Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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Quoting 739. VAbeachhurricanes:
The worlds great, we are on the brink of a double dip recession, now the jet stream is getting all kinky, and I have a terrible feeling about the Olympics.

What a time to be alive...



Its easy to be overwhelmed by our world. I try to focus on the good stuff when things get tough, like my wife and family, my job, my continuing education.

I have the same weird feeling about Sochi however, and a sense of dread about the evolution of the human condition.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 5112
Quoting 697. goosegirl1:



The chemical plant that allowed the spill was last inspected in 1991 Link

The most concerning issue to me is, they were storing a chemical near a major waterway and apparently knew very little about the chemical or what its effects would be if it spilled.

One of the worse examples of industry over people was also caused by a WV-based chemical company. I suppose we should be thankful it wasn't a pesticide company that allowed the spill. Link


I just can't believe they put a chemical plant upstream from the water treatment plant. Have they never heard of the phrase "Don't drink downstream of the herd"?
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Quoting 739. VAbeachhurricanes:
The worlds great, we are on the brink of a double dip recession, now the jet stream is getting all kinky, and I have a terrible feeling about the Olympics.

What a time to be alive...


Yes we , had the Rolling Stones

The Rolling Stones - Get Off of My Cloud (1967)

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
738. barbamz
In England , there is phony debate about dredging the rivers , and they don't see that 3 times the rain is coming down.


It does matter if the sea level is rising . Rivers do not flow into higher seas.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
738. barbamz
In England , there is phony debate about dredging the rivers , and they don't see that 3 times the rain is coming down.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
The worlds great, we are on the brink of a double dip recession, now the jet stream is getting all kinky, and I have a terrible feeling about the Olympics.

What a time to be alive...
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Sad video ...



Published, 01.02.2014

Flights are cancelled and homes left without power as storms and floods wreak more havoc in Britain and the Republic of Ireland.
Heavy rains, large waves and strong winds wreaked havoc in Britain and Ireland today, cancelling flights and sparking a "significant risk to life" warning.

The worst of the weather was battering the Republic of Ireland but gusts were expected to pick up across Wales and southern parts of England during the day.

Environment Secretary Owen Paterson is to chair a meeting of the Government's Cobra emergencies committee by conference call at 3pm.

The Environment Agency warned "extraordinary measures" may be taken in Gloucestershire today to keep back tidal and river floods.
It issued severe flood warnings - meaning there is an imminent danger to life - for several parts of the county and the coasts of Cornwall and north Devon. ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 71 Comments: 7787
Quoting 735. ColoradoBob1:
A word about the deniers.

The first thing I ever followed on the web was B-15. I went over to my friend Larry's house and said , " We're in deep shit" . Because an iceberg the size of Delaware was calving from Antarctica.

The daughters of B-15 still roam the Southern Seas.

None of deniers ever have ever of heard of B-15.


My proof :
Wednesday, October 04, 2006


Farewell B-15A

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
Antarctic Ice Shelves May Completely Disappear in the Next 200 Years, Study Claims

Scientists claim that the continued warming will cause the floating ice shelves in Antarctica to disappear within the next 200 years.

In a latest report, researchers at Utrecht University in collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey claim that within the next 200 years, the freely floating ice shelves in the Antarctica may completely disappear due to the effects of warming on the snow cover. The melting ice shelves collapse into the ocean causing the sea levels to rise. Through this study the researchers state that these disappearing ice shelves can be saved by reduction in the greenhouse gas emission.

The study was funded by the European Union's four-year Ice2Sea project.
The study, led by Dr Peter Kuipers Munneke, the paper's lead author, looked at two different events that occurred in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula (Larsen A and B). Teo floating ice shelves suddenly collapsed in 1995 and 2002. The researcher suspect that these two events were a result of the disappearance of the snow layer covering the ice shelves.

Read more ...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4227
A word about the deniers.

The first thing I ever followed on the web was B-15. I went over to my friend Larry's house and said , " We're in deep shit" . Because an iceberg the size of Delaware was calving from Antarctica.

