Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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543. yoboi
Quoting 542. Birthmark:

Let me ask you: If the only effect of climate change was the temperature going up 2C globally, why would anyone care?

It is not the temperature that is important. It is the effects on humans and our civilization that makes CC important. Otherwise, CC would be of little interest to anyone outside of climatologists.

Since most people live in the NH, and since the Arctic region is changing faster than any other region, and since the Arctic is profoundly important to NH weather, that makes the Arctic of much more importance and interest than the SH.




Well if you want to understand Global climate you have to look at everything.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 541. yoboi:



I sure would like to see something peer reviewed that supports that population is the most important factor with science......

Let me ask you: If the only effect of climate change was the temperature going up 2C globally, why would anyone care?

It is not the temperature that is important. It is the effects on humans and our civilization that makes CC important. Otherwise, CC would be of little interest to anyone outside of climatologists.

Since most people live in the NH, and since the Arctic region is changing faster than any other region, and since the Arctic is profoundly important to NH weather, that makes the Arctic of much more importance and interest than the SH.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
541. yoboi
Quoting 536. Birthmark:

The Arctic isn't a cherry picked region. It is an area that has a profound effect on the weather of the Northern Hemisphere -where most people live. The Arctic sea ice, therefore, is of utmost interest.

The Antarctic sea ice surrounds ~14 million sqkm of land ice. Even if all Antarctic sea ice melts out, there is still all that land ice. It should also be remembered that that land ice is losing mass, too, but that's not terribly important...yet. (Antarctic sea ice was predicted to increase around 20 years ago, btw, so the increase isn't a big surprise.)

When the Arctic sea ice melts out in summer, which will happen somewhere between fairly soon and very soon, that pretty much only leaves Greenland's less than 2 million sqkm of land ice in the NH. (Arctic sea ice was predicted to decrease 30 or more years ago, so it isn't a surprise, either.)

So there are very valid reasons for treating the two areas differently.





I sure would like to see something peer reviewed that supports that population is the most important factor with science......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 539. Birthmark:

You might enjoy reading this from NOAA. It is a general phenomenon and not about any specific weather event.
Ok,I will. But not now,I have to turn in early,on the count I had to leave for work earlier than usual,because of the extreme snow and ice covered roads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 538. overwash12:
Well of course it would! Cheers!

You might enjoy reading this from NOAA. It is a general phenomenon and not about any specific weather event.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 537. Birthmark:

Congratulations!

I think that that would fall under "extreme weather".
Well of course it would! Cheers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 532. overwash12:
We set a record maximum temp yesterday 24F beat the old record of 26F set back in 1936!

Congratulations!

I think that that would fall under "extreme weather".
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 535. yoboi:


It's only important for 1 region and why??? With Climate Change you need to look at things on a global scale.....Not cherry picked regions.....

The Arctic isn't a cherry picked region. It is an area that has a profound effect on the weather of the Northern Hemisphere -where most people live. The Arctic sea ice, therefore, is of utmost interest.

The Antarctic sea ice surrounds ~14 million sqkm of land ice. Even if all Antarctic sea ice melts out, there is still all that land ice. It should also be remembered that that land ice is losing mass, too, but that's not terribly important...yet. (Antarctic sea ice was predicted to increase around 20 years ago, btw, so the increase isn't a big surprise.)

When the Arctic sea ice melts out in summer, which will happen somewhere between fairly soon and very soon, that pretty much only leaves Greenland's less than 2 million sqkm of land ice in the NH. (Arctic sea ice was predicted to decrease 30 or more years ago, so it isn't a surprise, either.)

So there are very valid reasons for treating the two areas differently.


Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
535. yoboi
Quoting 533. Birthmark:

Because not all ice is equally important. We've been through this many times.



It's only important for 1 region and why??? With Climate Change you need to look at things on a global scale.....Not cherry picked regions.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 530. yoboi:



"Global" Ice is not at record low....

Nor is it at a record high.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 527. yoboi:



Why the need to cherry pick a region with Ice???? You would not do that with temps....."Global" temps...."Global" ice......Why cherry pick????

Because not all ice is equally important. We've been through this many times.

