The Last Beginning of Spring

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 4:20 AM GMT on April 13, 2008

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Getting Ready for Spring (5):

First I want to apologize for such a long absence. Thanks for keeping some discussion going. Slammed with classes. I have not even been able to keep up with my class web site. For those of you who go there, look in the next week for the rest of the lectures. There are some good new references. Speaking of good and new, and I know this will excite the people of this blog, at least the commenters, here’s something new about hurricanes from Kerry Emanuel. This from the New York Times. I expect Jeff will talk about it. (If it is old news ... sorry.)

This is the last of the series on the changing springtime. This one is a little more in the spirit of doing science. At the time of the equinox NPR did a story on the beginning of spring. It featured Kirsten de Beurs from Virginia Tech. Here is the audio link from the radio. The article talked about the cherry blossoms at the Tidal Basin in Washington. (If you are ever in Washington at cherry blossom time, it is a first tier event.) I contacted Kirsten and she put together a plot from satellite data for me. Here is the link on her web page, with a more detailed description than the one I give below.



Figure 1: from Kirsten de Beurs: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ( NDVI from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AVHRR satellite . Left 1982, Right 2006.

I want to write about these two “snap shots” from 24 years apart. First, I want to say that these two figures by themselves do not establish a trend. They are interesting figures because they show the type of details that must be addressed when trying to determine trends. This figure specifically shows when the NDVI is halfway to its yearly maximum – this could be called the time of fastest “greening.” (I always find the term greening a little confusing and you see a map with so much red, but as drawn, my ultimate point will focus on 2006 being less red! Thanks Kirsten.) This maximum increase is used to indicate the start of season. What the figure shows, then, is the date that the start of the season occurs, as defined by this satellite observation.

I have marked A, B, and C on the figures. A is in Indiana, and this region is red, showing a very late start of season. This is agricultural land and the time of maximum greening is determined by when, in this case, a whole lot of corn is planted. The point B, down in North Carolina (Weren’t we ALL disappointed in the NC-Kansas game, but you knew the emotion would be with Kansas?), and shows an alarmingly late spring in 1982. This is not a late spring as much as this was a year with sustained cloud cover over this part of the country. Clouds are notorious confounders of satellite observations, and often satellite observations are composites of cloud-free images. In 1982, apparently not much cloud-free time there.

Up in area C, in eastern Canada, is where there is evidence of a large difference in the onset of spring between the two years. (Note a discrepancy in Nova Scotia, which I know nothing about.) In area C, there are more yellows and greens, less red, as the start of the season has gotten earlier. It is the persistent signal of early spring in the recent years that is consistent with the warming temperatures.

This series of blogs started with the phenology, the onset of spring. I talked about how seeing a change in the transition from winter to spring and fall to winter, a lengthening of the warm season, would be a robust indicator of a general warming trend. The basic idea was that the random-aspect of weather would be averaged out. This would reveal a tendency in the seasonal transition. We started with birds and trees, looked at change in snow cover, and satellite data of vegetative activity. I want to bring it back to the birds and trees.

Steve Bloom in the comments of the first blog in the series and Kirsten de Beurs both pointed out this citizens science website , Project Budburst. Here is a link to the U.S. National Phenology Network, which gives guidance for how to observe. Like, siting a weather station, you don’t want to observe next to the heating vent. And from the National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service, a lot of information on flowers, birds, and butterflies.

Welcome to spring.

r

Blogs on spring getting earlier:

Getting Ready for Spring (1)
Getting Ready for Spring (2)
Getting Ready for Spring (3)
Getting Ready for Spring (4)
Jeff Masters blog on snowy winters




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159. biff4ugo
1:02 PM GMT on May 21, 2008
I recently heard that there are 100x more active volcanoes under the ocean than above it. Have any of the sea surface temperatures picked up any heat plumes from them? and If not, why not? Even from a 1000 feet down there should be some large scale upwelling from a huge magma chamber. You would think a hundred volcanoes would be noticed.
Bob even shows underwater volcanoes belching huge bubbles of methane. Has anyone looked into capturing these greenhouse gasses for fuel or ignighting them if methane is much worse than co2.

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/264
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 119 Comments: 1636
158. crucilandia
6:44 PM GMT on April 21, 2008
None of the environmental controls we imposed in the US has a the dire economic consequences that were forecast.


can you cite some sources for it?
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
157. streamtracker
3:00 PM GMT on April 21, 2008
#155

So we live in world were we can only solve one problem at time?