The daughters of B-15 still roam the Southern Seas.

None of deniers ever have ever of heard of B-15.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
Quoting 721. VAbeachhurricanes:
Would be interesting to understand why CO2 growth has not increased more than it has in recent years.



From 1980-1990 it averaged growing 1.6 ppm a year, from 2000-2010 it averaged growing 1.9 ppm a year. Not that dramatic of an increase.

While Carbon Dioxide released went from 6.91 Billion tons a year to 8.76 Billion tons a year respectively.

Average growth rate changed by 15.7 percent while Carbon Dioxide released rose by 21.1 percent. You would think those numbers would be closer.


VAbeachhurricane: You've actually stumbled upon one of the more interesting aspects of climate change science. You're correct: We SHOULD see more CO2 in the atmosphere than we do, especially if we add up all the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. But we don't. Why is that? Simple: The oceans, soil, and biosphere soaks up a portion. From Skeptical Science:

"The carbon dioxide that has been added to the oceans, plants, soils and fungi is the result of both greater emission rates and higher atmospheric concentrations. This results in a kind of negative feedback where ocean and land sinks absorb more carbon dioxide as more is pumped into the air.

"Together ocean and plants sinks have absorbed 56% of human carbon emissions since 1750. Without these sinks working overtime atmospheric carbon concentrations would already be well over 500 parts per million (ppm). In the case of the ocean acidification in particular this has not come without a cost…

"…Without land and ocean sinks working overtime concentrations of carbon dioxide would be well beyond the 400 ppm recently observed in Hawaii. The ocean sink (-76 ppm) and land sink (-68 ppm) have absorbed 56% of human carbon emissions since 1750, keeping global carbon dioxide concentrations ‘down’ to 393 ppm in 2012."
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Quoting 722. VAbeachhurricanes:

Source? data?

http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2013/04/Coo king_the_Books_FINAL-SCREEN.pdf

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Quoting 730. Birthmark:

Correct. Slowly, but still decreasing -as our temperatures would be in the absence of CO2 and other human activity.

In case you haven't seen this one:



But,but,but, whatabout "Spencer.... only 10%,... it's cold in LA"?
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4227
Course is free..
Classes begin on February 19th and run for 12 weeks..
As are several other courses noted..
I am registered now..
Thanks a ton John.. :)
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Quoting 727. Birthmark:

I'm guessing to some extent here, but there is a little room for nature to absorb a bit of the CO2 we produce. (Too lazy today to look up the numbers.)


Which in turn would tell me that naturally CO2 should be decreasing.
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Quoting 725. JohnLonergan:


Try this - See more at Real Climate


Got it now..
Thanks John..
I am interested in what the course entails and availability..
And of course fee..
I don't have deep pockets..
Off to give it a read..
Thanks.. :)
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Quoting 720. AlwaysThinkin:


You make a sad-but-true good point (about my sad-but-true point :D), plus

plus

plus

plus


Combine these traits and you don't merely have ignorance fortified by stupidity but an entire world view of cultural resentment, disinterest in the challenges and humility of learning, self pity, and an apocalyptic fear of a world cast in nuances of grey instead of blunt Spartan black and white.

If you really wanna understand the world view and the rhetoric used by science deniers I'd recommend reading about the Orthogonian vs. Franklin world view that has was conceived in Nixon's devious brilliant mind and has been used by corporate paid commentators and right wing media since. It isn't R vs L or Blue vs Red, it's an Us, the social striving Average Joes, (Orthogonians) vs. them, the privileged Political/Cultural/Educational Elites, (Franklins) prism through which they view science and anything that isn't self evident.

I know this isn't related to a scientific study or backed by necessarily by empirical evidence, but I think it helps to understand the narrative being written by the people who seem to be unable to come to plausible conclusions based on even self evident facts. Might have to write something up on this.


It's a pathology. Roughly one third of us.
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Quoting 717. pcola57:


I'm having trouble with th link John..
Help?
TIA..