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
We set a record maximum temp yesterday 24F beat the old record of 26F set back in 1936! Also -2F were I work,out in the suburbs,for a morning low! When it gets below zero around here it is an all-time record low!
But,we only are .001% of the Globe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 529. iceagecoming:
Winter storm Leon, analysis of what went wrong in ATL.




Where is ALgoron now, MIA again?
Appreciate the weather update. Of course, that image is from Spencer, MA, where the record January low is -15F, and this most recent cold snap came nowhere close to that. But thanks for your awesome contribution anyway...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
530. yoboi
Quoting 528. Xulonn:
LOL - You just admitted you cherry picked - Scott didn't cherry pick - he used "global" sea ice info, e.g. Arctic and Antarctic, and you used only Antarctic sea ice data.

In other words, you cherry picked by using the Antarctic trend while ignoring the Arctic trend. (And you are aware that Arctic sea ice is at a record low level again, are you not?



"Global" Ice is not at record low....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Winter storm Leon, analysis of what went wrong in ATL.




Where is ALgoron now, MIA again?
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Quoting 527. yoboi:



Why the need to cherry pick a region with Ice???? You would not do that with temps....."Global" temps...."Global" ice......Why cherry pick????
LOL - You just admitted you cherry picked - Scott didn't cherry pick - he used "global" sea ice info, e.g. Arctic and Antarctic, and you used only Antarctic sea ice data.

In other words, you cherry picked by using the Antarctic trend while ignoring the Arctic trend. (And you are aware that Arctic sea ice is at a record low level again, are you not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
527. yoboi
Quoting 523. ScottLincoln:

One of these trends is not like the other...




Why the need to cherry pick a region with Ice???? You would not do that with temps....."Global" temps...."Global" ice......Why cherry pick????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Saw this in the comments at Eli's:

Looking at PIOMAS data since 1980, there's an interesting difference between above average melt years and the subsequent refreeze and below average melt years + refreeze.

In the below average years there is little correlation (0.181) to the amount of refreeze and there is a slight gain in volume (0.052 * 1000 km^3/yr). For above average melt years there is a significant correlation (0.477) to the following refreeze and a net loss of volume (-0.767 * 1000 km^3/yr).

The average melt season over this period is 16.489 1000 km^3. The 2013 melt season was 16.637 1000 km^3) - or just slightly above average.

Up until this point the only above average melt season that resulted in a net volume gain after the refreeze was 2007/8. So, the stats tell us we should expect a net volume loss, but we're looking at pretty small sample sizes (18 years below average, 15 years above).




MYI in week fifty-two 2013

MYI in week fifty-two 2012

MYI in week fifty-two 2011

MYI in week fifty-two 2010

MYI in week fifty-two 2009

MYI in week fifty-two 2008

MYI in week fifty-two 2007

MYI in week fifty-two 2006
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3600
Quoting 522. yoboi:
How about some good news on this chilly day....



NSIDC: 2013 sea ice was at record highs for the satellite era, record high winter extent & summer minimum


Link

One of these trends is not like the other...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
522. yoboi
How about some good news on this chilly day....



NSIDC: 2013 sea ice was at record highs for the satellite era, record high winter extent & summer minimum


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
Quoting 520. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
faster and faster barb for us all


Seems right, Keep, unfortunately. And there's a dark side of everything bright to boot ... I remember when maybe ten years ago the idea to heat your house with pellets was advertised as a very good and environment friendly idea. And it was (apart from the related use of palm oil, as much as I know), unless a lot of people - too many - followed this advice and German forests and wood industry ran out of superflous wood. And now they obviously burn pellets in an industrial amount:

