Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

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Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





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Quoting 592. schwankmoe:
my god, the ice age really is coming!
Yep. Any day now. In fact, it's happening already; it's just being masked by all that heat; as soon as that heat goes away, you'll see.

Remember, here in Denialist Fantasyland, less polar ice is a sign of more polar ice; rising global temperatures are a sign that those temperatures are on the way down; one ideological crackpot with no formal education in any of the sciences writing on some internet blog knows more about the planet's atmosphere than 10,000 highly-trained, -educated, and -experienced climate scientists; and despite the $100 billion-plus in annual profits, no one affiliated with the fossil fuel industry would ever lie to protect those profits. Also: up is down, black is white, etc.

I'm not sure why you alarmists have such a difficult time grasping all this...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Calif snowpack 12 percent of normal

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — State surveyors checking California's snowpack say a recent storm brought little help, and that snow levels in the Sierra Nevada are dangerously low.

California's Department of Water Resources on Thursday said the state's snowpack was at 12 percent of normal for this time of winter.


Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
Quoting 587. iceagecoming:

CB
Now I say, that is not very nice.

After all the support for your Gulf Stream energy
generation theories, which I feel are far more plausible than anything most eco-freaks here propose.

Sorry to disappoint you. I thought my comment was
timely and on point without any malice.

Probably didn't anyway, mayyy_be at 30. Birds were clean.

www.examiner.com/article/weather-history-january- 24-record-temps...

... LA tied their January record low with 14°. Locations that reported daily record low temperatures included ... 30°, West Palm Beach, FL: 33°, Naples, FL


my god, the ice age really is coming!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 587. iceagecoming:

CB
Now I say, that is not very nice.

After all the support for your Gulf Stream energy
generation theories, which I feel are far more plausible than anything most eco-freaks here propose.

Sorry to disappoint you. I thought my comment was
timely and on point without any malice.

Probably didn't anyway, mayyy_be at 30. Birds were clean.

www.examiner.com/article/weather-history-january- 24-record-temps...

... LA tied their January record low with 14°. Locations that reported daily record low temperatures included ... 30°, West Palm Beach, FL: 33°, Naples, FL


If you believe my idea is plausible then you must know no Ice Age is coming...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting 587. iceagecoming:

CB
Now I say, that is not very nice.

After all the support for your Gulf Stream energy
generation theories, which I feel are far more plausible than anything most eco-freaks here propose.

Sorry to disappoint you. I thought my comment was
timely and on point without any malice.

Probably didn't anyway, mayyy_be at 30. Birds were clean.

www.examiner.com/article/weather-history-january- 24-record-temps...

... LA tied their January record low with 14°. Locations that reported daily record low temperatures included ... 30°, West Palm Beach, FL: 33°, Naples, FL


Earths surface area 510,072,000 km2
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
589. ARiot
Quoting 586. ColoradoBob1:
Methane Rising As Funding Cuts Threaten Monitoring Network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors many potent greenhouse gases, such as methane, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, at observatories around the world. In the past six years, funding for part of the network %u2014 the collection of air samples in flasks %u2014 has not kept pace with cost increases, said Ed Dlugokencky, an atmospheric chemist with NOAA%u2019s Earth Sciences Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

%u201CWe%u2019ve had about a 25 percent decrease in the number of air samples measured from the global cooperative network,%u201D Dlugokencky told Live Science. %u201CIf we want to understand what is happening [with methane], we%u2019re going in the wrong direction to do that.%u201D

Link


That's sad.

The latest report from the NRC said that the methane bomb going off was less probable in their "Abrupt impacts of climate change" publication. However, they encouraged more monitoring and studies.

I hold the opinion that type of impact has the potential to be something that, if it were to happen in a 10-30 year period (rapidly), there would be nothing anyone could do but hold on.

The report also lessens their decade old probability estimate on the NAO problem (the thing made into a fantasy/action movie, The Day After Tomorrow).

Thier focus on sudden impacts is shifting to the potential sea-level rise from the west-Anarctic ice sheet and impacts of the loss of Polar sea ice up north.

http://www.nap.edu/


(I've linked to this before becuase I think how they approach the topic is prudent. What do we know, what's the immediate threat, etc.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 585. iceagecoming:
Great Lakes ice cover: Setting records during the Winter of 2013-2014
msue.anr.msu.edu · 22 hours ago


Great Lakes ice cover: Setting records during the Winter of 2013-2014
Thousands of years ago, the Great Lakes formed from ice, and ice continues to have a significant influence on each of the lakes.

