Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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Quoting 293. nymore:
Where should I send the penny. I believe I am over paying but what the hell.

BTW 564,000 results in 0.27 seconds. What a burden you must carry. ROFFL

Over half a million results and you can't link one of them. Strange. Seems like it would be easier to provide a supporting link than dodge and burden shift.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 291. Birthmark:

Not a question of hard, it's a question of responsibilities. If you want me to carry your burden...well, I get paid for that sort of thing. If you aren't going to pay me, then you must support your own claims.
Where should I send the penny. I believe I am over paying but what the hell.

BTW 564,000 results in 0.27 seconds. What a burden you must carry. ROFFL
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292. yoboi
Quoting 291. Birthmark:

Not a question of hard, it's a question of responsibilities. If you want me to carry your burden...well, I get paid for that sort of thing. If you aren't going to pay me, then you must support your own claims.



I will give you some carbon credits if you come help me run crawfish traps.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting 288. nymore:
Can not figure out Google? Well I know it can be hard for some, what's the correct term, less intelligent people.

Well later all and good luck.

Not a question of hard, it's a question of responsibilities. If you want me to carry your burden...well, I get paid for that sort of thing. If you aren't going to pay me, then you must support your own claims.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Obama Urged to Act Alone on Climate If Congress Unwilling to Pass Legislation Action

Republican Bill to Block Obama on Climate Clears Panel Reaction

* Kenyan Energy Bonanza Fans Violence in Arid Northern Region

Texas Vies With Saudi Arabian Oil in California Supply: Freight

!!! DDT pesticide exposure linked to Alzheimer's disease, study shows

Living cold-water coral reef discovered off Greenland

'Chameleon of the sea' reveals its secrets

Tropics are main source of global mammal diversity


*** New NASA laser technology reveals how ice measures up

Effective control of invasive weeds can help attempts at reforestation in Panama

New studies needed to predict how marine organisms may adapt to the future's acidic oceans


!!! Fertilizer nutrient imbalance to limit food production in Africa

Mollusc shells inspire super-glass

*** Mexico's 'water monster' may have disappeared :(

Florida editorial roundup

Kentucky editorial roundup

*** UN warns climate change is drowning Senegal

* Chemists unveil 'water-jet' printer

Florida lawmakers want more giant snakes banned




Illinois Editorial Roundup

*** Study warns Douglas fir root rot could get worse


Keystone: Why the wait?

Obama: 'Climate change is a fact'

Uncovering the Secrets of Mole Motion (with video) Cool!

*** A river runs through it but where have the fish gone?

*** West Virginia chemical leak scope grows

* Playing with a concussion still a no-brainer for NFL players

!!! Best thing since sliced bread? Aquarium creates 'peanut butter and jellyfish' >__< *gags*

Not your basic reef life: Pacific coral thrives in acidified ocean


************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

TxDOT Taking Steps to Further Explore High-Speed Rail

*** Texans push feds to change biofuel quotas

Solar mergers likely to accelerate, industry exec says

!!! Mexico energy reform could bring $1.2 trillion to border towns

* Keystone opponents use rail constraints to urge pipeline's rejection

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of Astrometeor:

!!! Sea Change: Struggling with the next steps

*** Infectious Disease Could Become More Common in a Warmer World Especially for Plants and Animals
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
Quoting 282. Birthmark:

Try it yourself. It's your claim.
Can not figure out Google? Well I know it can be hard for some, what's the correct term, less intelligent people.

Well later all and good luck.
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Quoting 279. Skyepony:


We haven't had a really strong El nino since 1998..the ocean takes up heat & those el ninos vent that. As they do you see an uptick in temps those years.. to see temps the same during La Nina & neutral as 1998 is scarey if you understand the environment...

Next trivia question. Do you think Santa's Workshop will fall through the ice in February? In about two weeks the Ice should be less than 2 ft thick at the North Pole.
I think you read your link wrong it is in meters not feet. According to the link the thickness will be somewhere near 6 feet give or take.
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Quoting 276. Cochise111:
It's so pitiful how you warmists keep clinging to the CO2 theory; it's just sad. [...]


