Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:25 AM GMT on December 08, 2013

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Cold Weather in Denver: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (8)

I’ve been living with this cold weather in Colorado this week. If you look around at the Wunderground personal weather station sites, we’ve seen a lot of about -10 F at nights. It’s been causing a lot of grief for homeless people, animals and pipes. There have been a few record lows set. The whole Arctic air mass is starting to move east, which means it will get a lot more press. According to Jeff Master’s blog 80% of the country will be below average.

I thought I had finished my series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation a couple of weeks ago, but this cold air out break takes me back. It that series I wrote about cold air in the Arctic that is isolated because of barriers caused by streams of rapidly moving air that flows around polar latitudes. I described wobbles in the streams that caused cold air to move south and warm air to move north. Here is one of the figures that I used.



Figure 1: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). This represents a weak, wavy, wobbly vortex displaced from the pole. The vortex encloses cold air, represented as blue. The line surrounding the cold air is the jet stream or the edge of the vortex. (definition of vortex)

Figure 1 shows an idealized schematic of the North Pole as viewed from above. This is the weak vortex case, when there is a large wobble. In this case, the point X is cold and the point Y is warm. In a case of a stronger, more circular vortex, then the case would be reversed, with point X warm and point Y cold.

Here is a figure from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), that I have marked up a bit. The colors are the temperatures at the 850 hecto-Pascal surface, which is about 1.5 kilometers above the surface. The 850 hecto-Pascal temperatures are a good indicator of where it is hot and cold at the surface.


Figure 2: This figure is from the point of view of someone looking down from above at the North Pole (NP). The contour lines on the figure are the height of the 500 hecto-Pascal surface, which is between 5 and 6 kilometers above the surface of the Earth. The colors are the temperatures at the 850 hecto-Pascal surface, which is about 1.5 kilometers above the surface. The 850 hecto-Pascal temperatures are a good indicator of where it is hot and cold at the surface. Figure from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

I drew a blue arrow showing that the cold air at the pole has wobbled off of the pole and it is pushed towards Colorado. To the west there is warm air, red arrow, pushing up towards Alaska. So while it has been cold in Colorado, it has been quite warm in much of Alaska. Though a less prominent signal, there has also been warm air moving up the East Coast of the U.S. The Alaska – Colorado contrast is a nice real-world example of what I showed in Figure 1. For completeness with my example, the big, black dashed line is the jet stream of air flowing around the pole.

There were several points in my series on the Arctic Oscillation. The first important point is that even in a world that is getting warmer, the polar latitudes become isolated as the Sun goes down for the winter and jet stream intensifies. In this isolation it gets cold, because there is no heating from the Sun and the polar latitudes have a barrier between themselves and the warmer lower latitudes. The second important point is this wobble, the pushing of air off of the pole in some direction. In this case the coldest air is over Greenland, Canada and the U.S. If there is sufficient wobble to push the air far to the south or if it gets pushed to some place it did not get pushed before, then it is even likely to have record cold. These points are all work together and are not correctly viewed as independent events. (I was recently annoyed by the parenthetical dismissal of global warming in this otherwise nice prediction of early strong lake effect snow in Michigan. The statement was essentially pockets of cold Arctic air should not exist.)

I will finish with the Arctic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation Index from the Climate Prediction Center is shown in Figure 3. The discussion in my Arctic Oscillation series focused on the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation Index. Much of the attention was on the eastern U.S. The negative phase was when it is likely to be very cold in the eastern U.S.



Figure 3: Arctic Oscillation Index for early August 2013 until December 7, 2013 from the Climate Prediction Center

In this measure of the Arctic Oscillation Index, the most recent times have been weakly positive, tending towards negative. (Perhaps suggesting movement of the cold air towards the U.S. east coast?) Perhaps more important Figures 2 and 3 together show that large undulations with warm air pushing far northward and cold air displaced off the pole can occur in other parts of the world when the index is weak. As pointed out many other times over the years of this blog, what goes on in the U.S. is not good instantaneous editorial content for climate change.

r

Previous entries:

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 2

Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation 1

Wobbles in the Barriers

Barriers in the Atmosphere

Behavior

Definitions and Some Background

August Arctic Oscillation presentation

CPC Climate Glossary “The Arctic Oscillation is a pattern in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates between negative and positive phases.”

