Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:25 AM GMT on December 08, 2013

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Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

I’ve been living with this cold weather in Colorado this week. If you look around at the Wunderground personal weather station sites, we’ve seen a lot of about -10 F at nights. It’s been causing a lot of grief for homeless people, animals and pipes. There have been a few record lows set. The whole Arctic air mass is starting to move east, which means it will get a lot more press. According to Jeff Master’s blog 80% of the country will be below average.

I thought I had finished my series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation a couple of weeks ago, but this cold air out break takes me back. It that series I wrote about cold air in the Arctic that is isolated because of barriers caused by streams of rapidly moving air that flows around polar latitudes. I described wobbles in the streams that caused cold air to move south and warm air to move north. Here is one of the figures that I used.



Figure 1: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). This represents a weak, wavy, wobbly vortex displaced from the pole. The vortex encloses cold air, represented as blue. The line surrounding the cold air is the jet stream or the edge of the vortex. (definition of vortex)

Figure 1 shows an idealized schematic of the North Pole as viewed from above. This is the weak vortex case, when there is a large wobble. In this case, the point X is cold and the point Y is warm. In a case of a stronger, more circular vortex, then the case would be reversed, with point X warm and point Y cold.

Here is a figure from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), that I have marked up a bit. The colors are the temperatures at the 850 hecto-Pascal surface, which is about 1.5 kilometers above the surface. The 850 hecto-Pascal temperatures are a good indicator of where it is hot and cold at the surface.


Figure 2: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). The contour lines on the figure are the height of the 500 hecto-Pascal surface, which is between 5 and 6 kilometers above the surface of the Earth. The colors are the temperatures at the 850 hecto-Pascal surface, which is about 1.5 kilometers above the surface. The 850 hecto-Pascal temperatures are a good indicator of where it is hot and cold at the surface. Figure from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

I drew a blue arrow showing that the cold air at the pole has wobbled off of the pole and it is pushed towards Colorado. To the west there is warm air, red arrow, pushing up towards Alaska. So while it has been cold in Colorado, it has been quite warm in much of Alaska. Though a less prominent signal, there has also been warm air moving up the East Coast of the U.S. The Alaska – Colorado contrast is a nice real-world example of what I showed in Figure 1. For completeness with my example, the big, black dashed line is the jet stream of air flowing around the pole.

There were several points in my series on the Arctic Oscillation. The first important point is that even in a world that is getting warmer, the polar latitudes become isolated as the Sun goes down for the winter and jet stream intensifies. In this isolation it gets cold, because there is no heating from the Sun and the polar latitudes have a barrier between themselves and the warmer lower latitudes. The second important point is this wobble, the pushing of air off of the pole in some direction. In this case the coldest air is over Greenland, Canada and the U.S. If there is sufficient wobble to push the air far to the south or if it gets pushed to some place it did not get pushed before, then it is even likely to have record cold. These points are all work together and are not correctly viewed as independent events. (I was recently annoyed by the parenthetical dismissal of global warming in this otherwise nice prediction of early strong lake effect snow in Michigan. The statement was essentially pockets of cold Arctic air should not exist.)

I will finish with the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation Index from the Climate Prediction Center is shown in Figure 3. The discussion in my Arctic Oscillation series focused on the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation Index. Much of the attention was on the eastern U.S. The negative phase was when it is likely to be very cold in the eastern U.S.



Figure 3: Arctic Oscillation Index for early August 2013 until December 7, 2013 from the Climate Prediction Center

In this measure of the Arctic Oscillation Index, the most recent times have been weakly positive, tending towards negative. (Perhaps suggesting movement of the cold air towards the U.S. east coast?) Perhaps more important Figures 2 and 3 together show that large undulations with warm air pushing far northward and cold air displaced off the pole can occur in other parts of the world when the index is weak. As pointed out many other times over the years of this blog, what goes on in the U.S. is not good instantaneous editorial content for climate change.

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Previous entries:

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”

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Quoting 420. overwash12:
I have a friend who lives in Montana,she said it already hit -41 F. and it ain't winter yet! Cheers and Godspeed!



Is Montana a global temperature?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 427. ScottLincoln:

Over long term averages, most locations see their coldest temperatures in the middle of meteorological winter, a week or two after astronomical winter.

