Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

Share this Blog
26
+

Are the changes in the Arctic messing with our weather? Analysis

In the last blog, I promised an analysis of why I conclude that what is happening in the Arctic makes it to my list of the big-ticket items of the past year.

I want to start with the work of Jennifer Francis and her collaborators. Professor Francis gave an excellent seminar in my department last week, which can be viewed here. This seminar uses as a foundation the paper Francis and Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. There is a whole set of coherent and convergent evidence that documents the changes in the Arctic. There is an increase in temperature, which is much greater in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and in the tropics (Polar or Arctic amplification). This has led to large changes in Arctic sea ice and springtime snow cover. There has been a lengthening of the growing season and an increase in activity in the northern forests – the greening of the Arctic (200 blogs ago, Getting Ready for Spring 5).

In the past, roughly, 15 years, there has been an observed change in the of the Arctic sea-level atmospheric pressure (see previous blog). The pressure is slightly higher, which leads to a weakening of the stream of air that flows around the North Pole. I wrote a tutorial about this in Wobbles in the Barrier. Also in the past decade there have been a number of researchers, for example, Liu et al. (2012) who in Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall – noted circulation patterns that have “ … some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation.”

These papers lead to a few questions. Are the changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure a direct consequence of local changes in the Arctic, or are they more closely related to changes in global circulation patterns? Are changes in the Arctic sea-level pressure causing changes in weather in the middle latitudes? Are the differences we have seen in the past 15 years indicative of a climate-change related differences in weather patterns? Is what we have traditionally called the Arctic Oscillation changing?

Trenberth and Fasullo are following the heat of the warming earth, with the primary goal of understanding of how much heat is contributing to warming the Earth’s surface air temperature versus how much is going to heating the ocean and melting ice and snow. Their focus is on approximately the past 15 years. Therefore, they pay attention to known ways that the atmosphere and ocean vary (Some previous tutorials: Still Following the Heat and Ocean, Atmosphere, Ice and Land). Trenberth and Fasullo document the strong influence of the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino typically has a large effect on global temperature. The 1997-1998 El Nino was especially large. Trenberth and Fasullo show that the temperature in the atmosphere and oceans still remembers the 1997-1998 El Nino. They also examine the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is characterized by sea surface temperature differences being above (or below) average in the north-central Pacific while they are below (or above) in the north and east Pacific near the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a pattern of being cooler than average in the north and east Pacific since the 1997-1998 El Nino. Trenberth and Fasullo document a pattern that spans the globe, and the changes in the Arctic are part of that pattern. Conversely, their analysis would suggest that the global aspects of circulation pattern are too large to be caused by changes in the Arctic – it just takes too much energy.

What might be a scientifically based difference between whether changes in the Arctic are part of a global pattern or caused by the loss of sea ice changing the absorption and reflection of solar energy is to some extent not relevant to the question about weather patterns over the U.S. My experience in scientific controversies of this nature is that there are usually both global and local pieces to the puzzle. Further, changes in the U.S. weather could be directly linked to changes in the Arctic as well as to global patterns. In both the Trenberth and Fasullo and the Francis and Vavrus (2012) analysis there are consequential changes in jet stream pattern which is strongly influential to weather in the U.S. and, in fact, all of the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

It’s not surprising that changes in the polar jet stream, the river of air that meanders around the North Pole, would have a profound effect on weather in the U.S. The waves that make up the weather systems of winter storms, for example, draw their energy from the environment that forms the jet stream. The jet stream steers these storms. In classes on dynamical meteorology, students learn that what is going on at the jet stream is often better information for forecasting weather than what is going on at the surface. Though there is a direct link between the jet stream and weather systems, the path of cause and effect in the changes in the Arctic, changes in the jet stream and changes to extreme events in the U.S. is not easy to map.