How the EU's green energy drive is hitting US forests
Deutsche Welle English
To reduce carbon emissions many coal-burning power plants in Europe are starting to import wood pellets from the US. Critics say the new trend is putting wildlife at risk and wasting fuel. ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 519. barbamz:
Flooding experts say Britain will have to adapt to climate change – and fast
UK won't be able to defend everywhere against flooding and higher sea levels. So what does that mean for Somerset Levels?
Damian Carrington, theguardian.com, Thursday 30 January 2014 18.08 GMT
"You are looking at retreat," says Prof Colin Thorne, a flooding expert at the University of Nottingham. "It is the only sensible policy – it makes no sense to defend the indefensible." This assessment of how the UK will have to adapt to its increasing flood risk is stark, but is shared by virtually all those who work on the issue.
Centuries of draining wetlands, reclaiming salt marshes and walling in rivers is being put into reverse by climate change, which is bringing fiercer storms, more intense downpours and is pushing up sea levels. Sea walls are now being deliberately allowed to be breached, with new defences built further back, and fields turned into lakes to slow the rush of the water, as flood management turns back towards natural methods.
Thorne says the strategy of once more "making space for water" has been around for a decade, but the urgency of implementing it has increased sharply. "We thought then we were talking about the 2030s, but it is all happening a heck of a lot quicker."
Large parts of southern England had their wettest January ever recorded, the Met Office announced on Thursday, and the Somerset Levels, much of which is below sea level, have been inundated for weeks. ...
faster and faster barb for us all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flooding experts say Britain will have to adapt to climate change – and fast
UK won't be able to defend everywhere against flooding and higher sea levels. So what does that mean for Somerset Levels?
Damian Carrington, theguardian.com, Thursday 30 January 2014 18.08 GMT
"You are looking at retreat," says Prof Colin Thorne, a flooding expert at the University of Nottingham. "It is the only sensible policy – it makes no sense to defend the indefensible." This assessment of how the UK will have to adapt to its increasing flood risk is stark, but is shared by virtually all those who work on the issue.
Centuries of draining wetlands, reclaiming salt marshes and walling in rivers is being put into reverse by climate change, which is bringing fiercer storms, more intense downpours and is pushing up sea levels. Sea walls are now being deliberately allowed to be breached, with new defences built further back, and fields turned into lakes to slow the rush of the water, as flood management turns back towards natural methods.
Thorne says the strategy of once more "making space for water" has been around for a decade, but the urgency of implementing it has increased sharply. "We thought then we were talking about the 2030s, but it is all happening a heck of a lot quicker."
Large parts of southern England had their wettest January ever recorded, the Met Office announced on Thursday, and the Somerset Levels, much of which is below sea level, have been inundated for weeks. ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 517. Birthmark:

Make them feel alienated?


See if we are making them more acidic with fossil fuel GHG's then isn't it in our best interest to make them more caustic?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 516. cyclonebuster:


So how do we make the oceans more caustic???

Make them feel alienated?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 515. ColoradoBob1:
Ocean acidification leaving fish in the dark

Increasing carbon dioxide in the world's oceans could hamper fishes' eyesight, slowing their reaction times and leaving them vulnerable to predators or unable to hunt, new research has shown.

Read more at: Link


So how do we make the oceans more caustic???
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Ocean acidification leaving fish in the dark

Increasing carbon dioxide in the world's oceans could hamper fishes' eyesight, slowing their reaction times and leaving them vulnerable to predators or unable to hunt, new research has shown.

Read more at: Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3018
Quoting 501. nymore:
What cherry picking. Why not show daily records or better yet all-time records broken this month so far.

I guess cherry picking what ever you want ppl to believe happens on both sides, wouldn't you say.


double sour cherries are the best hmmmm there so good




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please, for the sake of sanity, refrain from Quoting the Obfuscater's.

If you must play ping-pong with them, spare Us the words.

Thanx.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting 498. Cochise111:
Now researchers are blaming climate change for increased mortality rates of penguin chicks. Guess what they are using to justify their findings? You guessed it -- statistical models. The problem is that some of the variables in the models have absolutely no meaning:

Link


The new results span 27 years of data collected in Argentina under the direction of Dee Boersma, UW biology professor, with the support of the Wildlife Conservation Society, the UW, the Office of Turismo in Argentina's Chubut Province, the Global Penguin Society and the La Regina family. Boersma is lead author of a paper on the findings in the Jan. 29 issue of PLOS ONE

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3018
Quoting 488. yoboi:




Maybe the cold weather is getting to him??? It has been proven people thrive better in a warm climate....

