Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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Quoting 999. cyclonebuster:


More like a subtropical cyclone.. The only difference is if it happened today it would be a hurricane...
Yeah,with more hype than ever before! Got it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1035. Cochise111:


Why is "extreme" weather at an all-time low then? Record lows for hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, etc. Take off the blinders.

Again, you seem to just say things and think that makes them true. If you don't provide evidence of your dubious claims, then no one should take your claims seriously.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1039. yoboi:



If someone would link that much information it would crash the server here.....

Uh-huh. Soooo...there's no evidence of a government/scientist conspiracy, as I (and the vast majority of people) have suspected.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Unfortunately I think most of the scientists bring fired for not "toeing the line" are in Canada where the gov. won't allow them to comment on climate matters.

Terry
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1040. Patrap
Well that's mo "fantasy stuff" from yer own brain, as the blogs on the BUSIEST day only use 2-3 % of the wu server's capacity.

Go Phish.
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1038. Patrap
You'd think maybe the denialsphere could bring something new, or at least something kinda "sciencey" to this entry.

I mean really.

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Quoting 1034. Cochise111:


"Disingenuous mercenary"? Give me a break. Almost every AGW proponent's entire life is dependent on government funding. Talk about disingenuous. If they don't toe the government line, they lose their funding and their salaries. Lindzen is one scientist who has the courage to actually buck the establishment. The rest of them, like Mikey Mann are simply government-funded hacks.

Ooooh, a conspiracy theory! Neat. Now, if only you had some evidence that climate scientists' "toe the government line" it would be some sort of basis in reality rather than a paranoid fantasy.

Please list all climate scientists who have lost their funding and their salaries for failing to "toe the government line."

Please provide evidence as to which government is drawing the line that must be toed.

Lindzen doesn't buck the trend, he comes up with crackpot hypotheses to avoid the truth. And he does it for money. He also claimed that smoking doesn't cause cancer. He is, as I said, a disingenuous mercenary.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1034. Cochise111:


"Disingenuous mercenary"? Give me a break. Almost every AGW proponent's entire life is dependent on government funding. Talk about disingenuous. If they don't toe the government line, they lose their funding and their salaries. Lindzen is one scientist who has the courage to actually buck the establishment. The rest of them, like Mikey Mann are simply government-funded hacks.


You really believe this drivel don't you? This statement shows you have no clue how science and research funding works. At least you're back to claiming conspiracy instead of warming but not in the last 15, wait no 16 years. Remember, be consistent.
You're a funny one, NeapolitanFan
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3965
Quoting 1019. Patrap:
As we continue to keep adding CO2 by the Giga-tonnes to the atmosphere,we can expect to keep seeing more squirrlier and weird weather events from the forcing's taken over.

Buckle up for 2014.




Why is "extreme" weather at an all-time low then? Record lows for hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, etc. Take off the blinders.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
Quoting 1032. Birthmark:

Nah, he's a disingenuous mercenary, but not a troll.


"Disingenuous mercenary"? Give me a break. Almost every AGW proponent's entire life is dependent on government funding. Talk about disingenuous. If they don't toe the government line, they lose their funding and their salaries. Lindzen is one scientist who has the courage to actually buck the establishment. The rest of them, like Mikey Mann are simply government-funded hacks.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Frank Zappa on Energy Efficiency

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
Quoting 1012. Cochise111:


I guess Dr. Richard Lindzen would be a troll as well.

Nah, he's a disingenuous mercenary, but not a troll.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 1011. Cochise111:
Figures lie and liars figure. Show me the warming:

Link

Your link proves your first sentence...though not the way you intended.

As for showing you the warming...no probs!

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1030. Patrap
Arctic Lakes Losing Ice

By Becky Oskin, Staff Writer | February 04, 2014 01:50pm ET


Alaska's Arctic lakes now freeze later and thaw earlier in the year than in 1950, leaving them vulnerable to water loss from evaporation and possibly adding to local warming, a new study finds.