We have seen observations from Francis and Vavrus and Liu et al. (2012) that suggest large meanders in the jet stream. Both of these papers suggest that the scale of these meanders is unprecedented and does not fit easily into the framework we have used historically to describe the Arctic Oscillation - the primary way we describe correlated variability between the Arctic and the middle latitudes. In addition to the Arctic Oscillation, another characteristic we use to describe mid-latitude weather is blocking. Blocking describes a pattern of atmospheric flow, perhaps a particular configuration of the jet stream. Blocking slows or stops the normal west-to-east movement of storms around the Earth. Here is a nice description of blocking. Blocking is most common with high pressure, and high pressure is associated with the northern meanders of the jet stream. Note, blocking is associated with the meanders in the jet stream, but large meanders do not always mean that our definition of “block” is fulfilled. Blocking patterns are difficult to predict on a case-by-case basis. Blocking patterns are known to be associated with droughts, floods, heat waves and cold snaps. Therefore, when we look to a way that changes in the jet stream might change the weather over the U.S. we logically look a changes in blocking, which will discussed more fully in next blog.

r

Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”





Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1094 - 1044

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

1094. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:54 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
RickyRood has created a new entry.
1093. Naga5000
5:36 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1091. yoboi:
Link

Easy as abc....123...


YAY CONSPIRACY!
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3359
1092. Patrap
5:36 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Myth of Sustainability
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
1091. yoboi
5:34 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Link

Easy as abc....123...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
1090. ARiot
5:25 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1079. Cochise111:
This is the climate scientist to whom everyone should be paying attention. But wait, he actually predicts the climate accurately. That wouldn't be any use to most of those on this blog:

Link


It would be really cool if you would post that you now see how he's been proven wrong, multiple times, and his predictions aren't even as good as a slow moving government advisory panel with a few hundred old, tired, European socialists politicing over every word in a report bigger than most phone books.

Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1089. Cochise111
5:11 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1087. Xandra:
Republicans Face Backlash for Embracing Climate Science

D.R. Tucker:

"I decided to leave the GOP and become an independent largely because I grew sick and tired of the "RINO-hunting" in the party; part of that "RINO-hunting" involved the ostracism of Republicans who disagreed with Sen. James Inhofe on climate change. I felt that the GOP should be broad enough to encompass the views of both Sen. Inhofe and Rep. Inglis; I ended up learning, in a very vicious fashion, that this particular viewpoint would not be tolerated in the party."


I think the RINO's views on climate change have the least to do with their being ostracized. How about their views on giving amnesty to 11 million or so people who are in this country? How about their gutless agreements to spend more and more when the country is broke? Recent polls have shown that so-called "global warming" is of the least concern to most of the US public. When the true unemployment rate is almost 36%, and half the country is on some sort of government assistance, I don't think climate change means much to them. The public wants some action on the economy, no matter who is in office.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 328
1088. Cochise111
5:06 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Now "climate change" causes larger ocean waves, which makes it more difficult for fish to swim. What's next?

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 328
1087. Xandra
5:03 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Republicans Face Backlash for Embracing Climate Science

D.R. Tucker:

"I decided to leave the GOP and become an independent largely because I grew sick and tired of the "RINO-hunting" in the party; part of that "RINO-hunting" involved the ostracism of Republicans who disagreed with Sen. James Inhofe on climate change. I felt that the GOP should be broad enough to encompass the views of both Sen. Inhofe and Rep. Inglis; I ended up learning, in a very vicious fashion, that this particular viewpoint would not be tolerated in the party."
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
1086. Patrap
4:50 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
When we use to shoot gunite on a Unit at the Monsanto Plant above NOLA on the West bank, I always left those shifts with a bad taste in my mouth,.

Now I know it was the round up unit just east of where we worked.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
1085. Birthmark
4:40 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1082. cynyc2:
1076 - "*** We Need G.M.O. Wheat"

This op-ed is basically a Monsanto commercial. The comments are interesting....

Monsanto - the largest most evil corporation, that nobody has ever heard of.

Ain't they something? "Hey, our crap blew into your field! We're gonna sue you."

They take evil to whole new level.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1084. Birthmark
4:37 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1079. Cochise111:

Bless your heart! You believe in Easterbrook! lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1083. schwankmoe
4:37 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1075. iceagecoming:


Only thing I notice is a rash of these hyper-speed
battery boxes in the fast lane, could that be it?



Wonder how much fuel they burn at 80mph like this morn?
Should have seen the weaving, just to get 3 cars ahead
and dump off the exit into westport. Oh the shame, the irony, the hypocracy!

Talk about ruining our kids futures, "do what I say, not what I do."


why yes, the CO2 from all those cars is in fact one of the main causes of the warming we've seen. now you're getting it.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
1082. cynyc2
4:33 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
1076 - "*** We Need G.M.O. Wheat"

This op-ed is basically a Monsanto commercial. The comments are interesting....