Maybe, but crime rates are much lower in cold weather.

You just can't win.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
509. yoboi
Quoting 501. nymore:
What cherry picking. Why not show daily records or better yet all-time records broken this month so far.

I guess cherry picking what ever you want ppl to believe happens on both sides, wouldn't you say.





...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2527
506 - Yeah, Napoleonic law is a real challenge of those of us trained in the English common law tradition. Years ago I worked on some large land deals in LA. Not only did we hire local LA counsel, I also bought a couple of volumes of the Louisiana Code (real estate sections) so I could figure out what the heck the local counsel was talking about! But it was fun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
505 - LOL - I've never heard of using stupidity as a defense. The questions here will be (1) whether the accusation that Mann used his data fraudulently is true or false, and (2) if false, did Steyn and the others make the accusation with reckless regard as to whether it was true or false. If Seyn didn't understand Mann's results, then (as Bickmore said) it really looks like he acted recklessly.

The only way I can see a claim of "I didn't understand Mann's results" working for Steyn is if it is coupled with an apology, eg, if he says "sorry, I didn't understand your work, and I apologise for accusing you of acting fraudulently when I really didn't know what I was talking about." Even such an admission of wrongdoing/liablity wouldn't let him off the hook for damages. Somehow I can't see Steyn saying that - he couldn't claim to be a victim any longer!

Added: I read Bickmore's entire article. Very good analysis!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thus the large numbers of Law Students here at Tulane and Loyola.

Studying Napoleonic Law here is a good thing for many young educated Americans,or others.

Me, er, not so much, I'm more a realist and stirrer of Ka-ka'.


One must follow their own path to freedom and truth.

Here, we see the obvious and retort with Science,logic and Humor.

One obs to as to the obfuscater's.

They really FAIL at Humor big time.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Barry Bickmore gives an outstanding overview and analysis of the Mann v. National Review et al. case:

What Precedent? Why National Review et al. Are Running Scared

For anyone not familiar with Barry Bickmore, he's a conservative blogger from Utah. Quote:

"I’m a Republican myself, and it galls me that my own party has locally fallen for a bunch of conspiracy theories and scientifically incompetent trash. In my opinion, something has to be done to save the party from disaster in the long run."

-----

For anyone already familiar with his work, no explanation is necessary.

I'll leave a few segments from his new piece here. Read the whole thing when you have time.

----

"As I see it, the defendants only have four options if (when) their attempts to get the case thrown out fail.

1) They can hope against hope to find any evidence of foul play on Mann’s part during discovery.

2) They can hope against hope that they get a really, really stupid AND Libertarian-leaning jury… in Washington DC.

3) They can hope their wingnut army keeps buying their lines about defending Freedom of Speech long enough to finance all the legal bills and the eventual judgement.

4) In Mark Steyn’s case, he might try what might be a hitherto unknown defense in a libel case. That is, he could claim that he’s too stupid to even understand anything that has been said about Mann’s work.

No, really. Mark Steyn recently wrote that he thinks the Hockey Stick is a “climate model” whose predictions have failed to be realized.

...This obviously guts any defense claiming he made the accusation against Mann without “reckless disregard to whether it was false or not,” so what can he do if the flow of wingnut money dries up?

So I’m asking you lawyers out there, has this defense ever been tried? I mean, I sort of doubt Steyn will resort to this, but you know… hypothetically… could he? That’s a precedent I wouldn’t mind seeing set.

[UPDATE: Mark Steyn linked to this page with the following comment. "BONUS! Ever anxious to help, Barry Bickmore (apparently auditioning to be my Javert) suggests that yours truly plead not guilty on grounds of insanity."

No, I suggested he plead not guilty on grounds of… sigh… he's making this way too easy. It's not even fun, anymore.]"

----

More at the link. Comments, FLWolverine? Anyone else?
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Quoting 496. Cochise111:
California drought not so "unprecedented."