The winter ice season near Barrow, Alaska, is 24 days shorter than in 1950, researchers reported Jan. 30 in the journal The Cryosphere. Lake ice is also thinner each winter. The scientists surveyed 402 lakes on the North Slope, the tundra-covered region where permafrost (permanently frozen ground) and shallow lakes dominate the terrain. In 2011, the lake ice was 38 percent thinner than in 1950, and 22 percent fewer lakes froze through to their bottoms.

"When we saw the actual numbers we were shocked at how dramatic the change has been," lead study author Cristina Surdu, of the University of Waterloo in Canada, said in a statement.


Surdu and her co-authors analyzed the changes in lake-ice thickness and ice cover with satellite images and climate model simulations (satellite images are only available from 1991).

The climate models suggest the Arctic lakes froze almost six days later and broke up about 18 days earlier in the winter of 2011 compared with the winter of 1950.

"The changes in ice and the shortened winter affect Northern communities that depend on ice roads to transport goods," Surdu said. For example, every winter, oil companies build haul roads over frozen lakes to carry supplies to Prudhoe Bay.

"The dramatic changes in lake ice may also contribute to further warming of the entire region, because open water on lakes contributes to warmer air temperatures, albeit to a lesser extent than open seawater," Surdu said.

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, for reasons that may include its layered atmosphere, which traps heat, and the loss of sea ice and snow cover, which when present help reflect the sun's energy. The average air temperature in Barrow has increased by 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 degrees Celsius) from 2000 to 2010. (Global mean temperatures rose about 0.2 degrees F, or about 0.11 degrees C.)


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1028. Patrap
That's 150 feet per day, as I linked in the article yesterday at one point.
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The Jakobshavn Isbræ is moving 46 metres per day in the summer .

Remember that next summer when they clock it's speed again.

Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Quoting 1017. JohnLonergan:
I. Joughin et al., Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ
Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ

Abstract


We have extended the record of flow speed on Jakobshavn Isbræ through the summer of 2013. These new data reveal large seasonal speedups, 30 to 50% greater than previous summers. At a point a few kilometres inland from the terminus, the mean annual speed for 2012 is nearly three times as great as that in the mid-1990s, while the peak summer speeds are more than a factor of four greater. These speeds were achieved as the glacier terminus appears to have retreated to the bottom of an over-deepened basin with a depth of ~ 1300 m below sea level. The terminus is likely to reach the deepest section of the trough within a few decades, after which it could rapidly retreat to the shallower regions ~ 50 km farther upstream, potentially by the end of this century.

Citation: Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Shean, D. E., and Floricioiu, D.: Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ, The Cryosphere, 8, 209-214, doi: 10.5194/tc-8-209-2014, 2014.



Jakobshavn Glacier the World's Fastest, Picking-up Speed

By Colorado Bob
Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:09 AM


“In the story , they report that around the year 2000 the Jakobshavn started to pick-up speed. It went from the "normal" speed of around less than 1 foot a day to 113 feet a day in 5 years. This was widely reported then, so it's a pretty good benchmark. The program aired in July of 2005, so this morning I went looking to see what the Jakobshavn was doing 2 years later............So, it went from 113 feet a day in 2005 to 135 a day in 2007 ..... 22 feet a day faster.
In 2 years, the Jakobshavn Glacier has increased it's speed by nearly 20%.

Link
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Quoting 1024. ColoradoBob1:
North Dakota at night.



The big picture -
Link
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North Dakota at night.

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Quoting 1020. CaneFreeCR:
Not on the current topic but a (to me) worrying question: Has there been any study of the volume and effects of the flaring of gas in the Western North Dakota oil fields? It seems to me that with the huge volume of gas, essentially all of which is evidently flared (since there is no infrastructure for collecting and using it) the addition of a lot of black carbon and CO2, as well as probably a lot of methane, to the atmosphere, in a region in which the jet stream can pick it up readily and mix it thoroughly and carry it around the world, could be trouble. It seems to me to not be insignificant!


Here are two links I found quickly:

Too Much Flaring of Natural Gas? How a Carbon Tax could Help

and

Report: Emissions From North Dakota Flaring Equivalent To One Million Cars Per Year

Try this google search for more:

https://www.google.com/#q=++how+much+co2+is+relea sed+by+natural+gas+flaring
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
If the drought is so serious, why not insist on something stronger?