Try this - See more at Real Climate
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4227
Quoting 721. VAbeachhurricanes:
Would be interesting to understand why CO2 growth has not increased more than it has in recent years.



From 1980-1990 it averaged growing 1.6 ppm a year, from 2000-2010 it averaged growing 1.9 ppm a year. Not that dramatic of an increase.

While Carbon Dioxide released went from 6.91 Billion tons a year to 8.76 Billion tons a year respectively.

Average growth rate changed by 15.7 percent while Carbon Dioxide released rose by 21.1 percent. You would think those numbers would be closer.


I see your point VA..
My thinking when I see that Chart is..
What a wobbly / unstable climate we have created..
CO2's going up..
No doubt..
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Robert Scribbler isn't a scientist . He's a writer , but he knows this stuff backwards and forwards . And his writing is outstanding.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
Quoting 719. Xandra:


Source? data?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Would be interesting to understand why CO2 growth has not increased more than it has in recent years.



From 1980-1990 it averaged growing 1.6 ppm a year, from 2000-2010 it averaged growing 1.9 ppm a year. Not that dramatic of an increase.

While Carbon Dioxide released went from 6.91 Billion tons a year to 8.76 Billion tons a year respectively.

Average growth rate changed by 15.7 percent while Carbon Dioxide released rose by 21.1 percent. You would think those numbers would be closer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 667. FLwolverine:
663 - gee, this comment (649) seems to have a wide application to the deniers amongst us: "Your lack of reading comprehension skills is nothing short of stunning."


You make a sad-but-true good point (about my sad-but-true point :D), plus
Quoting 677. JohnLonergan:

A lack of reading comprehension skills is a necessary attribute for deniers, coupled with an inate confirmation bias it makes them impervious to facts.

plus
Quoting 680. ColoradoBob1:


Don't forget narcissism.

plus
Quoting 685. Xulonn:




...Unfortunately, "influence" is a word that AGW/CC denialists, living in their little world of ignorance, confirmation bias and exercising of their Dunning-Kruger rights, seem to think is synonymous with "cause." And most AGW/CC denialists seem to be intellectually incapable of dealing with confidence levels and probabilities, insisting on black and white explanations that are not possible or realistic.

plus
Quoting 691. Neapolitan:
There are a lot of inane, illogical, and baseless claims made here in this forum by the anti-science sub-group, but that bit about how "man can't influence the climate by more than 10%" may take the cake. How completely and remarkably out of touch with reality would a person have to be to make such an insipid claim?


Combine these traits and you don't merely have ignorance fortified by stupidity but an entire world view of cultural resentment, disinterest in the challenges and humility of learning, self pity, and an apocalyptic fear of a world cast in nuances of grey instead of blunt Spartan black and white.

If you really wanna understand the world view and the rhetoric used by science deniers I'd recommend reading about the Orthogonian vs. Franklin world view that has was conceived in Nixon's devious brilliant mind and has been used by corporate paid commentators and right wing media since. It isn't R vs L or Blue vs Red, it's an Us, the social striving Average Joes, (Orthogonians) vs. them, the privileged Political/Cultural/Educational Elites, (Franklins) prism through which they view science and anything that isn't self evident.

I know this isn't related to a scientific study or backed by necessarily by empirical evidence, but I think it helps to understand the narrative being written by the people who seem to be unable to come to plausible conclusions based on even self evident facts. Might have to write something up on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Stop The War to Silence Science, End Egregious Cuts To Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Now

Here we stand at the cusp. At the brink. At the precipice of the crisis that will certainly define this century. An extraordinarily dangerous human alteration of the climate that, at its end, could be far more destructive and deadly than any war. A growing and emerging monstrosity created by us. One which, should we continue to feed it, would plunge us into the heart of one of the blackest climatological eras ever experienced on this planet.

We know there is danger. And we have known it for some time due to the clarity and accuracy of our vision. A vision provided to us by a scientific understanding of our world that is the pinnacle of human progress. For if there is one thing that we should be proud of, that we could all share in as a great victory for our race, it would be the knowledge and understanding that we have gained in our long and tempestuous rise from darkness.