I don't know why I bother to respond, since it's plainly clear you're trolling for negative attention, but I'll look at your usual pejorative-laced falsehood as another chance to post the truth:

The fingerprint of humans on the rising CO2 is very clear, and it's 50-100 times that of natural volcanic origin. The evidence is:

(1) Measurements of the CO2 output from both volcanoes and fossil fuel burning show that fossil fuel burning far exceeds that of present-day volcanoes. (Link)

(2) The increase in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to a decrease in atmospheric O2, which shows that the CO2 is being created from combustion. (Link)

(3) The carbon isotope signature of the CO2 shows an increase in 12C, which comes from living organisms. There's NO relevant increase in 13C, which comes from melting rocks (volcanoes), and NO increase in 14C, which comes from recently dead living organisms. Therefore, the carbon in CO2 is coming from once living organisms that have been dead for a very long time… aka fossil fuels. (Link)

I've posted it before, and I'll post it again. Dr. Richard Alley says it best:

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284. yoboi
The new University of Connecticut-affiliated climate change institute “will be a world-class, cutting-edge center that harnesses the research and outreach capabilities of UConn” and converts it “into concrete local actions ... to better adapt to the changing climate,” Gov. Dannel P. Malloy said.


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
Quoting 268. nymore:
Try Google it is your friend if your to helpless to do that I can not help you.

Try it yourself. It's your claim.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 276. Cochise111:

I know. Imagine the folly of accepting an undisputed theory on the basis of nothing more than the available evidence...

That was a pretty funny post, though. I have to hand it to you.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 273. JohnLonergan:


Here's a link to Curry versus Tamino and Gavin at RealClimate a few years ago, The Montford Delusion, Curry does not come off well.

That's always worth a good re-read.
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279. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 274. Cochise111:
Trivia question for the evening. Which one of these various scenarios is responsible for our "pause" in global warming/climate disruption/climate change . . . . etc?

Link


We haven't had a really strong El nino since 1998..the ocean takes up heat & those el ninos vent that. As they do you see an uptick in temps those years.. to see temps the same during La Nina & neutral as 1998 is scarey if you understand the environment...

Next trivia question. Do you think Santa's Workshop will fall through the ice in February? In about two weeks the Ice should be less than 2 ft thick at the North Pole.
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Quoting 275. AGWSpecialist:
I'm really going to have to think about this one Cochise.

Read first, then think.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 274. Cochise111:
Trivia question for the evening. Which one of these various scenarios is responsible for our "pause" in global warming/climate disruption/climate change . . . . etc?

Link

All of them. Yet it continued to warm...and still does.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
It's so pitiful how you warmists keep clinging to the CO2 theory; it's just sad. The people at the forefront of your religion just keep inventing one story after another to explain the incorrect predictions so that it becomes ludicrous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trivia question for the evening. Which one of these various scenarios is responsible for our "pause" in global warming/climate disruption/climate change . . . . etc?

Link
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Quoting 252. Birthmark:

Hence my diagnosis of Curry as "a disingenuous hack." It's harsh, but I think it's justified by the facts at hand.


Here's a link to Curry versus Tamino and Gavin at RealClimate a few years ago, The Montford Delusion, Curry does not come off well.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3349
How much land will PV need to supply our electricity?

Link
PV’s Low-Impact Siting for Flat-Plate Systems

...In the United States, cities and residences cover about 140 million acres of land. We could supply every kilowatt-hour of our nation’s current electricity requirements simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, on parking lots, along highway walls, on the sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3349
Quoting 267. nymore:
I debunked this one a long time ago on this very blog when I showed how many sq. mi. of solar pnels it would take just to do the USA. I can't remember correctly but it was like 7 or 8 states and half of california.


Good for you. I'll stick with the easy to test numbers from the website over your numbers though. See I can easily test and verify that data. Thanks.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
Quoting 264. Naga5000:


Let's start upgrading infrastructure and the power grid to make this a reality.



Plus we in the US could stop using 2 1/2 times as much electric power as Europeans do power there homes.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3349
Quoting 265. nymore:
The only reason Germany jumped in so big was the subsides paid for the electricity (Higher prices to the producers than they could sell it for on the open market) Those subsides are going away and with it these power sources. Maybe a little research into the subject would help instead of the fluff pieces you evidently read.