Posted on January 29, 2014 by Steve Stewart, Michigan State University Extension


Twitter
The State News
The State News

@thesnews
22 hours ago

The snow and cold may make for grueling walks to class, but the frigid weather is helping Great Lakes water levels. ow.ly/t6UPj


Earths surface area 510,072,000 km2

Great lakes surface area 244,700 km2
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting 581. cyclonebuster:


Pine Beetles, Cockroaches, Kudzoo,Ticks,West Nile virus and Toenail Fungus are smarter than you and a few of these don't have a brain....

CB
Now I say, that is not very nice.

After all the support for your Gulf Stream energy
generation theories, which I feel are far more plausible than anything most eco-freaks here propose.

Sorry to disappoint you. I thought my comment was
timely and on point without any malice.

Probably didn't anyway, mayyy_be at 30. Birds were clean.

www.examiner.com/article/weather-history-january- 24-record-temps...

... LA tied their January record low with 14°. Locations that reported daily record low temperatures included ... 30°, West Palm Beach, FL: 33°, Naples, FL
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Methane Rising As Funding Cuts Threaten Monitoring Network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors many potent greenhouse gases, such as methane, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, at observatories around the world. In the past six years, funding for part of the network — the collection of air samples in flasks — has not kept pace with cost increases, said Ed Dlugokencky, an atmospheric chemist with NOAA’s Earth Sciences Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

“We’ve had about a 25 percent decrease in the number of air samples measured from the global cooperative network,” Dlugokencky told Live Science. “If we want to understand what is happening [with methane], we’re going in the wrong direction to do that.”

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
Great Lakes ice cover: Setting records during the Winter of 2013-2014
msue.anr.msu.edu · 22 hours ago


Great Lakes ice cover: Setting records during the Winter of 2013-2014
Thousands of years ago, the Great Lakes formed from ice, and ice continues to have a significant influence on each of the lakes.

Posted on January 29, 2014 by Steve Stewart, Michigan State University Extension


Twitter
The State News
The State News

@thesnews
22 hours ago

The snow and cold may make for grueling walks to class, but the frigid weather is helping Great Lakes water levels. ow.ly/t6UPj
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Quoting 582. iceagecoming:


It will come up on it's own. Even though we control the levels artificially.

Below posted by eco-alarmist extremists:

The Great Lakes Go Dry: How One-Fifth Of The World’s Fresh Water Is Dwindling Away

By Joanna M. Foster on January 28, 2014 at 11:23 am

People have lived on Washington Island for over 160 years. They’re proud of their tight-knit community and their Icelandic heritage. But life on the island is threatened. For the past 15 years, islanders have watched Lake Michigan slowly disappear. Last January, the lake hit a record low, 29 inches below the long-term average as measured since 1918. The Richter Ferry was just inches away from grounding in some spots along its increasingly treacherous six-mile route to the island.

People have lived on Washington Island for over 160 years. They’re proud of their tight-knit community and their Icelandic heritage. But life on the island is threatened. For the past 15 years, islanders have watched Lake Michigan slowly disappear. Last January, the lake hit a record low, 29 inches below the long-term average as measured since 1918. The Richter Ferry was just inches away from grounding in some spots along its increasingly treacherous six-mile route to the island.



http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/28/31933 01/climate-change-draining-great-lakes/

Link

The data from noaa seems to suggest large variations in the Great Lake levels since 1860, and I am sure if we used early french and english settler records we would see even larger lake level swings, but if your website is "thinkprogress" ((tranlate:brainwash)) how could it be wrong?

As my cousins across the pond would say "Rubbish"

Synonyms: bosh · nonsense · drivel · garbage · bunkum · tosh · codswallop




You think Marry Poppins will help it?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting 579. ColoradoBob1:
Norway -
Following the extensive brush fires in Trøndelag this week, the Met Office has issued warning of extreme danger of brush and forest fire along the whole western coast from Stavanger in the south, to Steinkjer in the north.

This is due to the high winds and lack of precipitation over several weeks in the whole region.


Link

Extreme fire danger in Norway in January.


The month of December was one of the mildest in a century in the Nordic countries, according to meteorologists, with temperatures exceeding their normal seasonal average by four to five degrees Celsius in Norway and Finland.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
Quoting 577. cyclonebuster:



So what's the solution...


It will come up on it's own. Even though we control the levels artificially.