Link
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Quoting 711. JohnLonergan:
See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014 /02/new-climate-science-moocs/#sthash.wREXAGKf.dpu f


I'm having trouble with th link John..
Help?
TIA..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to the world’s longest-running weather station, the Radcliffe Meteorological Station at Oxford University, more rain fell there in January than during any winter month since daily recording started in 1767. Total rainfall last month was around 5.8 inches, more than three times the average.
Link


I post this because nothing says science , like people measuring rainfall for 247 years.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
From The Huffington Post:

Peace River Oilsands Odours Hearing To Wrap Up, Report Expected Late March

CP | By The Canadian Press



PEACE RIVER, Alta. - Hearings in northwestern Alberta about odours blamed on oilsands processing have wrapped up.

People in two communities near Peace River say Baytex Energy's operations are creating powerful gassy smells that are impossible to live with.

Alberta's energy regulator called an inquiry after getting numerous complaints.

The regulator says it will now review what it heard and make recommendations in a report by March 31.

Baytex spokesman Andrew Loosely says the hearings were a rewarding experience and the company looks forward to the regulator's findings.

One former resident, Alain Lebreque, says he had to move his family out of the area because the smells were making them sick.

In an affidavit filed with the Alberta Energy Regulator, one resident complained of symptoms that included severe headaches, dizziness, sinus congestion, muscle spasms, popping ears, memory loss, numbness, constipation, diarrhea, vomiting, eye twitching and fatigue.

Baytex uses an unusual method of heating bitumen in above-ground tanks to extract oil.

Reid Glenn, a mechanical engineer, told the hearing that his personal examination of Baytex's operations suggested vapours were coming off those tanks.

"You can see the leaks on a cold day by where the steam's coming off the top of the tank,'' he said.

Geologists also described the nature of the bitumen that Baytex is drilling for, describing it as being high in sulphur. Sulphur is a common component of smelly chemicals.

Loosely has said the company is continuing its efforts to improve its practices and capture all vapours from the tanks.

Expert reports commissioned by the regulator suggest that Baytex's operations are the likeliest source of the odours.

Families affected by the smells have said they want the hearings to result in new rules for the oilpatch that deal specifically with bad odours. Current regulations only address toxic gases or gases that are released in enough quantity to be worth gathering and selling.
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Quoting 707. Xandra:
Sanders Statement on Tar Sands Pipeline

Friday, January 31, 2014

BURLINGTON, Vt., Jan. 31 – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a member of the Senate environment and energy committees, issued the following statement after the State Department released its environmental impact study of the Keystone XL pipeline:

“The State Department study turns a blind eye to the ugly reality that extracting and refining dirty tar sands oil will spew into our atmosphere more and more of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. To my mind, global warming is the most serious environmental crisis facing the world today and President Obama should block construction of the Keystone pipeline.”


It's a shame that "changes" hoped for are dashed..
I would like an explanation from the current Admin. on the logic derived in order to forward this project..
Makes no sense to me..
Well put by an Independent Senator..
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Quoting 712. Neapolitan:
Certainly the wind is a major component in the relatively low numbers in both Arctic sea ice area and extent. (Area has decreased four of the past six days, and now sits well below last year's number on the same date, and basically equal with 2012's same-date number. And in January, SIA grew by the second fewest square kilometers in the past decade-and-a-half.)

Given those numbers--and others--I think the only solid conclusion that can be drawn is that all the denialist mewling over some type of Arctic sea ice recovery was seriously premature and, well, kinda dumb...


Even Pine Beetles know better...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
Quoting 706. JohnLonergan:


I agree that the Cryosphere Today area and the JAXA extent decreases are very probably wind driven compation events. Even with +20 degree anomolies , the temperatures are still well below freezing.

Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.
Certainly the wind is a major component in the relatively low numbers in both Arctic sea ice area and extent. (Area has decreased four of the past six days, and now sits well below last year's number on the same date, and basically equal with 2012's same-date number. And in January, SIA grew by the second fewest square kilometers in the past decade-and-a-half.)

