What Can I Say about Heat Waves? Heat Waves (5)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:27 AM GMT on November 28, 2013

Share this Blog
19
+

What Can I Say about Heat Waves? Heat Waves (5)

This blog is about a paper on extreme heat written by my student Evan Oswald and myself. I don’t usually write about my own research, but this paper poses some interesting challenges to think about heat, heat waves, climate change and public health. Or I might say, how do I explain this to my epidemiologist friends?

What we set out to do with this research was to quantify how observations from surface weather stations represent extreme heat events that are threats to human health. We started with the station observations because most often those responsible for heat warnings and those undertaking planning for climate change start with station observations in their locality. There are a lot of reasons for this choice. An important one is that these observations and any of their local peculiarities are usually well known. Hence, there is experience and the knowledge and trust that come from that experience. Once we described the behavior of all of the station observations, we had two planned paths. The first path was to see if the gridded datasets used in climate-change planning had the same behavior as the station observations. The second path was to compare the station observations to a high-resolution network of observations in a city and see how well, for example, the measurements at the airport or weather office represented the details of the city.

Of course, many researchers have looked at the station data and documented trends in heat. To earn a Ph.D., a student has to do original and independent research. There are a number of attributes that distinguish this research. Most notably, we have been working with a team of public health experts (meet Marie O’Neill), and we had a desire to use measures of environmental heat that have been found to be important in public health studies. To a meteorologist, heat might seem simple, but the human health impacts of heat are complicated. For example there is the impact of very high temperatures on those working or training outside. Another example is the threat of persistent heat, day and night, on the chronically ill who might be housebound. There is a link between heat and humidity, with many of us Southerners knowing that “it’s not the heat, but the humidity,” and not thinking about the effects of dehydration that are important in the desert Southwest. For this reason we started by looking only at temperature and not some measure of comfort such as a heat index. Then there’s a sort of obvious one, public health experts are most interested in heat effects during and around summertime, whereas to a climate scientist a “heat wave” in the winter can be as interesting and as important as a summer heat wave. There are many other complications, but I hope I have made my point, there is meaningful research to be done.

In the research reported in “A trend analysis of the1930-2010 extreme heat events in the continental U.S.”, we focused on the warm season, end of spring to the beginning of fall. We also focused on different types and characteristics of heat waves. We defined heat waves for daytime maxima and for nighttime minima. We looked at, for example, duration of heat waves, how many days did they last? Here I am going to only write about the trends that we reported in duration for three different time periods, 1930-1970, 1970-2010, and the combined time period of 1930-2010. Our study area was the continental United States.

Why these three time periods? Lot of reasons, we wanted to include the well known hot times during the 1930s, otherwise we would be accused of cheating. We did not go earlier than 1930, because we felt that the quality of the observations decreased substantially. When I was a student in the late 1970s, I remember getting excited when, say, the data for 1976 was released. Then 1977. I’d write papers about what the future would hold. Now low and behold, I have been fortunate enough to live long enough to have more than my own 30-year period. Thirty years of average temperatures is the traditional definition of “climate.” Hence, splitting things at 1970 we have two equal 40-year records, which allows us to investigate the sensitivity to which 30-year period, which “climate,” is chosen.

Lot of introduction here, so let’s get to a result. In Figure 1, I show the decadal trends at each station in the mean duration of EHEs during the 1930-1970 period. The top map shows heat events based on nighttime minimum temperatures. The bottom map shows heat events based on daytime maximum temperatures. The middle map shows events when both the maximum and minimum were elevated; that is, it did not cool off very much at night.





Figure 1: The decadal trends at each station in the mean duration of EHEs during the 1930-1970 period. The trend significance (alpha=0.10) is indicated by symbol shading. The graduated symbol groupings are based on standard deviations away from the zero value, and are different for each map. The trends in Tmin-based EHEs (top), Tmnx-based EHEs (middle) and Tmax-based EHEs (bottom) are all shown. Tmin is based on nighttime lows, Tmax on daytime highs and Tmnx require both highs and lows to be elevated.


The trends in the minimum temperature are generally positive. The exception is in the northern part of the Great Plains, right in the east-west center of the country. The largest red squares in the figure tell us that for every 2 decades we are seeing about 1 additional day of duration of very warm nighttime temperature. The bottom map for daytime minimum tells a different story. In the West there is, mostly, a warming trend in the daytime maximums. In the center of the country there is a pretty strong cooling trend. Some of my more skeptical readers and friends will go, “see there is no global warming.” In class, I would then make the assignment to describe what this figure does or does not tell us about global warming. Perhaps, I will distract a few people to carry on their arguments in the comments. It would be terribly pedantic for me to make such an assignment here, and pure hubris to expect responses.