Below posted by eco-alarmist extremists:

The Great Lakes Go Dry: How One-Fifth Of The World’s Fresh Water Is Dwindling Away

By Joanna M. Foster on January 28, 2014 at 11:23 am

People have lived on Washington Island for over 160 years. They’re proud of their tight-knit community and their Icelandic heritage. But life on the island is threatened. For the past 15 years, islanders have watched Lake Michigan slowly disappear. Last January, the lake hit a record low, 29 inches below the long-term average as measured since 1918. The Richter Ferry was just inches away from grounding in some spots along its increasingly treacherous six-mile route to the island.

People have lived on Washington Island for over 160 years. They’re proud of their tight-knit community and their Icelandic heritage. But life on the island is threatened. For the past 15 years, islanders have watched Lake Michigan slowly disappear. Last January, the lake hit a record low, 29 inches below the long-term average as measured since 1918. The Richter Ferry was just inches away from grounding in some spots along its increasingly treacherous six-mile route to the island.



http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/28/31933 01/climate-change-draining-great-lakes/

Link

The data from noaa seems to suggest large variations in the Great Lake levels since 1860, and I am sure if we used early french and english settler records we would see even larger lake level swings, but if your website is "thinkprogress" ((tranlate:brainwash)) how could it be wrong?

As my cousins across the pond would say "Rubbish"

Synonyms: bosh · nonsense · drivel · garbage · bunkum · tosh · codswallop


Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Quoting 580. iceagecoming:


Hope the GW did not freeze your bird bath.:)


Pine Beetles, Cockroaches, Kudzoo,Ticks,West Nile virus and Toenail Fungus are smarter than you and a few of these don't have a brain....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting 531. Neapolitan:
Appreciate the weather update. Of course, that image is from Spencer, MA, where the record January low is -15F, and this most recent cold snap came nowhere close to that. But thanks for your awesome contribution anyway...


Hope the GW did not freeze your bird bath.:)
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1096
Norway -
Following the extensive brush fires in Trøndelag this week, the Met Office has issued warning of extreme danger of brush and forest fire along the whole western coast from Stavanger in the south, to Steinkjer in the north.

This is due to the high winds and lack of precipitation over several weeks in the whole region.


Link

Extreme fire danger in Norway in January.
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
That 1 degree rise in Global Avg Temps imparts a 7-10% increase in Global WV.

Were seeing that percent manifest in every T-Storm and shower.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting 551. Daisyworld:
Lake Mead is shrinking -- and with it Las Vegas' water supply

Ben Tracy | CBS News | January 30, 2014

LAKE MEAD, Nev. - When you head out on Nevada's Lake Mead, the first thing you notice is a white line. That's where the water used to be.

What did this look like a decade ago?

"This was all underwater," said Pat Mulroy, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority. "I mean boats were everywhere. There was a whole marina here."

Mulroy said that the drought began 14 years ago. Satellite photos show the Colorado River, which feeds Lake Mead, is drying up -- so the lake is rapidly shrinking. Islands are growing, and boats are floating far from where they once were.

"It's a pretty critical point," Mulroy said. "The rate at which our weather patterns are changing is so dramatic that our ability to adapt to it is really crippled."

Lake Mead was created by the Hoover Dam in 1935. It provides water for 20 million people in southern Nevada, southern California and Arizona. Since 2000, the lake has lost 4 trillion gallons of water.

The bathtub ring is going to get bigger. Lake Mead is expected to drop at least another 20 feet this year. If it does that could trigger automatic cuts to the water supply for Nevada and Arizona.

That would hit Las Vegas hard. Ninety percent of the area's water comes from the lake. At least one of the city's two intake pipes could soon be above water. So to save the water supply Nevada is rushing to build a third intake even deeper.

Concrete slabs are being lowered 650 feet underground where a massive drill is creating a three-mile-long tunnel, one inch per minute. The project should be finished next year and costs $817 million.

"We're really scrambling to make sure that this intake is done in time before we lose our first intake," said J.C. Davis, the project's spokesperson. "Without Lake Mead, there would be no Las Vegas."

Despite its wasteful reputation, Las Vegas actually reuses 93 percent of its water. It's paid homeowners $200 million to rip up their thirsty lawns. The city added 400,000 people last decade but cut its water use by 33 percent.

"All of us are in it together, and all of us are either going to survive this or all of us are going to feel the consequences," Mulroy said.


The white 'bathtub ring' on the rocks around Lake Mead is from mineral deposits left by higher levels of water. Source: kpbs.org



So what's the solution...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20470
Quoting 575. ColoradoBob1:

A band of heavy rain sweeping will sweep across the South West, west Wales and southern England today, with 20mm to 30mm (0.8 to 1.2 inches) set to fall across many parts and as much as 40mm (1.6 inches) on high ground.

