Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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144. yoboi
Quoting 131. cyclonebuster:



Isn't the United States regional?


Is the Arctic????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
143. yoboi
Quoting 133. Neapolitan:
That is one of the most disheartening, disappointing, and depressing articles I've ever read. Denialism is a disease.



Warm weather can cause many a disease.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 139. Birthmark:

Are you sure that's sediment? Bearing in mind that I'm colorblind, it looks like a phytoplankton bloom to me. It's warm enough.


Yes, lots of glacial flour coming into the ocean (the grey colors) , simulating the blue green phytoplankton bloom.

I'm not color blind.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Quoting 138. JohnLonergan:

That's hilarious! lol, for real
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 137. cynyc2:


It depends. If you burn wood, but plant a tree to replace the one you burn, then the net carbon output is neutral. Not to mention that it would be ludicrous to believe that we can just stop burning FF.

My point was that energy companies tout being green, when in actuality, they are trying to make a buck.

By the way: TEP is the second-largest investor-owned utility in Arizona.... from their website


Incorrect it takes 100 years for the new tree to grow and the the Co2 you created burning the tree takes over 1000 years to be purged from the atmosphere these days not including what went percentage went into the oceans.......
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 121. ColoradoBob1:


Aqua/MODIS
2014/025
01/25/2014
22:00 UTC


Sediment along the southern coast of Alaskahttp://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imager y/single.cgi?image=Alaska.A2014025.2200.1km.jpg

Are you sure that's sediment? Bearing in mind that I'm colorblind, it looks like a phytoplankton bloom to me. It's warm enough.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Quoting 126. cyclonebuster:


No carbon based fuel is good to burn... Period......


It depends. If you burn wood, but plant a tree to replace the one you burn, then the net carbon output is neutral. Not to mention that it would be ludicrous to believe that we can just stop burning FF.

My point was that energy companies tout being green, when in actuality, they are trying to make a buck.

By the way: TEP is the second-largest investor-owned utility in Arizona.... from their website
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 135. ColoradoBob1:
Researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks have developed a "web based atlas to let users view historical sea ice data collected between the mid-1800s and today, and compiled for display on an interactive map of the seas surrounding northern Alaska". Here's an overview of all the data sources they used to compile the historical sea ice atlas.

More background info in this Alaska Dispatch article:


New sea ice map offers a long-term look
at climate change

Link


“What stands out is that these last five or six summers are unique in the whole record in terms of ice retreat north of Alaska,” said Walsh, with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at UAF. “In the past, there was an occasional year where the ice edge goes several hundreds of miles offshore.” Those measurements were taken in September, when sea ice is at its minimum. But that didn’t happen year after year, as it has lately. “This seven-year period is unprecedented in the 160 years of data we’ve got,” Walsh said.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks have developed a "web based atlas to let users view historical sea ice data collected between the mid-1800s and today, and compiled for display on an interactive map of the seas surrounding northern Alaska". Here's an overview of all the data sources they used to compile the historical sea ice atlas.

More background info in this Alaska Dispatch article:


New sea ice map offers a long-term look
at climate change

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Quoting 132. Neapolitan:
Don't forget, the ongoing California drought will be #3--and it's still only January.


Warmer in Alaska than Alabama right now.....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 110. yonzabam:
It seems the climate denial propagandists are having some more success. The phoney 'debate' has never had as much credibility in the UK as it has had in the US.

However, a UK parliamentary committee has invited six climate sceptics to present their case.

Link
That is one of the most disheartening, disappointing, and depressing articles I've ever read. Denialism is a disease.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting 130. luvtogolf:


And the alternative is that the U.S. is about to have it's second billion dollar weather extreme due to cold weather:)
Don't forget, the ongoing California drought will be #3--and it's still only January.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting 130. luvtogolf:


And the alternative is that the U.S. is about to have it's second billion dollar weather extreme due to cold weather:)



Isn't the United States regional?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 127. cyclonebuster:



Get ready for more of these events.... What else would you expect with this happening?