Monsanto - the largest most evil corporation, that nobody has ever heard of.
Member Since: May 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
1081. Neapolitan
4:19 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1079. Cochise111:
This is the climate scientist to whom everyone should be paying attention. But wait, he actually predicts the climate accurately. That wouldn't be any use to most of those on this blog:
Before I clicked on the link, I briefly wondered which tired, old denialist CNS would trot out this time. I should have bet some money; I figured it'd be Easterbrook, Lindzen, Pielke, or one of those Eauro-quacks. Turns out to be--yawn--Easterbrook.

Surprise.

Of course, a fair question would be to ask why can't the anti-science types find one single new face in the crowd, someone credible and active, and who doesn't make money speaking for Heartland and other fossil fuel-funded groups. The thing is, though, we all know why they don't produce such a person: he or she simply doesn't exist.

Anyway, here's the updated January UAH chart showing Easterbrook's "cooling", using the Spencer/Christy chart format with a big, red linear trendline added.

heat

Cooling. Right...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
1080. JohnLonergan
4:09 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Cool animation from SkS:


This animation compares the observed global temperature change since 1990 (black curve) to projections of global temperature change from the first four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (red, pink, orange, green) and from various "climate contrarians" (blue, purple, green, gray dashed). The observations are given by the average of 3 primary global temperature datasets (NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4). All of the IPCC projections have proven to be quite accurate, suggesting high reliability. The contrarian projections all underestimate the global warming substantially, and in fact they erroneously predict global cooling and are quite unreliable. Details of the projections are described here, and additional comparisons can be found in the Lessons from Past Predictions series.

Don Easterbrook

Climate contrarian geologist Don Easterbook has been predicting impending global cooling since 2000, based on expected changes in various oceanic cycles (including ENSO) and solar activity. Easterbrook made two specific temperature projections based on two possible scenarios. As shown in Figure 1, neither has fared well.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3264
1079. Cochise111
3:43 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
This is the climate scientist to whom everyone should be paying attention. But wait, he actually predicts the climate accurately. That wouldn't be any use to most of those on this blog:

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 328
1078. cyclonebuster
1:33 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
The Penny batteries are still producing .8 to .9 volts with 400 milliamps each going on 48 hours now....Added some more vinegar..It must be evaporating some....Small hydrogen bubbles keep forming still....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20400
1077. Birthmark
12:01 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1075. iceagecoming:


Only thing I notice is a rash of these hyper-speed
battery boxes in the fast lane, could that be it?

What you haven't noticed is global cooling. That's really pretty remarkable and needs an explanation.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1076. BaltimoreBrian
5:20 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

*** We Need G.M.O. Wheat

!!! Chagas Disease: An Unfolding Tragedy In North America

*** Climate change and health in Earth's future

*** The difficult, the dangerous, and the catastrophic: Managing the spectrum of climate risks

*** Sea level rise and its coastal impacts

Which Anthropocene is it to be? Beyond geology to a moral and public discourse

* Is learning about climate change like having a colonoscopy?

*** Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

Nordex Sees Wind Installs Climbing Even as State Aid Is Cut

*** U.S. Push to Export Dirty Fossil Fuels Parallels Past Action on Tobacco

'Animal Pompeii' wiped out China's ancient creatures

Oxford breaks 247-year rainfall record

*** Your memory is no video camera; it edits the past with present experiences

!!! Climate change threatens to cause trillions in damage to world's coastal regions if they do not adapt to sea-level rise The most important article of the day.

!!! First evidence of common brain code for space, time, distance

*** Hot weather deaths projected to rise 257 percent in UK by 2050s, experts warn

* New maps highlight habitat corridors in the tropics

New technique makes 'biogasoline' from plant waste

*** Critically endangered leatherback turtles tracked to reveal danger zones from industrial fishing

*** Missouri AG challenges California egg law An obscure topic but important.

EPA shifts greenhouse gas permitting to Texas

Broad coalition backs Keystone XL oil pipeline

!!! Genes shed light on pygmy history

Louisiana editorial roundup


* E.P.A. Staff Struggling to Create Pollution Rule

*** Designer Seed Thought to Be Latest Target by Chinese

A brief history of organ transplants, from 800 BC to 2014 Bio-punk!

California governor slams GOP water proposal

Stopping Keystone won't stop climate change Compare and contrast with next article.

Keystone approval would set terrible example

Science Guy and Genesis Guy Clash in Evolution Debate

The complete Ham/Nye evolution debate. Debate starts 13 minutes into video.