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East Coast Governors Call Out Rust Belt For Pollution

Eight Democratic governors representing states on the East Coast intend to petition the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday in an effort to curb pollution in states located in the Midwest and Rust Belt, the New York Times reported.

The governors are aiming to crack down on pollution in regions of the country dominated by coal plants and factories and where environmental regulations tend to be lax.

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy (D), who is leading the effort, said that the pollution from those states invariably affects people in other states.

"I care about this because it's put Connecticut at an economic disadvantage," Malloy told the Times. "We're paying a lot of money to remove these compounds from the air. That money is reflected in higher energy costs. We're more than willing to pay that, but the states we're petitioning should have to follow the same rules."

"They're getting away with murder," Malloy added. "Only it's in our state, not theirs."
The Supreme Court this week will hear arguments on the Obama administration's regulations to cut greenhouse gas emissions, including the so-called "good neighbor" rule requiring states to reduce coal pollution that drifts into other states.


TalkingPointsMemo.com

**added Six good reasons to watch the Supreme Court's interstate air pollution case (Grist.org)

"Only after the last tree has been cut down.
Only after the last river has been poisoned.
Only after the last fish has been caught.
Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten."

- Cree Indian Prophecy
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 57. 1911maker:
Articles that speak to the CO2 lag lead thing.

Pay wall abstract
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6123/1042.s ummaryLink

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/enviro nment/carbon-dioxide-and-temperature-levels-are-mo re-tightly-linkedLink

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= ice-core-data-help-solveLink

Ice Core Data Help Solve a Global Warming Mystery

Why do some ice core samples seem to indicate CO2 spikes trailed increases in global temperature? It’s all about the way bubbles move in ice

By William Ferguson

...................
There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty about which came first—a spike in temperature or CO2. Until now, the most comprehensive records to date on a major change in Earth’s climate came from the EPICA Dome C ice core on the Antarctic Plateau. The data, covering the end of the last ice age, between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, show that CO2 levels could have lagged behind rising global temperatures by as much as 1,400 years. “The idea that there was a lag of CO2 behind temperature is something climate change skeptics pick on,” says Edward Brook of Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “They say, ‘How could CO2 levels affect global temperature when you are telling me the temperature changed first?’”.......................


Lead Lag = Action Reaction
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 79. no1der:
I'm currently at AGU. My own area of geology is not so well-represented this year, so I've been spending time in the climate and atmospheric sessions. 

As mentioned in Xandra's RealClimate links, there are many excellent keynotes and named lectures that will be live-streamed and also available online after the conference, and I highly recommend seeing these. Sen. Olympia Snowe's talk today was superb and discouraging, and Jim Hansen's talk tomorrow may be even more so...

Please note that from January, these recorded talks will be available only to AGU members, but until then anyone can register to stream them. See details off the linked RealClimate article or http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2013/virtual-options/


Will they be on YouTube eventually?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
I'm currently at AGU. My own area of geology is not so well-represented this year, so I've been spending time in the climate and atmospheric sessions. 

As mentioned in Xandra's RealClimate links, there are many excellent keynotes and named lectures that will be live-streamed and also available online after the conference, and I highly recommend seeing these. Sen. Olympia Snowe's talk today was superb and discouraging, and Jim Hansen's talk tomorrow may be even more so...

Please note that from January, these recorded talks will be available only to AGU members, but until then anyone can register to stream them. See details off the linked RealClimate article or http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2013/virtual-options/
Quoting 56. Xandra:
Information from RealClimate:

Fall AGU is the largest Earth Science conference on the planet, and is where you will get previews of new science results, get a sense of what other experts think about current topics, and indulge in the more social side of being a scientist. The full scientific program is available for searching here.