And the alternative is that the U.S. is about to have it's second billion dollar weather extreme due to cold weather:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 119. JohnLonergan:
No,kriging, the technique that they use for interpolating sparse spatial data, has been gaining wide use in geodesy in this century, so it is well known in geostatistics.

It's also becoming the more widely used method to interpolate rainfall measurements as well. There seems to be at least a broad consensus that kriging in general is the best method to use when you have data with spatial correlation (data in one grid cell has a high chance of being similar to the adjacent grid cell, aka rainfall or temperature). The one downside to kriging is that you can get different results based upon different variables given to the algorithm, and I've had a hard time find a good methodology for which values to pick and when.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Quark Soup:

AGW in the Realm of the Social Sciences

"Most people think that global warming is a question for the natural sciences, that it primarily involves heat waves, melting ice sheets, droughts, and storms. True, scientific controversies have been central to public debates about global warming. However, in reality the ulimate source -- and the solutions -- lie in the realm of social sciences."

-- William Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Quoting 120. ColoradoBob1:
Warm temps blamed for massive avalanche that cut off Alaskan town

The 50-mile stretch of rural road might not be reopened for a week, and observers say a collapse of this magnitude appears unprecedented for the area.

“This avalanche cycle is a historically significant event,” said Sarah Carter, education coordinator and forecaster with the Alaska Avalanche Information Center in Valdez.

She said it’s not uncommon to see avalanches, but the abnormal, above-freezing temperatures over the past 10 days – coupled with the rainfall – have weakened the snow pack.


Link



Get ready for more of these events.... What else would you expect with this happening?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 113. cynyc2:


It is my understanding, that Tucson Electric Power (TEP) is doing the same thing - converting from coal to gas. It is ironic, as TEP used to generate all of their electricity from natural gas, until coal became cheaper to use. Now they are in the process of switching back to gas.

As a side note, you hear a lot of right wingers talk that Obama's killing coal, when in actuality, it is the very free market that they worship so, that is doing the killing. Natural gas is just to cheap to not use. Of course, I don't expect natural gas to remain cheap for much longer - those fracked wells have a shorter life span than anticipated.


No carbon based fuel is good to burn... Period......
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 123. Physicistretired:


I don't have enough history of that area to know how rare this phenomenon is in January, Bob (although, given the current heat wave in Alaska, I think it's probably not 'typical').

Do you?


Dr. Masters -
Record warmth and precipitation in Alaska
As of January 26, 13.83" of precipitation had fallen in Valdez during the month of January. This is more than 8" above average for this point in the month, and close to the all-time record for January precipitation of 15.18", set in 2001 (records go back to 1972.) With more rain on the way Monday and Tuesday, this record could easily fall. Numerous locations in Southeast Alaska have beaten their rainiest January day on record marks.


Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Quoting 123. Physicistretired:


I don't have enough history of that area to know how rare this phenomenon is in January, Bob (although, given the current heat wave in Alaska, I think it's probably not 'typical').

Do you?


Seems to me , the discharge along the coast wouldn't be possible in January if it hadn't been raining . It's 50F degrees at the Bering Glacier just East of there.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Quoting 121. ColoradoBob1:


Aqua/MODIS
2014/025
01/25/2014
22:00 UTC


Sediment along the southern coast of Alaskahttp://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imager y/single.cgi?image=Alaska.A2014025.2200.1km.jpg


I don't have enough history of that area to know how rare this phenomenon is in January, Bob (although, given the current heat wave in Alaska, I think it's probably not 'typical').

Do you?
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting 119. JohnLonergan:
No,kriging, the technique that they use for interpolating sparse spatial data, has been gaining wide use in geodesy in this century, so it is well known in geostatistics.