Because Supply Side Jesus is gonna take care of everything.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Quoting 1020. CaneFreeCR:
Not on the current topic but a (to me) worrying question: Has there been any study of the volume and effects of the flaring of gas in the Western North Dakota oil fields? It seems to me that with the huge volume of gas, essentially all of which is evidently flared (since there is no infrastructure for collecting and using it) the addition of a lot of black carbon and CO2, as well as probably a lot of methane, to the atmosphere, in a region in which the jet stream can pick it up readily and mix it thoroughly and carry it around the world, could be trouble. It seems to me to not be insignificant!


From Ceres:

FLARING UP

...Ceres’ analysis of North Dakota oil and gas production data indicates that absolute volumes of flared gas have more than doubled between May 2011 and May 2013.

In 2012 alone, flaring resulted in the loss of approximately $1 billion in fuel and the GHG emissions equivalent of adding one million cars to the road.

In addition, Ceres’ projections indicate that total flaring volumes will continue to rise above 2012 levels through 2020 unless the percentage of flaring is
reduced from its current level to below 21 percent.

Furthermore, even if the state’s goal of 10
percent flaring were achieved, total volumes of flared gas in 2020 would still exceed the amount
flared in 2010.

These findings underscore the importance of solving the problem of flaring in order to limit both environmental impacts and economic waste.


Lots more at the link. I'm sure there are other studies out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not on the current topic but a (to me) worrying question: Has there been any study of the volume and effects of the flaring of gas in the Western North Dakota oil fields? It seems to me that with the huge volume of gas, essentially all of which is evidently flared (since there is no infrastructure for collecting and using it) the addition of a lot of black carbon and CO2, as well as probably a lot of methane, to the atmosphere, in a region in which the jet stream can pick it up readily and mix it thoroughly and carry it around the world, could be trouble. It seems to me to not be insignificant!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1019. Patrap
As we continue to keep adding CO2 by the Giga-tonnes to the atmosphere,we can expect to keep seeing more squirrlier and weird weather events from the forcing's taken over.

Buckle up for 2014.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Coal Train Blues
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
I. Joughin et al., Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ
Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ

Abstract


We have extended the record of flow speed on Jakobshavn Isbræ through the summer of 2013. These new data reveal large seasonal speedups, 30 to 50% greater than previous summers. At a point a few kilometres inland from the terminus, the mean annual speed for 2012 is nearly three times as great as that in the mid-1990s, while the peak summer speeds are more than a factor of four greater. These speeds were achieved as the glacier terminus appears to have retreated to the bottom of an over-deepened basin with a depth of ~ 1300 m below sea level. The terminus is likely to reach the deepest section of the trough within a few decades, after which it could rapidly retreat to the shallower regions ~ 50 km farther upstream, potentially by the end of this century.

Citation: Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Shean, D. E., and Floricioiu, D.: Brief Communication: Further summer speedup of Jakobshavn Isbræ, The Cryosphere, 8, 209-214, doi: 10.5194/tc-8-209-2014, 2014.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
Editorial from The Los Angeles Times:

Why not get tough on water use, California?
If the state's drought is as bad as Gov. Brown says, why settle for voluntary conservation?

To hear Gov. Jerry Brown tell it, California is in a "mega drought" — perhaps the worst dry spell it's ever known. So why does he keep calling for voluntary water conservation?
The governor met with Southern California water officials Thursday morning and, again, they bemoaned the seriousness of the drought. Yet the general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California — the wholesaler that delivers most of the region's water supply — reiterated the governor's call for voluntary reductions in water use by 20%.
If the drought is so serious, why not insist on something stronger?


More ...


Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
Quoting 1011. Cochise111:
Figures lie and liars figure. Show me the warming:

Link


Wait is it warming, but it's natural? Is it warming, but it's okay because there are more negative feedbacks? Or is it not warming because of conspiracy? Or not warming because...oh I give up. The denialist contradiction machine is too hard to keep up with.