Either we deal with AGW or we help pull people out of poverty?


Nonsense. Whenever the world has been faced with an environmental issue this is the same either/or framing we get from the naysayers.

None of the environmental controls we imposed in the US has a the dire economic consequences that were forecast.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
156. crucilandia
1:07 PM GMT on April 21, 2008
Thanks Michael, I aggree.
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155. sebastianjer
8:54 PM GMT on April 20, 2008
Maybe Horses Will Fly - Developing Countries and Global Warming

The satisfaction of the material needs of food and water and shelter is not an obstacle to but rather the precondition for the modern appreciation of the nonhuman world
Posted by Siddhartha Shome on April 15, 2008 at 6:19 PM
Tools: print | digg | del.icio.us | reddit | stumbleupon

Last week, the New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin blogged about the World Bank's decision to finance a major new coal fired power plant in India. Revkin ended his blog with a question: "Is all of this bad? If you're one of many climate scientists foreseeing calamity, yes. If you're a village kid in rural India looking for a light to read by, no."



In response, the famed environmental writer Bill McKibben asked his own question:

"The really interesting question, to follow on the last sentence of the story, is: what if you're an Indian kid looking for a light to read by-and also living near the rising ocean, or vulnerable to the the range expansion of dengue-bearing mosquitoes, or dependent on suddenly-in-question monsoonal rains."

McKibben may think he knows better but I think the answer for that village kid would probably be the same. Take the electricity and the light to read by and worry about malaria and monsoonal rains later. To get some idea of the problems facing people in rural India, just consider the following:

1. In India, the literacy rate is only 64%. The female literacy rate is even lower. In half the households in rural India, there is not a single female member above the age of 15 who can read or write.

2. Out of a population of one billion, more than 300 million Indians live on less than a dollar a day.

3. In India, some 400,000 children under the age of five die each year from diarrhoea caused by easily preventable factors such as poor hygiene and unsafe drinking water.

4. Indian society continues to be plagued by extreme forms of discrimination and exploitation based on the traditional caste system. There are many millions (estimates range from 40 million to 100 million) of bonded laborers (slaves) in India today, mainly belonging to the lowest castes, the Dalits.

5. There still exists widespread discrimination against women in India. Economist Amartya Sen estimates that in the developing world, due to the preference for sons over daughters, and due to the sheer neglect of women and girls, some 100 million women are simply missing.

In this scenario, how can one seriously suggest that the village kid in India should give up her hopes of prosperity, education, and health care today, in order to prevent rising ocean levels many years down the road? What would Americans do in the same situation? Or Europeans? Or human beings anywhere?

There are some very good reasons why people in rural India should first worry about their basic human necessities today, rather than about the long term effects of global warming.

First, if you and your family don't have access to such things as clean water and basic health care, neither you, nor your children, nor your grandchildren may even be around long enough to witness tomorrow, making the future rise or fall of the world's oceans a moot point.

Second, the life of an educated, healthy and modestly prosperous person living in tomorrow's globally-warmed world of higher ocean levels may well be better than the poverty stricken life of an Indian villager in the pre-global-warming world. In other words, even if the most dire predictions about global warming come true, some of the poorest people in the world may still be better off tomorrow if they are able to enjoy some of the fruits of development, such as education, health care, electricity, etc.

Third, and most important, maybe horses will fly. Let me tell you an Indian story about the Mughal Emperor Akbar and his witty minister, Birbal. One day, for some reason, Akbar became very angry with Birbal, and ordered that he be beheaded. Birbal pleaded for his life, but to no avail. Then Birbal hit upon an idea. He promised Akbar, that if he was spared for a year, he would make Akbar's favorite horse fly. Akbar relented, and let Birbal live. When a friend asked Birbal how he planned to make the horse fly, Birbal replied, "anything can happen in a year; Akbar can die; the horse can die; and who knows, maybe the horse will fly." In a slightly different context, what this means is that, first and foremost, human beings need to achieve a certain minimum level of material well-being and sense of security. And once this is achieved, who knows what wonders can happen. If the billions of impoverished people in the developing world can get widespread access to education, health care, and job opportunities, who knows what the unleashing of their talent and energy can achieve. Having met their basic needs, maybe they will start thinking about the environment. Maybe new ideas will burst forth. Maybe new and better energy technologies will be adopted, which will not only address global warming, but also ensure a minimum standard of living for all people everywhere. Maybe horses will fly.

As Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger put it in the book Breakthrough, "the satisfaction of the material needs of food and water and shelter is not an obstacle to but rather the precondition for the modern appreciation of the nonhuman world".
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
154. sebastianjer
8:47 PM GMT on April 20, 2008
We will get this global warming under control if we have to kill half the human race to do it, by God!


EU defends biofuel goals amid food crises


Mon Apr 14, 10:39 AM ET

BRUSSELS (AFP) - The EU Commission on Monday rejected claims that producing biofuels is a "crime against humanity" that threatens food supplies, and vowed to stick to its goals as part of a climate change package.

"There is no question for now of suspending the target fixed for biofuels," said Barbara Helfferich, spokeswoman for EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.

"You can't change a political objective without risking a debate on all the other objectives," which could see the EU landmark climate change and energy package disintegrate, an EU official said.

Their comments came amid growing unease over the planting of biofuel crops as food prices rocket and riots against poverty and hunger multiply worldwide.

UN Special Rapporteur for the Right to Food Jean Ziegler told German radio Monday that the production of biofuels is "a crime against humanity" because of its impact on global food prices.

EU leaders, seeking to show the way on global warming, have pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020.

As part of a package of measures the 27 member states have set a target of biofuels making up 10 percent of automobile fuel by the same year.

"We don't have an enormous danger of too much of a shift from food production to biofuels production," said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel.

Mann, like Helfferich speaking to reporters in Brussels, stressed that the 10 percent target would in part be achieved through higher yields and increased production.

Ziegler also accused the European Union of subsidising its agriculture exports with effect of undermining production in Africa.

"The EU finances the exports of European agricultural surpluses to Africa ... where they are offered at one half or one third of their (production) price," the UN official charged.

"That completely ruins African agriculture," he added.

In recent months, rising food costs have sparked violent protests in Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Mauritania, the Philippines and other countries.

In Pakistan and Thailand, troops have been deployed to avoid the seizure of food from fields and warehouses, while price increases fuelled a general strike in Burkina Faso.

The European Environment Agency, advisors to the European Commission, on Friday recommended that the EU suspend its 10 percent biofuels target.

It argued that the target would require large amounts of additional imports of biofuels leading to the accelerated destruction of rain forests. The agency also questioned the environmental benefits of biofuels.

Also in a recent report the World Bank said bluntly "biofuel production has pushed up feedstock prices".

Meanhwile Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, head of Nestle, the world's biggest food and beverage company, last month argued that "to grant enormous subsidies for biofuel production is morally unacceptable and irresponsible".

"There will be nothing left to eat," he added.

European leaders are aware of the growing body of opinion opposed to biofuels but Dimas has stressed the use of "second generation" biofuels; including leaves, straw and pond algae.

The first generation of green fuels -- biodiesel and ethanol-- are made from wheat, maize, colza, sugar beet etc, also used for human and animal feed.

However, according to French Ecology Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, the methods for utilising the second generation sources are far from complete.

"That will take 10 to 20 years," she told AFP.

The 27 EU nations are due on May 7 to approve strict criteria for the production of biofuels, according to the European Commission.

Speaking in Luxembourg on Monday French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier, meeting with his EU counterparts, said that food production must be the priority
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
152. cyclonebuster
9:46 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
Ricky,
Here is a novel idea. Lets nuke all the coral reefs on the planet so they will regrow some 50 years later of course there is one other option!!

Bikini Atoll's Nuked Coral Reef Bounces Back to Life
Half a century after the atomic blasts that devastated Bikini Atoll, vast expanses of corals in the area seem to be flourishing once again, much to the surprise of scientists.

American government scientists detonated a hydrogen bomb on the tiny island (a part of the Marshall Islands in the western Pacific) on March 1, 1954, and about 20 other nuclear tests were carried out on the atoll between 1946 and 1958.

Many of the natives were moved to Kili Island and today are compensated by the United States government.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
150. counters
5:54 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
Could we try to condense all these single-line comments into single entries? It's hard to read the comments when each comment is an unrelated, new sentence.
Member Since: February 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
149. crucilandia
4:09 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
ocean acidification has imense impact because it causes a shallowing of the CCD. that makes a huge difference on CO2 system.
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
148. crucilandia
4:08 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
cocoliths are sparce they are not widespread, albeit in high numbers. corals also calcify etc. Co2 draw down only works if coco skeleton gets buried in the sediments and do not dissolve back.
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
147. crucilandia
4:03 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
whoa! he just asked the field. he did not ask if you can read
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
146. streamtracker
4:00 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#134,

Do you have the quantitative data to support that statement? Maybe it's true?