It has already been the wettest January in history, and experts say there is no sign of the unsettled weather dispersing for at least ten days, making it likely the country will have endured the wettest winter on record by the end of February.



Read more:Link


Flooding experts say Britain will have to adapt to climate change – and fast

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191

A band of heavy rain sweeping will sweep across the South West, west Wales and southern England today, with 20mm to 30mm (0.8 to 1.2 inches) set to fall across many parts and as much as 40mm (1.6 inches) on high ground.

It has already been the wettest January in history, and experts say there is no sign of the unsettled weather dispersing for at least ten days, making it likely the country will have endured the wettest winter on record by the end of February.



Read more:Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
JUNEAU, Alaska — Juneau had the wettest January on record.

Just over 10 inches of rain fell in Alaska's capital city in January, just edging out the previous record set in 1985.

Read more here: Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
On a side note, this is discouraging...:/

Looks as if Keystone is about to try and rally.

Pipeline boost? Keystone XL report may disappoint project's foes

The State Department is expected to release an environmental analysis on the Keystone XL oil pipeline as early as Friday that may disappoint environmentalists and opponents of the proposed project, according to individuals briefed on the matter.

Also thought this was a bit funny.

The report's findings were not immediately available, but government officials told Fox News the review would probably disappoint Keystone opponents who say the pipeline would carry "dirty oil" that contributes to global warming. One official said the report would be released Friday.

Probably not much facts in trying to argue that this pipeline has little to no impact on our climate and environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 570. yoboi:



Can you provide something that does not include so many maybes, possible, may have , may not etc....TIA


There are only two certainties in the world: death and taxes. Everything else is "maybe", "possible", "may have", "may not", etc.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 570. yoboi:



Can you provide something that does not include so many maybes, possible, may have , may not etc....TIA


*facepalm*

Your logic is the equivalent of Atlanta going "Oh? We might see 2-4" of snow? Might? Nah, not going to believe the NWS because they said the word 'might'."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
570. yoboi
Quoting 566. Birthmark:

That'd be post 549.



Can you provide something that does not include so many maybes, possible, may have , may not etc....TIA
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599

The Met Office has just announced its Decadal forecast 2014-2018

January 2014 - "The latest decadal forecast covering the period from 2014 to 2018 has been released by the Met Office Hadley Centre. These experimental decadal forecasts are specifically designed to forecast fluctuations in the climate system over the next few years through knowledge of the current climate state and multi-year variability of the oceans. This item looks at the latest decadal forecast and provides more detail about the decadal forecasting process, and what this latest forecast can tell us. ...

...The latest decadal forecast, issued in January 2014, shows that global temperatures are expected to maintain the record warmth that has been observed over the last decade, and furthermore that it is possible that new record global temperatures may be reached in the next five years. Averaged over the five-year period 2014-2018, global average temperature is expected to remain high and is likely to be between 0.17 °C and 0.43 °C above the long-term (1981-2010) average. This compares with an anomaly of +0.26 °C observed in 2010, the warmest year on record."

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3675
Quoting 469. Waltanater:
Looks like that "Global Warming" proof is indeed EVAPORATING! Ah ha ha ha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

* Utah's dirty air: A fast-growing state contends with a toxic mix of geography and industry


Browner, but greener: China stands out for its greenness in a new environmental ranking

*** Damp rising: An argument over dredging risks missing the point

!!! Filmy firn: A little-known mixture of ice and water may have a big effect on the sea level

Keystone Foes Say Two Pipelines Are Worse Than One

Ireland's turf war plan is 'bad news for climate'

*** To hear without being heard: First nonreciprocal acoustic circulator created

Integration brings quantum computer a step closer

*** Drug trafficking leads to deforestation in Central America

*** Climate study projects major changes in vegetation distribution by 2100

Robot with a taste for beer? Electronic tongue can identify brands of beer Rather taste beer myself

Utility offers more water after West Virginia chem spill

Hawaii lawmakers weigh killing invasive insects

!!! Its Great Lake Shriveled, Iran Confronts Crisis of Water Supply

* Missouri mine shines spotlight on global battle for rare-earth metals

New species of ugly, big-headed fish found in Idaho and Montana

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of Astrometeor:

Africa's Great Green Wall reaches out to new partners

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

* Shell abandons Arctic drilling plans for the year

Texas oil boom could be nearing slowdown, economist says

Electric cars top vehicle sales in Norway

Congress warms up to research on hemp

How Rise of Citizen Science Is Democratizing Research

Rio Grande Water Users Fear Groundwater Pumping Project

* Texas town fading away
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 565. yoboi:


Sorry what post number??