In any case, we do see this big area of cooling of daytime maximums in the middle of the country. This was not a surprise to us, because there is growing documentation of the “Midwest Warming Hole.” This does, however, offer a challenge when discussing heat waves with my epidemiologist friends. It also might stand a little in conflict with reports such as “Heat in the Heartland,” a widely used document, for which I provided some review comments. In the next blog, I will breakdown the information in the figure a little bit, and then I will start to buildup a description that might be more usable by the public health planner.

r

Some earlier Hot Blogs

Russian Heat Wave

Heat Wave Series

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 273 - 223

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Quoting 254. MisterPerfect:

Quoting 262. Cochise111:

Quoting 268. tramp96:

Quoting 272. iceagecoming:


Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?

Diethelm, P. and M. McKee, Eur J Public Health (2009) 19 (1): 2-4. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckn139

Excerpt:

"Denialists are driven by a range of motivations. For some it is greed, lured by the corporate largesse of the oil and tobacco industries. For others it is ideology or faith, causing them to reject anything incompatible with their fundamental beliefs. Finally there is eccentricity and idiosyncrasy, sometimes encouraged by the celebrity status conferred on the maverick by the media.

Whatever the motivation, it is important to recognize denialism when confronted with it. The normal academic response to an opposing argument is to engage with it, testing the strengths and weaknesses of the differing views, in the expectations that the truth will emerge through a process of debate. However, this requires that both parties obey certain ground rules, such as a willingness to look at the evidence as a whole, to reject deliberate distortions and to accept principles of logic. A meaningful discourse is impossible when one party rejects these rules. Yet it would be wrong to prevent the denialists having a voice. Instead, we argue, it is necessary to shift the debate from the subject under consideration, instead exposing to public scrutiny the tactics they employ and identifying them publicly for what they are... "


Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 849
Regular Heat Wave for this Fall! co2 400 ppm don't really seem to be helping much!



Weather History & AlmanacDecember 6, 2013
Max Temp Min Temp
Normal (KDEN) 44 °F 18 °F
Record (KDEN) 79 °F (1939) -15 °F (1972)
Yesterday 11 °F -13 °F
Yesterday's Heating Degree Days: 66
Weather History for Denver, CO


2 degrees off record low, that'S WHAT y'all call AGW.

Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1057
Quoting 270. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

!!! You Can't Get Entangled Without a Wormhole: Physicist Finds Entanglement Instantly Gives Rise to a Wormhole


As hard as I try, I can never fully understand what the heck they are talking about . . . the science of quantum mechanics just zooms way over my head.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 268. tramp96:

Um the main stay of y'all's argument is the loss of Arctic ice
while you ignore the gains in the Antarctic. Looks like we can
put Chicken Little to bed. You should be happy for the coal
industry and the future of the human race.
Hey now we don't have to live in outer space like the
cadet from ABC claimed we would have to.
I know I'm wrong


Tramp, please read the doggone Weather Underground Climate Change website before you post another misinformed and misleading comment about climate change:

Satellites measure Antarctica is gaining sea ice but losing land ice at an accelerating rate
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 849
Quoting 265. Birthmark:

Yeah, so? I mean, even if it's true...so what?

Um the main stay of y'all's argument is the loss of Arctic ice
while you ignore the gains in the Antarctic. Looks like we can
put Chicken Little to bed. You should be happy for the coal
industry and the future of the human race.
Hey now we don't have to live in outer space like the
cadet from ABC claimed we would have to.
I know I'm wrong
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1526
Maine Gov. LePage (R) applauds ‘global warming’ for opening ice-free oil shipping routes

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) on Thursday encouraged people to look on the bright side of global warming.

At the 64rd annual Maine Transportation Conference, the governor bucked the thinking of many Republicans and admitted that the planet was getting warmer, but he said that people were thinking about it the wrong way.

“Everybody looks at the negative effects of global warming, but with the ice melting, the Northern Passage has opened up,” LePage explained, according to the Bangor Daily News. “So maybe, instead of being at the end of the pipeline, we’re now at the beginning of a new pipeline.”

RawStory.com

"Behind every Silver Lining is a Dark Cloud" - unknown
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.

Nelson Mandela

1918-2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
Quoting 262. Cochise111:

Yeah, so? I mean, even if it's true...so what?
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting 258. yoboi:
Oil Industry Offers to Pay for Removing LA Coast


Link


Funniest damned thing I have read in a long time...

Gainey indicates the huge lake would offer untold benefits for both humans and sea life.

“Hurricanes would take longer to make landfall, which means more time for preparation,” according to Gainey. “Plus, fish would have more places to get away from all the dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s a win-win scenario for everyone, courtesy of America’s oil and gas industry.”

Gainey says that instead of barrier islands, the giant saltwater lake would be formed by a string of petroleum rigs and platforms, a feature that some people might find quite pleasing.