On a side note, I was most pleased to see SkS's inclusion of the impact of El Nino-La Nina effects on annual global temperatures:



If NASA was tracking that before Nielsen-Gammon's analysis of that trend (beginning in 2012), I missed it. I certainly never saw it on the NASA site before last week. It makes a most compelling case for the trends we've been seeing.

And it also lays to rest the Talking Point that climate scientists 'ignore' natural variability...
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting 120. ColoradoBob1:
Warm temps blamed for massive avalanche that cut off Alaskan town

The 50-mile stretch of rural road might not be reopened for a week, and observers say a collapse of this magnitude appears unprecedented for the area.

“This avalanche cycle is a historically significant event,” said Sarah Carter, education coordinator and forecaster with the Alaska Avalanche Information Center in Valdez.

She said it’s not uncommon to see avalanches, but the abnormal, above-freezing temperatures over the past 10 days – coupled with the rainfall – have weakened the snow pack.


Link


Aqua/MODIS
2014/025
01/25/2014
22:00 UTC


Sediment along the southern coast of Alaskahttp://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imager y/single.cgi?image=Alaska.A2014025.2200.1km.jpg
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Warm temps blamed for massive avalanche that cut off Alaskan town

The 50-mile stretch of rural road might not be reopened for a week, and observers say a collapse of this magnitude appears unprecedented for the area.

“This avalanche cycle is a historically significant event,” said Sarah Carter, education coordinator and forecaster with the Alaska Avalanche Information Center in Valdez.

She said it’s not uncommon to see avalanches, but the abnormal, above-freezing temperatures over the past 10 days – coupled with the rainfall – have weakened the snow pack.


Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3008
Quoting 117. Physicistretired:


Agreed - it is rather quick.

But I agree with Rahmstorf - because the methodology seems solid, and it fills a substantial gap (at least 16%, including the fastest-warming area on the planet - the Arctic) in our global temperature record.

Do you have reservations about that work?
No,kriging, the technique that they use for interpolating sparse spatial data, has been gaining wide use in geodesy in this century, so it is well known in geostatistics.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Quoting 59. FLwolverine:
57 - yes, it's really cold out there. Thanks for the weather report.
LOL, yes. The guy reports a daily record low of 7 degrees on one Tuesday in time. However I have been in Birmingham when it was below 0 degrees F. So actually Tuesday was 7 degrees warmer...go figure. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 116. JohnLonergan:


It is surprising Stefan Rahmstorf considers the work of Cowton & Way as the best. I only say this their paper only came out last fall, this is rather quick acceptance.




Agreed - it is rather quick.

But I agree with Rahmstorf - because the methodology seems solid, and it fills a substantial gap (at least 16%, including the fastest-warming area on the planet - the Arctic) in our global temperature record.

Do you have reservations about that work?
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting 115. Physicistretired:


You left out the 'punchline', John:



There are so many excellent charts and graphs i there, I couldnt do justice to all of them. On my second reading I was stuck by this statement in the conclusions:

The year 1998 is, at best, rank 3 – in the currently best data set of Cowtan & Way, 1998 is actually only ranked 7th. Even 2013 is – without El Niño – warmer there than 1998.


It is surprising Stefan Rahmstorf considers the work of Cowton & Way as the best. I only say this their paper only came out last fall, this is rather quick acceptance.


See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014 /01/global-temperature-2013/#sthash.QCan3aR4.dpuf
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Quoting 114. JohnLonergan:
RealClimate's analysis of 2013 global temperatures is out:

Global temperature 2013

The global temperature data for 2013 are now published. 2010 and 2005 remain the warmest years since records began in the 19th Century. 1998 ranks third in two records, and in the analysis of Cowtan & Way, which interpolates the data-poor region in the Arctic with a better method, 2013 is warmer than 1998 (even though 1998 was a record El Nino year, and 2013 was neutral).

The end of January, when the temperature measurements of the previous year are in, is always the time to take a look at the global temperature trend. (And, as the Guardian noted aptly, also the time where the “climate science denialists feverishly yell [...] that global warming stopped in 1998.”)