Link
That's what many of us have stated. Of course, the last time there was a similar drought, California was home to a few thousand Native Americans, not nearly 40,000,000 of them. The last time there was a similar drought, California wasn't the place where nearly half of the fruits, nuts, and vegetables consumed by Americans were grown. The last time there was a similar drought, California wasn't the home of the high tech used by a majority of the planet's seven billion people. And so on. In short, it matters not whether the current drought is unprecedented in all of history; it only matters that's it's unprecedented in modern history...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting 500. Creideiki:


Well fortunately we have the newly dubbed PCM Specialist here to help us all out.

What's PCM? Well, obviously, it's Penguin Chick Mortality.


The PCM specialists from the University of Washington have published their results in the journal PLOS ONE:

Rains Spurred by Climate Change Killing Penguin Chicks

Abstract

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms, and climate models predict this trend will continue, potentially affecting wildlife populations. Since 1960 the number of days with >20 mm of rain increased near Punta Tombo, Argentina. Between 1983 and 2010 we followed 3496 known-age Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) chicks at Punta Tombo to determine how weather impacted their survival. In two years, rain was the most common cause of death killing 50% and 43% of chicks. In 26 years starvation killed the most chicks. Starvation and predation were present in all years. Chicks died in storms in 13 of 28 years and in 16 of 233 storms. Storm mortality was additive; there was no relationship between the number of chicks killed in storms and the numbers that starved (P = 0.75) or that were eaten (P = 0.39). However, when more chicks died in storms, fewer chicks fledged (P = 0.05, R2 = 0.14). More chicks died when rainfall was higher and air temperature lower. Most chicks died from storms when they were 9%u201323 days old; the oldest chick killed in a storm was 41 days old. Storms with heavier rainfall killed older chicks as well as more chicks. Chicks up to 70 days old were killed by heat. Burrow nests mitigated storm mortality (N = 1063). The age span of chicks in the colony at any given time increased because the synchrony of egg laying decreased since 1983, lengthening the time when chicks are vulnerable to storms. Climate change that increases the frequency and intensity of storms results in more reproductive failure of Magellanic penguins, a pattern likely to apply to many species breeding in the region. Climate variability has already lowered reproductive success of Magellanic penguins and is likely undermining the resilience of many other species.

Complete Paper ...

I can't fathom why anyone would choose to post a link to a dubious analysis by Willard Watts rather than read the actual science. Oops, guessed I answered my own question.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3600
Quoting 498. Cochise111:
Now researchers are blaming climate change for increased mortality rates of penguin chicks. Guess what they are using to justify their findings? You guessed it -- statistical models. The problem is that some of the variables in the models have absolutely no meaning:

Link


The Pine Beetle knows better than this...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 456. Neapolitan:
Realizing, of course, that climate isn't weather and weather isn't climate, I still thought I'd preemptively post this updated chart for those who're sure to claim that this month's US cold is a sure sign of, er, something:

temp
What cherry picking. Why not show daily records or better yet all-time records broken this month so far.

I guess cherry picking what ever you want ppl to believe happens on both sides, wouldn't you say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 498. Cochise111:
Now researchers are blaming climate change for increased mortality rates of penguin chicks. Guess what they are using to justify their findings? You guessed it -- statistical models. The problem is that some of the variables in the models have absolutely no meaning:

Link


Well fortunately we have the newly dubbed PCM Specialist here to help us all out.

What's PCM? Well, obviously, it's Penguin Chick Mortality.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
Dey don't make "specialist" like dey used to.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
The Norwegian villages in question -

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3018
Quoting 456. Neapolitan:
Realizing, of course, that climate isn't weather and weather isn't climate, I still thought I'd preemptively post this updated chart for those who're sure to claim that this month's US cold is a sure sign of, er, something:

temp


Looks like 97:3 to me....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting 492. ColoradoBob1:



Firefighters face 'a new reality'
January 30, 2014
UPDATED: As firefighters struggled to gain control over the second major brushfire this week, experts were warning that Norway faces a new seasonal reality regarding fire danger. Emergency crews simply didn't expect they'd need to fight such fires in the middle of winter, but a changing climate with unpredictable weather is now sparking calls for new levels of preparedness.
"Just a month ago, no one would have said there was a threat of brushfires in Trøndelagime at this of year," Dagfinn Kalheim, director of the Norwegian fire prevention association

Link



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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.