But that isn't really a solid forecast for when you will see your coldest temps in any given year. And you can't take very cold temperatures in early winter, then just assume that it will be colder later in winter.

That maybe true,look at the average temps. for a year in a specific location. When are the daily highs and lows at their lowest? That is my point.
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting 405. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Global Cooling is a hoax. Ice Ages oh yeah they will come again, just not anytime in the near future. No source or citation needed, Dr. Rood, Dr. Masters, and many other scientist at NOAA can confirm the facts if you are having doubts, they went through the rigorous schooling, went on missions to other places to confirm the facts about Global Warming. Stop trying to deny the planet is warming, the more one does it, the more sillier it becomes to the point that it is not even worth paying attention too. Debate, ha there is no debating anymore that has come and gone, now we must find ways to control it from getting even warmer and out of hand.

Hence why countries are going forth with renewable energy. I can't wait to see the day we don't need to rely on fossil fuels anymore. Or even better is flying cars. We have that technology we have the brains, might as well use it to change the world. I challenge everyone on here to make a difference if you have not yet had one on the world just yet.



"I challenge everyone on here to make a difference if you have not yet had one on the world just yet."

LOL...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 428. JohnLonergan:

... Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971%u20132000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.


...and the climate of 2013 is warmer than the climate of 1971-2000.

The same people that think cold weather in 2% of the globe are the same people that think a Scandinavian mountain range is the whole globe. I sense a pattern.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 414. Birthmark:

It wasn't.




Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3403
Quoting 426. overwash12:
I know about that,but typically the coldest temps arrive 10 to 15 days after the winter solstice. Correct?

Over long term averages, most locations see their coldest temperatures in the middle of meteorological winter, a week or two after astronomical winter.

But that isn't really a solid forecast for when you will see your coldest temps in any given year. And you can't take very cold temperatures in early winter, then just assume that it will be colder later in winter.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 424. Birthmark:

You might want to check on the winter thing. Meteorologically, differs from astronomical winter.
I know about that,but typically the coldest temps arrive 10 to 15 days after the winter solstice. Correct?
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Most deniers are scientifically illiterate:
- They point to papers that state something different to what they think it says.
- They make suggestions which break the laws of physics.
- They are ignorant of basic science and cannot follow derived mathematics.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3403
Quoting 420. overwash12:
I have a friend who lives in Montana,she said it already hit -41 F. and it ain't winter yet! Cheers and Godspeed!

You might want to check on the winter thing. Meteorologically, differs from astronomical winter.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 410. yoboi:



ok I will post guys that worked for NOAA & NASA....


And you picking and choosing scientists to quote out of context is supposed to prove something, yoboi? Again, we see your inability to understand science. It's not about one scientist, or a handful. It's about a consensus of scientists who make up the scientific opinion from which the mainstream climate science flows.

Of course, mainstream climate science won't change YOUR opinion. You've got your conclusion, which was pre-established without any methodology or data collection on your part, disallowing any critical analysis. You've posted nothing but lies and disinformation since you arrived here, and nothing you write is going to make your fraudulent opinion any more truthful.

So stop posting as if you understand climate science or the scientific process.

Better yet, stop posting altogether.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 859
Ise jus' funnin'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 415. Birthmark:

Remember, folks. "!" and "-" will make idiotic posts go away!

Merry Christmas!
I have a friend who lives in Montana,she said it already hit -41 F. and it ain't winter yet! Cheers and Godspeed!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Boing'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Yoboi says watch out for Solar Cycle 25.

Xulonn ways watch out for the next El Nino!!! Many scientists believe that that big atmosphere ocean heat mover might kick up the atmospheric temp rise curve, perhaps even more then 1998. Of course, it will also provide a new cherry-picking point for the denialists in the following years where atmospheric warming "slows down" again, since they seem to be not birght enougn to understand the difference between trends and cycles on appropriate time scales.

I notice that one who calls himself StormTracker is no longer talking a lot about a looming El Nino (unless I missed it.) NOAA has extended their prediction of ENSO-Neutral conditions from spring of 2014 into summer of 2014 with their monthly update for December. So I guess we'll just have to wait a bit longer for the next El Nino.

Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
Good evening everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Dr. Masters' blog:

Quoting 528. barbamz:
A Tale of Two Cities: America's Bipolar Climate Future
Spiegel English, by Marc Hujer and Samiha Shafy, December 13, 2013 – 05:24 PM
New York City and New Bern, North Carolina both face the same projected rise in sea levels, but while one is preparing for the worst, the other is doing nothing on principle. A glimpse into America's contradictory climate change planning. ...

Have a nice Sunday! Good night from Germany.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3403
Quoting 413. overwash12:

Remember, folks. "!" and "-" will make idiotic posts go away!

Merry Christmas!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 412. Cochise111:


Why is it that the Roman and Medieval Warming Periods were warmer than today's climate before the increase in CO2?

It wasn't.


Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 412. Cochise111:


Why is it that the Roman and Medieval Warming Periods were warmer than today's climate before the increase in CO2? I think you have fallen for a hoax.
I have not fallen for it,even if it were 110 degrees for Christmas! LOL
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting 405. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Global Cooling is a hoax. Ice Ages oh yeah they will come again, just not anytime in the near future. No source or citation needed, Dr. Rood, Dr. Masters, and many other scientist at NOAA can confirm the facts if you are having doubts, they went through the rigorous schooling, went on missions to other places to confirm the facts about Global Warming. Stop trying to deny the planet is warming, the more one does it, the more sillier it becomes to the point that it is not even worth paying attention too. Debate, ha there is no debating anymore that has come and gone, now we must find ways to control it from getting even warmer and out of hand.

Hence why countries are going forth with renewable energy. I can't wait to see the day we don't need to rely on fossil fuels anymore. Or even better is flying cars. We have that technology we have the brains, might as well use it to change the world. I challenge everyone on here to make a difference if you have not yet had one on the world just yet.


Why is it that the Roman and Medieval Warming Periods were warmer than today's climate before the increase in CO2? I think you have fallen for a hoax.
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
411. yoboi
Quoting 409. Birthmark:

My thunder. You stealed it. :)



I would have thought AGW stole it....;)
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
410. yoboi
Quoting 408. TheDevilsAdvocate:

No we don't, we just have you making things up -- like a broken record.




ok I will post guys that worked for NOAA & NASA....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
Quoting 408. TheDevilsAdvocate:

No we don't, we just have you making things up -- like a broken record.


My thunder. You stealed it. :)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 406. yoboi:

We have many scientist from NOAA & NASA that disagree....

No we don't, we just have you making things up -- like a broken record.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Transformation of America's Energy Economy

In a ground-breaking move, voters in Boulder, Colorado, approved an initiative to end their relationship with Xcel Energy, a utility with $10.7 billion in revenues, thus clearing the way for the city to form its own municipal utility that would lower rates and make greater use of renewable energy.

Opponents of the effort had themselves put the question on the ballot in order to block measures by the city council. They also tried through a second initiative to hamstring the city from issuing enough bonds to be able to afford the purchase of Xcel's facilities.

During the fierce battle that attracted national attention, corporate executives and their allies argued that the city had neither the money nor the expertise to manage such a complex enterprise. Advocates for the municipal utility, including New Era Colorado Foundation, fought back with a crowd-funding campaign that raised more than three times their financial goal. In a landslide, two-thirds of voters supported the idea of bringing the utility under public control and then rejected the borrowing limits designed to kill the deal by a similar margin.

Though the utility industry has gone through a wave of consolidation over the last two decades, they are starting to show the strains of technological, economic, and political change. Municipal utilities are far more common than most people are aware, with more than 1000 already functioning in the United States, serving 50 million customers, a population greater than the size of Spain. Most of these entities are owned by cities, and controlled by panels of local citizens. Some are even cooperatives owned by their members.

As the price of solar energy steadily comes down - and as oil continues to rise - the transformation of America's energy economy is under way. The two critical questions for those who want to see America shift to a new economy that is just and sustainable for people and planet, is whether the technological shift from a centralized fossil fuel grid will be matched by a smaller shift from centralized large-scale corporations to democratic control. If this happens, with cities like Boulder leading the way, the energy, the dollars, and the decisions about the future will move into the hands of local communities, which would free more Americans to take the transformative steps we both want and need.