In recent years, there has been an increasing amount of virtual content – including live streaming of key sessions and high profile lectures, and continuous twitter commentary (follow the hashtag #AGU13), that give people not attending to get a sense of what’s going on. Gavin and Mike are attending and will try and give some highlights as the week goes along, here and via twitter (follow @ClimateOfGavin and @MichaelEMann).

Some obvious highlights (that will be live-streamed) are the Frontiers of Geophysics lecture from the Jim Hansen (Tuesday, 12:30pm PST), Senator Olympia Snowe (Monday, 12:30pm), Judith Lean (Tues 10:20am), the Charney Lecture from Lenny Smith (Tues 11:20am), James Elsner on tornado connections to climate change (Tues 2:40pm), David Grinspoon (the Sagan lecture, Thurs 9am), and Bill Ruddiman (Thursday 2:40pm). Some full sessions will also be livestreamed – for instance, The future of IPCC session (Tues 10:20am-12:30pm), and the Climate Literacy sessions (Tues 4:00pm-6:00pm, Wed 8am-12:30pm).

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Quoting 57. 1911maker:
Why do some ice core samples seem to indicate CO2 spikes trailed increases in global temperature? It’s all about the way bubbles move in ice

By William Ferguson

...................
There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty about which came first—a spike in temperature or CO2. Until now, the most comprehensive records to date on a major change in Earth’s climate came from the EPICA Dome C ice core on the Antarctic Plateau. The data, covering the end of the last ice age, between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, show that CO2 levels could have lagged behind rising global temperatures by as much as 1,400 years. “The idea that there was a lag of CO2 behind temperature is something climate change skeptics pick on,” says Edward Brook of Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “They say, ‘How could CO2 levels affect global temperature when you are telling me the temperature changed first?’”.......................

Apparently, the denialist train of thought is that similar things happen precisely the same way every single time. Using their reasoning, one could move to a town that has never had a murder, kill someone, and be acquitted since all previous deaths in that town were natural or accidental, therefore, murder is clearly impossible.

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 59. yoboi:



In 2013, winter begins on December 21.

Astronomically speaking, that is. Meteorologically speaking, winter has been with us for more than a few days now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 72. iceagecoming:








The Scientists behind the the development of nuclear weapons

Looks like 2-3 guys might be under 30, otherwise a
bunch of old folks.


But what would they know about Physics?

Probably quite a lot since they stayed active in the field and produced results, unlike the fossils you present who have nothing but unsupported opinion to share.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 60. Cochise111:

And by "wind" you mean gas-fired power plants, right? Rather a novel interpretation of wind. But then, you have many novel interpretations. None of them have been accurate thus far. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 59. yoboi:



In 2013, winter begins on December 21.


Gosh! You mean it got cold in the continental US twelve days before the official arrival of winter?

Well, I guess that about wraps it up for AGW. LOL
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 72. iceagecoming:








The Scientists behind the the development of nuclear weapons

Looks like 2-3 guys might be under 30, otherwise a
bunch of old folks.


But what would they know about Physics?


What do they know about the Hockey Stick?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 55. yoboi:


What I find mind boggling is why you think the age of a scientist determines if he/she should be doing research....I did not know science worked that way....








The Scientists behind the the development of nuclear weapons

Looks like 2-3 guys might be under 30, otherwise a
bunch of old folks.


But what would they know about Physics?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69. iceagecoming:



"There have been a few record lows set."

Hmm? Makes you wonder what it'll be like when winter starts?

I think the last Blog entry about heatwaves
was more interesting.




What's the ratio between record lows and record highs on a global scale? Do you really want to go there again?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Caught up for the day for now...Off to Dr. Michael E Mann's Facebook for now......
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393



"There have been a few record lows set."

Hmm? Makes you wonder what it'll be like when winter starts?