More »


You left out the 'punchline', John:



Do you see a 'hiatus'? Neither do I.

I see a 50-year-long weakening Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) trend:



and a relative absence of strong, warming El Nino events since 1998:



And yet we continue to warm.
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
RealClimate's analysis of 2013 global temperatures is out:

Global temperature 2013

The global temperature data for 2013 are now published. 2010 and 2005 remain the warmest years since records began in the 19th Century. 1998 ranks third in two records, and in the analysis of Cowtan & Way, which interpolates the data-poor region in the Arctic with a better method, 2013 is warmer than 1998 (even though 1998 was a record El Nino year, and 2013 was neutral).

The end of January, when the temperature measurements of the previous year are in, is always the time to take a look at the global temperature trend. (And, as the Guardian noted aptly, also the time where the “climate science denialists feverishly yell [...] that global warming stopped in 1998.”)

More »
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
Quoting 49. Naga5000:
So Orlando Utilities Commission is making some strides. They are converting our coal power plants to partially run on natural gas, something they were never intended to do. It's a small step, but one that shows OUC is willing to spend money on cleaner forms of energy. Link


It is my understanding, that Tucson Electric Power (TEP) is doing the same thing - converting from coal to gas. It is ironic, as TEP used to generate all of their electricity from natural gas, until coal became cheaper to use. Now they are in the process of switching back to gas.

As a side note, you hear a lot of right wingers talk that Obama's killing coal, when in actuality, it is the very free market that they worship so, that is doing the killing. Natural gas is just to cheap to not use. Of course, I don't expect natural gas to remain cheap for much longer - those fracked wells have a shorter life span than anticipated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 110. yonzabam:
It seems the climate denial propagandists are having some more success. The phoney 'debate' has never had as much credibility in the UK as it has had in the US.

However, a UK parliamentary committee has invited six climate sceptics to present their case.

Link


One can literally track the rise in national climate 'skepticism' by the increased percentage of media outlets owned by Murdoch, yonzabm.

First the US, then Australia, now Canada and the UK.

You have my sympathies. We are quite tired of dealing with it here.
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting 72. martinitony:
An article from Garth Paltridge


Dr. Paltridge supports the view that our current global warming is indeed caused by humans. I quote him directly:

"In one limited sense the members of the “do something about global warming” lobby are correct.

If humans insist on giving the atmosphere an extra dose of carbon dioxide, then indeed one can expect Earth’s surface temperature to rise. To be strictly accurate, we should say that its temperature will be higher than it would have been otherwise.

Either way, it doesn’t take a lot of physical knowledge and insight to accept the statement. It is rather the equivalent of saying that if one hits something with a bat then that something will respond.

So it is true, as the lobby delights in telling us at every opportunity, that there is no longer much argument among scientists about the existence of the greenhouse global warming phenomenon.

There never was."


Where Paltridge pushes back is, specifically, on the uncertainty surrounding cloud formation in response to excess CO2.

Paltridge maintains that cloud formation will change in a way that provides a net negative feedback - giving the planet a much-needed 'umbrella' to shield us from the sun's rays. That will be true if global warming enhances cloud formation in the upper levels of our atmosphere.

But if a changing cloud formation response results in increased clouds in the lower levels of our atmosphere (as current research and observations indicate), the net feedback will be positive - creating even more warming.

The recent IPCC report gave a range for climate sensitivity (the response of our climate to each doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels) of 1.5C - 4.5C. But research published after the release of that report indicates a lower bound of 3C - meaning that our warming will be in the upper end of that range:

Cloud mystery solved: Global temperatures to rise at least 4°C by 2100

Global average temperatures will rise at least 4°C by 2100 and potentially more than 8°C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced according to new research published in Nature. Scientists found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.





As you can see from that image, newer, more-sensitive climate models predict a higher climate sensitivity. And that higher sensitivity matches actual observations.