As of last year Germany was pulling 8.6% of their power from wind and 6.9% from solar, and that isn't counting that just about every house (from when I was there last May), including rural areas had solar panels, yes they were subsidized. At least they are on the right path instead of ignoring a problem.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
Quoting 266. Birthmark:

Evidence?
Try Google it is your friend if your to helpless to do that I can not help you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 264. Naga5000:


Let's start upgrading infrastructure and the power grid to make this a reality.

I debunked this one a long time ago on this very blog when I showed how many sq. mi. of solar pnels it would take just to do the USA. I can't remember correctly but it was like 7 or 8 states and half of california.
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Quoting 265. nymore:
Those subsides are going away and with it these power sources.

Evidence?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 263. ScottLincoln:

Many parts of the U.S. have higher solar insolation than Germany, yet Germany uses far more solar power and it works.

Not a dream. It's reality. Just in countries with better vision and critical thinking skills than ours.
The only reason Germany jumped in so big was the subsides paid for the electricity (Higher prices to the producers than they could sell it for on the open market) Those subsides are going away and with it these power sources. Maybe a little research into the subject would help instead of the fluff pieces you evidently read.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 261. nymore:
Please bring your wind and solar to northern Mn and show us how you are going to heat your home with these. I don't know how large a solar array you are going to build as the sun angle is very low and it is light for maybe 8 or 9 hours total and for the wind when it gets very cold the wind doesn't blow. I think in a few hours you will realize your folly or we will just find another person frozen to death.

While I admire your dreams they are just that as of now dreams


Let's start upgrading infrastructure and the power grid to make this a reality.

Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
Quoting 261. nymore:
Please bring your wind and solar to northern Mn and show us how you are going to heat your home with these. I don't know how large a solar array you are going to build as the sun angle is very low and it is light for maybe 8 or 9 hours total and for the wind when it gets very cold the wind doesn't blow. I think in a few hours you will realize your folly or we will just find another person frozen to death.

While I admire your dreams they are just that as of now dreams

Many parts of the U.S. have higher solar insolation than Germany, yet Germany uses far more solar power and it works.

Not a dream. It's reality. Just in countries with better vision and critical thinking skills than ours.
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Quoting 256. Naga5000:


Got it.



Grapefruits give you more voltage than apples...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 203. DaveFive:
Solar is one way, wind power is another way to heat our homes. We will no longer need coal, gas, wood or oil, once all the communities in the world accepts the renewable energy sources that are available now, such as wind power and solar as well as other environmentally safe renewable resources.

It's The Wave Of The Present As Well As The Future.
Please bring your wind and solar to northern Mn and show us how you are going to heat your home with these. I don't know how large a solar array you are going to build as the sun angle is very low and it is light for maybe 8 or 9 hours total and for the wind when it gets very cold the wind doesn't blow. I think in a few hours you will realize your folly or we will just find another person frozen to death.

While I admire your dreams they are just that as of now dreams
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Quoting 258. Birthmark:

That really highlights the Dust Bowl, doesn't it?

Oh, and indicates that Curry is dead wrong, as Tamino pointed out.

Well, just to be fair, this one particular reanalysis dataset does. It's not one of the most robust reanalysis datasets, but it is the only one on CCI Reanlyzer that included the full 1930s.

But then there are the papers that Grant Foster talked about, the ones that specifically went through 2010 and specifically covered the entire arctic. They supercede my quick little analysis and they speak for themselves.
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Quoting 256. Naga5000:


Got it.


See? You could run the entire Republican Party of the US off just that one battery.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 254. ScottLincoln:


Hmmm.....

That really highlights the Dust Bowl, doesn't it?

Oh, and indicates that Curry is dead wrong, as Tamino pointed out.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 254. ScottLincoln:


Hmmm.....


Looks like a 97:3 to me...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 250. Birthmark:

If only there was some way to store energy...


Got it.

Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
Quoting 253. cyclonebuster:


There is sadly the battery would have to be the size of Texas...

But...but...couldn't we build a bunch of smaller batteries and sort of spread them out?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 252. Birthmark:
Hence my diagnosis of Curry as "a disingenuous hack." It's harsh, but I think it's justified by the facts at hand.