I think the last Blog entry about heatwaves
was more interesting.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 60. Cochise111:
Wind power produces more CO2 than using other forms of power generation alone (but it makes people feel better about using electricity). Let's see, spend lots of money, kills hundreds of thousands of birds and bats, increase CO2 emissions (which doesn't affect anything anyway) to make power that would be more efficient using natural gas. Typical wacko-green utopia.

Link


Really what if you used solar energy to make the wind power products?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:
You continue to insult the thinking folks here by assuming we won't perform any due diligence on the denialist swill you so often bring to these pages. The thing is, Guy LeBlanc Smith is yet another aging, low-level fake skeptic who was at one time a geologist but who is now attempting to stay relevant by peddling BS to Curry, Watts, and other fossil fuel fundees.

I find it truly remarkable that a handful of retired octogenarian geologists who haven't published in decades possess far more knowledge about the climate than the planet's thousands of active atmospheric scientists. Mind-boggling, it is...


Is the retired octogenarian geologists one of the 3%?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 48. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I have never heard of a single climatologist make the claim that a warming climate will not initiate the release of sequestered CO2. How does this negate the effect of rising CO2 levels not initiating the process of warming the climate? Even if all of the forensic evidence shows that a warming climate always preceded higher CO2 levels it will not negate the scientific evidence that rising CO2 levels will initiate a warming climate. Try as you might, you cannot show any evidence that increasing CO2 levels will not also result in increasing the temperature of our planet, when all else remains the same. You would need to show the weakness in The Laws of Physics, Chemistry and Thermodynamics that would allow for this to be. Take heart in your pursuits to do so. There will certainly be a Nobel Prize awaiting anyone that can do so. ... Just for the record, I hope that you do get a Nobel Prize for your pursuits along this line.


He's got it backwards....LOL... I'll use my analogy using his science...LOL.. If you compress air it cools... If you vent air to a lower pressure it warms.....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 44. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am not a scientist but I do consider that the next strong and extended El Nino event, working in conjunction with an increased solar cycle, will very likely result in an ice free Arctic Ocean during the summer months. ... All of the denial industries' puppets that reside here may bookmark this page for later use. Do be aware that I am using a common denier tactic by using my "gut instincts" to make this prediction. Unlike the deniers among us here that will use their "gut instincts" for their predictions, I strongly desire that my prediction is wrong.


You are correct and at that point we are beyond the tipping point...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 40. Neapolitan:
Precisely. Which is why a growing number of climate scientists are expecting that the next strong El Nino we see will release another burst of deep ocean heat, resulting in a year considerably warmer than even 1998 (a year which will no doubt become the new high water mark to which denialists can compare every subsequent year to claim "It hasn't warmed since 20XX"...)


And when that correction happens it will be beyond the tipping point...... Sorry...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 36. Cochise111:
"The 'alarmists' may have the 'experts' but the 'skeptics' have the data."

Link


That's correct the expert's have 97% of the consensus that Fossil Fuel GHG's cause climate warming while the skeptics have 3% of the nonscientific data showing otherwise...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 32. Neapolitan:
Yes, the US is cold this week. But even the densest and dullest of denialists--a title for which there appears to be an overabundance of contestants--can look at the following temperature anomaly map and see that the blue blob over the middle of North America is in no way representative of the globe as a whole, and it's especially not representative of the Northern Hemisphere. (Note, too, the >20C anomalies in northern Alaska. On the Arctic Coast. Where the sun isn't even shining.)

cold?

So, yes, it's cold in Texas. But you should know that Texas comprises roughly 1/800th of the planet's surface.


Neapolitian is correct.... You should also note it is hard for Alaska to get cold weather right now due to lack of Arctic Ice around the state... Water exists where ice should be and so the warmer water is modifying the climate around Alaska a bit...The warmer ocean waters modify the air temperature in the area and so now we get record highs because of the lack of ice on ocean waters....Same thing happens down near Miami in the winter where it can get cold sometimes but the ocean modifies the air near the coast and can prevent a hard freeze.... Inland some of the crops may freeze because they are further from the ocean.... On Neapolitians post # 32 notice the chart where all the red is in Alaska it is where the ice should be and so we have warmer temps........






Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:
You continue to insult the thinking folks here by assuming we won't perform any due diligence on the denialist swill you so often bring to these pages. The thing is, Guy LeBlanc Smith is yet another aging, low-level fake skeptic who was at one time a geologist but who is now attempting to stay relevant by peddling BS to Curry, Watts, and other fossil fuel fundees.

I find it truly remarkable that a handful of retired octogenarian geologists who haven't published in decades possess far more knowledge about the climate than the planet's thousands of active atmospheric scientists. Mind-boggling, it is...


As usual, attack the messenger, because you can't refute the data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind power produces more CO2 than using other forms of power generation alone (but it makes people feel better about using electricity). Let's see, spend lots of money, kills hundreds of thousands of birds and bats, increase CO2 emissions (which doesn't affect anything anyway) to make power that would be more efficient using natural gas. Typical wacko-green utopia.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 58. Creideiki:


What a beautiful strawman you've created! I know! It's cold (because, you know, it's winter and all); let's burn it!



In 2013, winter begins on December 21.

Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2330
Quoting 55. yoboi:


What I find mind boggling is why you think the age of a scientist determines if he/she should be doing research....I did not know science worked that way....


What a beautiful strawman you've created! I know! It's cold (because, you know, it's winter and all); let's burn it!
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
Articles that speak to the CO2 lag lead thing.

Pay wall abstract
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6123/1042.s ummaryLink

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/enviro nment/carbon-dioxide-and-temperature-levels-are-mo re-tightly-linkedLink

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= ice-core-data-help-solveLink

Ice Core Data Help Solve a Global Warming Mystery

Why do some ice core samples seem to indicate CO2 spikes trailed increases in global temperature? It’s all about the way bubbles move in ice

By William Ferguson

...................
There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty about which came first—a spike in temperature or CO2. Until now, the most comprehensive records to date on a major change in Earth’s climate came from the EPICA Dome C ice core on the Antarctic Plateau. The data, covering the end of the last ice age, between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, show that CO2 levels could have lagged behind rising global temperatures by as much as 1,400 years. “The idea that there was a lag of CO2 behind temperature is something climate change skeptics pick on,” says Edward Brook of Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “They say, ‘How could CO2 levels affect global temperature when you are telling me the temperature changed first?’”.......................
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Information from RealClimate:

AGU 2013 preview and participation

8 December 2013

So, it’s that time of year again.

Fall AGU is the largest Earth Science conference on the planet, and is where you will get previews of new science results, get a sense of what other experts think about current topics, and indulge in the more social side of being a scientist. The full scientific program is available for searching here.

In recent years, there has been an increasing amount of virtual content – including live streaming of key sessions and high profile lectures, and continuous twitter commentary (follow the hashtag #AGU13), that give people not attending to get a sense of what’s going on. Gavin and Mike are attending and will try and give some highlights as the week goes along, here and via twitter (follow @ClimateOfGavin and @MichaelEMann).

Some obvious highlights (that will be live-streamed) are the Frontiers of Geophysics lecture from the Jim Hansen (Tuesday, 12:30pm PST), Senator Olympia Snowe (Monday, 12:30pm), Judith Lean (Tues 10:20am), the Charney Lecture from Lenny Smith (Tues 11:20am), James Elsner on tornado connections to climate change (Tues 2:40pm), David Grinspoon (the Sagan lecture, Thurs 9am), and Bill Ruddiman (Thursday 2:40pm). Some full sessions will also be livestreamed – for instance, The future of IPCC session (Tues 10:20am-12:30pm), and the Climate Literacy sessions (Tues 4:00pm-6:00pm, Wed 8am-12:30pm).

For attendees, there are a number of events close to our hearts: A bloggers forum for discussion on science blogging (Mon 5pm), the Open Mic night hosted by Richard Alley (Mon 7:30pm at Jillian’s Restaurant), and the AGU 5k run on Wednesday morning (6:30am).

