Winter Storm Aimed For Mid-Atlantic

By: SPLbeater , 2:01 AM GMT on March 04, 2013

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Winter Storm Warnings are out all along the north central plains and south of the Great Lakes in advance of a low pressure system moving southeast. Snowfall totals will likely reach beyond 6 inches for a widespread area, stretching from North Dakota down to Illinois. The main focus of this system, from what I have seen, is around the Mid-Atlantic. A few major models have shown more than 12 inches on the backside of the coming low, but where this will occur is still fairly uncertain. Latest model trends have put northern Virginia in the cross hairs, but a small shift south in the track will have a large impact as to what area sees the greatest snowfall

Current Infrared satellite imagery of the country, showing our game player moving across the northern plains.


Accumulations


I want it noted that I am hesitant to write down a specific area, due to the uncertainty in track. It is a bit more clear then it was a few days ago, which is to be expected.
I personally believe that regardless of a shift in track to the north or south, there will be some accumulations between Greensboro, NC and Richmond, VA. As things stand now, the general consensus shows the low moving east across North Carolina, and then as the center reaches the Atlantic rapid development is shown of the low. Steepening lapse rates near the backside of this low will likely help to enhance a shield of precipitation, which will give high accumulation amounts. As the system sits off the NC Outer Banks and strengthens, the shield of snow is shown to sweep down across Maryland and central Virginia, dropping over 3 inches from around Lynchburg, VA northeast to Baltimore, MD. In the center of this shield of snow, currently forecast to center in northern Virginia, snow accumulations above 12 inches is likely.

As previously stated, a degree or two shift south from the current forecast track would land the center of the low pressure system between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC. This would put central North Carolina underneath the most accumulations. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this scenario is not most likely, but it is still a possibility.

ECMWF/GFS surface pressure comparison from the 12Z runs, showing the ECMWF in orange and GFS in green. If the ECMWF were to occur from this forecast, the center of snowfall accumulations would likely set up near south/southwestern Virginia and northwest North Carolina.


I will try to have another post out Wednesday, hopefully during the morning hours before the bulk of snow begins to fall. Then I can give a certain forecast for accumulations, and pinpoint where.

On another note, for those in NC and SC, the National Weather Service has declared this week 'Severe Weather Awareness' week. A statewide tornado warning drill will be conducted in South Carolina Tuesday, and North Carolina Wednesday.
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Thanks all for stopping in, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!

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5. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:26 PM GMT on March 07, 2013
SPLbeater has created a new entry.
4. BtnTx
5:22 AM GMT on March 04, 2013
It is good to see you back again!
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 891
3. SPLbeater
2:36 AM GMT on March 04, 2013
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good to see you blogging a gain SPL! I'm hoping the models trend more north and throw some more snow my way. Of course, I'm sure you're hoping for a trend south :)


Thanks MA. My church pastor and his daughter(runs in the family lol) are hoping for enough snow to have to rent a snowmobile. Pastor always loved snow. I would be just fine with all rain and some thunder though. :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
2. wxchaser97
2:33 AM GMT on March 04, 2013
No no no, the models need to trend north so SE MI can get more snow :P
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
1. MAweatherboy1
2:31 AM GMT on March 04, 2013
Good to see you blogging again SPL! I'm hoping the models trend more north and throw some more snow my way. Of course, I'm sure you're hoping for a trend south :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7838

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About SPLbeater

I started interest in the weather in 2009...born and currently residing in North Carolina. 100% Patriot, too.