Given those numbers--and others--I think the only solid conclusion that can be drawn is that all the denialist mewling over some type of Arctic sea ice recovery was seriously premature and, well, kinda dumb...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14372
RealClimate announces New climate science MOOCs

Along with David%u2019s online class a number of new climate science MOOCs are now coming online.


A new online course from MIT, %u201CGlobal Warming Science%u201D, introduces the basic science underpinning our knowledge of the climate system, how climate has changed in the past, and how it may change in the future. The course focuses on the fundamental energy balance in the climate system, between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation, and how this balance is affected by greenhouse gases. They also discuss physical processes that shape the climate, such as atmospheric and oceanic convection and large-scale circulation, solar variability, orbital mechanics, and aerosols, as well as the evidence for past and present climate change. Climate models of varying degrees of complexity are available for students to run %u2013 including a model of a single column of the Earth%u2019s atmosphere, which includes many of the important elements of simulating climate change. Together, this range of topics forms the scientific basis for our understanding of anthropogenic (human-influenced) climate change.

Try this - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014 /02/new-climate-science-moocs/
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Tamino adds his voice:

Louder than WordsLink


WARNING: My own personal political opinions ahead.

I’ll take a break from my usual science-based posts, to comment on something I rarely even mention: what are we, as a society, going to do about man-made climate change?

In his State of the Union address, president Obama talked about climate change and about how we can no longer let deniers paralyze us. That’s great. I’m glad he said that, I think it was even necessary. Secretary of State John Kerry has also made it clear that climate change is an important issue. So far, so good.

Then, the state department releases it’s supposed “environmental impact” statement about the Keystone XL pipeline proposal. Result: KXL is now one big step closer to reality.

James Hansen has already mentioned the likely climate impact of exploiting the tar sands oil. I believe he used the expression “game over.”

Mr. President and Mr. Secretary, thanks for the lip service.
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Quoting 706. JohnLonergan:


I agree that the Cryosphere Today area and the JAXA extent decreases are very probably wind driven compation events. Even with +20 degree anomolies , the temperatures are still well below freezing.

Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.


Causes upwelling of warmer waters...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
Sanders Statement on Tar Sands Pipeline

Friday, January 31, 2014

BURLINGTON, Vt., Jan. 31 – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a member of the Senate environment and energy committees, issued the following statement after the State Department released its environmental impact study of the Keystone XL pipeline:

“The State Department study turns a blind eye to the ugly reality that extracting and refining dirty tar sands oil will spew into our atmosphere more and more of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming. To my mind, global warming is the most serious environmental crisis facing the world today and President Obama should block construction of the Keystone pipeline.”
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Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:


Large storms, like the one affecting Britain right now also break up sea ice.


I agree that the Cryosphere Today area and the JAXA extent decreases are very probably wind driven compation events. Even with +20 degree anomolies , the temperatures are still well below freezing.

Daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4227
Quoting 704. VAbeachhurricanes:


You would have to know exact quantities of how much the average ice loss during an event is.


Can we get that from the graphic? These days every bit of ice matters...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
Quoting 703. cyclonebuster:
How much higher would the ice extent be if we extrapolated it out without the vortex events? Anyone here good at that stuff?


You would have to know exact quantities of how much the average ice loss during an event is.
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How much higher would the ice extent be if we extrapolated it out without the vortex events? Anyone here good at that stuff?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:


Large storms, like the one affecting Britain right now also break up sea ice.


I suspect it allows warmer water from below to upwell and melt more ice at the surface thus we get lower extent...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
Quoting 699. cyclonebuster:
I posted this on Dr. Michael Manns Facebook page this morning with the following caption...

0-7 days after a polar vortex event we see the results in Arctic Ice extent...The warm air shunted Northward causes ice melting as depicted where the brown arrows are for the last two vortex events...We should be gaining ice in the middle of winter not losing it...