“It would be more uniform, which is great for people with OCD,” he says. “Instead of land, water, land, water, it’s just water.”

hahahahaha! This HAS to be a parody eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Status of the Fukushima Clean-Up



"Ian Sample at the Guardian UK does a really thorough write-up of what's going on with the Fukushima Clean-up. From the article: 'Though delicate and painstaking, retrieving the fuel rod assemblies from the pools is not the toughest job the workers face. More challenging by far will be digging out the molten cores in the reactors themselves. Some of the fuel burned through its primary containment and is now mixed with cladding, steel and concrete. The mixture will have to be broken up, sealed in steel containers and moved to a nuclear waste storage site. That work will not start until some time after 2020.'"


SlashDot.org


The Guardian
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Global sea ice 600k sq km above the mean. Ouch!

Link

Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting 258. yoboi:
Oil Industry Offers to Pay for Removing LA Coast


Link



The Red Shtick = The Onion.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 251. BaltimoreBrian:
The area of fewer summer heatwaves seems similar to the area of the corn belt. Do corn fields evapotranspire much more water vapor than the native vegetation? Enough to depress temps during the daytime just a little? I have no idea if this is valid, just throwing it out there.

I did an independent study modeling project on this concept one semester. I have read that at least some of the "global warming hole" of the midwest has been tied to increasing summer dewpoint temperatures. Spring and fall temperatures are changing, but summer temperatures are more stagnant.

Corn has a very steep transpiration trend through the growing season and peaks out much higher than native grassland. Grassland transpires over a larger portion of the year, but increases/decreases at a much slower rate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 245. JohnLonergan:
UAH: Last 5 Years Still the Warmest


The UAH anomaly for the lower troposphere for November was 0.19%uFFFDC, which doesn't look impressive until you remember that their base period, 1981-2010, is quite recent.

(Really, is it too much to ask for the five major groups to get together and decide on, and use, a common base period? And for UAH and RSS to decide if their results warrant 2 significant figures (UAH, though they give 3 on Roy Spencer's blog) or 3 (RSS)? They're using the same raw data, after all, though with slightly different methodologies.)

In any case, this is still the warmest 5 years in the UAH record, though this isn't a statisically significant statement at the canonical level.


Perhaps someone could write a script that automatically grabs the latest data from each group, and applies the necessary offsets to put them to the same baseline?

I think some people just use the WoodforTrees site and apply offsets that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
258. yoboi
Oil Industry Offers to Pay for Removing LA Coast


Link
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
Quoting 253. Pipejazz:
Climate Change May Be Linked To Disease Spread In The US. [Note this is a news article.]
USA Today Link(12/4, Weise) reports that climate change is a factor in changing disease distribution patterns throughout the US. In the US, “where and when certain diseases strike is changing, and those changes are being affected by the warming, increasingly erratic climate.” The article discusses a Central Valley fungus that is infecting more people than previously, a “brain-eating amoeba” found 550 miles farther north than ever before, and diseases spread through ticks and mosquitoes affecting a larger area than in the past. The article points to three main factors for the increase in these diseases, the first of which is “overall warming,” followed by an increase in weather events considered to be extreme, and increasing human encroachment into wilderness areas.



Dengue Fever...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 253. Pipejazz:
Climate Change May Be Linked To Disease Spread In The US. [Note this is a news article.]
USA Today Link(12/4, Weise) reports that climate change is a factor in changing disease distribution patterns throughout the US. In the US, “where and when certain diseases strike is changing, and those changes are being affected by the warming, increasingly erratic climate.” The article discusses a Central Valley fungus that is infecting more people than previously, a “brain-eating amoeba” found 550 miles farther north than ever before, and diseases spread through ticks and mosquitoes affecting a larger area than in the past. The article points to three main factors for the increase in these diseases, the first of which is “overall warming,” followed by an increase in weather events considered to be extreme, and increasing human encroachment into wilderness areas.



Extermination of all humans would quickly terminate the spreading of these diseases. Don't let a do nothing Congress stand in the way of progress.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 251. BaltimoreBrian:
The area of fewer summer heatwaves seems similar to the area of the corn belt. Do corn fields evapotranspire much more water vapor than the native vegetation? Enough to depress temps during the daytime just a little? I have no idea if this is valid, just throwing it out there.


BB - up to a certain point. Eventually what happens, once a certain threshold is reached, plants stop transpiration. The stomata close to prevent the plant from desiccating. This shuts down photosynthesis - as the stomata also allow for gas exchange (CO2 in, O2 out). This is often measured in terms of "growth response" or "vegetative response".

>

Given that the planting density of row crops may be less than that if the field was fallow, I would anticipate that there is more evaporation, rather than evapotranspiration, directly from the soil than would naturally occur.