Also AGU and the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund have organised a facility for individual consultations with a lawyer (by appointment via lawyer@climatesciencedefensefund.org) for people either who have found themselves involved in legal proceedings associated with their science or people who are just interested in what they might need to be prepared for. There is a brown bag lunch session on Friday (12:30pm PST) for a more informal discussion of relevant issues.

There are obviously many individual presentations that will be of interest, but too many to list here. Feel free to add suggestions in the comments and look out for updates all next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:
You continue to insult the thinking folks here by assuming we won't perform any due diligence on the denialist swill you so often bring to these pages. The thing is, Guy LeBlanc Smith is yet another aging, low-level fake skeptic who was at one time a geologist but who is now attempting to stay relevant by peddling BS to Curry, Watts, and other fossil fuel fundees.

I find it truly remarkable that a handful of retired octogenarian geologists who haven't published in decades possess far more knowledge about the climate than the planet's thousands of active atmospheric scientists. Mind-boggling, it is...


What I find mind boggling is why you think the age of a scientist determines if he/she should be doing research....I did not know science worked that way....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2330
Quoting 47. Cochise111:
More proof that CO2 levels follow temperature increases, not vice-versa. I'm sure Neapolitan will say that ice-core records have been "thoroughly debunked."

Link
You continue to insult the thinking folks here by assuming we won't perform any due diligence on the denialist swill you so often bring to these pages. The thing is, Guy LeBlanc Smith is yet another aging, low-level fake skeptic who was at one time a geologist but who is now attempting to stay relevant by peddling BS to Curry, Watts, and other fossil fuel fundees.

I find it truly remarkable that a handful of retired octogenarian geologists who haven't published in decades possess far more knowledge about the climate than the planet's thousands of active atmospheric scientists. Mind-boggling, it is...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 46. Cochise111:


Except that there are severe, record storms in the US, Europe and Australia. Just how much of the world has to be affected before it's climate? People in Sydney and Victoria, Australia are still using their heaters and Summer has already begun.


It is a record warm year in Australia- do your research before you speak.

Link
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
Quoting 46. Cochise111:

What you posted is weather, not climate. You seem unable to grasp the difference between the two...or you are attempting to confuse those unfamiliar with the science.

(The Jo Nova thing was particularly funny, btw. I wish there was something substantive in it to rebut, but there wasn't.)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Thanks Dr. Rood for the post..
And revisiting the Jet patterns you describe..

All the facts have and will point to our demise in a warming world..
It's so sad that we claim to be intelligent but hit a wall when it comes to climate..
The bell tolls for all..
Death knows no name..
Climate Suicide is our creed..
Ignorance is our claim to fame..
Deniers unite..
The bottom of the ocean awaits you..
And us who tried to warn as well..
sigh..
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Peer-review science is taking off on Twitter, but who is tweeting what and why?
9 hours ago


The traditional way of calculating the impact of a scientific article is based on the number of citations it has received in other scientific articles – it reflects impact on the scholarly community of citing authors. Peer review ensures a certain level of quality. "In the case of social networks, anyone can mention an article to anyone, there is no quality control," Haustein said.
Nonetheless, even if two-thirds of the tweeted articles were mentioned only once, Twitter is increasingly used to disseminate scientific articles. Over the three years studied, there was an increase in the proportion of articles cited on the network, reaching 20.4% in 2012. And despite the general finding regarding the number of citations, many of the articles most mentioned on Twitter are from journals such as PNAS, Science, Nature, The Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. The journal that received the most tweets was Nature, with 13,430 mentions of 1,083 papers (42%).
The researchers point out that the recent evolution of social networks offers new prospects for scientific communication. "The fact that more and more articles are tweeted is good news because it helps scientific communication. Regardless of whether non-scientists are sending this information, it proves that science is an aspect of general culture," Larivière said. Barely 15% of university graduates in Quebec are active on Twitter. The researchers would like to question scientists' resistance to the social network as a tool for communications. "Considering the correlations revealed from our sample [...], we assume that the number of mentions on the Twitter network is not a good indicator of an article's impact. This could be due to many factors, including the fact that Twitter is not yet very popular among researchers and that the viability of Twitter as a tool for scientific communication remains underestimated," the authors wrote.


