Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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392. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 390. yoboi:
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Seventeen rural communities in drought-stricken California are in danger of running out of water within four months, according to a list compiled by state officials.

Link


this next winter storm (Maximus) will give northern California some snow .. 1 to 2 feet is expected in the Sierra's .. though not nearly enough to help much .. it might mean the pattern is changing and they might start to get more..
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Quoting 326. theshepherd:


Pine beetles?


No Pine Bettles in Alabama now they moved to Alaska they know where the heat is...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
390. yoboi
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Seventeen rural communities in drought-stricken California are in danger of running out of water within four months, according to a list compiled by state officials.

Link
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We have our hypothesis,it's in the pudding!:-)
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Quoting 387. MisterPerfect:
Nature of Scientific Knowledge

a. Science distinguishes itself from other ways of knowing and from other bodies of knowledge
through the use of empirical standards, logical arguments and skepticism, as scientists strive for the
best possible explanations about the natural world.

b. Scientific explanations must meet certain criteria. First and foremost, they must be consistent with
experimental and observational evidence about nature, and must make accurate predictions, when
appropriate, about systems being studied. They should also be logical, respect the rules of evidence,
be open to criticism, report methods and procedures and make knowledge public. Explanations on
how the natural world changes based on myths, personal beliefs, religious values, mystical inspiration,
superstition or authority may be personally useful and socially relevant, but they are not scientific.

c. Because all scientific ideas depend on experimental and observational confirmation, all scientific
knowledge is, in principle, subject to change as new evidence becomes available
. The core ideas of
science, such as the conservation of energy or the laws of motion, have been subjected to a wide
variety of confirmations and are, therefore, unlikely to change in the areas in which they have been
tested. In areas where data or understanding are incomplete, such as the details of human evolution
or questions surrounding global warming, new data may well lead to changes in current ideas or
resolve current conflicts. In situations where information is still fragmentary, it is normal for scientific
ideas to be incomplete, but this is also where the opportunity for making advances may be greatest.


From the textbook: an inconvenient truth in the classroom, page 83-Appendix 1.
http://www.nwf.org/pdf/Eco-schools/AITInTheClassr oom7_08.pdf
All--well, mostly--true. So if denialists want their hypotheses to be respected as scientifically valid, why don't they publish?*

* - By publish, I mean write up the hypothesis, have it reviewed by an anonymous jury of peers, then printed in a credible scientific journal. NOTE: posting winter weather reports and/or rants about Al Gore do not qualify.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Nature of Scientific Knowledge

a. Science distinguishes itself from other ways of knowing and from other bodies of knowledge
through the use of empirical standards, logical arguments and skepticism, as scientists strive for the
best possible explanations about the natural world.

b. Scientific explanations must meet certain criteria. First and foremost, they must be consistent with
experimental and observational evidence about nature, and must make accurate predictions, when
appropriate, about systems being studied. They should also be logical, respect the rules of evidence,
be open to criticism, report methods and procedures and make knowledge public. Explanations on
how the natural world changes based on myths, personal beliefs, religious values, mystical inspiration,
superstition or authority may be personally useful and socially relevant, but they are not scientific.

c. Because all scientific ideas depend on experimental and observational confirmation, all scientific
knowledge is, in principle, subject to change as new evidence becomes available
. The core ideas of
science, such as the conservation of energy or the laws of motion, have been subjected to a wide
variety of confirmations and are, therefore, unlikely to change in the areas in which they have been
tested. In areas where data or understanding are incomplete, such as the details of human evolution
or questions surrounding global warming, new data may well lead to changes in current ideas or
resolve current conflicts. In situations where information is still fragmentary, it is normal for scientific
ideas to be incomplete, but this is also where the opportunity for making advances may be greatest.


From the textbook: an inconvenient truth in the classroom, page 83-Appendix 1.
http://www.nwf.org/pdf/Eco-schools/AITInTheClassr oom7_08.pdf
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386. yoboi
Quoting 376. yonzabam:


Yeh, but . . . I read somewhere on the Internet that the Arctic Ocean ice is decreasing because the lizard people are melting it with phasar energy from an invisible mothership over the North Pole.