To answer your question, though, no the intensity of the heat waves is determined by other things (the global atmospheric patterns) rather than influenced by agriculture in that region.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating

By Michael Fumento
December 5, 2013

The 2013 hurricane season just ended as one of the five quietest years since 1960. But don’t expect anyone who pointed to last year’s hurricanes as “proof” of the need to act against global warming to apologize; the warmists don’t work that way.

Warmist claims of a severe increase in hurricane activity go back to 2005 and Hurricane Katrina. The cover of Al Gore’s 2009 book, “Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis,” even features a satellite image of the globe with four major hurricanes superimposed.



Yet the evidence to the contrary was there all along. Back in 2005 I and others reviewed the entire hurricane record, which goes back over a century, and found no increase of any kind. Yes, we sometimes get bad storms — but no more frequently now than in the past. The advocates simply ignored that evidence — then repeated their false claims after Hurricane Sandy last year.

And the media play along. For example, it somehow wasn’t front-page news that committed believers in man-made global warming recently admitted there’s been no surface global warming for well over a decade and maybe none for decades more. Nor did we see warmists conceding that their explanation is essentially a confession that the previous warming may not have been man-made at all.

That admission came in a new paper by prominent warmists in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics. They not only conceded that average global surface temperatures stopped warming a full 15 years ago, but that this “pause” could extend into the 2030s.

Mind you, the term “pause” is misleading in the extreme: Unless and until it resumes again, it’s just a “stop.” You don’t say a bullet-ridden body “paused” breathing.

Remarkably, that stoppage has practically been a state secret. Just five years ago, the head of the International Panel on Climate Change, the group most associated with “proving” that global warming is man-made and has horrific potential consequences, told Congress that Earth is running a “fever” that’s “apt to get much worse.” Yet he and IPCC knew the warming had stopped a decade earlier.

Those who pointed this out, including yours truly, were labeled “denialists.” Yet the IPCC itself finally admitted the “pause” in its latest report.

The single most damning aspect of the “pause” is that, because it has occurred when “greenhouse gases” have been pouring into the atmosphere at record levels, it shows at the very least that something natural is at play here. The warmists suggest that natural factors have “suppressed” the warming temporarily, but that’s just a guess: The fact is, they have nothing like the understanding of the climate that they claimed (and their many models that all showed future warming mean nothing, since they all used essentially the same false information).

If Ma Nature caused the “pause,” can’t this same lady be responsible for the warming observed earlier? You bet! Fact is, the earth was cooling and warming long before so-called GHGs could have been a factor. A warm spell ushered in the Viking Age, and many scientists believe recent warming was merely a recovery from what’s called “the Little Ice Age” that began around 1300.

Yet none of this unsettles the rush to kill debate. The Los Angeles Times has even announced that it will no longer print letters to the editor questioning man-made global warming. Had the Times been printing before Columbus, perhaps it would have banned letters saying the Earth was round.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration continues to push to reduce supposed global-warming emissions. Last month, the president even signed an executive order establishing a Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience that could dramatically expand government bureaucrats’ ability to restrict Americans’ use of their property, water and energy to reduce so-called “greenhouse gas emissions.”

Such attempted reductions in other countries have proved incredibly expensive, while barely reducing emissions. But damn the stubbornly weak economy, says President Obama, full speed ahead!

This, even as new data show that last year the US median wage hit its lowest level since 1998 and long-term unemployment is almost the highest ever.

People have a right to religious and cult beliefs within reason. But the warmists have been proved wrong time and again, each time reacting with little more than pictures of forlorn polar bears on ice floes and trying to shut down the opposition. (More bad timing: Arctic ice increased by almost a third this past year, while that at the South Pole was thicker and wider than it’s been in 35 years.)

In war and in science, the bloodiest conflicts always seem to be the religious ones. Time for the American public to say it’s no longer going to play the victim in this one.

http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof -is-evaporating/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Climate Change May Be Linked To Disease Spread In The US. [Note this is a news article.]
USA Today Link(12/4, Weise) reports that climate change is a factor in changing disease distribution patterns throughout the US. In the US, “where and when certain diseases strike is changing, and those changes are being affected by the warming, increasingly erratic climate.” The article discusses a Central Valley fungus that is infecting more people than previously, a “brain-eating amoeba” found 550 miles farther north than ever before, and diseases spread through ticks and mosquitoes affecting a larger area than in the past. The article points to three main factors for the increase in these diseases, the first of which is “overall warming,” followed by an increase in weather events considered to be extreme, and increasing human encroachment into wilderness areas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
“You are Here.” Perspective on 400 ppm CO2 in the Atmosphere

Just to provide a little perspective, here are the latest data and a graph on atmospheric carbon dioxide, with information going back 800,000 years. Present day is on the far right (“You are here”). The data come from the atmospheric monitoring program of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California and can be found here.