Large storms, like the one affecting Britain right now also break up sea ice.
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Quoting 688. Birthmark:

You have never supported that claim with any published science. I suspect the reason for that is that no such published science exists.


I suspect that you are right, however, here exist several peer reviewed papers that indicate that 100% or more of global is anthropogenic. Links to these papers have been posted many times, I think the denalati refuse to read then for fear their precious beliefs will be shattered.
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I posted this on Dr. Michael Manns Facebook page this morning with the following caption...

0-7 days after a polar vortex event we see the results in Arctic Ice extent...The warm air shunted Northward causes ice melting as depicted where the brown arrows are for the last two vortex events...We should be gaining ice in the middle of winter not losing it...


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20561
From DeSmogBlog:

Misinformation Is Winning – Doubt In Climate Change Climbing



Climate change-related disasters have been rising for decades; yearly temperatures are rising in a nearly consistent pattern; extreme weather events are costing economies across the globe hundreds of billions of dollars. Despite the mounting evidence that climate change is both real and a major threat to our security, more people are buying into the idea that climate change is a myth.

A new poll from Yale University and George Mason shows that the percentage of Americans who don’t believe in climate change rose 7% in 2013 to 23% of the entire population. While 63% of the general public believes that climate change is occurring, only 47% believe that human activities are to blame. The poll also revealed that less than 50% of Americans believe that climate change will affect their lives, but 65% say that it could harm future generations.

This shift in public opinion in 2013 happened during another record-breaking temperature year, with 2013 being the seventh warmest year on record.

All of the evidence points to the fact that climate change is real and that human beings are making it worse. Scientists agree that it is happening, and the physical evidence is all around us, so the big question is: why is the number of climate change deniers increasing?

The answer is that the misinformation machine has kicked into high gear, and 2013 saw a massive increase in the amount of climate change denial being given a microphone throughout various forms of media.

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Quoting 684. JohnLonergan:
From The Guardian:

If we don't put people before profits, spills like West Virginia are our future
Stronger regulation of the coal and chemical industries are the only way to ensure clean water and healthy communities

The dirty secret in President Obama's "all-of-the-above" energy policy was quietly overlooked in his State of the Union address.

Three weeks after global media attention on the West Virginia coal-chemical disaster, the most important line of information still remains buried in an AP report:

…[A] review of federal environmental enforcement records shows that nearly three-quarters of the 1,727 coal mines listed haven't been inspected in the past five years to see if they are obeying water pollution laws. Also, 13% of the fossil-fuel fired power plants are not complying with the Clean Water Act.

Translation: with federal and state blessing, the coal industry under President Obama is free to operate in a continual state of violation.

In the meantime, in the latest episode in West Virginia's coal-chemical debacle, state officials announced on Wednesday that residents affected by the latest coal-chemical disaster are inhaling formaldehyde, a known carcinogen.

"There is never peace in West Virginia," labor organizer Mary "Mother" Jones famously said nearly 100 years ago, "because there is never justice."

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The chemical plant that allowed the spill was last inspected in 1991 Link

The most concerning issue to me is, they were storing a chemical near a major waterway and apparently knew very little about the chemical or what its effects would be if it spilled.

One of the worse examples of industry over people was also caused by a WV-based chemical company. I suppose we should be thankful it wasn't a pesticide company that allowed the spill. Link
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Quoting 688. Birthmark:
You have never supported that claim with any published science. I suspect the reason for that is that no such published science exists.
Agreed. When I googled "Roy spencer human influence on climate change", I didn't find any references to 10%' but I did find an article Spencer wrote in 2012 when one of his books was published. It contained this statement.

"As of 2009, it appears that the PDO may have switched back to its cooling phase, just as it did in the 1940s. Only time will tell whether Arctic sea ice continues its return to more “normal” levels and global temperatures continue refusing to climb. Maybe in a few years “global warming” will refer to a period of history in which humanity just overreacted, rather than to predictions of future global destruction."

To which I would say "and how's that working out for you, Dr Spencer?"

http://climate.blindgoat.org/2012/11/03/from-roy- spencer/

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.