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By: SLU, 9:03 PM GMT on August 02, 2013
Of note is that CSU's landfall probabilities are based on the total number of storms predicted so an inactive season would have a lower landfall probability and an active season would naturally have a higher landfall probability. However, they do not take into consideration the anomalous strength of the ridging which also increases or decreases the landfall probabilities. In my opinion, an inactive year with stronger than normal rigding may actually have a higher landfall probability than an active year with a strong and permanent trough over the western Atlantic. Although this is very difficult to predict in advance, I'm sure some kind of analog system can be developed using past seasons to gauge the strength of the ridging possible in any year. Based on the recent trends of strong ridging this year, I believe that the landfall probabilities are actually much higher than that of CSU's estimate and that many of the serious hurricanes this year could threaten if not hit land.
Based on the set up of the 500mb height anomalies, the SLP anomalies and the 400mb air temperature anomalies for June and July, it is certainly setting up to be a very high impact year.
Very strong ridging in June and July may persist throughout ASO and prevent much recurvature.
Based on my observations, storms tend to congregate and move towards areas where the pressures are lowest and where the 400mb air temperatures are highest relative to normal. Notice how these conditions both exists around the Caribbean and the MDR in general.
One saving grace may be the extremely dry air across the MDR which might prevent the rapid strengthening of the storms.
Updated: 9:03 PM GMT on August 02, 2013