Also recommended, this 3-minute video by the study's author, explain his research (and why we should stop being 'optimistic' about clouds):

Link

Dr. Paltridge is entitled to his opinions. I would advise him to do the hard work that others have been willing to do to support those opinions with actual research.
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
It seems the climate denial propagandists are having some more success. The phoney 'debate' has never had as much credibility in the UK as it has had in the US.

However, a UK parliamentary committee has invited six climate sceptics to present their case.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. yoboi
Quoting 108. cyclonebuster:
With our demise so near we can't avoid this question you hear?

So whats the solution so we don't have to live with this for next 1000 years?


apply the Jilly Jenkins heat transfer process.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
With our demise so near we can't avoid this question you hear?

So whats the solution so we don't have to live with this for next 1000 years?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Dr. Rood,

Regarding Dr. Trenberth's hypothesis:

'Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.'

I have not seen any quantitative analysis by Trenberth to show that this is true. Are you aware of any?
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Another informative entry Dr. Rood. Thank you for posting the links to the recorded Webinars. I look forward to watching Ms. Francis' series as this appears to be quite applicable given the current events mid-latitude and even further south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
105. yoboi
Quoting 89. FLwolverine:
I think Steyn wrote this himself after his lawyers withdrew from representation, ie, dumped him. But I have seen similar rubbish written by lawyers - the style is called "throw in everything you can possibly say because there's no legal basis for this motion".

And about Daisyworld's post - you, yoboi, have raised the climategate emails and the Nobel prize question as possible important aspects of this case. Although the post may have been a bit harsh, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that you are not sympathetic to Mann in ths matter.



Actually I am sympathectic to Mann.....Nobody and I mean NOBODY should be compared to sanduscky unless they did the same thing he did.....And I have know reason to believe Mann is that type of guy....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 103. schwankmoe:


nor can i.
Nor can the denialists. Of course, that's the plan...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting 99. Birthmark:

I can't for the life of me think of a single thing that the denialist community has added to our understanding of climate.


nor can i.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 101. Cochise111:

Link
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 98. Naga5000:


The problem is, Garth Paltridge is not a credible source. He has exactly 0 publications on climate science. His opinion pieces are just that, opinion. They should not, and do not, carry the same weight as a peer reviewed publication and are thusly treated as irrelevant.
Garth Paltridge is an old, retired atmospheric physicist, but like Curry, Spencer, Lindzen and others, he has earned little, if any, respect in the modern scientific community, especially considering his scientific career.

But if you look at the information below, which I found in a UK Spectator article, it taints his credibility as an independent, unbiased scientist:

Garth Paltridge worked as a Postdoctoral Fellow at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. In addition, he was also seconded as Director of the Environmental Executive of the Institute of Petroleum. Therefore, it appears that he has an agenda. His close associations with oil and mining companies most certainly have a negative impact on his credibility and, indeed, such employment by mining corporations would seriously impact on his ability to report climate change with any degree of impartiality."


Ian Enting of The University of Melbourne is part of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, which has been funded by the Australian Research Council. He also receives small amounts from the sales of his books: "Inverse Problems in Atmospheric Constituent Transport" and "Twisted: The Distorted Mathematics of Greenhouse Denial". Here's what he has to say about Paltridge at theconversation.com in a piece entitled: "Rogues or respectable? How climate change sceptics spread doubt and denial."

Quoting Ian Engting:
"Finally, there is Garth Paltridge’s own book, The Climate Caper. This contains little science at all.

It is mainly about the institutional pressures that act on scientists. I agree with much of what Garth says, but my observation is that the pressures have largely acted in the opposite direction, inhibiting communication of mainstream climate science when governments found the implications inconvenient.

Thus organisations such as CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology remain muted on the inadequacy of proposals from both sides of politics.

Even those who support Garth’s views think that his book would have been more credible, more “respectable” perhaps, if he had chosen someone other than Monckton - indeed almost anyone other than Monckton - to write the foreword.