Oh and nice U.S. report, I look forward to the global one.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3965
Quoting 1012. Cochise111:


I guess Dr. Richard Lindzen would be a troll as well.


Nope he's a schill
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
1013. etxwx
From the rural front, Policy briefing analyzes US climate change via phys.org linked to this: The National Agricultural & Rural Development Policy Center (NARDeP) has just released a series of policy briefs focused on energy in the U.S. The list of briefs can be found here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1003. JohnLonergan:


I just went through the comment thread, where I found this from The Guardian:

Dealing with trolls: a guide

1. Know your troll. A troll is someone who persistently seeks to derail rational discourse through mindless abuse, needling, hectoring, or even threats of violence. A troll is not someone who disagrees with you, dislikes your work or disapproves of your moral choices. That's an idiot.

2. The line is not always so easy to draw. There is a grey area between spirited dissent and out-and-out trolling that houses the passionately misinformed, the casually profane, schoolchildren taking the piss and otherwise intelligent people who don't put spaces after commas. For the sake of convenience this group is often referred to as "the internet".

3. Don't feed the trolls. Trolling is one of those rare problems best handled by ignoring it – if you do, it usually goes away. Trolls want your attention and discomfiture; they feed on your impotent rage. If they're trying to be funny, your willingness to rise to the bait provides the punchline. If you don't, there's no joke. The secret to withholding attention is consistency: never respond. That way, the trolls can't even be sure you've read their abuse.

4. Unmask your troll. Trolls thrive on anonymity, but they're not, in my experience, too careful about guarding it. A little digging will usually turn up something that makes their bile seem beside the point. The information you uncover needn't include names, addresses or photographs – just enough to turn your rage into pity. I, for example, enjoy reading the blogs of people who tell me I can't write.

5. Remember: it's not allowed. Trolling is unwelcome on most moderated sites (including the Guardian's), bullying is a violation of Facebook policy and Twitter has rules against making threats. Ignore the trolls, but don't just ignore them. Click those Report Abuse buttons.

6. You don't have to provide a platform. If you host your own website with a forum or comments section, feel free to delete offensive or abusive material. People may tell you this is either a violation of free speech or a cowardly attempt to stifle debate but, generally speaking, these people are trolls.


I guess Dr. Richard Lindzen would be a troll as well.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
Figures lie and liars figure. Show me the warming:

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
New post at RealClimate:

Exploring CRUTEM4 with Google Earth

The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land surface air temperature data set, CRUTEM4, can now be explored using Google Earth. Access is via this portal together with instructions for using it (though it is quite intuitive).

It looks very interesting to me and very useful to the geographically inclined.



More »
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
Quoting 1003. JohnLonergan:
1. Know your troll. A troll is someone who persistently seeks to derail rational discourse through mindless abuse, needling, hectoring, or even threats of violence.
Funny, that doesn't seem to part of the definition on here.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2444
Dramatic thinning of Arctic lake ice cuts winter ice season by 24 days compared to 1950


Date:

February 3, 2014


Source:

University of Waterloo


Summary:


Arctic lakes have been freezing up later in the year and thawing earlier, creating a winter ice season about 24 days shorter than it was in 1950, a new study has found.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Don't feed the trolls. Trolling is one of those rare problems best handled by ignoring it – if you do, it usually goes away.

Trolls want your attention and discomfiture; they feed on your impotent rage. If they're trying to be funny, your willingness to rise to the bait provides the punchline. If you don't, there's no joke.

The secret to withholding attention is consistency: never respond. That way, the trolls can't even be sure you've read their abuse.


QED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sydney has recorded its lowest summer rainfall to date in more than 70 years, as the state swelters through its driest January in more than a decade.

Drying out

Three big heatwaves have hit the state this year, the latest one still searing its way across southern parts of the state on Monday. Hay Airport clocked up 45.5 degrees, Deniliquin a fourth day of at least 43, while Canberra set a record for the most days of 37 or warmer with its sixth such day.

Sydney, while shielded from the worst of the blasts of summer by sea breezes, is also drying out.

