 ApJ 682 L65-L68).Therefore, the location and, especially, rotation m...

Updated: 5:12 PM GMT on February 11, 2010

Forecast validation: Actual Temps vs. IPCC AR4

By: Seastep, 4:43 PM GMT on February 06, 2010

Trend based on actual temps 2000-2009 relative to the year 2000.Dashed lines are the entire model range. Solid lines are IPCC most likely. Green line is actual.Note: 2005 appears to be missing, but that is a resolution issue. It is the IPCC most likely maximum line (slight uptick from 2004).Trend based on actual temps 1997-2009 relative to the year 2000.Sources:UAH Satellite temperaturesIPCC

Updated: 7:13 AM GMT on February 08, 2010

The Cone

By: Seastep, 5:52 PM GMT on November 27, 2009

For us tropical buffs, I did an analysis of the IPCC predictions for first through fourth assessments (all available) in the same manner as the NHC cone.I used monthly mean sat temps only and used the UAH data.Actual temps are from Jan 1979 through October 2009. Left side of graphs is Jan 1979 and right side is Dec 2100.The dashed black lines are the entire model range, per IPCC, and the solid lines are their prediction (i.e., their "cone").Green line is actual UAH...

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About Seastep

Calc 3 (thru calc 2 in HS) Physics Tons of prob and stats Actuarial science Heavy coding on computer end My citizen scientist creds in 150 charAL5

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IPCC 2006
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UAH vs. IPCC 4 2007
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