Why Good Athletes Are Good-Looking, Too Yup :)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

* Potatoes could step up performance under climate change pressure

In Grid Debate, New Info Doesn't Sway Opinions



Why Texans Are Hearing a 'Loud Boom' During Earthquakes

*** Congress: West Virginia spill reveals inadequate regulations

* Environment loses out in Russia's race to Sochi

*** Senator Edward Markey: US coal sales might have cost taxpayers

Canadian group pitches Alaska rail line for oil sands Crash and burn?

!!! Yeeeehaw! Mars Rover Curiosity considering jumping sand dune
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
1075. iceagecoming
5:00 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1058. Birthmark:

Question: Why has the Earth been so warm for the last decade?


Only thing I notice is a rash of these hyper-speed
battery boxes in the fast lane, could that be it?



Wonder how much fuel they burn at 80mph like this morn?
Should have seen the weaving, just to get 3 cars ahead
and dump off the exit into westport. Oh the shame, the irony, the hypocracy!

Talk about ruining our kids futures, "do what I say, not what I do."
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1061
1074. Birthmark
3:30 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1073. yoboi:



well....I guess to certain people it is not relevant how the "real" numbers are achieved......

You haven't supported in the least that the World Bank bases its numbers on how much aid is passed in Congress. Try again.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1073. yoboi
3:24 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1072. Birthmark:

I asked for evidence that any of that is relevant, not whether pork occurs. Try again.



well....I guess to certain people it is not relevant how the "real" numbers are achieved......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
1072. Birthmark
3:19 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1071. yoboi:



Link


Link

I asked for evidence that any of that is relevant, not whether pork occurs. Try again.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1071. yoboi
3:13 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1070. Birthmark:

Evidence that any of that is relevant?



Link


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
1070. Birthmark
3:07 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1069. yoboi:



Misleading numbers....when they pass relief bills now they add a bunch of pork to it.....Plus you need to add the corruption after such events....Take a look at the federal trial going on now with post Katrina....

Evidence that any of that is relevant?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1069. yoboi
3:06 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1068. Birthmark:

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator, $50 billion in 1980 is equal to $141 billion current dollars. So even if they didn't adjust for inflation there is an increase.



Misleading numbers....when they pass relief bills now they add a bunch of pork to it.....Plus you need to add the corruption after such events....Take a look at the federal trial going on now with post Katrina....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
1068. Birthmark
3:01 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1067. JohnLonergan:
They should be adjusting the values for inflation to get a reasonable sense that weather disasters are becoming more frequent and/or more extreme.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator, $50 billion in 1980 is equal to $141 billion current dollars. So even if they didn't adjust for inflation there is an increase.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1067. JohnLonergan
2:53 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1066. Birthmark:

All that is well and good, but the article from the World Bank compared current weather disaster costs to those in 1980 -not 1950 or 1542.
They should be adjusting the values for inflation to get a reasonable sense that weather disasters are becoming more frequent and/or more extreme.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3264
1066. Birthmark
2:43 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1063. yoboi:

All that is well and good, but the article from the World Bank compared current weather disaster costs to those in 1980 -not 1950 or 1542.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1065. Birthmark
2:41 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
My own horn. Tooting it I am.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1064. AlwaysThinkin
2:12 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1051. overwash12:
More people around to witness it also. Might have a neighborhood get hit by an f-5 tornado. 50 years ago it was a cornfield that would have been destroyed.


In many areas that would get tornadoes there are actually LESS people to see them. Here's a few counties in the Great Plains that have lost 60 or more percent of their population since 1900. So in other words what was a scattering of houses is now a corn field. This is also why we don't just throw out anecdotes when we don't really understand stuff and pretend like it's verifiable evidence.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
1063. yoboi
2:03 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1061. Neapolitan:
Incorrect.





For the last 50 years, world population multiplied more rapidly than ever before, and more rapidly than it is projected to grow in the future. In 1950, the world had 2.5 billion people; and in 2005, the world had 6.5 billion people. By 2050, this number could rise to more than 9 billion (see chart "World Population Growth, 1950-2050").



Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2334
1062. JohnLonergan
1:54 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1060. pcola57:
From Union of Concerned Scientists..
The UCS Editorial Cartoon Contest..
Click HERE..


I thought this one was good.