Hmmm..... it's almost like... the climate has changed or something.



http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalyzer/index_surf.p hp
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Quoting 250. Birthmark:

If only there was some way to store energy...


There is sadly the battery would have to be the size of Texas...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 249. ScottLincoln:

First she claims to know what the arctic temperatures are, and they are on par with the 1930s when we had less data. Then when confronted, she claims that even today we just don't have enough data to know, so it shouldn't be talked about anymore. Wow.

Almost like the time she got backed into a corner over the western pacific sea surface temperature paper when she completely misunderstood the different timeseries plots presented. She just changes the subject or goes back to her "uncertainty monster" whenever she is called out. If there is so much uncertainty, then why does she present conclusions on the topics? She cannot even be consistent in her own hypotheses...

Hence my diagnosis of Curry as "a disingenuous hack." It's harsh, but I think it's justified by the facts at hand.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 247. Naga5000:


Coal plants don't work well when there is no coal left either.


They will just switch over to gas when that happens or duel fuel them
...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 248. cyclonebuster:


Correct..Nor can they provide power during the night time or morning peak.... They are not 24/7/365 either...

If only there was some way to store energy...
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 238. JohnLonergan:


Curry responds:

I don’t see any further point to this exchange…


Right, quit before I really get embarassed.

First she claims to know what the arctic temperatures are, and they are on par with the 1930s when we had less data. Then when confronted, she claims that even today we just don't have enough data to know, so it shouldn't be talked about anymore. Wow.

Almost like the time she got backed into a corner over the western pacific sea surface temperature paper when she completely misunderstood the different timeseries plots presented. She just changes the subject or goes back to her "uncertainty monster" whenever she is called out. If there is so much uncertainty, then why does she present conclusions on the topics? She cannot even be consistent in her own hypotheses...
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Quoting 246. tramp96:

Yeah and solar panels don't work at night and not very well on overcast days


Correct..Nor can they provide power during the night time or morning peak.... They are not 24/7/365 either...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 246. tramp96:

Yeah and solar panels don't work at night and not very well on overcast days


Coal plants don't work well when there is no coal left either.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3465
Quoting 243. tramp96:

I'm sure you know that if it's to windy you have to shut them down.


Correct....
And if it is not windy enough they don't spin....They are not 24/7/365...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 240. JohnLonergan:
World%u2019s Largest Wind Turbine Starts Generating Power For First Time

On Tuesday the world%u2019s largest and most powerful wind turbine swung into gear at the Danish National Test Centre for Large Wind Turbines in sterild. The prototype V164-8.0 MW wind turbine is 720 feet tall, has 260-foot blades, and can generate 8 megawatts of power %u2014 enough to supply electricity for 7,500 average European households or about 3,000 American households.
A joint venture between Vestas and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the turbine is slated to go into production next year and was designed to take advantage of the growing offshore wind industry across Europe.
%u201CWe have now completed the production, testing, and installation of the V164-8.0 MW as planned, thanks to the team%u2019s intense effort during a time when Vestas has reduced its investments and lowered fixed costs,%u201D Anders Vedel, Chief Technology Officer for Vestas, said. %u201CWe now look forward to evaluating the turbine%u2019s performance on site.%u201D
According to the European Offshore Wind Industry, 418 offshore turbines came online last year, providing 1,567 MW of capacity. That brought the total offshore wind capacity in Europe to 6,562 MW with just over 2,000 turbines, enough to provide 0.7 percent of the EU%u2019s electricity. The European Offshore Wind Industry estimates that by 2020 Europe%u2019s offshore grid should have a capacity of 40 gigawatts and by 2030 it should have 150 gigawatts, enough to provide 14 percent of the EU%u2019s electricity demand.
Britain has the most installed offshore wind capacity with 3.68 gigawtts while Denmark is a distant second with 1.27 gigawatts.
Vestas is Europe%u2019s second leading wind turbine manufacturer, after Siemens, a German company. As of last year Vestas had installed 27 percent of Europe%u2019s offshore wind turbines, or 547, compared to Siemens%u2019 1,249, or 60 percent.

I emphasized this quote because I feelit itis particularly telling:

enough to supply electricity for 7,500 average European households or about 3,000 American households.




Only if the wind is blowing....They are not 24/7/365...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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