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I hope that you do get a Nobel Prize

Don't hold yer breath....the CO2 will make you turn blue.
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Quoting 47. Cochise111:
More proof that CO2 levels follow temperature increases, not vice-versa. I'm sure Neapolitan will say that ice-core records have been "thoroughly debunked."

Link


I have never heard of a single climatologist make the claim that a warming climate will not initiate the release of sequestered CO2. How does this negate the effect of rising CO2 levels not initiating the process of warming the climate? Even if all of the forensic evidence shows that a warming climate always preceded higher CO2 levels it will not negate the scientific evidence that rising CO2 levels will initiate a warming climate. Try as you might, you cannot show any evidence that increasing CO2 levels will not also result in increasing the temperature of our planet, when all else remains the same. You would need to show the weakness in The Laws of Physics, Chemistry and Thermodynamics that would allow for this to be. Take heart in your pursuits to do so. There will certainly be a Nobel Prize awaiting anyone that can do so. ... Just for the record, I hope that you do get a Nobel Prize for your pursuits along this line.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
More proof that CO2 levels follow temperature increases, not vice-versa. I'm sure Neapolitan will say that ice-core records have been "thoroughly debunked."

Link
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Quoting 45. goosegirl1:


OK, I have to nibble at this. I did view the pictures. Considering that there were pictures of ski slopes, it's safe to conclude they normally get snow. Unless you live somewhere that normally does not get snow, that is a dusting. We aren't even going to mention the fact that you are still comparing weather to climate.


Except that there are severe, record storms in the US, Europe and Australia. Just how much of the world has to be affected before it's climate? People in Sydney and Victoria, Australia are still using their heaters and Summer has already begun.
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Quoting 37. Cochise111:


Looks like a little more than a dusting to me. I suppose you didn't view the pictures.


OK, I have to nibble at this. I did view the pictures. Considering that there were pictures of ski slopes, it's safe to conclude they normally get snow. Unless you live somewhere that normally does not get snow, that is a dusting. We aren't even going to mention the fact that you are still comparing weather to climate.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
Quoting 40. Neapolitan:
Precisely. Which is why a growing number of climate scientists are expecting that the next strong El Nino we see will release another burst of deep ocean heat, resulting in a year considerably warmer than even 1998 (a year which will no doubt become the new high water mark to which denialists can compare every subsequent year to claim "It hasn't warmed since 20XX"...)


I am not a scientist but I do consider that the next strong and extended El Nino event, working in conjunction with an increased solar cycle, will very likely result in an ice free Arctic Ocean during the summer months. ... All of the denial industries' puppets that reside here may bookmark this page for later use. Do be aware that I am using a common denier tactic by using my "gut instincts" to make this prediction. Unlike the deniers among us here that will use their "gut instincts" for their predictions, I strongly desire that my prediction is wrong.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting 36. Cochise111:
"The 'alarmists' may have the 'experts' but the 'skeptics' have the data."







Link
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40. Neapolitan

On his blog, here, Spencer reports that "Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2013 is +0.19 deg. C, down from +0.29 deg. C in October".

The anomaly for the northern hemisphere was +0.16oC and for the southern hemisphere was +0.23oC while for the tropics it was +0.02oC


Link


Notes on data released Dec. 4, 2013:

Compared to seasonal norms, in November the warmest area on the globe was in eastern Antartica, where the average temperature for the month was 5.32 C (almost 9.6 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The coolest area was in northwestern Greenland, where temperatures in the troposphere were 4.16 C (almost 7.5 degrees F) cooler than seasonal norms.
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"The 'alarmists' may have the 'experts' but the 'skeptics' have the data."