Last month alone, Sydney collected just 17.4 millimetres of rain, or less than a fifth of the long-term average, making it the driest January since 2003. Temperatures were about 1 degree above average for the city.

For NSW, maximum temperatures last month were 2.7 degrees above average, the 10th highest, adding to farmers' woes.


Read more: Link
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Climate change set to give us a home without the gumtrees


While carbon dioxide alone may contribute to additional plant growth, rising heat extremes and rainfall shortages could counter any gains. ''No matter how much carbon dioxide there is, there will become a point where water limitation will override that. What the climate projections are suggesting is that the seasonality of rainfall will increase so there will be longer dry seasons,'' Dr Butt said.

One expected change is the shift of open woodland areas to savannah-like conditions, with more grassland.

As eucalypt ecosystems adjust to cope with warmer and drier conditions it is predicted that trees may shift their ranges towards the coast where growing conditions are more favourable, Dr Butt said.



Read more:Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Quoting 992. FLwolverine:
Peter Sinclair has an interesting post over at Climate Denial Crock of the Week today: Do Trolls Make Us Dumber?. Spoiler alert: not always.

But even more interesting to me was the embedded video debunking the denier meme "temperature always leads CO2". Excellent presentation.

NB to the denialists amongst us: I'm presenting the video as a discussion/explanation of the peer reviewed science, not as the science itself, so don't make any false comparisons to the 10% argument attempted (badly) yesterday.

Ridiculous that I should have to point that out on a science blog!


I just went through the comment thread, where I found this from The Guardian:

Dealing with trolls: a guide

1. Know your troll. A troll is someone who persistently seeks to derail rational discourse through mindless abuse, needling, hectoring, or even threats of violence. A troll is not someone who disagrees with you, dislikes your work or disapproves of your moral choices. That's an idiot.

2. The line is not always so easy to draw. There is a grey area between spirited dissent and out-and-out trolling that houses the passionately misinformed, the casually profane, schoolchildren taking the piss and otherwise intelligent people who don't put spaces after commas. For the sake of convenience this group is often referred to as "the internet".

3. Don't feed the trolls. Trolling is one of those rare problems best handled by ignoring it – if you do, it usually goes away. Trolls want your attention and discomfiture; they feed on your impotent rage. If they're trying to be funny, your willingness to rise to the bait provides the punchline. If you don't, there's no joke. The secret to withholding attention is consistency: never respond. That way, the trolls can't even be sure you've read their abuse.

4. Unmask your troll. Trolls thrive on anonymity, but they're not, in my experience, too careful about guarding it. A little digging will usually turn up something that makes their bile seem beside the point. The information you uncover needn't include names, addresses or photographs – just enough to turn your rage into pity. I, for example, enjoy reading the blogs of people who tell me I can't write.

5. Remember: it's not allowed. Trolling is unwelcome on most moderated sites (including the Guardian's), bullying is a violation of Facebook policy and Twitter has rules against making threats. Ignore the trolls, but don't just ignore them. Click those Report Abuse buttons.

6. You don't have to provide a platform. If you host your own website with a forum or comments section, feel free to delete offensive or abusive material. People may tell you this is either a violation of free speech or a cowardly attempt to stifle debate but, generally speaking, these people are trolls.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3668
Never mind the restrictions on watering your lawn. The drought is drying up California’s supply of hydroelectricity, prompting SMUD and other utilities around the state to scramble.

With summer’s peak electricity demand season looming, officials who oversee California’s power supply say they don’t expect blackouts but are getting nervous about the meager snowpack. Few states rely on hydro as much as California, where water accounts for about 15 percent of the total power supply in a normal year.


Read more here: Link
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Quoting 998. Neapolitan:
Oh, those pranksters! At the same time, look what they are doing in Europe:

A quarter of Slovenians have been left without electricity, as parts of Europe battle some of the worst winter blizzards for decades. NOTE: not record cold--not even close--but the most extreme winter weather, including blizzards and ice storms, in many, many, many, many years...

The fun continues.

(NOTE to denialists: no one has said climate change "caused" this, so you'll have to try a different route for your daily ascent of Mount Ignorance.)


