SPLbeater's Blog
Spring & Possible Snow Around The Corner
Posted by: SPLbeater, 8:57 PM GMT on March 17, 2013 +2
North America is just a few days from the beginning of spring, and I, like many others, are ready for the warmer weather. It has been quite a winter, with several huge snowstorms passing across the country. I'm sure the western states, central plains and northeast have seen their share of snowfall this winter. But according to long range models, winter may not be ready to let go.

Arctic Oscillation history and ensemble forecast in red, showing the huge dive to a strong negative as spring begins. Image courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.



Next Weekend



Towards the latter hours of Friday or Saturday, a low pressure system is forecast to move northeast from the Gulf of Mexico across north Florida by the GFS. Snowfall will already be a possibility on the northern edge of a shield of precipitation to the north of this low, currently shown across Missouri, down to Tennessee and over to South Carolina. As daytime heating increases, this snow will likely change back to rain until darkness brings cold temperatures back.

Sunday, the low is shown to move off the east coast of Florida and up the southeast coastline. Snow and cold temperatures, as with any cut off low, will begin working south from the northwest quadrant of this low.

As the low moves parallel to the Carolina's coastline, cold air will dive down across the Mid-Atlantic bringing the change over to snow with it. Currently, I believe the reason this snow is shown in the forecast from the GFS is the timing. This low is forecast to pull cold air in from the north during night hours, which helps with the cooling. If the timing is off by just a few hours to where this low moves past the southeast coast during the day, frozen precipitation will likely be cancelled out almost completely.

GFS forecast for surface pressure and 850-700mb thickness, showing the low deepening off the NC Outer Banks.


This is probably my last blog on winter weather, and I will begin blogging on severe weather after the official start of spring. However, if it does appear that a winter storm will have an effect on the southeast, I will provide details on it when necessary.

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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!
Categories:Model Forecasts Winter Weather
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Potent System In Long Range Forecast; Southeast Drought Improving
Posted by: SPLbeater, 11:39 PM GMT on March 11, 2013 +1
The ECMWF and GFS have both hinted at the potential for another low pressure system to move east from the southwest states and provide more winter weather to the southeast. This potential has since been reduced by a good amount, as neither GFS or ECMWF show this low exiting the states any further south then New Jersey. On the other hand, after the current cold front moving over the south exits to the Atlantic, high pressure is forecast to build back in and we will o...
Categories:Model Forecasts Drought
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Pleasant Weather Forecast For Southeast
Posted by: SPLbeater, 10:26 PM GMT on March 07, 2013 +2
The next 7 days across the southeastern states will likely yield warm temperatures, with plenty of sunshine. A very nice recovery for the Mid-Atlantic after all that snowfall, with temperature rising to the high 50's in the northern southeast states up to low 70's closer to the Gulf coastline. A trough is forecast to move through early next week, but temperatures will likely not return to below average.

GFS forecast for 10 AM Saturday, indicating the hig...
Categories:Model Forecasts
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Winter Storm Aimed For Mid-Atlantic
Posted by: SPLbeater, 2:01 AM GMT on March 04, 2013 +2
Winter Storm Warnings are out all along the north central plains and south of the Great Lakes in advance of a low pressure system moving southeast. Snowfall totals will likely reach beyond 6 inches for a widespread area, stretching from North Dakota down to Illinois. The main focus of this system, from what I have seen, is around the Mid-Atlantic. A few major models have shown more than 12 inches on the backside of the coming low, but where this will occur is still ...
Categories:Model Forecasts Winter Weather
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Introduction. Again.
Posted by: SPLbeater, 8:31 PM GMT on March 01, 2013 +3
Good evening all! Some of you may remember me from late 2011 and early 2012...and after my year's vacation from Wunderground, I am back courtesy of moderator's grace.

After leaving/banned from here, I immediately set up a new blog home at blogspot. The main blog is where I post meteorological stuff, and a second blog does the job for news and other things concerning the blog. This blog here on Wunderground will contain exactly what my main blog does, and...
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About SPLbeater
SPLbeater started interest in meteorology in 2009. He now regularly blogs on Blogspot on varying weather events.

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