Truth-Out.org
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
406. yoboi
Quoting 405. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Global Cooling is a hoax. Ice Ages oh yeah they will come again, just not anytime in the near future. No source or citation needed, Dr. Rood, Dr. Masters, and many other scientist at NOAA can confirm the facts if you are having doubts, they went through the rigorous schooling, went on missions to other places to confirm the facts about Global Warming. Stop trying to deny the planet is warming, the more one does it, the more sillier it becomes to the point that it is not even worth paying attention too. Debate, ha there is no debating anymore that has come and gone, now we must find ways to control it from getting even warmer and out of hand.

Hence why countries are going forth with renewable energy. I can't wait to see the day we don't need to rely on fossil fuels anymore. Or even better is flying cars. We have that technology we have the brains, might as well use it to change the world. I challenge everyone on here to make a difference if you have not yet had one on the world just yet.



We have many scientist from NOAA & NASA that disagree....whom should we believe??????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
Global Cooling is a hoax. Ice Ages oh yeah they will come again, just not anytime in the near future. No source or citation needed, Dr. Rood, Dr. Masters, and many other scientist at NOAA can confirm the facts if you are having doubts, they went through the rigorous schooling, went on missions to other places to confirm the facts about Global Warming. Stop trying to deny the planet is warming, the more one does it, the more sillier it becomes to the point that it is not even worth paying attention too. Debate, ha there is no debating anymore that has come and gone, now we must find ways to control it from getting even warmer and out of hand.

Hence why countries are going forth with renewable energy. I can't wait to see the day we don't need to rely on fossil fuels anymore. Or even better is flying cars. We have that technology we have the brains, might as well use it to change the world. I challenge everyone on here to make a difference if you have not yet had one on the world just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
More reasons why climate "science" is so amusing in the rest of the scientific world:

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
403. yoboi
Morano on CNN: 'The idea that we’re having extreme weather, listening to Michael [Brune] talk , it's mind boggling. I mean, the earth is geologically billions of years old and we're sitting around here scratching our heads saying wow we had a hurricane last year which was barely a category 1 when it hit. And then, he's mentioning funding by the way which I think is funny. The Sierra Club took 26 million from natural gas and Michael has the audacity to try to imply that skeptics are fossil fuel funded.'




Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
Quoting 389. tramp96:
blah, blah, regional temperatures, blah, blah,
Interesting opinions about the 2% of global warming energy that is going into the atmosphere, but why do these people ignore the multiple lines of evidence that so strongly support AGW/CC? Are they ignorant, or are they purposefully ignoring the 98% of the net positive heat flow that is primarily going into the hydrosphere by warming oceanic waters, and also into the heat of fusion to melt massive amounts of ice, which involves no temperature rise at the 32 degree F fusion point of water?

Can these Ph.D. scientists be that ignorant, or are they just practicing purposeful deception and/or confirmation bias?

Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
Quoting 398. goosegirl1:


Quoting 351. Cochise111:


It's really funny, but many on this blog are fond of blaming "Big Oil" for everything "wrong" in this world. Turns out that the Sierra Club received over $20 million in contributions from oil companies. Talk about hypocrisy.


No one is trying to hide this... why didn't you include a link?

Link

Read the article to find out what happened, why it happened and what the new club management did to block future occurrences.


They don't read articles about science. That takes too much effort. They'd rather spam us with links to one-sided, lie-filled opinion pieces and call it "science" instead of doing any real work.

Thanks for filling the gaps in their knowledge deficit. Considering the size of their knowledge deficit, it's a monumental task.

Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 859
Quoting 378. iceagecoming:
blah, blah, blah, snowstorm, blah, blah, blah...
Thanks for pointing out what Dr. Master, Dr. Rood and other scientists are saying about AGW/CC, whiplash weather and more extremes in weather - including record cold and snowstorms- even though the overall global average trend is towards warmer weather.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
Earth ‘may be doubly sensitive’ to CO2

The sensitivity of the Earth system to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be twice as great as scientists had thought, new climate records from the distant past suggest.

LONDON, 11 December – You may think the prospect of climate change is alarming, a call to action to slow down our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

You’re almost certainly right. But some scientists are now suggesting you should be much more concerned than you are, because they think we may be seriously underestimating the problem.

The Geological Society of London (GSL) says the sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to CO2 could be double earlier estimates.

The Society has published an addition to a report by a GSL working party in 2010, which was entitled Climate change: Evidence from the Geological Record.
The addition says many climate models typically look at short term, rapid factors when calculating the Earth’s climate sensitivity, which is defined as the average global temperature increase brought about by a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Scientists agree that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4.5°C, caused by rapid changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and water vapour.