You're all sheep.


SMH....Another wild prediction....I will file this one with the 16 yr long El Nino, Miami 2 feet under bla blah etc......
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Check this site out,Birthmark.LinkYou may have already,but it looks well done.
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Quoting 382. Birthmark:

Funnily enough, it did melt some yesterday according to JAXA.
Wow,It should be cold up there right now! We are in for a hot summer.
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Evening guys, here are some news about methane from Germany ;-)

Flatulent cows start fire with massage machine
The Local, published: 28 Jan 2014 10:50 GMT+01:00
Cows at a dairy farm in central Germany created enough methane gas to set their stalls ablaze and damage a barn roof, police said on Monday. ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6214
Quoting 379. overwash12:
Is it melting right now?

Funnily enough, it did melt some yesterday according to JAXA.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 376. yonzabam:


Yeh, but . . . I read somewhere on the Internet that the Arctic Ocean ice is decreasing because the lizard people are melting it with phasar energy from an invisible mothership over the North Pole.

You're all sheep.


Maybe we should call the Doctor...
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Year-Round Arctic Ice Cooled Earth Earlier Than Thought

For decades, scientists have thought that Antarctica froze before the Arctic Ocean saw its first perennial sea ice, which is ice that lasts through the summer. Antarctica started icing over about 34 million years ago, according to geologic evidence left behind by glaciers. Until now, evidence for perennial sea ice in the Arctic was just 18 million years old.

But a sediment core drilled from the Arctic seafloor — the first-ever Arctic core for the international ocean drilling program — now rewrites that race to refrigerate the poles. The Arctic Ocean was frozen through summer by 36.7 million years ago, according to a study published yesterday (Jan. 26) in the journal Nature Geoscience. And with year-round ice reflecting the sun and chilling the ocean, the Arctic may have cooled the planet, the authors suggest.


Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2714
Quoting 375. Birthmark:

No, they don't. For instance, Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than projected.
Is it melting right now?
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Sensitivity of carbon cycle to tropical temperature variations has doubled

Summary:


The tropical carbon cycle has become twice as sensitive to temperature variations over the past 50 years, new research has revealed. The research shows that a one degree rise in tropical temperature leads to around two billion extra tons of carbon being released per year into the atmosphere from tropical ecosystems, compared with the same tropical warming in the 1960s and 1970s.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2714
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Quoting 375. Birthmark:

No, they don't. For instance, Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than projected.


Yeh, but . . . I read somewhere on the Internet that the Arctic Ocean ice is decreasing because the lizard people are melting it with phasar energy from an invisible mothership over the North Pole.

You're all sheep.
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Quoting 374. overwash12:
They project a lot of things. They don't always pan out,do they?

No, they don't. For instance, Arctic sea ice is melting much faster than projected.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 370. FLwolverine:
So, seriously, the evidence you would accept is when there are no more "brutally cold" winters. Hmm, that may take awhile, but I think there was a study recently that projected that by the 2040's, the average low temperature in much of North America would be higher than the current average high temperature. I'll try to find the paper. I probably won't be around to see if the projections work out, but you might.

I could add that by then it will be too late to do anything about it, except that I think it's already too late.....
They project a lot of things. They don't always pan out,do they?
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Quoting 364. FLwolverine:
Oh, I know, I know! It's the clouds/UHI/uncalibrated thermometers/alien space wombats. And besides, it's just natural cycles!

How'd I do???????????


Congratulation's !!!

You have passed the wattsupwitdat tutorial, please print out yer Certificate and engage in obfuscation over at wunderground.com




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December 2013 featured an extremely active, and very intense
low pressure track across the North Atlantic ocean basin.

Below is a full loop containing all the Atlantic surface analysis charts, beginning
December 01 00Z and ending December 31 18Z.

A few interesting statistics:
◾There were 14 unique instances of hurricane force wind events. These include tip jets in the vicinity of the Greenland coast.
As a reminder, hurricane force winds mean ocean surface winds exceed 63 knots.