Science, either you get it or you don't.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3264
1061. Neapolitan
1:54 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1051. overwash12:
More people around to witness it also. Might have a neighborhood get hit by an f-5 tornado. 50 years ago it was a cornfield that would have been destroyed.
Incorrect.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
1060. pcola57
1:37 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
From Union of Concerned Scientists..
The UCS Editorial Cartoon Contest..
Click HERE..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6814
1059. Patrap
1:00 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Seems someone got lost looking for a weather blog entry. Try the directory, "New Ice Age" is in it.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
1058. Birthmark
12:54 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1057. iceagecoming:

Question: Why has the Earth been so warm for the last decade?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1057. iceagecoming
12:49 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Freeze warning in effect from 3 am to 8 am PST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Hanford has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 3 am to 8 am PST Wednesday for
the central and southern San Joaquin Valley.

* Temperatures: minimums of 28 to 32 degrees expected Wednesday
morning.

* Timing: late tonight through early Wednesday morning.

* Locations include: Bakersfield... Hanford... Lemoore...
Corcoran... Merced... Madera... Los Banos... Mendota.

* Impacts: below freezing temperatures will kill sensitive
vegetation.

* For a detailed view of the hazard area... visit
http://www.Wrh.NOAA.Gov/wrh/whv/?Wfo=hnx.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means minimum temperatures between 28 and 32
degrees are imminent or likely. These conditions will kill crops
and other sensitive vegetation. Provide shelter for animals and
bring pets inside.



Special Statement
Statement as of 2:28 PM PST on February 04, 2014

... Low elevation snow likely Thursday and Friday then a warmer and
wetter storm this weekend...

* impacts: periods of hazardous travel, chain controls, and
travel delays are likely along the mountains during these
storms. Debris flows may be possible along burn scars this
weekend.

* Forecast confidence: high confidence in impacts. Medium
confidence in timing and coverage. Low confidence in specific
rain and snow amounts.

* Timing and strength: the first system will arrive late
Wednesday and continue into Friday, with the primary concern
being moderate snow accumulations over the mountains. Snow
levels will be in the 500-1500 ft range across the Shasta County
mountains, and 2500-3500 ft range along the west slopes of the
northern Sierra Nevada.

The second system will arrive this weekend and continue into
early next week. Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible
across the valley, with moderate to heavy snow accumulations
above 6000 ft.



Dang


So much for the drought scare, recall the same was said for Atlanta, climate something, global scare something or other. yada yada yada.

Looks like mother nature dun B*tch slapped AGW.
and the nyc mayor

nypost.com/.../de-blasio-opens-schools-despite-st ate-of-...‎
New York Post
Jan 22, 2014 - Parents and kids lashed out Wednesday at Mayor de Blasio and ... Between a foot of snow and negative wind chill


Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1061
1056. JohnLonergan
12:42 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1055. Birthmark:

I think that the train-wreck that is "austerity" has just become too obvious to ignore.
In Paul Krugman's mind and some other sensible economists minds, but there are still a lot of austerians (or is it austrians)that have the ears of rightwing politicians, both in the US and in Europe.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3264
1055. Birthmark
12:35 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1052. Naga5000:


On that note, what's up with The World Bank and the IMF making sense lately. After that horrible economic paper based on a spreadsheet error Link has been rectified, both organizations seem to have made a bit of an about face. Strange indeed.

I think that the train-wreck that is "austerity" has just become too obvious to ignore.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1054. Birthmark
12:33 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1051. overwash12:
More people around to witness it also. Might have a neighborhood get hit by an f-5 tornado. 50 years ago it was a cornfield that would have been destroyed.

That's certainly part of it, so is inflation. But even when both are taken into account, there is a definite upward trend to extreme weather events globally.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1053. JohnLonergan
12:25 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1050. Birthmark:

We do indeed.

Yes, extreme weather has always occurred, but it is occurring more often now. Even the World Bank has noticed.
Yah, World Bank, Swiss Re, Munich Re and all the other major reinsurers, all the businesses that stand to lose big bucks recognize the consequences of AGW.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3264
1052. Naga5000
12:22 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1050. Birthmark:

We do indeed.

Yes, extreme weather has always occurred, but it is occurring more often now. Even the World Bank has noticed.


On that note, what's up with The World Bank and the IMF making sense lately. After that horrible economic paper based on a spreadsheet error Link has been rectified, both organizations seem to have made a bit of an about face. Strange indeed.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3359
1051. overwash12
12:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1050. Birthmark:

We do indeed.