Scientists who claim genuinely respectable scepticism destroy their own case when they link their arguments to those who mis-use and misrepresent the processes of science.

Such links expose the activities of groups like the Galileo Movement for what they are: exercises in spreading confusion for political ends."

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Quoting 94. Xulonn:
Is it possible that there is a struggle between persistent blocking and wobbles/meanders of the jet stream? Features like the Pacific anomaly that I believe has been in place for almost a year are things I am aware of, but do not fully understand.

That makes two of us. I read somewhere (isn't that a great source?) that that warm anomaly isn't that uncommon with a negative PDO.

Quoting 94. Xulonn:
Also, the relationship between the equatorial trade winds, SST's and ENSO episodes seem to be very difficult to analyze and understand.

It's interesting to study...for some. For me, it's one of those fiddly-bits that drives me up the wall. Hey, nobody's prefect.

Quoting 94. Xulonn:
It is sadly amusing as the AGW/CC denialist community belittles the scientific community for attempting to model these complex and interrelated features and subsystems that are part of the global climate system, and that affect weather worldwide. Perhaps they simply prefer to remain ignorant, and to be filled with doubt and confusion.

I can't for the life of me think of a single thing that the denialist community has added to our understanding of climate. That alone demonstrates that their interest isn't in science.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 96. martinitony:


Yes, actually you are representative of the problem, aren't you?
When one can't find fault with the argument, one attacks the arguer. You're the professional on this board at that. You do a good job, too. But, I think, or I hope, some here will see thru the shill that you are.


The problem is, Garth Paltridge is not a credible source. He has exactly 0 publications on climate science. His opinion pieces are just that, opinion. They should not, and do not, carry the same weight as a peer reviewed publication and are thusly treated as irrelevant.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3894
Quoting 96. martinitony:


Yes, actually you are representative of the problem, aren't you?
When one can't find fault with the argument, one attacks the arguer. You're the professional on this board at that. You do a good job, too. But, I think, or I hope, some here will see thru the shill that you are.

He usually does start first with showing actual data. But see, here is the problem. When certain individuals come to this board for the sole reason of stirring things up, and when those same individuals keep showing the same nonsense over and over after having had that actual "fault with the argument" shown, is it still worth the effort to keep replying the same way? Should one keep replying as if there is a rational debate?

Sometimes we reach the point where it is no longer the claims/arguments that are the issue, it's the person making them. At that point, it's worthless to focus on the claims anymore.
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Quoting 73. Neapolitan:


1) It's not cool to quote verbatim an entire article, and certainly not without at least providing links.

2) We've already discussed both Paltridge's lack of knowledge on modern climate science and his affinity for making money feeding at the teat of Big Oil. Can you find someone else?


Yes, actually you are representative of the problem, aren't you?
When one can't find fault with the argument, one attacks the arguer. You're the professional on this board at that. You do a good job, too. But, I think, or I hope, some here will see thru the shill that you are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 86. Cochise111:
The global warming that wasn't:

Link
Wow! Did that denialist lie get slapped down quickly with the facts, or what?

Nea - you may be sarcastic at times (something I would never do, of course!), but your facts and evidence are almost always spot on and verifiable.

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Quoting 77. Birthmark:

I generally agree, but I wouldn't bet it's here to stay, though. I expect all kinds of strange...stuff as the system wobbles around trying to find stability.

(Note: IANAC-I am not a climatologist)
Is it possible that there is a struggle between persistent blocking and wobbles/meanders of the jet stream? Features like the Pacific anomaly that I believe has been in place for almost a year are things I am aware of, but do not fully understand.

Also, the relationship between the equatorial trade winds, SST's and ENSO episodes seem to be very difficult to analyze and understand.

It is sadly amusing as the AGW/CC denialist community belittles the scientific community for attempting to model these complex and interrelated features and subsystems that are part of the global climate system, and that affect weather worldwide. Perhaps they simply prefer to remain ignorant, and to be filled with doubt and confusion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.