I’ve also noted the approximate period when homo sapiens first appeared — thought to be around 150,000 to 200,000 years ago. During all human existence, pre-industrial levels of CO2 never exceeded around 275 parts per million (ppm). They touched 400 ppm this year.

As this graph so vividly depicts, humans have now increased the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) to levels we’ve never before experienced.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
The area of fewer summer heatwaves seems similar to the area of the corn belt. Do corn fields evapotranspire much more water vapor than the native vegetation? Enough to depress temps during the daytime just a little? I have no idea if this is valid, just throwing it out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Hong Kong Central Roadside Pollution Surges to Toxic Levels

China Doubles Pace of Adding Renwables Amid Pollution Cut

The paper industry and climate change: Roll on the green revolution


Leg bone gives up oldest human DNA
Da ankle bone connected to da...leg bone!

Climate leaves European cities hesitant

* Rising Ocean Acidification Leads to Anxiety in Fish

*** Humans Threaten Wetlands' Ability to Keep Pace With Sea-Level Rise

*** Mysteries of Earth's Radiation Belts Uncovered by NASA Twin Spacecraft

*** NASA's Cassini Spacecraft Obtains Best Views of Saturn Hexagon



* Glimpsing the Infrastructure of a Gamma-Ray Burst Jet


Fledgling Supernova Remnant Reveals Neutron Star's Secrets

!!! While the Arctic Ocean Is Largely a Carbon Sink, Parts Are Also a Source of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

!!! Sea-Level Rise to Drive Coastal Flooding, Regardless of Change in Cyclone Activity

!!! Industrial Age Helps Some Coastal Regions Capture Carbon Dioxide, Surprise Finding Shows


Turning Waste Into Power With Bacteria and Loofahs


* Virtual Wall Could Stop Spread of Oil and Help Build Invisible Barrier for Oil Spills

Data Centers Can Be Cooled Down in Environmentally Friendly, Energy Efficient Ways

Silkworms Spin Colored Silks While On a 'Green' Dyed-Leaf Diet

*** First Global Snapshot of Key Coral Reef Fishes: Fishing Has Reduced Vital Seaweed Eaters by More Than 50 Percent

*** More Extreme Weather Events Likely: Climate Projections of Unparalleled Accuracy for the Whole of Europe

* Ocean Crust Could Store Many Centuries of Industrial Carbon Dioxide

*** Rapid Climate Changes at End of Last Glaciation, but With 120 Year Time Lag


Antarctic Fjords Are Climate-Sensitive Hotspots of Diversity in a Rapidly Warming Region

Texas Fishing Report
(for etxwx)

Tentative agreement signed in Klamath water wars

Report: Prepare for climate tipping points

Baffling 400,000-Year-Old Clue to Human Origins


!!! Ebb in Uranium Enrichment in U.S. Raises Questions About Nuclear Policy

Need to Know: 5 ways science makes for better wine
:)

The surprising hell of Bangladesh's toxic leather tanneries

* A Venus mission might solve mystery of moon's origin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humans Threaten Wetlands' Ability to Keep Pace With Sea-Level Rise

The threat of disappearing coastlines has alerted many to the dangers of climate change. Wetlands in particular -- with their ability to buffer coastal cities from floods and storms, and filter out pollution -- offer protections that could be lost in the future. But, say co-authors Matt Kirwan and Patrick Megonigal, higher waters aren't the key factor in wetland demise. Thanks to an intricate system of feedbacks, wetlands are remarkably good at building up their soils to outpace sea level rise. The real issue, they say, is that human structures such as dams and seawalls are disrupting the natural mechanisms that have allowed coastal marshes to survive rising seas since at least the end of the last Ice Age.

"Tidal marsh plants are amazing ecosystem engineers that can raise themselves upward if they remain healthy, and especially if there is sediment in the water," says co-author Patrick Megonigal of the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. "We know there are limits to this, and worry those limits are changing as people change the environment."

"In a more natural world, we wouldn't be worried about marshes surviving the rates of sea level rise we're seeing today," says Kirwan, the study's lead author and a geologist at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. "They would either build vertically at faster rates or else move inland to slightly higher elevations. But now we have to decide whether we'll let them."

ScienceDaily.com

Sea-Level Rise to Drive Coastal Flooding, Regardless of Change in Cyclone Activity
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
These 11 Cities May Completely Run Out Of Water Sooner Than You Think

For decades scientists have been saying that the United States' lakes, rivers and aquifers are going to have a hard time quenching the thirst of a growing population in a warming world.