In some parts of Tajikistan, up to 80 centimeters of snow reportedly fell in just a few hours.

Link

Severe weather warning as 80mph winds head to Northern Ireland

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Quoting 997. Xandra:
Hell is the truth seen too late


Excellent link, Xandra. Excellent, and worrisome.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 878
Quoting 942. overwash12:
Has anybody seen this day in weather history? A feb. tropical storm in 1952 hit Florida on this day. Wow,today it would be because of AGW fer sure!


More like a subtropical cyclone.. The only difference is if it happened today it would be a hurricane...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20469
Quoting 990. ColoradoBob1:
And the "hoax" pulls off another trick -

Residents of Brazil's business hub Sao Paulo are sweltering in record temperatures after a January with the highest average in 70 years, while low rainfall could lead to water rationing.

Meteorologists recorded 35.8 Celsius (96.4 Fahrenheit) Saturday afternoon -- the highest February temperature since records began in 1943. And the Inmet meteorological institute said Sunday the hot spell would continue.

The seething metropolis of 20 million has been laboring under baking conditions since the turn of the year.

Average temperatures of 31.9 Celsius made January the hottest in 71 years.

The unrelenting heat -- along with rainfall at an 80-year low -- has left water levels at the main reservoir serving the city at their lowest levels in a decade, leading water and sewage services company Sabesp to warn it may have to impose rationing.


Link
Oh, those pranksters! At the same time, look what they are doing in Europe:

A quarter of Slovenians have been left without electricity, as parts of Europe battle some of the worst winter blizzards for decades. NOTE: not record cold--not even close--but the most extreme winter weather, including blizzards and ice storms, in many, many, many, many years...

The fun continues.

(NOTE to denialists: no one has said climate change "caused" this, so you'll have to try a different route for your daily ascent of Mount Ignorance.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Hell is the truth seen too late
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Penny batteries are still producing .8 to .9 volts with 400 milliamps each going on 36 hours now....Added some more vinegar..It must be evaporating some....Small hydrogen bubbles keep forming....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20469
Quoting 991. JohnLonergan:
Keystone cops from Seeing the environmental forest blog.


They didn't even consider the possibility that the tar sands won't be developed without the pipeline. And that, IMO, is a mistake.


I think the writing on the wall was obvious to anyone paying attention when Obama's re-election PAC transformed into Organizing for Action - a group that specifically refused to address any Keystone issues, even as it touted it's intent to address climate change in a meaningful way.

I have no doubt that this project will go forward. And I'm truly angry about this.

I campaigned for that guy twice - even moving to another state in the summer of 2007, because my own was safely 'blue'.

Fossil fuels own our government. I'm not optimistic about the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 989. Neapolitan:
As James Hansen says of Keystone II, it's game over. Although to be perfectly honest, the game was over long ago--around about the time the fossil fuel monster bought enough influence to sway the minds of the gullible, easily-misled voter.

I sometimes like to imagine there's a hyper-intelligent alien life form somewhere out there, a sentinel species whose sole task is to monitor the development of civilization on the millions of habitable planets in the galaxy. They watch and they wait for eons, never intervening, knowing well that every so often one of those nascent collections of life will have the intelligence and the will to survive its unstable adolescence to contribute value to the universe. But, like weak sprouts in a garden, many--perhaps even most--will fail to cross that threshold, and will wither away to nothingness. And I imagine the individual tasked with watching the sector of the galaxy that contains Earth cringed when he saw us developing fossil fuels, whispering, "Ah, damn. They were doing so well, but here we go again," and now just gazes upon us with knowing pity, slowly shaking its alien head from side to side, a sad and weary look on its face. And its alien fingers hover over the 'reboot' key, moving ever closer, ever closer...
If only it was going to be as easy (on us) as a reboot. Instead I believe (am pretty well convinced) that there will be a long and vicious decline, with much misery and death - inevitable with 7 billion people on a planet that's well over carrying capacity - and then a longer but slightly less nasty "dark ages". That is, provided we don't blow ourselves up in some idiotic war over the last bits of fuel and food.

Have a nice day, everyone.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2444

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.