Yes, extreme weather has always occurred, but it is occurring more often now. Even the World Bank has noticed.
More people around to witness it also. Might have a neighborhood get hit by an f-5 tornado. 50 years ago it was a cornfield that would have been destroyed.
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1466
1050. Birthmark
12:18 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 1048. overwash12:
More extreme weather? Huh? When has our weather ever been anything but? WE have always had extreme weather events throughout history.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say we got more coming!

We do indeed.

Yes, extreme weather has always occurred, but it is occurring more often now. Even the World Bank has noticed.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
1049. Patrap
12:15 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
Leading Scientists Explain How Climate Change Is Worsening California's Drought

Posted February 4, 2014

By Joseph Romm

Scientists have long predicted that climate change would bring on ever-worsening droughts, especially in semi-arid regions like the U.S. Southwest. As climatologist James Hansen, who co-authored one of the earliest studies on this subject back in 1990, told me this week,Increasingly intense droughts in California, all of the Southwest, and even into the Midwest have everything to do with human-made climate change.

Why does it matter if climate change is playing a role in the Western drought? As one top researcher on the climate-drought link reconfirmed with me this week,The U.S. may never again return to the relatively wet conditions experienced from 1977 to 1999. If his and other projections are correct, then there may be no greater tasks facing humanity than 1) working to slash carbon pollution and avoid the worst climate impact scenarios and 2) figuring out how to feed nine billion people by mid-century in a Dust-Bowl-ifying world.

Remarkably, climate scientists specifically predicted a decade ago that Arctic ice loss would bring on worse droughts in the West, especially California. As it turns out, Arctic ice loss has been much faster than the researchers and indeed all climate modelers expected.

And, of course, California is now in the death-grip of a brutal, record-breaking drought, driven by the very change in the jet stream that scientists had anticipated. Is this just an amazing coincidence or were the scientists right? And what would that mean for the future? Building on my post from last summer, I talked to the lead researcher and several other of the world's leading climatologists and drought experts.

First, a little background. Climate change makes Western droughts longer and stronger and more frequent in several ways, as I discussed in my 2011 literature review in the journal Nature:

Precipitation patterns are expected to shift, expanding the dry subtropics. What precipitation there is will probably come in extreme deluges, resulting in runoff rather than drought alleviation. Warming causes greater evaporation and, once the ground is dry, the Sun's energy goes into baking the soil, leading to a further increase in air temperature. That is why, for instance, so many temperature records were set for the United States in the 1930s Dust Bowl; and why, in 2011, drought-stricken Texas saw the hottest summer ever recorded for a US state. Finally, many regions are expected to see earlier snowmelt, so less water will be stored on mountain tops for the summer dry season.

I labeled this synergy Dust-Bowlification. The West has gotten hotter thanks to global warming, and that alone is problematic for California.

The extra heat from the increase in heat trapping gases in the atmosphere over six months is equivalent to running a small microwave oven at full power for about half an hour over every square foot of the land under the drought, climatologist Kevin Trenberth explained to me via email, during a drought. No wonder wild fires have increased! So climate change undoubtedly affects the intensity and duration of drought, and it has consequences. California must be very vigilant with regard to wild fires as the spring arrives.

Climate change undoubtedly affects the intensity and duration of drought, and it has consequences.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
1048. overwash12
12:11 AM GMT on February 05, 2014
More extreme weather? Huh? When has our weather ever been anything but? WE have always had extreme weather events throughout history.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say we got more coming!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1466
1047. Patrap
11:29 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Is good.

sum of us are "meter" challenged
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
1046. Naga5000
11:29 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 1042. Birthmark:

Uh-huh. Soooo...there's no evidence of a government/scientist conspiracy, as I (and the vast majority of people) have suspected.


It would have to be international as well. Don't forget that. Oh and every major scientific organization are a part of it too.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3359
1045. ColoradoBob1
11:28 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 1028. Patrap:
That's 150 feet per day, as I linked in the article yesterday at one point.


Yes, and please see my seed at NewsVine 7 years ago when it was moving 1 foot aday. Along with video .
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2364
1044. overwash12
11:27 PM GMT on February 04, 2014
Quoting 999. cyclonebuster:


More like a subtropical cyclone.. The only difference is if it happened today it would be a hurricane...
Yeah,with more hype than ever before! Got it!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1466

Viewing: 1094 - 1044

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22Blog Index

Top of Page

About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.