◾There were 10 unique low pressure systems that deepened quickly enough to be classified as having undergone “bombogenesis”.
At the OPC, these are called “rapidly intensifying” low pressure systems. As a reminder, this means the central pressure of a system decreases by at least 24 mb in 24 hours.

◾The lowest pressure was analyzed as 929 mb, occurring December 24 06Z, and again December 24 18Z.

◾Aside from the lowest analyzed pressure of 929mb, there were 5 other lows to have a central pressure analyzed below 950 mb:

◦942 mb Dec 12 18Z | 946 mb Dec 15 12Z | 948 mb Dec 18 00Z | 940 mb Dec 19 12Z | 943 mb Dec 27 00Z

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2714
Quoting 367. overwash12:
What's that,Siberia over the top? Look at all that purple,but that only makes up 1/2 percent of the globe also.

Hint: Temperature anomalies are at the bottom. World +0.29C ;)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 365. overwash12:
Ok then. I stand corrected!
So, seriously, the evidence you would accept is when there are no more "brutally cold" winters. Hmm, that may take awhile, but I think there was a study recently that projected that by the 2040's, the average low temperature in much of North America would be higher than the current average high temperature. I'll try to find the paper. I probably won't be around to see if the projections work out, but you might.

I could add that by then it will be too late to do anything about it, except that I think it's already too late.....
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403
From the Colonels read list

Florida editorial roundup

Jan. 26

Gainesville (Fla.) Sun on springing into action:

Florida's springs and other water resources are finally getting deserved attention.

But it's going to take public pressure on elected officials to ensure that talk translates to measures that truly protect water quality and quantity.

Last week was filled with promising signs. Rallies were held around the state promoting the Floridians' Clean Water Declaration.

The declaration, which can be signed at wewantcleanwater.com, says in part that the state has the responsibility to provide clean water for future generations.


I am a part of this movement. I am on the planning committee and helped put together the historic first time gathering of 118 different water advocacy groups in Orlando. We had 18 rallies last Wednesday across the state, and here in Stuart, we had 120 folks show and sign our Clean Water Declaration.( we also got over 1000 signatures Saturday at the Port Salerno Seafood Fest) We are asking elected officials to sign. We are making fishable drinkable, swimmable water and its protection THE major issue for the upcoming elections in Florida at ALL levels.

In 1996, we Floridians voted 62% in favor of Amendment 5.. the Polluters must pay amendment. It, like the Federal Clean Water act, requires all polluted water to STAY where it is until it is clean or they must pay the entirety of the cost to clean it. ( sugar is exempt.. they pay 25 dollars an acre and are absolved from all other pollution clean up responsibilities. Their share is 11 million $ a year.. we pay several HUNDRED MILLION $ a year cleaning their mess) Big sugar tested this law in court and the Florida Supreme Court upheld it, but said no provision for "enforcement" was written into the law. It has sat there, unenforced because we can't get our Governor, or Legislature to enforce it. The all important question this election cycle will be; "If, we elect you to your desired seat, will you ENFORCE this law... yes or no?" We are not voting party, we are voting clean water protections.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER
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Just because you see a graph with warmer than normal temps for the Northern interior of Canada,doesn't mean it's tropical up there. It means departures from average,doesn't it? It still cold up there,look at the temps for Yukon Terr.
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Quoting 354. Birthmark:

It happens like this:

What's that,Siberia over the top? Look at all that purple,but that only makes up 1/2 percent of the globe also.
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Quoting 355. yoboi:


Have you ever visited a plant nursery????
What does that have to do with anything?
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403
Quoting 361. schwankmoe:


this is complete buffoonery. it's like arguing that it's impossible for the DOW to go up because this one stock is having a bad day.

the midwest makes up half a percent of the earth's surface area. does half a percent of the earth's surface being cold automatically mean the whole globe is cold? of course not, even a child can figure that out. does the fact that global average temperatures are trending up mean that cold weather should never show its face again? of course not, even a child can figure that out.

here in CA we're having a drought. does that mean it can't possibly be raining somewhere else on earth? of course not. even a child can figure that out.
Ok then. I stand corrected!
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Quoting 348. Birthmark:

Perhaps that is the reason.