Followed by a dead link.
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Quoting 39. ColoradoBob1:
Leading climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has told reportingclimatescience.com that he believes the pause in global warming may be caused by long term changes in the Pacific Ocean.




Trenberth and colleague John Fasullo argue in a new scientific paper that the massive El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event that occurred in 1997 and 1998 triggered the pause. They say that the El Nino caused a large loss of heat from the deep ocean to the sea surface that resulted in a cooling of the oceans. Since then the deep ocean has been absorbing heat back from the upper ocean and so cooling the atmosphere.


Link
Precisely. Which is why a growing number of climate scientists are expecting that the next strong El Nino we see will release another burst of deep ocean heat, resulting in a year considerably warmer than even 1998 (a year which will no doubt become the new high water mark to which denialists can compare every subsequent year to claim "It hasn't warmed since 20XX"...)
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Leading climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has told reportingclimatescience.com that he believes the pause in global warming may be caused by long term changes in the Pacific Ocean.




Trenberth and colleague John Fasullo argue in a new scientific paper that the massive El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event that occurred in 1997 and 1998 triggered the pause. They say that the El Nino caused a large loss of heat from the deep ocean to the sea surface that resulted in a cooling of the oceans. Since then the deep ocean has been absorbing heat back from the upper ocean and so cooling the atmosphere.


Link
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Quoting 37. Cochise111:


Looks like a little more than a dusting to me. I suppose you didn't view the pictures.
No, I didn't; I was actually busy reading the article to which you linked to illustrate how freakish was this week's snow in Southern Australia. And, again, from that article :

"Snow is not a freak event in southern Australia in the warmer months..."

Sigh...
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Quoting 35. Neapolitan[ delusionally commenting]:
FYI: this is from the very article to which you linked:

"Snow is not a freak event in southern Australia in the warmer months. A small dusting usually appears on the higher parts of the Australian Alps at least once each summer."


Looks like a little more than a dusting to me. I suppose you didn't view the pictures.
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"The 'alarmists' may have the 'experts' but the 'skeptics' have the data."

Link
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Quoting 34. Cochise111:
[Denialist mutterings]
FYI: this is from the very article to which you linked:

"Snow is not a freak event in southern Australia in the warmer months. A small dusting usually appears on the higher parts of the Australian Alps at least once each summer."
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Quoting 32. Neapolitan:
Yes, the US is cold this week. But even the densest and dullest of denialists--a title for which there appears to be an overabundance of contestants--can look at the following temperature anomaly map and see that the blue blob over the middle of North America is in no way representative of the globe as a whole, and it's especially not representative of the Northern Hemisphere. (Note, too, the >20C anomalies in northern Alaska. On the Arctic Coast. Where the sun isn't even shining.)

cold?

So, yes, it's cold in Texas. But you should know that Texas comprises roughly 1/800th of the planet's surface.


It's snowing in Australia too. In Summer.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/sno w-falling-in-australia-in-summer-that-is-all/story -e6frflp0-1226775945701
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20. (translation)
"Why doesn't the North Atlantic Oscillation affect the Southern Hemisphere!?!

Conspiracy!?!"

Really. You just asked why a post on the North Atlantic Oscillation doesn't mention the Southern Hemisphere? Say it with me slowly...North...Okay, stop there.

Does that help?
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
Quoting 16. Cochise111:
[blather] [blather] it's cold somewhere [blather] [blather]
Yes, the US is cold this week. But even the densest and dullest of denialists--a title for which there appears to be an overabundance of contestants--can look at the following temperature anomaly map and see that the blue blob over the middle of North America is in no way representative of the globe as a whole, and it's especially not representative of the Northern Hemisphere. (Note, too, the >20C anomalies in northern Alaska. On the Arctic Coast. Where the sun isn't even shining.)

cold?

So, yes, it's cold in Texas. But you should know that Texas comprises roughly 1/800th of the planet's surface.
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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.