But what the GSL now says is that geological evidence from palaeoclimatology (studies of past climate change) suggests that if longer-term factors are taken into account, such as the decay of large ice sheets, the Earth’s sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 could itself be double that predicted by most climate models.

CO2′s significance
Dr Colin Summerhayes, who led the statement’s working group, says: “The climate sensitivity suggested by modern climate models may be fine for the short term, but does not encompass the full range of change expected in the long term…”

But he cautions that there are really two “sensitivities” involved: “Climate sensitivity is what happens in the short term in response to a doubling of CO2. But the Earth system sensitivity is what happens in the longer time frame as ice sheets slowly melt, and as sea level slowly rises.

“…The IPCC focuses on… the climate sensitivity – what will happen in the next 100 years. Earth system sensitivity tells you what happens in the next couple of hundred years after that.”

The GSL’s addition also reports new data showing that temperature and CO2 levels recorded in Antarctic ice cores increase at the same time. This, says Summerhayes, “makes the role of CO2 in changing Ice Age climate highly significant.”

Atmospheric carbon levels are currently just below 400 parts per million (ppm) – a figure last seen between 5.3 and 2.6 million years ago. Global temperatures were then 2-3°C higher than today, and sea levels were several metres higher, due to partial melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

If the current rate of increase (2 ppm per year) continues, CO2 levels could reach 600 ppm by the end of this century; levels which, says Summerhayes, “have not been seen for 24 million years”.

Models match palaeoclimate
The new GSL statement outlines evidence that a relatively modest rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature leads to significant sea level rise, with oceans more acidic and less oxygenated. Previous such events caused marine crises and extinctions, with the Earth system taking around 100,000 years to recover.

Dr Summerhayes said: “We now have even more confidence from the geological record that the only plausible explanation for current warming is the unprecedented exponential rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

“Recent compilations of past climate data, along with astronomical calculations, show that changes in the Earth’s orbit and axis cooled the world over the past 10,000 years. This cooling would normally be expected to continue for at least another 1,000 years.

“And yet Arctic palaeoclimate records show that the period 1950-2000 was the warmest 50 year interval for 2,000 years. We should be cool, but we’re not.”

He told Climate News Network: “The main implication from my perspective is that the geological record tells us that increasing CO2 increases temperature, melts ice, and raises sea level. This we know independently of any fancy numerical model run by climate scientists.

“However, those climate scientists’ models happen to come up with about the same answer as we get from the geological record, which suggests that the modellers are likely to be on the right track.” – Climate News Network
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3403
Quoting 351. Cochise111:


It's really funny, but many on this blog are fond of blaming "Big Oil" for everything "wrong" in this world. Turns out that the Sierra Club received over $20 million in contributions from oil companies. Talk about hypocrisy.


No one is trying to hide this... why didn't you include a link?

Link

Read the article to find out what happened, why it happened and what the new club management did to block future occurrences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
396. yoboi
Quoting 393. FLwolverine:
The US is not the globe; the Scandes Mountains are not the globe.

Sigh



You are correct they are part of the globe......But where we have the best and most up-to-date technology shows a cooling trend.....Science it's a great thing....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
Quoting 391. yoboi:



Curry & Spencer are top well respected Scientist......
Your science filter needs cleaning again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 391. yoboi:



Curry & Spencer are top well respected Scientist......



Both are 3%ers.........
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
The US is not the globe; the Scandes Mountains are not the globe.

Sigh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 390. FLwolverine:
Link




Darn those pesky facts.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3403
391. yoboi
Quoting 389. tramp96:
If you think the Earth is hot now, try wearing plate armor in the Middle Ages.

A Swedish study found that the planet was warmer in ancient Roman times and the Middle Ages than today, challenging the mainstream idea that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers of global warming.

The study, by scientist Leif Kullman, analyzed 455 “radiocarbon-dated mega-fossils” in the Scandes mountains and found that tree lines for different species of trees were higher during the Roman and Medieval times than they are today. Not only that, but the temperatures were higher as well.