I wonder why it isn't simply turned back on the denialists, though? "Hey, we've got a negative PDO, weakest solar cycle in a century, far more la ninas and neutral years than el ninos over the last fifteen years...so why is it so warm?"

"If you can't explain the heat, then your claims are just dead meat."
Oh, I know, I know! It's the clouds/UHI/uncalibrated thermometers/alien space wombats. And besides, it's just natural cycles!

How'd I do???????????
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403
Surely the Ice age has begun in NOLA.


From Sneaux/Sleet-mageddon 2014



(I do now henceforth denounce AGW)

..and "I do denounce da Grinch"


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Quoting 356. Birthmark:

No. It's impossible. There are none in my backyard, therefore, they do not exist.


Our first Plant Nusery denier!!!
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3446
Quoting 349. overwash12:
Because we still have brutally cold weather. Look at the midwest for example. How do we explain that? Low Temps that rival the records or get close.


this is complete buffoonery. it's like arguing that it's impossible for the DOW to go up because this one stock is having a bad day.

the midwest makes up half a percent of the earth's surface area. does half a percent of the earth's surface being cold automatically mean the whole globe is cold? of course not, even a child can figure that out. does the fact that global average temperatures are trending up mean that cold weather should never show its face again? of course not, even a child can figure that out.

here in CA we're having a drought. does that mean it can't possibly be raining somewhere else on earth? of course not. even a child can figure that out.
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Quoting 357. JohnLonergan:


Cochise is about 7 months too late; it linked to a report from July 2013 well before the Cowton and Way study was published

Today's MetOffice discussion of The 2013 global mean temperature states:

..."So, why might the global mean temperature be different from forecasts? Well, we know that, due to the lack of long-term observing sites in polar latitudes, HadCRUT4 underestimates the contribution from Arctic warming which has accelerated in recent years."...


Cowton and Way have updated their dataset to include all of 2013, they show that warming continues.

Figure 1: Comparison of HadCRUT4 to the infilled reconstruction, using a 12 month moving average.


HadCRUT coverage misses 16% of the planet. Much of that missing data includes the Arctic - which is now warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

Is it any wonder that HadCRUT shows a rate of warming that's biased towards lower temperature increases? It would be much like me taking the temperature of every patient in a hospital - except for those that had a fever - and then reporting that 'hospital patient average temperatures are 98.6F'.

I'm highly impressed by Cowton and Way's work, BTW.
Member Since: December 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting 350. ColoradoBob1:
Fire sweeps across peninsula in northern Norway

Link


Most extensive fire since World War II

The fire in Flatanger on the West Coast of Norway is the most extensive fire catastrophe in Norway since World War II. More than 139 houses and buildings have been destroyed.

The fire in Flatanger in the county of Nord Trøndelag started late Monday night, and only ten days after 40 houses burned to the ground in Lærdalsøyri, also on the West coast.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2714
Robert Way discusses the updated Cowton & Way data and how it relates to Curry's Tripe here.

A Historical Perspective on Arctic Warming: Part One

During her most recent Senate testimony, Dr. Judith Curry (Georgia Tech) repeated one of the most common misconceptions found in the blogosphere, that the Arctic was warmer than present during the 1940s. This period - known as the Early Century Warm Period (ECWP) - coincides with observations of reduced Arctic sea ice cover and allowed for more widespread ship navigation than during the late 1800s and early 1900s (Johanessen et al. 2004).

There are two elements to the contrarian views on the ECWP in the Arctic. First, they argue that during the ECWP the Arctic was warmer than present. Secondly they have used the ECWP as a means of casting doubt on the main drivers of global warming. These contrarians argue that internal climate variability caused the ECWP and that this internal variability may have contributed to recent Arctic warming, thereby suggesting that climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases may be lower than current estimates. Some of these discussion points have also somehow found themselves in the IPCC AR5's Chapter 10 where the following claim is made.

"Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s."