So why did the authors claim their findings will have significant affects on our understanding of biogeochemical processes related to CO2 and oceans?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
145. streamtracker
3:56 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#141,

did not say that. I am a terrestrial biologist with expertise in with mammals/birds and conservation biology.

That doesn't mean I can't read a paper on ocean ecology and underastand it quite well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
144. streamtracker
3:54 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#139,

This is not the only paper to find no link.
This paper looked at cloud formation in a period of time were the effect should have been discernable. It was not.

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
143. crucilandia
3:35 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
cocoliths calcification effect on CO2 is minute compared to the chemical and physical processes controlling CO2 transfer at the air-sea interface.

Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
142. cyclonebuster
3:35 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
141. cyclonebuster
3:33 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
Streamtracker,

Biologist for land and oceans?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
140. crucilandia
3:31 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
we are saying the warming stopped within that range of years that the temperature has been stable, not the we are going into cooling for decades.
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
139. crucilandia
3:29 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
abrupt dips in cosmic ray intensity did not produce any discernible pattern of changes in clouds

Because they are short lived and the cloud system does not respond to them. On the long run comsmic rays have an effect.
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212
138. streamtracker
2:58 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#136,

No and I'm not sure where Cruci got that idea. I'm a biologist with an interest in the bioologcal affects of warming climate.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
137. streamtracker
2:57 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#133.

Not sure what you think the significance of this is, but it doesn't mean less warming.

here's the relevant equation for calcification:

Ca2+ +2HCO3– -> CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O

So, calcification outgases CO2. The thought was that as ocean's acidify, the cocco's would decline and there would be a negative feedback and the oceans would become better at storing CO2. But, the opposite happened and as a result the equation above will be working harder and canceling out the net benefit in terms of atmospehric CO2.

From the author's institution's website:

Contrary to previous suggestions of decreased calcification under high CO2 levels, which could potentially act as a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels, the observed increase in both calcification (CO2 outgassing) and photosynthesis (CO2 ingassing) suggest that future coccolithophore populations will neither greatly ameliorate nor exacerbate atmospheric CO2 rise.

So, the cocco's won't make a difference in terms of atmospheric CO2 levels. That's bad news.

The hope was that declines in Cocco's calcification would act to decrease the amount of CO2 outgasing, but it won't, so now the models have to adjusted. This is not good news. This means the models may once again be underestimating not overestimating.

The study makes it clear that this doesn't mean there will be an additional postive feedback, but rather that a negative feedback that was in the models may not exist.

If skeptics want to jump on this one, go ahead. It actually means the opposite of what they had hoped.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
136. cyclonebuster
1:41 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
Streamtracker you can run weather computer models?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
135. streamtracker
1:36 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
I now not to make too much of one months of data, but the "warming has stopped" crowd tried to make hay on a few months of cooler weather. So just for fun here's another blurb on this March:

Last month was the warmest March on record over land surfaces of the world and the second warmest overall worldwide.
...snip...
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said high temperatures over much of Asia pulled the worldwide land temperature up to an average of 40.8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.9 degrees Celsius), 3.2 degrees (1.8 C) warmer than the average in the 20th century.
...snip...
Global ocean temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, with a weakening of the La Nina conditions that cool the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Overall land and sea surface temperatures for the world were second highest in 129 years of record keeping, trailing only 2002, the agency said.


Since a months worth of data can be seperated from weather noise, see graph in comment #122 for the broader climate picture.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
134. streamtracker
1:30 PM GMT on April 18, 2008
#132

That is a really odd line of reasoning. It's called research. It's what the skeptics wanted. Skeptics suggested a link and scientists looked at it and what have they been finding? Zero.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
133. sebastianjer
11:15 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
Also a very interesting article

"Plankton Hold Surprise for Climate Research"

"At the moment, with the information we have, it's just not possible to say what this means in terms of carbon," Iglesias-Rodriguez agreed. "But it's very important information for the models, because they are using the opposite information to what we find."

Doney agreed. "A lot of conclusions have been drawn from a handful of studies, and the ocean has a lot of surprises for us."
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
132. sebastianjer
11:04 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
Beginning to think there must be something to it, since the alarmist are so intent on downplaying it, lol
Have a good day
JER
___________________________________________________________
Is the causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover really dead?

Just recently, Sloan and Wolfendale published a paper in Environmental Research Letters, called "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover". In the Institute of Physics Press Release, it said, "New research has deal a blow to the skeptics who argue that climate change is all due to cosmic rays rather than man made greenhouse gases". Did it really?