“Historical tree line positions are viewed in relation to early 21st century equivalents, and indicate that tree line elevations attained during the past century and in association with modern climate warming are highly unusual, but not unique, phenomena from the perspective of the past 4,800 years,” Kullman found. “Prior to that, the pine tree line (and summer temperatures) was consistently higher than present, as it was also during the Roman and Medieval periods.”

Kullman also wrote that “summer temperatures during the early Holocene thermal optimum may have been 2.3°C higher than present.” The “Holocene thermal optimum was a warm period that occurred between 9,000 and 5,000 years ago. This warm period was followed by a gradual cooling period.”

According to Kullman, the temperature spikes were during the Roman and Medieval warming periods “were succeeded by a distinct tree line/temperature dip, broadly corresponding to the Little Ice Age.”

For many years now, there was an alleged scientific consensus that the Earth was warming due to humans releasing greenhouse gases into the air — primarily through burning fossil fuels. However, temperatures stopped rising after 1998, leaving scientists scrambling to find an explanation to the hiatus in warming.

Increasingly, scientists are looking away from human causes and looking at solar activity and natural climate variability for explanations of why the planet warms and cools.


“All other things being equal, adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will have a warming effect on the planet,” Judith Curry, a climatologist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, told the Los Angeles Times. “However, all things are never equal, and what we are seeing is natural climate variability dominating over human impact.”

The Kullman study points to mounting evidence that climate is largely out of human control, as humans were not burning large amounts fossil fuels during Roman and Medieval times.

Some scientists have pointed to solar activity as the predictor of where global temperatures are headed. Researchers have pointed to falling sunspot activity as evidence that the planet will cool off in the coming decades.

“By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, [Professor Mike Lockwood of Reading University] has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years,” the BBC reports. “Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.”

Others have looked to natural climate systems for explanations for answers to the 15-year pause in global warming.

A study by Dr. Roy Spencer from the University of Alabama, Huntsville found that about half the warming that occurred since the 1970s can be attributed to El Niño weather events, which had a warming effect on the planet.

The Pacific Ocean’s natural warming and cooling cycles last about 30 years, with La Niña cooling being dominant from the 1950s to the 1970s and El Niño warming events dominating late 1970s to the late 1990s. Spencer suggests that the world may be in a La Niña cooling period.



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/13/study-earth-was- warmer-in-roman-medieval-times/#ixzz2nT3nBpmQ



Curry & Spencer are top well respected Scientist......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2374
Link


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 386. Creideiki:


Well, clearly we're all that matters!


Yes the rest of the world doesn't count...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 379. iceagecoming:


Leftists don't like it when the truth comes out, Snowden is exposing all the Dem's dirty secrets.



State Surveillance Cannot Override Limits of Privacy

By The New Indian Express

Published: 14th December 2013 06:00 AM

Last Updated: 14th December 2013 01:24 AM

The jury may still be out on the extent to which state surveillance ought to be permitted in the name of national security, a debate that has kicked up following former NSA contractor Edward Snowden’s revelations about America’s rampant global snooping operations earlier this year. But the sense of excesses on the part of the Obama administration, given the mounting worldwide outrage, has found an echo within the US. On Monday, eight rival technology giants joined forces to call on Obama and the Congress to reform surveillance laws.


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One only needs to look at the Arctic to know the whistle has already been blown on climate change...








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Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
Quoting 384. cyclonebuster:



Is the USA Global or local?


Well, clearly we're all that matters!
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For the poster who put up #379:

Odd, I didn't see anything about climate change or anthropogenic causes there, or arguing anything related to climate--not even weather.

There is a semi-regular ostrich poster here who started his own blog where random partisan political nonsense is welcomed. I'm not sure why you posted that here and not there.
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Quoting 383. nymore:
NCDC has the U.S. temperature for the U.S. in November at a balmy 41.6 degrees or 0.3 degrees below normal. Cold records outnumbered high records nearly 3 to 1 (2238 to 749).

December seems to have started off a bit chilly to, we will just have to wait and see where this month ends up. The cold records are crushing the warm records for the month so far.


Have a nice day.



Is the USA Global or local?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20401
NCDC has the U.S. temperature for the month of November at a balmy 41.6 degrees or 0.3 degrees below normal. Cold records outnumbered high records nearly 3 to 1 (2238 to 749).

December seems to have started off a bit chilly to, we will just have to wait and see where this month ends up. The cold records are crushing the warm records for the month so far.


Have a nice day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.