Based on previous examination of the surface temperature record and also reading the literature on the topic, I found myself skeptical of this IPCC claim and by extension the contrarian views. Tamino expressed a similar sentiment in a recent article. In this post I will be examining the first element of the discussion and will evaluate whether "Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s" is an accurate statement.

Read More at SkeptikalScience...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3446
Quoting 332. Naga5000:



For the thousandth time, SURFACE temps. If you ignore the ocean you are cherry picking. All the data sets show increase in SURFACE temperature, just not significant at the 95% level, but you wouldn't get that anyways since you are using 15 years.


Cochise is about 7 months too late; it linked to a report from July 2013 well before the Cowton and Way study was published

Today's MetOffice discussion of The 2013 global mean temperature states:

..."So, why might the global mean temperature be different from forecasts? Well, we know that, due to the lack of long-term observing sites in polar latitudes, HadCRUT4 underestimates the contribution from Arctic warming which has accelerated in recent years."...


Cowton and Way have updated their dataset to include all of 2013, they show that warming continues.

Figure 1: Comparison of HadCRUT4 to the infilled reconstruction, using a 12 month moving average.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3446
Quoting 355. yoboi:


Have you ever visited a plant nursery????

No. It's impossible. There are none in my backyard, therefore, they do not exist.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
355. yoboi
Quoting 344. FLwolverine:
I'm just curious. Is there anything - any event or any research - that would persuade you that AGW is real, is caused by all the CO2 mankind is putting into the air, and will have very serious consequences ? If so, what is that event or research r discovery?

Thanks.


Have you ever visited a plant nursery????
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Quoting 349. overwash12:
Because we still have brutally cold weather. Look at the midwest for example. How do we explain that? Low Temps that rival the records or get close.

It happens like this:

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 352. yoboi:



Open Thy eyes and you shall see....
And take off that winter jacket,not needed anymore!
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352. yoboi
Quoting 347. FLwolverine:
Where? Where? Yoboi clearing up anything (relating to climate, that is) would be a sight worth seeing!



Open Thy eyes and you shall see....
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Quoting 347. FLwolverine:
Where? Where? Yoboi clearing up anything (relating to climate, that is) would be a sight worth seeing!
It was a bit of humor on my part. That's all!
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Fire sweeps across peninsula in northern Norway

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2714
Quoting 344. FLwolverine:
I'm just curious. Is there anything - any event or any research - that would persuade you that AGW is real, is caused by all the CO2 mankind is putting into the air, and will have very serious consequences ? If so, what is that event or research r discovery?

Thanks.
Because we still have brutally cold weather. Look at the midwest for example. How do we explain that? Low Temps that rival the records or get close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 345. FLwolverine:
Agreed, but I always get the impression that the Met Office is particularly beleaguered in British politics.

Perhaps that is the reason.

I wonder why it isn't simply turned back on the denialists, though? "Hey, we've got a negative PDO, weakest solar cycle in a century, far more la ninas and neutral years than el ninos over the last fifteen years...so why is it so warm?"

"If you can't explain the heat, then your claims are just dead meat."
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 342. overwash12:
I thought Yoboi cleared that up about the no warming debate? LOL
Where? Where? Yoboi clearing up anything (relating to climate, that is) would be a sight worth seeing!
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403
Quoting 342. overwash12:
I thought Yoboi cleared that up about the no warming debate? LOL

Did you? What made you think that? lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 343. Birthmark:

I think that that job should be beneath the dignity of the Met Office.

And I will note that "little additional warming" is not the same thing as a "pause".
Agreed, but I always get the impression that the Met Office is particularly beleaguered in British politics.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403
Quoting 339. overwash12:
Climate will change whether man is here or not. Always has and always will. Subtle changes in Sun's output and we go up or down,dramatically. We may contribute some,but then again,we probably always will.
I'm just curious. Is there anything - any event or any research - that would persuade you that AGW is real, is caused by all the CO2 mankind is putting into the air, and will have very serious consequences ? If so, what is that event or research r discovery?

Thanks.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2403

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Mostly Cloudy