A recent report from NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences does not alleviate those fears. It showed that nearly one in 10 watersheds in the U.S. is "stressed," with demand for water exceeding natural supply -- a trend that, researchers say, appears likely to become the new normal.

"By midcentury, we expect to see less reliable surface water supplies in several regions of the United States," said Kristen Averyt, associate director for science at CIRES and one of the authors of the study. %u201CThis is likely to create growing challenges for agriculture, electrical suppliers and municipalities, as there may be more demand for water and less to go around.%u201D

And a recent Columbia University Water Center study on water scarcity in the U.S. showed that it's not just climate change that is putting stress on water supply, it's also a surging population. Since 1950 there has been a 99 percent increase in population in the U.S. combined with a 127 percent increase in water usage.

"All cities and all businesses require water, yet in many regions, they need more water than is actually available %u2014 and that demand is growing," said Upmanu Lall, director, Columbia Water Center said to Business Insider. "The new study reveals that certain areas face exposure to drought, which will magnify existing problems of water supply and demand."

Cities include Miami, Houston, Atlanta, San Antonio and Washington D.C.

HuffingtonPost.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Climate Scientist: 2 Degrees of Warming Too Much

Famed climate scientist and activist James Hansen has said it before, and he'll say it again: Two degrees of warming is too much.

International climate negotiators agreed in the Copenhagen Accord, a global agreement on climate change that took place at the 2009 United Nations' Climate Change Conference, that warming this century shouldn't increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But in a new paper published in the open-access journal PLOS ONE, Hansen and a cadre of co-authors from a wide array of disciplines argue that even 2 degrees is too much, and would "subject young people, future generations and nature to irreparable harm," Hansen wrote in an accompanying essay distributed to reporters.

The new study is a departure from the typical climate science paper, both for the wide variety of fields represented in the list of co-authors, which includes economist Jeffrey Sachs, as well as for the policy implications it raises, something climate scientists tend to shy away from. The authors also plainly state that humanity has a moral obligation to future generations, the type of statement scientists also tend to avoid.

Hansen and Sachs met with reporters here Tuesday (Dec. 3) in Columbia University's Low Library to discuss their study and their thoughts on the ongoing — and so far, largely ineffectual — effort to come up with a global plan to combat the problem of climate change and scale back emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.

"It seems like we're just charging ahead, burning any and every fossil fuel," Hansen told reporters. "There seems to be no real effort to get off that business-as-usual path."


LiveScience.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
How the World Ends
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
UAH: Last 5 Years Still the Warmest


The UAH anomaly for the lower troposphere for November was 0.19C, which doesn't look impressive until you remember that their base period, 1981-2010, is quite recent.

(Really, is it too much to ask for the five major groups to get together and decide on, and use, a common base period? And for UAH and RSS to decide if their results warrant 2 significant figures (UAH, though they give 3 on Roy Spencer's blog) or 3 (RSS)? They're using the same raw data, after all, though with slightly different methodologies.)

In any case, this is still the warmest 5 years in the UAH record, though this isn't a statisically significant statement at the canonical level.

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Peeling Back the Ice of Antarctica



Wired.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Conservative group ALEC pushes stealth tax on homeowners who install solar panels

An alliance of corporations and conservative activists is mobilising to penalise homeowners who install their own solar panels - casting them as "freeriders" - in a sweeping new offensive against renewable energy, the Guardian has learned.

Over the coming year, the American Legislative Exchange Council (Alec) will promote legislation with goals ranging from penalising individual homeowners and weakening state clean energy regulations, to blocking the Environmental Protection Agency, which is Barack Obama%u2019s main channel for climate action.

Details of Alec's strategy to block clean energy development at every stage - from the individual rooftop to the White House - are revealed as the group gathers for its policy summit in Washington this week.

About 800 state legislators and business leaders are due to attend the three-day event, which begins on Wednesday with appearances by the Wisconsin senator Ron Johnson and the Republican budget guru and fellow Wisconsinite Paul Ryan.

Other Alec speakers will be a leading figure behind the recent government shutdown, US senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and the governors of Indiana and Wyoming, Mike Pence and Matt Mead.

For 2014, Alec plans to promote a suite of model bills and resolutions aimed at blocking Barack Obama from cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and state governments from promoting the expansion of wind and solar power through regulations known as Renewable Portfolio Standards.