That'd be post 549.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
565. yoboi
Quoting 564. Birthmark:

I posted three links above. You can't possibly have had time to read even one of them yet. Ask again after you've read them...but you really won't have to ask. You'll know. She's a hot mess.


Sorry what post number??
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
Quoting 561. yoboi:



Evidence???

I posted three links above. You can't possibly have had time to read even one of them yet. Ask again after you've read them...but you really won't have to ask. You'll know. She's a hot mess.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 560. yoboi:


only for it some of the time....just because something is peer reviewed does not make it true.....

This is not news to anyone.

But unless one has ESP, it can be difficult to know when a paper is wrong.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 560. yoboi:


only for it some of the time....just because something is peer reviewed does not make it true.....

Ah, I see. Then you cherry pick when the validity of the peer review process applies. Got it.

Quoting 527. yoboi:


Why the need to cherry pick a region with Ice???? You would not do that with temps....."Global" temps...."Global" ice......Why cherry pick????

Why indeed.

Yep. I think we're done here.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 880
561. yoboi
Quoting 557. Birthmark:


She's just a hot mess at this point. She doesn't have a shred of credibility left. She might as well declare herself a member of the House of Lords and be done with it.



Evidence???
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
560. yoboi
Quoting 559. Daisyworld:


Either you're a proponent for peer review or not, yoboi. You can't have it both ways.


only for it some of the time....just because something is peer reviewed does not make it true.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
Quoting 550. yoboi:
Quoting 548. Daisyworld:

Quoting 541. yoboi:

I sure would like to see something peer reviewed that supports that population is the most important factor with science......
Now you're a proponent for peer review? Is this the same yoboi that posted this in Dr. Masters' blog last September?:

Quoting 60. yoboi (in Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog entry #2536):


the peer review process is a joke today...it's no diffrent than going to a bar and getting a beer then ask all the drunk guys is the beer good at this place......laughing stock is what it is......


Wow, yoboi. A bit of a flip-flop here. Care to elaborate on this discrepancy?


Just taking a cue from you and others....1 it needs to be peer reviewed 2 can not be a regional impact....


Either you're a proponent for peer review or not, yoboi. You can't have it both ways.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 880
558. yoboi
WASHINGTON -- The National Security Agency monitored the communications of other governments ahead of and during the 2009 United Nations climate negotiations in Copenhagen, Denmark, according to the latest document from whistleblower Edward Snowden.



Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
Quoting 555. JohnLonergan:


The same Judith Curry that forms part of the consensus in her peer-reviewed works, or the Curry that contradicts Curry on her blog and in front of Congress?


She's just a hot mess at this point. She doesn't have a shred of credibility left. She might as well declare herself a member of the House of Lords and be done with it.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 554. yoboi:
by Judith Curry

Central to arguments related to the hiatus and the ‘missing heat’ is the assertion that unusual amounts of heat are being stored in the deep ocean, and that this heat will eventually reappear at the surface. Exactly how good is the ocean heat content data on which this argument is based?


Link

Rule 3: If it's on Judith Curry's blog it's not science. It's not even commenting on science. It's FUD propaganda.

Now, if she has real *scientific* reservations, well, she knows how to publish. Do the work, Judith! Then run your keyboard.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 549. Birthmark:

Snort! LOL!

Link



The same Judith Curry that forms part of the consensus in her peer-reviewed works, or the Curry that contradicts Curry on her blog and in front of Congress?

Quoting Dr. Rabett:

Prof. Curry, perhaps you would be kind enough to reconcile the claim in your written testimony that increasing Antarctic sea ice extent as reported in the AR5 WGI report weakens the case for attributing most of the warming to human influences can be reconciled with your 2010 PNAS paper, Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice the abstract of which reads:

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models’ internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3675
554. yoboi
by Judith Curry

Central to arguments related to the hiatus and the ‘missing heat’ is the assertion that unusual amounts of heat are being stored in the deep ocean, and that this heat will eventually reappear at the surface. Exactly how good is the ocean heat content data on which this argument is based?


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
Quoting 544. tramp96:

He made his millions and is now gone leaving his little minions to peddle his tales. Damn those rich people oh wait all of our leaders are rich but thats ok we just hate the rich people they tell us to hate. Lemmings


You know there are about a half dozen logical fallacies in that little post, right?

