WILL INVEST 93L AFFECT FLORIDA?
Update Posted 6/30/09 @ 11:00 AM EDT
Looks as if 93L did not survive long enough to strengthen in the GOM... In fact the HNC lost interest in the invest a few days ago and chances for any remnants of this disturbed area to develop now are slim to none. A quick look at the WV Loop shows nothing of specific interest beyond the storms moving across Florida from the Eastern GOM and tropical development is not expected for at least the next several days.
Posted 6/27/09 @ 12:15 PM EDT
The area of disturbed weather East of the Yucatan Peninsula designated 93L does not look as impressive this morning as compared to yesterday afternoon, still the NHC maintains a Medium (30 to 50%) chance this system may be able to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that the poorly defined center will not actually move over land but rather make it into the Southern GOM where conditions for further development improve somewhat. Forecast models are not in agreement on either the track or intensity for this area of invest but wind shear is expected to be around 10kts with waters easily warm enough to support tropical development, so it is an area we should monitor. Earlier model runs placed this system as a strong TS or minimal Hurricane near South Florida early next week, but the latest runs back off from that scenerio, favoring a more northerly path and only predict TS strength at best. I would like to wait for this system to enter the GOM before making any personal predictions in hopes the models will fall into better agreement by that time. I will monitor the progess of this area and update as needed... Enjoy your weekend.
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Updated: 3:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2009
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QUIET START FOR THE TROPICAL SEASON
Update Posted 6/19/09 @ 9:00 PM EDT
I guess some sort of an update is in order, at least to mention that I am still here and have an eye on the Tropics... However, the Tropical Atlantic offers very little to discuss and my thinking is that will continue to be the case until at least the middle of next week. Locally, SouthWest Florida can expect a hot weekend... Temperatures in the mid 90's with heat indexes reaching well into the 100's. Our chance for afternoon storms will be 30 to 40% each day. I will post again as soon as something starts to stir in the Tropics.
Update Posted 6/8/09 @ 5:30 PM EDT
The rain we have been getting has helped our dry conditions here is SWFL but none of it can be classified as tropical yet. While we did get an early wake up call with that TD along the East Coast, the start of this years Tropical Season looks as if it will remain quiet through the work week at least. A few days ago it looked like an area being watched in the CARIB might drift North and become something to monitor but now it seems unlikely we are going to see this develop. I will keep an eye on things and update as needed.
Posted 6/1/09 @ 11:00 AM EDT
Today marks the official start of the Atlantic Tropical Season (Hurricane Season), though we actually had our first Tropical Depression last week. No Tropical Threats exist at the moment so I will post a short explaination on what you can expect to see on South Florida StormWatch during the Tropical Season.
The HURRICANE SECTION at the main South Florida StormWatch Site is ready and will be updated during active storms, along with my blog posts (posted there, mirrored here). My primary focus will be to cover systems with the potential to affect South Florida, though I do post information on all Tropical Systems.
During times when no active system(s) exist I may post or update on forecasted events or systems being investigated for development, the same holds true for Tropical Depressions that pose no immediate threat to South Florida. Posts falling into this category will be updated only when needed. A dedicated post will be started anytime a Tropical System of any type may affect South Florida and also for any Named Storm, these posts will be updated at least daily, or perhaps even more often, depending on the situation. I will also post when other (non-tropical) Long Term Severe Weather conditions exist or may soon exist in South Florida. If I am unable to post for a period of time I will relay that information as well, along with how you can obtain storm information from alternate sources during that time.
South Florida StormWatch posts contain my interpretation of factual & forecast information taken from many internet resources and translated into my own words, along with my own opinion based on my knowledge of Tropical Systems and 'gut feeling'... As such the information found here should never take the place of what your local officials are telling you, this is a place to learn about and discuss Tropical Systems, not an official news site.
Having said that I will finish off with a short summary about myself... I am not a weatherman and have no formal training in weather forecasting. However, I have been interested in and have followed Tropical Systems since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and have lived in Florida since 1995 so I have monitored the progress of many storms and increased my knowledge about them every year. Please feel free to post your own comments and opinions for discussion.
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Updated: 1:02 AM GMT on June 20, 2009
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