RawStory.com (The Guardian)



Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
Quoting 222. Pipejazz:
It seems that the Heartland Institute (HI) may be lying (again). The American Meteorological Society (AMA) blog reports that the HI sent out an email that "looks" as if it was sent out by the AMA. No wonder denier and liar rhyme.
Link

I wonder if that first comment from "James" is the same James from HI?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As most of us already know, the time we have for any mitigation efforts to prove effective is quickly coming to end. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature I do not take this at face value that 2C will be too far for us to recover from. I compare what we have now with less 1C of warming and then mentally project ahead to imagine 2C of warming. Should we already be losing so much Arctic sea ice and world glacial mass then it is easy for me to see what the albedo effect alone will be with the ice loss caused by another 1C of warming. .... I only hope that I imagine too much with this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Experts say the IPCC underestimated future sea level rise

t looks like past IPCC predictions of sea level rise were too conservative; things are worse than we thought. That is the takeaway message from a new study out in Quaternary Science Reviews and from updates to the IPCC report itself. The new study, which is also discussed in depth on RealClimate, tries to determine what our sea levels will be in the future. What they found isn't pretty.

Predicting of sea level rise is a challenging business. While we have good information about what has happened in the past, we still have trouble looking into the future. So, what do we know? Well it is clear that sea levels began to rise about 100 years ago. This rise coincided with increasing global temperatures.

What causes sea level to rise? Really three things. First, water expands as it heats. Second, glaciers melt and water flows to the oceans. Third, the large ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica can melt and the liquid water enters the ocean; often the water transfer is added by calving at the ice fronts which result in icebergs that float into the ocean. In the past, much of the sea level rise was related to the first cause (thermal expansion). Now, however, more and more sea level rise is being caused by melting ice.

But this is all the past. What we really want to know is, how much will sea level rise in the future? There are a number of ways to predict the future. First, we can look at the deep past and see how sea level changed with Earth temperature long ago.

A second way to predict the future is through computational models. These models are computer programs which create a virtual-reality of the Earth. These virtual reality models are very useful because they allow scientists to play "what if" scenarios; but, they have their weaknesses as well. One of their weaknesses is that they don't necessarily capture all of the phenomena which cause sea level rise. It is believed by most scientists that the computer programs are too conservative.

How does this all relate to the current study? Well the authors took a different approach. They decided to ask the scientists themselves. What do they think sea level rise will be by 2100 and 2300 under different greenhouse gas scenarios? The authors found 360 sea-level experts through a literature survey. They then worked to find contact information for these scientists and finally, they sent a questionnaire. After receiving 90 expert judgments from 18 countries, the results were tallied. So, what do experts think?



Sea level rise over the period 2000–2100 for high and low warming scenarios. The ranges show the average numbers given across all the experts. For comparison we see the NOAA projections of December 2012 (dashed lines) and the new IPCC projections (bars on the right).

Read More in The Guardian
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Documents Reveal ALEC's Looming Attacks on Clean Energy, Fracking Laws, Greenhouse Gas Regulations

The Guardian has another must-read piece about the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) today, this time laying bare its anti-environmental agenda for 2014.

The paper obtained ALEC's 2013 Annual Meeting Policy Report, which revealed that ALEC — dubbed a "corporate bill mill" for the statehouses by the Center for Media and Democracy — plans more attacks on clean energy laws, an onslaught of regulations pertaining to hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and waging war against Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas regulations.

"Over the coming year, [ALEC] will promote legislation with goals ranging from penalising individual homeowners and weakening state clean energy regulations, to blocking the Environmental Protection Agency, which is Barack Obama's main channel for climate action," explained The Guardian. "Details of ALEC's strategy to block clean energy development at every stage, from the individual rooftop to the White House, are revealed as the group gathers for its policy summit in Washington this week."

The documents also reveal ALEC's boasting of introducing myriad "model resolutions" nationwide in support of fast-tracking approval for the northern half of Transcanada's Keystone XL pipeline, along with another "model bill" — the "Transfer of Public Lands Act" already introduced in Utah — set to expropriate federally-owned public lands to oil, gas and coal companies.

Read more at DeSmogBlog ...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Quoting 226. JohnLonergan:
From The Guardian:

Australia's spring was the warmest on record, climate records show

The spring of 2013 has been Australia's warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.43C (set in 2006) by 0.14C. Daytime maximum temperatures were also the highest on record, coming in 2.07C above average and 0.24C above the previous record (also set in 2006), while overnight minimum temperatures were the fourth-warmest on record.

The warmth was most dramatic in September, which saw a mean temperature anomaly of 2.75C, setting a new monthly record by more than a degree. October was also a very warm month, 1.43C above average. Temperatures during November were closer to normal, 0.52C above average, but were still warm enough to complete a record spring.

The warmth was extensive, with virtually the entire country experiencing above-average mean temperatures for the spring. It was the warmest spring on record over an area covering most of western Queensland (sufficient to give Queensland its warmest spring on record), and extending into the eastern interior of the Northern Territory.

Records were also set on the west coast around Perth, on the east coast around Sydney, and on parts of the Nullarbor. The spring ranked in the 10 warmest on record over 83% of the country.