First, we should note that so called "skeptics" like myself or my serious colleagues never claimed that cosmic rays explain all the climate change, it does however explain most of the solar-climate link and a large fraction (perhaps 2/3's of the temperature increase over the 20th century).

Now for the paper itself....



Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
131. streamtracker
10:53 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
Cosmic ray/solar global warming link takes another hit.

A paper presented at the recent meeting of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting found no link between cloud formation and periods of diminished cosmic rays.

More doubt on cosmic climate link

Although some of the events [periods of low cosmic ray levels] were followed by a decrease in cloud cover or changes in the size of cloud droplets, others preceded an increase in cloud cover, or no change at all.

Overall, the results essentially appeared random; abrupt dips in cosmic ray intensity did not produce any discernible pattern of changes in clouds, either immediately or in the four days following the Forbush decrease.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
130. crucilandia
3:39 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
produce a big spike and it will take years for the warming trend to "catch up"

Yes, but there was a sharp cooling after the 1998. We should have seen a steady incrase towards the plateau after 2001.

I see, so there was a La nina after the 1998 EL filho. I wounder why the reverse does not happen after la nina, must be because el nino always takes over and things start to warm up again.

But there is something else, low frequency, driving the warming trend for that range of years in the graph. because el nino la nina only give the bumps in the long frequency.
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128. cyclonebuster
3:07 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
Streamtracker you can run weather computer models?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
126. crucilandia
2:59 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
tracker

what is the difference between forecast and scenario when you run your model?
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125. crucilandia
2:57 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
see the 1998 peak in your graph ? shoudda happened in 2005.

I stated that 2005 was a warm year.
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124. crucilandia
2:56 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
2005 was el nino. why global temp did not peak above teh normal trend as it did in 1998?
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123. crucilandia
2:53 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
just asking for your opinion, that's all.
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121. streamtracker
1:46 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
Cruci,

What's the difference between an interrogator and a debater?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
120. crucilandia
1:04 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
2005 was also an unusually warm year, the second highest in the global record, but was not boosted by the El Niño conditions that augmented the warmth of 1998
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119. crucilandia
12:56 AM GMT on April 18, 2008
that's why land sucks as index of warming
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118. cyclonebuster
11:03 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Another duck Ricky.

Lakes Of Meltwater Can Crack Greenland's Ice And Contribute To Faster Ice Sheet Flow
ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) — Researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and the University of Washington (UW) have for the first time documented the sudden and complete drainage of a lake of meltwater from the top of the Greenland ice sheet to its base.
Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20794
116. sebastianjer
10:01 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Dr James O'Brien
img src="" alt="" />
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115. sullivanweather
10:00 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Cruc, which is te reason why I posted it while the temperature anomaly charts were offline.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
114. crucilandia
9:52 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Your movie is just showing the meandering of the jet stream. nothing unusual. warmer than normal ahead of it and cooler than normal in the throughs.
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113. sullivanweather
7:56 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Hmm...

I guess that page was only offline for a few minutes.



This is anomalies for the past week (month-to-date not available, but last week wasn't too much different from this)

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
112. sullivanweather
7:53 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Mr.Bloom,

The page is apparently offline right now.

Basically northern Asia has been averaging below normal this month while northern Canada has moved into above normal territory. The anomalies aren't as drastic on the opposite ends of the spectrum as they were during March which is why I had almost in italics.

However, looking at the 200mb 11 day running mean anomalies (which have a loose correlation to temperature) one can see the turn around in the pattern from the beginning of the loop to the end of the loop.




What's also telling about this loop is the apparent restrengthening of the upper atmospheric La Nina pattern in the central Pacific, even as SST's have been in decline.

GWO phase diagram is also trending highly amplified towards La Nina atmospheric pattern.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
111. SteveBloom
7:05 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Re #110: A new NH land record for March, apparently. Is there any sort of similar map available in real time (or at least showing the April pattern you mention)?
110. sullivanweather
6:51 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
It was rather...uh...warm this March, according to the NCDC.

Global land temperatures were 3.2°F above normal for the month, aided by much of the Asian continent being 5-10°F above normal from the Caspian Sea eastward and northeastward.




What's strange is there's almost been a complete flip to the pattern thus far this April.
Ricky wrote a blog on these blocked patterns of high meridional flow back in August.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
109. crucilandia
6:42 PM GMT on April 17, 2008
Tracker

What is the difference between a scenario and a forecast?
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2212

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I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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