Strawman
Ad hominem (against Gore)
Ad hominem (against pro-science people)
Nonsequitir
Begging the Question
Argument from Motives

That's impressive.

I stand in awe at your ability to obsess over someone to your political Right while complaining that he's somehow to your political Left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 550. yoboi:


Just taking a cue from you and others....1 it needs to be peer reviewed 2 can not be a regional impact....

You've botched number 2. It should read, "You cannot use a regional impact to represent the entire globe."
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
551. Daisyworld
2:52 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Lake Mead is shrinking -- and with it Las Vegas' water supply

Ben Tracy | CBS News | January 30, 2014

LAKE MEAD, Nev. - When you head out on Nevada's Lake Mead, the first thing you notice is a white line. That's where the water used to be.

What did this look like a decade ago?

"This was all underwater," said Pat Mulroy, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority. "I mean boats were everywhere. There was a whole marina here."

Mulroy said that the drought began 14 years ago. Satellite photos show the Colorado River, which feeds Lake Mead, is drying up -- so the lake is rapidly shrinking. Islands are growing, and boats are floating far from where they once were.

"It's a pretty critical point," Mulroy said. "The rate at which our weather patterns are changing is so dramatic that our ability to adapt to it is really crippled."

Lake Mead was created by the Hoover Dam in 1935. It provides water for 20 million people in southern Nevada, southern California and Arizona. Since 2000, the lake has lost 4 trillion gallons of water.

The bathtub ring is going to get bigger. Lake Mead is expected to drop at least another 20 feet this year. If it does that could trigger automatic cuts to the water supply for Nevada and Arizona.

That would hit Las Vegas hard. Ninety percent of the area's water comes from the lake. At least one of the city's two intake pipes could soon be above water. So to save the water supply Nevada is rushing to build a third intake even deeper.

Concrete slabs are being lowered 650 feet underground where a massive drill is creating a three-mile-long tunnel, one inch per minute. The project should be finished next year and costs $817 million.

"We're really scrambling to make sure that this intake is done in time before we lose our first intake," said J.C. Davis, the project's spokesperson. "Without Lake Mead, there would be no Las Vegas."

Despite its wasteful reputation, Las Vegas actually reuses 93 percent of its water. It's paid homeowners $200 million to rip up their thirsty lawns. The city added 400,000 people last decade but cut its water use by 33 percent.

"All of us are in it together, and all of us are either going to survive this or all of us are going to feel the consequences," Mulroy said.


The white 'bathtub ring' on the rocks around Lake Mead is from mineral deposits left by higher levels of water. Source: kpbs.org
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 880
550. yoboi
2:51 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 548. Daisyworld:


Now you're a proponent for peer review? Is this the same yoboi that posted this in Dr. Masters' blog last September?:



Wow, yoboi. A bit of a flip-flop here. Care to elaborate on this discrepancy?


Just taking a cue from you and others....1 it needs to be peer reviewed 2 can not be a regional impact....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
549. Birthmark
2:50 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 547. yoboi:
by Judith Curry

%u201CArctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s.%u201D - IPCC AR5 Chapter 10


Link

Snort! LOL!

Link

Link

Link
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
548. Daisyworld
2:49 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 541. yoboi:



I sure would like to see something peer reviewed that supports that population is the most important factor with science......


Now you're a proponent for peer review? Is this the same yoboi that posted this in Dr. Masters' blog last September?:

Quoting 60. yoboi (in Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog entry #2536):


the peer review process is a joke today...it's no diffrent than going to a bar and getting a beer then ask all the drunk guys is the beer good at this place......laughing stock is what it is......


Wow, yoboi. A bit of a flip-flop here. Care to elaborate on this discrepancy?
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 880
547. yoboi
2:49 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
by Judith Curry

“Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still considerable discussion of the ultimate causes of the warm temperature anomalies that occurred in the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s.” - IPCC AR5 Chapter 10


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2599
546. Birthmark
2:44 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 544. tramp96:

This the climate change blog, not the paranoid delusions blog.

And if you folks don't like Al Gore then why do you bring him up so often?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
545. Birthmark
2:31 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 543. yoboi:




Well if you want to understand Global climate you have to look at everything.....

Actually, you need look only at Earth's energy budget. We're taking in more energy than we are reflecting and re-radiating to space. If we're leaving out people, everything else is pretty much trivia, nothing more than how that excess energy is distributed within the Earth system.

Overall, that energy budget is a far better indicator of AGW than anything within the system.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
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