Strong westerly winds were a feature of the prevailing weather over southern parts of the continent during September and October. This brought unusually wet weather to western Tasmania, southwest Victoria, and southwest Western Australia %u2014 regions that are exposed to maritime westerlies.



Read more at The Guardian ...


November set all sorts of low temp records in the US. One of the comments to the below link is from a guy in Sydney, Australia still using his heater up until a few days ago, and it's now officially summer there. Makes it hard to believe this story.

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
AGW is killing Britain with freezing weather:

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Russian scientist predicts little ice age in thirty years:

Link
Member Since: February 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
From Hotwhopper, the effect of carbonic acid gas is discussed by Ernest Willington Skeats in the Evening News (Sydney, NSW) on Tuesday 30 March 1909

Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
216

we are at almost a "static" temp for the pat 17 yrs.


Really, It don't look like it here
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Quoting 228. schwankmoe:


i haven't gotten a christmas bonus in 11 months. what's the deal with that?


I'm with you. Experiencing the coldest December in
TWELVE MONTHS!!


(I'm not kidding, some newscasters really do hype.. the
coldest winter weather since ... last winter)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems dat un went sailing thru the goalpost, but jus missed a single mind.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127371
Quoting 229. yoboi:


Hope ya get one......


but it's been 11 months without one. clearly, that means no more christmas bonuses ever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. yoboi
Quoting 228. schwankmoe:


i haven't gotten a christmas bonus in 11 months. what's the deal with that?


Hope ya get one......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2322
Quoting 216. yoboi:



I am glad we are at almost a "static" temp for the pat 17 yrs......whew.....


i haven't gotten a christmas bonus in 11 months. what's the deal with that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 213. JohnLonergan:
New Report Says Solar Will Achieve Near-Global Competitiveness With Natural Gas By 2025



Solar power may be well on its way to near-global cost competitiveness with natural gas by 2025, according to new numbers from Lux Research. And rather than acting purely as market competitors, the two energy sources could form a symbiosis with the construction of hybrid plants that make use of both.
Lux Research used a “bottom-up system cost model” to analyze the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar, natural gas, and hybrid systems using both sources. In plain terms, the LCOE is the cost per kilowatt-hour of a given energy source, accounting for all the costs involved across its life cycle. Lux’s analysis covered 10 global regions through 2030, and ran through three different scenarios: a “Low Gas Price Scenario,” a “High Gas Price Scenario,” and a “Likely Gas Price Scenario.”
The result was that under both the Likely and High scenarios, the LCOE of solar — unsubsidized by any government program — met or dropped below natural gas’ LCOE in virtually every region of the world by 2025.




This is the only way alternative fuels will become competitive... When the price nears that of fossil fuels (or fossil fuels plus negative externalities) and people switch. (Possibly with a little goverment encouragement)

If this happens people WILL switch...and the fossil fule companies that people believe are so evil will go down the same way railroad and other companies did (unless they become competitive).

Reaching a scenario of using viable and cost effective unlimited fuel supplies is something that can't happen soon enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From The Guardian:

Australia's spring was the warmest on record, climate records show

The spring of 2013 has been Australia's warmest on record. Mean temperatures for the season were 1.57C above the 1961-1990 average, surpassing the previous record of 1.43C (set in 2006) by 0.14C. Daytime maximum temperatures were also the highest on record, coming in 2.07C above average and 0.24C above the previous record (also set in 2006), while overnight minimum temperatures were the fourth-warmest on record.

The warmth was most dramatic in September, which saw a mean temperature anomaly of +2.75C, setting a new monthly record by more than a degree. October was also a very warm month, 1.43C above average. Temperatures during November were closer to normal, 0.52C above average, but were still warm enough to complete a record spring.

The warmth was extensive, with virtually the entire country experiencing above-average mean temperatures for the spring. It was the warmest spring on record over an area covering most of western Queensland (sufficient to give Queensland its warmest spring on record), and extending into the eastern interior of the Northern Territory.

Records were also set on the west coast around Perth, on the east coast around Sydney, and on parts of the Nullarbor. The spring ranked in the 10 warmest on record over 83% of the country.

Strong westerly winds were a feature of the prevailing weather over southern parts of the continent during September and October. This brought unusually wet weather to western Tasmania, southwest Victoria, and southwest Western Australia — regions that are exposed to maritime westerlies.



Read more at The Guardian ...
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3123
Here is a link to the paper some were looking for. It is from 2003. http://users.df.uba.ar/sgil/physics_paper_doc/pap ers_phys/termo/global_warming_epa2k3.pdf

This may be a newer update: http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/climate/i ntro_background.jsp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 214. overwash12:
California? Lots of veggies there. lol


And freeze risk most winters. Maybe realized in the next few days this winter.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 273 - 223

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Top of Page

About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.